####018009200#### FXUS62 KRAH 030650 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area this morning will shift to our southeast later today. A surface backdoor front will drop into northeast North Carolina tonight then stall out, holding over North Carolina through Saturday before slowly washing out. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region from late today through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Friday... A last largely dry day before we start trending wetter, esp W. Very weak surface troughing sits over the W Piedmont of NC currently, capped by the mid-upper level ridge axis extending over the central and eastern Carolinas. PWs remain on the low side, under 1" except in our far S (where there is a risk for some stratus and fog for a few hours early this morning). With stable and dry mid levels, we'll again be dry today, albeit with increasing high then mid level clouds, along with a few high-based afternoon cu, as a mid level perturbation/remnant MCV currently over the Mid South shifts eastward into our area. Low level thicknesses will again be well above normal, with models showing values several meters higher than yesterday when we reached the upper 80s to lower 90s. The gradual increase and thickening of clouds will curb heating slightly, but we should still be able to reach the upper 80s to around 90, perhaps a few lower 90s east, close to but generally below record highs (see climate section below). As the steadily dampening wave shifts E of the Appalachians, clouds will continue to spread in tonight from the W, with PWs near or above 1.5" spreading into at least the Piedmont and Sandhills. CAPE is minimal and elevated, and the flattening wave and weak mid level flow will provide little in the way of dynamic forcing for ascent. but the deepening moisture and a couple hundred J/kg will be enough to support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm overnight, in the Triad this evening then spreading into the rest of the Piedmont after midnight. In addition, models are in good agreement that the backdoor front now stretching across the Mid Atlantic region will continue to push southward into our area late tonight, bringing an area of stratus spreading in from the N and NE, and increasing low level mass convergence along this backdoor front may prompt additional light rain areas in its vicinity. Lows from around 60 the mid 60s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Friday... Confidence is high on increasing chances for showers and a few storms, although no one will see rain the entire day, and pinpointing the location and motion of what should be shower/storm clusters is challenging. PWs will continue to rise, with models indicating a swath of 1.5-1.75" values surging up through central NC, in the 90th percentile and even nearing daily records. This will occur in tandem with increasing low level moisture flux drawing Atlantic moisture into our area. As the backdoor front settles further into the area Sat morning, followed by a very gradual weakening and washing out, the considerable stratus over much of the area, esp N and W sections, will hinder heating and destabilization until it retreats and breaks up later in the day. And our large scale dynamic forcing for ascent will be poor, given the weak mid- upper level flow, but we may still feel the effects of MCVs emanating from today's Plains convection as it shifts into our area late Sat through Sat night. All of this supports scattered to numerous clusters of showers and storms, particularly in areas W of I-95 where moisture will be deepest, with the highest pops in the Triad and perhaps a secondary focus along the weakening backdoor frontal zone. The storm threat will be limited, given the weak deep layer bulk shear and modest CAPE, but a few storms will remain possible mainly in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist overnight with further moistening of the low levels with confluent 925 mb southerly flow strengthening to 15-25 kts with both Atlantic and Gulf taps. While areally averaged rainfall amounts aren't likely to be high, given the anomalously high PW and somewhat slow storm motion with cell mergers possible, isolated areas could see local rainfall totals that could present minor urban flooding issues, esp in the Triad region, despite the recent dry weather. With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, expect highs from the mid 70s N and W to lower-mid 80s SE. Lows in the 60s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 250 AM Friday... ...Elevated Rain Chances Will Linger Through Monday... ...Heat Returns Middle Part of Next Week... Sunday and Sunday night: The stalled sfc front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. Subtle upper disturbances coupled with the development of weak to moderate buoyancy during the afternoon will act upon the elevated PWATS (150- 160% of normal)in place over the region to support afternoon showers and storms. Shear is generally less than 20 kts, so the threat for organized severe storms is near zero. The moist PWATs and associated mostly cloudy skies and rain chances should temper afternoon temps. Highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Under mostly cloudy skies, mild overnight temps in the 60s. Monday and Monday night: A compact shortwave trough over the Mid MS Valley will become increasingly sheared as it crosses the central and southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and through the Mid Atlantic States Monday night. PWATs are forecast to increase to ~200% of normal as the trough and associated DPVA moves through the area. As such, expect another healthy uptick in diurnal coverage and PoPs Monday afternoon and into the evening. Shear remains weak. Thus, the threat for severe storms remains low. Low-level thicknesses are on par or slightly higher than Sunday. Highs 80-85. Lows in the 60s. Tuesday through Thursday: Rain chances will lessen during this period, with weak disturbances moving atop the ridge providing the primary focus for scattered shower and storms, mainly across northern portion of the forecast area. The main weather headlines will be the return of the heat during the second half of the work week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to top out in the mid/upper 80s north lower 90s over interior and southern portions of the forecast area. Expect very warm nights as well, potentially record warm, with lows 65 to 70. