####018006516#### FXUS61 KALY 041045 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 645 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast will provide continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...Main change was to increase PoPs across the western Adirondacks into this morning based on current radar trends showing scattered light showers associated with a weak disturbance. Observations indicating only Trace to 0.01" amounts. These showers should dissipate by later this morning though and mid/upper level ridging becomes re-established. The rest of the area should remain dry. Temperatures are in the 40s to lower 50s to start the day. .PREV DISCUSSION[0326]...Other than a few light showers or sprinkles across the far NW Adirondacks early this morning, dry conditions will persist. Mid level clouds continue to gradually increase from the west. Latest trends in guidance indicate surface high pressure remaining positioned along the New England through this evening. Ridging aloft will also be in place during this time. So arrival of showers have been slowed even further, with the day/evening now expected to be mainly dry. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area. Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns. Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys. High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas. Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday, as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through this evening, although a few patches of MVFR/IFR Cigs will remain possible at KPSF through 13Z/Sat. MVFR Cigs should then develop after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late through today. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 1500-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun. Some spotty light rain may develop at KGFL, KALB and KPOU after 08Z/Sun, with better chances closer to and especially after 12Z/Sun. Light/variable winds will become southeast to south winds and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning and continue into tonight. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time. Outlook... Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL ####018003328#### FXUS62 KTBW 041045 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 645 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 An upper level ridge is currently extending from Florida north into eastern Canada, while surface high pressure over the Atlantic ridges across northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will hold through the weekend and early next week, then shift south during the middle to later portion of the week. Southeasterly/easterly flow the next few days will become more southerly during the second half of the week, with daily sea breeze circulations turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. Enough moisture will be present to allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. Moisture will increase slightly on Sunday, leading to higher rain chances, then drier air will start to shift in through the first half of the work week and limit rain chances. Otherwise, the stacked ridging will lead to building temperatures, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 90s over the interior Wednesday through Friday. Despite the warm temperatures, heat index values are forecast to remain around 100 or less, and will not approach local Heat Advisory thresholds (108). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions persist across the terminals. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will develop later this afternoon (after 21z). A few of these showers/storms could impact the terminals. For now, have only mentioned VCSH at KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KLAL. Will continue to monitor conditions throughout the day to evaluate the need of VCTS/TSRA in the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 10 FMY 90 70 90 70 / 30 30 40 20 GIF 91 70 90 69 / 30 20 50 10 SRQ 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10 BKV 91 65 90 65 / 20 20 40 10 SPG 87 75 87 74 / 20 20 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close ####018005287#### FXUS63 KDDC 041045 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 545 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected Monday afternoon and evening, mainly east of a WaKeeney to Ashland line. - The greatest uncertainty regarding Monday's severe weather event is timing of the onset of dangerous storms and how far west initial high-end severe storms will develop. - Most of the NWS Dodge City area of responsibility will most likely be clear of severe weather risk by early evening Monday as storms move east deeper into central and south central Kansas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread precipitation event -- the first good soaking rain over a large portion of our forecast area in quite some time -- continued in the pre-dawn hours across much of southwest into central and south central KS. Some initial automated gauge reports were showing three-quarters to a little over an inch of rain right where we needed it most across quite a few of our counties along/west of U283 and along/south of U50. The rain will continue to pull away from our region this morning leaving in its wake a cooler air mass and remnant low cloud. The past few runs of the HRRR model have shown a bit longer period broken-overcast stratus cloud across the mid section of our forecast area (centered around DDC), keeping temperatures from rising much above the mid/upper 50s this afternoon. The latest official forecast calls for mid 60s for just about the entire forecast area, but some of this may need to be lowered if the clouds hang on longer like the latest runs of the HRRR suggest. Going into tonight and early Sunday morning, we will watch for another southern jet streak nosing into West Texas and western Oklahoma, which will foster another round