####018003989#### FXUS64 KOUN 030706 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers/storms will continue into the morning hours with the highest chances in east central and southeast parts of the fa. The severe potential with this activity has diminished but still could get some gusty winds out of the stronger storms. Heavy rain/localized flooding will also be possible, especially in those areas that have already received several inches of rain and where storms train. The frontal boundary that moved across parts of the area Thursday will lift back north later today with moisture spreading back northward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area later today and move into the fa this evening/overnight. Meanwhile, another cold front is expected to begin to move into the fa overnight/early Saturday which would also be a focus for shower/storm development. Severe storms will be possible starting this evening with damaging wind and hail possible. Highs today are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 With the frontal boundary over the fa and potentially a shortwave moving across the region, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms will be possible again Saturday evening and overnight with damaging wind and hail. However, what might be a bigger concern this weekend is the potential for more widespread heavy rain with heaviest amounts expected across the southern half or so of the area. With the recent heavy rainfall that has already occurred, this heavy rain could lead to additional flash flooding/river flooding in several areas. For Monday, models show an upper trough approaching and moving into the Plains. At the sfc, a dryline develops and moves into the area. Thunderstorms will be possible once again with severe storms possible. The potential for severe weather could be greater on Monday compared to the next few days due to the added upper air support. There are some uncertainties since what happens over the weekend could affect the airmass over the region but with the upper support and dryline, thunderstorms/severe storms are possible Monday. After Monday it looks like there could be a period of quieter weather for at least the middle of next week with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR and VFR ceilings expected with this TAF period with IFR ceilings possible at a few sites early Friday. Scattered showers/storms will remain possible overnight into early Friday for mainly areas east of the TAF sites except for KDUA. Additional storms will be possible Friday evening but chances too low at some sites for mention. Frontal boundary is expected to slowly move a bit more with NE winds N of the front. Southeasterly winds will return Friday as the front lifts back north as a warm front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 63 77 60 / 20 40 90 70 Hobart OK 78 60 76 58 / 30 50 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 80 62 78 61 / 30 40 80 80 Gage OK 79 54 68 51 / 20 70 50 60 Ponca City OK 78 61 73 57 / 10 60 80 60 Durant OK 82 65 79 64 / 30 30 70 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ038-039- 041>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25 ####018011334#### FXUS61 KAKQ 030709 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Latest analysis reveals sfc ridge offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this evening. Meanwhile to the north, 1024+mb sfc high pressure is building south from Ontario and Quebec into the northeastern US. This feature is also driving weakening low pressure over eastern New England south and offshore of the northeast coast. Aloft, anomalously strong mid/upper level ridging which allowed for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland today remains in place this evening from the mid-south to the southeast coast, extending north across the mid- Atlantic region. Mainly quiet weather prevails through the night, with high pressure in place just offshore. Guidance suggests that the surface low to the north dives farther south overnight, with the associated cold front diving across the MD eastern shore after 10z/6am late tonight into Friday morning. Expect winds to back to the NE post-frontal, with an increase in clouds over the Delmarva for the afternoon, reaching eastern VA by mid to late afternoon. This evening's guidance is a bit too aggressive right now given latest regional observations, and do not think fog will be an issue tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today to mix out much of the remnant moisture from yesterday's light rain. That said, some spotty ground fog will be possible, with the best chances mainly east of US-13 on the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. Mild early morning lows will be in the mid- upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Increasing clouds from NE to SW Friday into Friday night as a cold front drops across the region. - Rain chances increase mainly west of the bay tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Lighter, intermittent rainfall possible along the coast tomorrow night and into Saturday. The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon. Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HREF mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow. Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages... - Additional scattered showers and storms on Sunday and Monday. - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week. The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast. Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC. By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM Friday... VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 06z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise this morning, allowing winds to turn NE, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW today, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Flight restrictions (primarily low CIGs) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front. -Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night. Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog. Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond. Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MAM/MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AM/MAM MARINE...LKB/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...