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 AM Friday... Except for a chance of MVFR vsbys/cigs in the SE including FAY 08z- 12z this morning, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least this afternoon across all central NC terminals, but with gradually increasing high and mid clouds. Starting after 21z, an upper level disturbance along with daytime heating will prompt isolated to scattered showers and a few storms pushing into the west (INT/GSO), with these chances lasting through the overnight hours, however VFR conditions will still be dominant. However, starting after 04z tonight, a backdoor front dropping into far N and NE sections will bring a good chance for IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys into northern areas, along and behind the front. However, these adverse aviation conditions should hold N of the primary terminals until after the end of the TAF valid period at 06z Sat. Looking beyond 06z Sat, as the backdoor front settles southward well into central NC, sub-VFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread south through most of the area 06z-12z Sat. As the front slowly lifts back north and washes out, conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Sat from SE to NW, with the Triad (INT/GSO) remaining sub-VFR well into the afternoon. But the chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will be high, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, Sat through Mon, particularly each afternoon and evening, with locally gusty winds in and near storms, and a chance for patchy early-morning fog areawide. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield ####018005008#### FXUS62 KMFL 030651 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 251 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo. Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass, which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of SoFlo. The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous days. Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the west coast of SoFlo. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon. Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as the easterly flow push them inland. Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few showers may be possible near the east coast Friday morning but feel probs are too low to explicitly mention in this issuance. Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts range out of the east. && .BEACHES... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Breezy easterly flow will keep an elevated risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches through early next week. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 73 84 74 / 10 10 30 30 West Kendall 85 70 86 70 / 10 10 30 30 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 10 10 30 30 Homestead 84 73 84 72 / 10 10 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 83 74 / 10 20 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 30 40 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 73 / 10 10 30 30 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 71 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 84 72 84 73 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 89 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...Rizzuto ####018003391#### FXUS64 KOHX 030652 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 152 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers are ongoing across the area thanks to a weakening shortwave to our west. That wave will slowly move through the area this morning and lift northeast of the plateau by lunchtime. More scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon as another disturbance approaches. MLCAPE values this afternoon will be 1000-1500 J/kg but shear will be weak. While a gusty storm can't be ruled out, severe storms are not expected. There will likely be a lull in the action tonight into Saturday morning as we are in between waves and we lose the diurnal heating. More scattered showers and storms will develop Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The upper air pattern will remain active in the extended forecast as the quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbance after weak disturbance. The scattered showers and storms from Saturday will continue into Saturday night before we catch a break Sunday morning and afternoon. Another wave will approach Sunday evening with more showers and storms overnight. That wave will linger into Monday. Some temporary upper ridging may try to build into the area on Tuesday which could lower the rain chances, but it will be short-lived as the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow reestablishes itself midweek. Overnight temperatures through the forecast will be mild thanks to dew points in the 60s and extensive cloud cover. Daily highs will depend on the coverage of showers and storms each day but generally highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Already we are beginning to see scattered light showers develop across Middle Tennessee as a surface trough approaches the mid state from the west. For now, conditions at all terminals are VFR, but not for much longer. During the next several hours, showers will become more prevalent and ceilings will lower to MVFR and will remain there for much of the morning. Expect ceilings to improve somewhat during the afternoon as we experience some surface heating and boundary layer mixing, but rain chances will stay with us. There will be some instability in place, so we do expect a few thunderstorms to develop mainly during the afternoon, but they will be scattered in nature and not prevalent enough to warrant mention in the TAFs just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 66 81 65 / 80 70 40 40 Clarksville 78 63 81 64 / 90 40 30 40 Crossville 74 61 74 60 / 80 70 60 50 Columbia 80 64 80 63 / 80 70 40 40 Cookeville 76 63 76 62 / 80 70 60 50 Jamestown 75 61 75 60 / 80 70 70 50 Lawrenceburg 80 64 79 63 / 80 70 40 40 Murfreesboro 80 64 80 63 / 90 70 40 40 Waverly 79 63 79 64 / 80 60 40 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose ####018006168#### FXUS61 KCTP 030652 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 252 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for Friday as high pressure slides to the northeast. -Unsettled starting Friday night with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will be Friday night in the west and Saturday in the southeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Previous discussion... Dry air covers the entire CWA, now with Td 33F at BFD and readings nearing 50F in the far SE. The upper high is right overhead and keeping even the high clouds at bay for now. There will be some high clouds move in from the west overnight, but not thick enough to affect the sfc temps. Expect mins in the m40s at BFD to the m50s in the SE as the wind goes calm in lots of places. 715 pm update... All remains quiet this evening, with very dry boundary layer air in place across the Commonwealth. Upstream satellite imagery and near-term model guidance shows a gradual influx of higher-level cloudiness later tonight into Friday morning, but that looks like about it. Some of our guidance is suggesting that an area of maritime low cloudiness could impinge on NJ and far eastern PA, but we think this lower cloud mass will very likely stay east of the Susquehanna Valley overnight and early Friday. By daybreak, low temperatures should range from the mid 40s over the northern mountains, to the mid 50s over south-central PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sfc ridge slides E/NE on Fri, and moist return/srly flow brings dewpoints back into the u50s W and l50s E. Stability dips over the western mtns with TSRA popping by mid-aftn in the highest elevation of the Laurels and in the ANF/far NW. These should multiply and spread to the east through the night. Some of these could be moving slowly and PWAT will be 1.25" over the west by sunset. FFG is 1-1.5"/1hr in the west, and slightly higher east. Thus, there is a MRGL risk for excessive rainfall over the western third/half of the CWA due to potential for heavy rainfall. Have increased PoPs to likelies and low-end catg for Fri night for the SWrn half of the CWA. A slow moving frontal system combined with anomalous pwats will bring periods of rain to central PA this weekend. A few non- severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely along and west of the Alleghenies on the edge of warmer air surging into the upper Ohio Valley. The eastern slopes of the Alleghenies into the Susquehanna Valley will noticeably cooler with rain, low clouds and moist southeast flow. We trimmed max temps on Saturday due to the CAD pattern setup. Rain/showers continue on Sunday with highs recovering ~10F on the western and southern periphery of the CWA. Despite the relatively high moisture available, overall stability should limit rain rates especially east of the mtns and preclude flooding risk. 48hr blended mean QPF ranges from 0.50-0.75" with spot amounts up to 1 inch possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s. With several chances for rain next week along with persistent mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally, there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into Friday evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%). Two potential flies in the ointment. First, an area of lower cloudiness backing in from the Atlantic across NJ and perhaps southeastern PA later tonight and early Friday. There is low (10-15%), but non-zero chance that these clouds reach KLNS for a brief time. If they did, fuel alternate or even IFR ceiling bases would be possible. Secondarily, an area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day Friday (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. Once again, the threat is relatively low (10-20%), but certainly non-zero. The threat for MVFR cigs does increase substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV. Light surface winds overnight (5 kt or less), will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon at KJST. Outlook... Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA. Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CLIMATE... Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018 *Official report from State College will be available Friday morning. May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff AVIATION...Jurewicz/Colbert CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff ####018007399#### FXUS61 KBOX 030653 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 253 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes today and Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with showers likely and cooler temperatures Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then brings dry and warm weather Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Unsettled weather is possible later Wednesday into Thursday, with the risk of showers but likely remaining mild. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Today A broad anticyclone centered to the north/northeast of southern New England takes control today. A steady northeast flow will advect a cooler air mass over southern New England this afternoon with 925 hPa temps dropping to 5C or lower. With diurnal mixing this will translate to surface temps in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Downsloping from easterly flow over The Worcester Hills will support warmer temperatures in the upper 60s in the CT River Valley. After a cloudy start, a mid-level ridge axis building in from the west will be accompanied by a much drier air mass that will allow some clearing my late morning/early afternoon. Still expect FEW to SCT diurnal clouds this afternoon, but there should be a good amount of sunshine as well. Overall a seasonable day in southern New England. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Tonight and Tomorrow High pressure supports dry/quiet weather across southern New England tonight. Winds become light and variable which should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling across the region, though there is a question as to how much cloud cover there will be and thus cooling potential. Decided to blend the NBM25th percentile with CONSMOS to yield low temps in the low to mid 40s which is near to slightly below normal for early May in southern New England. High pressure remains in control on Saturday, so we continue to expect dry/quiet weather. However, continued onshore flow will support cloudiness across the region. Very little change in the air mass for Saturday, so expect high temperatures similar to what should be observed Friday afternoon with cooler temps along the coast in the mid 50s and warmer temps across the interior and CT River Valley ranging from the low to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Cool but dry Saturday night into Sunday, then numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. * Dry & warm Monday afternoon into Tuesday * Warm front around Tue night or Wed brings next chance for clouds and showers. Synoptic Overview... Tranquil stretch of weather in response to east coast ridging/above normal heights much of this forecast period. A brief interruption to the pattern, as northern stream trough briefly erodes this ridge with a risk of showers later Sunday into Monday morning. Then dry post frontal NW flow returns later Monday and into Tue. Progressive pattern follows with ridge building back into the northeast, but may be accompanied by warm frontal showers later Wed/Thu. Temperatures... Cool maritime ridge Sat night into Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs 55-60. 850 mb ensemble temp anomalies peak 18z Monday over southeast MA, in the transition to post frontal. Thus, looking at a warm day (provided clouds & showers exit before the PM hours) with WNW flow combined with warm temps aloft coupled with downsloping winds. Hence, coastline warms up too, including Cape Cod and Islands. Also, dew pts in the 50s will provide mild/warm feel to the airmass. Not much of a drop off in temps in the post frontal airmass, thus, another warm day Tuesday with NW flow, warm temps aloft combined with downsloping NW winds. Likely not as warm Wed/Thu but probably above normal(60s). Precipitation... High amplitude, deep layer ridge with 1030 mb high from the maritimes into eastern MA, provides dry weather Sat night into Sunday morning. Then approaching trough provides cyclonic flow and increasing/above normal PWATs yield numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Ensembles offering likely probs (60- 70% for 0.25 inches of rainfall, with chance probs (30-40%) for up to 0.50 inches of rainfall. Timing for widespread showers, highest PWATs from 06z-12z Monday per ensembles. Post frontal with dry slot during Monday afternoon. Drier than normal PWATs linger into Tue, then becoming unsettled Wed/Thu with moisture plume advecting across the region (PWATs up to 200% of normal). Too far out in time for details, but looking at height anomalies from the ensembles, anomalous lows over Newfoundland and the Dakotas, may result in a slower ridge advecting across SNE mid of next week. Thus, high amplitude pattern may support dry weather lingering thru much of Wed, especially eastern MA/RI. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z...High Confidence MVFR/IFR cigs persist through 12Z with breezy north/northeasterly winds. Some gusts to 20 knots possible at The Cape/Islands terminals. Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing for improvements. MVFR/IFR cigs eventually lift/scatter out to VFR by late morning early afternoon (16-18Z). Steady northeast winds for the first half of the day will become more easterly after 18Z. Tonight...High confidence VFR. Light and variable winds. Tomorrow...High confidence VFR. East winds from 5 to 10 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence KBDL TAF...High confidence Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: Chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Today through Tomorrow High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal waters through Saturday. Winds will prevail out of the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RM NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...Nocera/RM MARINE...Nocera/RM