of precipitation clipping our southeastern counties adjacent Oklahoma state line, which is where highest POPs will be (20-30%) in both the Tonight and Sunday 12-hr periods. Low level winds will veer around from east to southeast on Sunday as the much advertised Monday storm draws closer to the Rockies, inducing lower MSLP across Colorado late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Clearly, the focus of this time frame will be Monday's impressive storm and the likelihood of a volatile severe weather outbreak across much of the Central Plains late in the day and Monday Night. Not much has changed in the overall forecast meteorological setting for Monday other than the fact that there still remains great uncertainty in when initial dryline storms will develop (early vs. mid vs. late afternoon) and how far west the dryline will be when the first storms do develop. The ECMWF shows the dryline just east of DDC at 21Z Monday with 3-h QPF in the 21-24Z beginning just east of DDC. The high-resolution ECMWF deterministic run depicts multiple county-scale streaking of QPF in a southwest to northeast manner in the 3-h QPF field, which in classic spring severe weather patterns, is the numerical weather prediction highly suggesting individual severe local storm tracks (most likely supercells). Nearly all models show a classic "sickle" shape hodograph in the 0-2km AGL layer across a large swath of the warm, moist sector in Kansas into northern Oklahoma where surface dewpoints will be in the 64 to 68F range. A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including high-end hail storms and long-lived significant tornadoes, is appearing more and more likely. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the areal coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk to include over half of the state of Kansas, including our eastern counties from Hays down to Coldwater and points east. This latest outlook also includes a large area of 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather -- defined by 75+ mph damaging wind gust, 2" or larger hail, and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). Any outdoor interests Monday afternoon and evening should have a plan of action in place in case storms threaten your activity(ies)/venues. Once we get Monday's storm out of the way, we will be entering a fairly long break in severe weather risk, perhaps going well into the following week of May 12th as cooler and drier air will encompass much of the eastern half of the country. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The last of the rain cleared LBL and DDC terminals just prior to the onset of this TAF period, but remaining low stratus cloud will keep flight category MVFR with 1000 to 2500 foot BKN-OVC. The stratus will slowly erode by late morning, with all terminals expected to be VFR by no later than midday. North wind will gradually decrease in speed down to around 10 knots by late afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid ####018003544#### FXUS65 KGGW 041046 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 446 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight. - Unusually warm conditions are expected on Sunday, but the southeast winds will be quite strong, with gusts into the 40s in many places. - Another round of rain is expected starting Sunday night through at least Thursday. Ranges are looking on track to be around a inch and a half to 2 inches for many locations with moderate confidence(50-70%). WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Storm system that brought the brisk cool conditions today will pull into eastern Canada from western Ontario and allow winds to go light and variable while skies will clear. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s for most places. Sunshine will return Saturday and will be a pleasant day with light winds. However, winds will increase from the southeast as strong low pressure moves in from the Pacific NW. Look for increasing and thickening clouds Saturday Night with rain showers moving in Sunday Night. A steadier rain will move into parts of the area Monday but a dry slot may limit heavy rain potential next week. Models are still not specific on timing and amounts yet. (from previous discussion) There is a small chance (5-20%) that some of these thunderstorms could become severe, but with overnight convection being the main periods of interest there will be no insolation and severe weather will likely not occur. Will need to monitor SKEW- Ts in these periods as they get within CAM model ranges for further scrutiny. Tuesday through Thursday night: Closed low will migrate northeastward and start to cut off from the warm air. However, this just means that most of the convective elements will become mainly stratiform. Main problem here onward is that positioning of the low is in question with a range for its center position from South Dakota all the way up to southern Saskatchewan. The low looks to generate a trowal in most models which will bring a heavy amount of rain to areas directly under or behind it. The majority of the ensembles place this over eastern Montana which could easily generate 1 to 2 inches to the area it hits. This feature has remained consistent over the last 48 hours raising confidence to moderate(50-70%). Friday onward: A new ridge looks to move into the area which will raise temps and dry conditions out. TFJ && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1030Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR DISCUSSION: Clouds will diminish this morning with a deck hanging on just northeast of KOLF-KSDY. This afternoon will feature mainly clear skies with increasing high to mid clouds tonight. LLWS: Some low level wind shear will be possible (20-50% chance) across northeast Montana from 07-14Z tonight, but it looks to only impact KSDY and/or KGDV for a couple hours at this time. WIND: Light and variable through the morning. Becoming southerly at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Then veering SE to E and increasing to 5 to 15 kts this evening through tonight. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow ####018010026#### FXUS61 KAKQ 041048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: -Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers. Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph. Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s. Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: -A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps. -There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week. An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 12z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs continue to overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the morning with perhaps some improvement this afternoon (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through this morning. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning. - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft. With yesterday's backdoor cold front now well S of the local area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4 ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later today, these headlines may need an extension. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 440 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding. - Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning. Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be extended as well). It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/SW LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM/ERI MARINE...LKB/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018006074#### FXUS61 KGYX 041048 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 648 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through today, with increasing onshore flow and humidity. Thickening clouds, cooler temperatures, and rain showers are expected by Sunday as a frontal system approaches New England. Clearing is likely not coming until Monday behind a cold front. Warmer and sunnier conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 648 AM Update...Quick tune up of sky coverage this morning, along with temperature trends through the dawn hours. Little change otherwise. Previously... An upper level ridge moves toward the East Coast while surface high pressure centered near Labrador this morning builds south into the Gulf of Maine today... resulting in another fair weather day, albeit with increasing onshore flow and associated clouds. Signs of increasing low- and mid- level moisture associated with this trend are evident even this morning as patchy ground fog has developed in most places... and a mid- level stratus deck has built over portions of the foothills, where humid NE mid- level flow is dammed against the mountains. The trend for today will be to mix out low clouds and fog initially... but build back some stratocu by the afternoon, mainly over the interior of Maine beneath mixed cirrus decks. The ridge overhead will keep us dry, however it will be cooler than yesterday especially at the coast where temperatures may not or may just barely make it out of the 40s. The warmest and sunniest spots will likely be in the Connecticut and Lower Merrimack River Valleys, with highs in the mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure extending offshore of the Maritimes combined with an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes continues to support southeast flow off the Gulf of Maine... with low clouds filling into an overcast sky for most places tonight, except for the upper Connecticut River Valley which benefits from the Whites blocking humid onshore flow. Some fog and drizzle are likely to develop too, mainly in southern New Hampshire into southwest Maine where low- level humidity will be at its highest. One of the bigger questions for Sunday will be how efficiently we'll be able to mix out low stratus, if at all, before a pre- frontal trough brings a moisture axis and associated rainfall across the region. Model trends have been fairly steady with this wave delivering about 0.2-0.4" for most places... locally higher, lower elsewhere... Sunday afternoon and overnight. While ceilings are forecast to lift a bit during the day, hires guidance coming into view suggests a fair amount of overcast to persist. Thus between clouds and onshore flow, temperatures will be limited to the low- or mid-50s... or 40s, nearby to the coast and if ceilings remain low. A building southeasterly breeze will make conditions feel a bit more raw as well. Rain will exit east Sunday night with drier air pushing in aloft, however at the surface conditions will remain humid with fog and low ceilings likely. Winds will gradually pull more southerly and southwesterly, which will at least cut some of the maritime influence down by Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Unsettled weather expected until a cold front passes Monday morning. High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the latter part of Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as broad low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Details:Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early Monday morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by mid morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying through the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures will be in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s possible for southern NH and into southern Maine's interior. Tuesday follows up as warm and dry, before another period of unsettled weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are likely overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions, and have tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a chance of rain to close out the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Spotty/low confidence IFR/LIFR in FG possible this morning... clearing to VFR today with increasing light SE or E flow. Brief MVFR decks possible for interior ME (AUG) this afternoon. Widespread restrictions expected to develop tonight... with MVFR/IFR VSBY, CIGs except at KHIE which likely remains VFR. Some improvement possible on Sun, however increasing RA chances bring restrictions again during afternoon/evening. Low CIGs, possibly low VSBY persist at least along the coast into early Mon. Long Term...Ceilings should improve to VFR at all terminals into Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Unsettled weather likely brings more restrictions from mid-week, onward. && .MARINE... Short Term...NE flow 10-20 kts today turns SE by early Sunday with increasing potential for fog, then rain later in the day and overnight into early Monday. A few gusts near 25 kts are possible, with waves 3-5 ft, though conditions will remain predominantly below SCA thresholds. Long Term...The cold front will pass over the waters Monday morning, bringing better vis conditions through Tuesday. Conditions should remain below SCA criteria with the frontal passage through at least Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Casey SHORT TERM...Casey LONG TERM...Cornwell ####018005517#### FXUS61 KILN 041049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region into the middle part of next week, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level short wave energy will lift northeast across the mid Ohio Valley through the day. Forcing isn't terribly great, but in a moist airmass, this has been enough to maintain scattered shower activity across southeast portions of our area so far this morning. Flow aloft is very light, so this activity will very slowly pivot up across mainly eastern portions of our area through mid morning. As we head through late morning and into this afternoon, some weak instability will develop as afternoon highs push into the mid to possibly upper 70s. This will allow for a continuation of occasional showers along with a chance for thunderstorms. Given the light flow and general lack of deeper shear, the overall severe threat will be low. However, with PWs up around 1.5 inches and the slow storm movement, some heavier downpours will be possible today. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As we lose the daytime heating and the mid level short wave moves off to our northeast, expect an overall decreasing trend in pcpn this evening and into the overnight hours. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower 60s. Another mid level short wave will move east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. An associated weak surface wave will move across the southern Great Lakes while a trailing weak cold front moves east across our area during the day on Sunday. This will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern portions of our fa Sunday afternoon. With a little better deep layer shear, a few strong to severe storms may be possible across our eastern areas Sunday afternoon. The main severe threat would be damaging winds. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s northwest to around 80 degrees in our southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong surface high over MI will push drier air into the northern Ohio Valley behind a departing cold front. A s/w undercutting a mean H5 ridge will move east and into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The earlier cold front will have draped w-e through southern CWA Monday, and then begin to lift northeastward as a warm front overnight. The region will be warm-sectored on Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected with daytime heating. Earlier showers with embedded thunderstorms on Monday/overnight look to be triggered by the surface front. Tuesday night, warm sector showers will scatter out as a convective line works in from the west ahead of a H5 s/w and trailing the exiting upper ridge. This looks to be behaving as a cold front, but the only front mildly shown in guidance is a shift from the highest moisture on Tuesday to slightly drier air (back to what has been seen) overnight. A brief drying on Wednesday will change after daytime as strong southwest flow brings a continued feed of deep moisture that will be wrung out overnight. This will be the most prominent rainfall period in the extended forecast. While some showers may linger into Thursday/Thursday evening ahead of a H5 trough, the region should be fairly worked-over enough to where upper level lift will not overcome an expected stable airmass behind Wed night's rain. Low chance pops continue through the forecast but the overall end of the period beginning Thursday evening looks to be dry and cooler. Cooler to the extent that from Thursday night through Saturday it will be near seasonal normals. Beginning with a brief cooling on Monday, temperatures will warm through Wednesday and cool through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak surface low pressure system will lift northeast across the area this morning. This will lead to fairly widespread showers across central Ohio over the next few hours with isolated showers elsewhere across the area. Cigs continue to vary significantly this morning, ranging from LIFR in spots to VFR in other areas. Will continue to hedge with prevailing MVFR cigs through the morning hours along with some tempo IFR cigs. Areas of MVFR BR will also persist through the morning hours. As we begin to destabilize this afternoon, cigs will trend up into VFR and scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected. With a moist airmass in place, some locally heavy downpours will be possible with some of the thunderstorms this afternoon. This activity should taper off heading into this evening with mainly dry conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. However, cigs will trend back down into MVFR later tonight and into Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL