####018003591#### FXUS63 KDMX 041135 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms passing across Iowa early this morning into early afternoon with low end wind and hail risk. - Additional strong to severe storms on Monday evening into Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A surface low has ejected across the central plains and towards the midwest through the overnight. Convection has ridden the surface warm front into the area with storms persisting thanks to low-level jet reinforcement. By 3 AM storms were entering western parts of the area, but have lost some steam thanks to weak instability into Iowa as the primary axis falls short of the area. This line of storms will continue progress across the area through the morning, exiting east in the early afternoon. MLCAPE through today remains around 500 J/kg with rather modest lapse rates, though deep layer (0-6 and 1-6 km) shear within sounding comes in at 40-50 kts. Given the parameter space, expect some small hail and wind risk with storms, however the severe threat remains on the lowers side into the afternoon. At the same time, hydro concerns remain in the back of our minds. Given recent heavy rains in recent days, a few areas are more sensitive (rivers in northern Iowa in minor flood and south-central Iowa which saw flash flooding earlier in the week). The good news here is that storms are fairly progressive which will mitigate most issues. HREF LPMM places a widespread 0.75-1.0" across the area with a few pockets of 1.5+" possible. Sunday will bring a welcome reprieve in the active period with weak ridging into the area behind the departing low. This is short-lived as the next system will be on our doorstep, swinging across the Rockies. By Monday will will move across the plains. In Iowa this will make for a breezy afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. Recent model runs have slowed the progression of the system, lifting it across Iowa later Monday evening and into the overnight before exiting on Tuesday. A plume of instability cuts across the area with 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and deep layer shear exceeding 40 kts. Model soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profile with sweeping hodographs through the lowest 2 km. With 0-1 km SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2, tornadic activity is something to be aware of, in addition to the hail and wind concerns. The week remains active with another system on Wednesday/Thursday. Details on this will be forthcoming as this system is closely associated with the Monday/Tuesday system and will be heavily influenced by it. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A line of thunderstorms bisects the state from north to south this morning along the I-35 corridor at 630 am. This line is resulting in visibility reductions in heavy rain along with MVFR to IFR ceilings within and behind the line of storms. This line will continue to push east through the morning and early afternoon. Expect winds becoming breezy out of the northwest with gusts over 20 kts behind the line. Improvements back to VFR by later this afternoon and evening. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Hagenhoff ####018006869#### FXUS64 KMOB 041135 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Areas of dense fog has developed early this morning, bringing LIFR conditions to much of the area. Fog is expected to dissipate in a few hours and VFR conditions should generally prevail through the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon, mainly for inland areas. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Another round of fog is possible late tonight across much of the region. /96 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Satellite nighttime microphysics and area observations show that patchy to areas of fog has developed once again across the area early this morning. The best coverage (and lowest visibilities) seems to be confined to portions of Baldwin county and the western FL Panhandle, where skies are more clear. Elsewhere, mid to upper clouds have been helping to keep coverage rather limited and overall visibilities are generally above 3SM. However, upper clouds over southeast MS and southwest AL appear to be thinning out, setting the expectation that fog will increase in coverage and density in these areas over the next couple of hours. Because of this, a Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 9AM CDT for much of the area, except for portions of south central Alabama (where mid level clouds remain rather prominent) and along the immediate coast. Fog will begin dissipating by around 9AM. A general zonal to northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected through to continue through the period as an upper ridge builds over the western Gulf. Two weak shortwaves, embedded within this flow aloft, look to move overhead through the period... the first this afternoon into the early evening hours, and the other late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. At the surface, large high pressure over the western Atlantic allows for southerly winds to continue through the period. Daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from the shortwaves aloft, and ample moisture in place from the persistent southerly flow, should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon, primarily over interior areas. Weak shear in place will help to keep convection disorganized and pulse-like in nature, likely developing off the sea breeze boundary at first, and spreading via outflow boundary collisions. As is the case for this type of convection, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of producing gusty downdraft winds. Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues through the weekend. Additional fog development is once again possible tonight across much of the area. Fog may become dense in spots so we will monitor the need for another Dense Fog Advisory. /96 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday night into Monday, upper ridging begins to build across the region, amplifying further on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough moves into the Plains states. Will still have a chance for showers and storms over our interior zones on Monday before the ridge becomes firmly established and another shortwave aloft moves east across the area, but dry conditions will then prevail Tuesday through Wednesday with the increased ridging. By Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold front will be approaching the region from the west, and with continued southerly flow bringing increased moisture, we will again be looking at a chance of showers and storms over interior portions of the forecast area again by Thursday afternoon through Friday. The front will be getting close to our forecast area on Friday, so PoPs will probably be highest that day, but still only about 30 percent or so. The front should move east across our area sometime late Friday night. The temperature forecast will be on the rise through the first half of the longer term forecast period as subsidence from the upper ridging increases. Highs on Monday will primarily still be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, but on Tuesday look for upper 80s and lower 90s. On Wednesday and Thursday max temperatures will be even warmer with highs mainly in the lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices will climb into the mid to upper 90s for many locations each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, which could lead to heat stress concerns. Still in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area on Friday as well. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s each night, Sunday through Tuesday (lower 70s along the coast), then primarily in the low to mid 70s across the entire area Wednesday and Thursday nights. DS/12 MARINE... Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 feet by the early to middle part of the week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 68 86 69 85 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 10 20 0 10 0 Pensacola 84 70 83 70 82 71 83 73 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 Destin 82 70 82 71 82 73 82 74 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 89 65 89 64 87 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 10 30 0 10 0 Waynesboro 88 64 88 66 87 67 89 69 / 40 20 30 10 30 0 20 0 Camden 88 65 88 65 85 66 89 68 / 30 20 30 20 30 10 20 0 Crestview 89 64 89 64 87 66 88 68 / 20 10 10 0 20 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>053- 059-261>264. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob ####018004516#### FXUS64 KOUN 041136 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 636 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front. Gusty winds and maybe some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. Additional showers/storms could develop in the area later this afternoon near any lingering boundaries. Meanwhile, showers/storms are also expected to develop SW of the fa this afternoon then spread NE into the area this evening. Storm development will continue overnight into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the southern Plains. Some severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours with large hail and damaging winds possible but the biggest concern tonight will likely shift to flooding. Heavy rain is expected this evening into Sunday, especially across the southern half or so of the fa. Will continue with the current Flood Watch but flooding will be of particular concern in those areas that have already received heavy rainfall over the last week. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers/storms are expected to continue into Sunday as the shortwave continues to move across the southern Plains with heavy rain/flooding the primary concern although some of the storms could also produce some strong winds and hail. Rain chances will gradually decrease from west to east Sunday. Monday: It still looks like there could be a significant severe weather event in the area on Monday. Models show a negatively tilted trough approaching the region Monday. At the sfc, a dryline is expected to move into western parts of the fa by late afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, a moist, unstable airmass is expected to be in place. Storms are expected to develop near the dryline late Monday afternoon/evening. The highest chance for storm development will be in northern parts of the fa closer to the upper support with storm coverage expected to decrease the farther south you go. Severe storms are expected with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture will linger in SE parts of the fa. Heating and any disturbances in the flow could lead to storm development late afternoon/evening on both days in southeast parts of the fa but chances are currently low. A frontal boundary is expected to move across the area middle/late next week which will shunt the better moisture south of the fa that could lead to at least a brief break in the active weather pattern before more widespread rain chances potentially return next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Stratus deck behind a cold front will be increasing across western Oklahoma as well as a second stratus deck in the warm sector lifting up from north Texas will both result in terminals reducing to MVFR conditions between 12-18Z and continue through much of the rest of this forecast period. Cold front nearly along the I-44 corridor will continue its push shifting surface winds out of the north behind the front with wind speeds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Expecting isolated thunderstorms behind the cold front which could affect our terminals through 18Z with a second round coming up from western Texas after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 58 72 62 / 70 80 80 20 Hobart OK 72 57 74 61 / 60 90 60 20 Wichita Falls TX 78 62 76 64 / 50 90 60 10 Gage OK 71 50 74 57 / 20 50 40 20 Ponca City OK 71 54 69 59 / 100 70 70 20 Durant OK 80 65 76 64 / 50 80 90 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...68 ####018008474#### FXUS65 KGJT 041136 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 536 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the central and southern Continental Divide mountains this afternoon and evening. Warmer and dry conditions are expected elsewhere. - Very strong winds are likely on Sunday with gusts upwards of 65 mph in the valleys and 80 mph in the mountains. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for much of eastern Utah and far western Colorado Sunday morning through Sunday evening. - A strong storm system and cold front will bring widespread precipitation and much cooler temperatures Sunday night into Monday with the potential for accumulating mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 The cold front that dropped southward through most of the forecast area yesterday will quickly return northward as a warm front today. This is in response to strengthening southwest flow ahead of a large storm system off the coast of northern California. Strong warm advection within the southwest flow will boost surface high temperatures well into the 70s across the lower valleys this afternoon with 80s looking like a solid bet across canyon country of southeast Utah. Also embedded within the southwest flow will be a weak shortwave that will pass near the central and southern Continental Divide mountains. Just enough forcing, moisture, and instability will be present with this wave to spark a few scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, warm and dry weather will be the rule for the first Saturday of May under mostly sunny skies. Like the past few days, afternoon breezes are likely to kick up a bit again today, but weaker winds aloft should keep gusts under 30 mph for the most part. The same cannot be said on Sunday, however, as the potential for a high end wind event awaits to round out the weekend. As the strong storm system off the coast of northern California tracks inland across the Great Basin Saturday night into Sunday, the nose of a potent mid and upper level jet will overspread eastern Utah and western Colorado from the southwest. Wind speeds at 700mb will be approaching 50 to 60 kts while speeds at 250mb will likely exceed 100 kts. In fact, the 700mb wind speeds being advertised by ensemble model guidance from a climatological standpoint are near the 99th percentile for this time of year, with return intervals of 1 day every 10 years or more. In other words, those kinds of speeds at that pressure surface are highly anomalous and rare. So as those mid and upper level jets nose in, the pressure gradient in between the deep closed low to our west and a ridge to the east will significantly tighten. Combined with strong diabatic heating and the resulting deep boundary layer mixing, the lower atmosphere will be very efficient at transporting those winds aloft down to the ground. What's also concerning is the potential for virga to enhance the downward momentum transfer of those winds given increasing moisture aloft but very dry air in the subcloud layer down to the surface. Latest hi-res soundings show this very well with a nearly saturated layer above 600mb and the classic inverted V signature on downward. Taking this altogether, the ingredients are there for a potentially significant and high end wind event on Sunday with gusts upwards of 65 mph possible in the valleys and up to 80 mph in the mountains. Interestingly enough (but maybe not all that surprising given the above), the EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is showing a very strong signal that a very unusual wind event is becoming increasingly likely... with at least 10 percent of ensemble members pointing towards an extreme outcome. That's something worth paying attention to. However, despite these concerning trends and signals, opted to leave the High Wind Watch unchanged with this package to let the day shift take a look at more data. Should these trends continue, upgrades to High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories would almost certainly follow. In the meantime, start getting prepared for high winds by securing loose outdoor objects or furniture, making plans to postpone any outdoor burning, and staying up to date with the latest forecasts. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Models were in good agreement in shifting the strong spring storm eastward across the forecast area Sunday night through Monday morning with wrap around moisture impacting northern Colorado into the afternoon. Strong south/southwest winds ahead of the cold front associated with the system will shift to the west/northwest and decrease as the boundary moves rapidly to the east, exiting to eastern Colorado by sunrise Monday. Impressive dynamic lift indicated from the surface to the jet level Sunday night which should be the most intense phase of this storm. On Monday, dynamic forcing decreases, but favorable westerly flow working on deep moisture in an environment featuring steep lapse rates will continue to generate orographic showers across the eastern Uinta Mountains, the northwest Colorado plateau, and the northern and central Colorado mountains and their adjacent valleys. In fact, orography is expected to continue generating showers Monday night and into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the influx of cold air is expected to bring snow levels below mountain bases in the north with some light accumulations possible for the lower elevations of northwest Colorado. All told, latest guidance suggested snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches across the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains, mainly above 8 Kft from Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon. Snow amounts will be progressively lighter and confined to higher elevations to the south. The storm center moves to the northern High Plains where it stalls on Tuesday. A short wave trough on the flanks of the deep northern low is expected to push southeastward through the area from Tuesday night into Wednesday. This disturbance will continue to generate shower activity, mainly across the north, while bringing another shot of colder air to the forecast area. Only light additional accumulations are expected during this period. The latter part of the week appeared to be less certain with model agreement trending down. In general, 00Z/Sat operational runs depicted a secondary low pressure system developing over the Great Basin on Thursday which becomes quasi-stationary through Friday. This leaves the forecast area under a broad col between the low to the west and the northerly flow to the east. Consequently, showers remain in the forecast with the Colorado mountains favored. Temperatures cool by 10 to 15 degrees on Monday with highs expected to run close to 10 degrees below normal for most locations. Temperatures moderate slightly Tuesday, then dip again Wednesday before trending milder during the latter half of the week. Wednesday morning appears quite cold and there is some potential for freezing temperatures in Grand Valley and Uncompahgre basin where vegetation is susceptible to damage. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Partly to mostly sunny skies are in store today with generally light and terrain driven winds aside from a few gusts here and there. More clouds and a spotty shower or two can't be ruled out near KASE, KGUC, and KTEX this afternoon and evening as a disturbance passes by to the south and east. Quiet weather returns tonight, though clouds and winds will start to increase towards daybreak Sunday morning. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ001>003-006-011-017-020-021. UT...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-025-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDM LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...TGJT ####018004820#### FXUS62 KFFC 041136 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 736 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend. 500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. A shortwave trough is moving through central AL early this morning. This mid level system could provide just enough lift for some light shra/patchy light rain early this morning and continue to provide some lift for scattered afternoon convection. The shortwave trough will move very slowly eastward, and could remain right along the coast through early Sunday. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. A weak frontal boundary will move across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday. The front will sag southward late Sunday, with the boundary laying down from east to west. The boundary should remain north of the CWA. Not much denoted in the surface pattern to focus convection, the main forcing mechanisms should be in the mid levels. The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely associated with the trough aloft. Have kept pops mostly isold/sct across much of the CWA, but have kept the likely pops in the east. A few storms could become strong this afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being the primary hazards. BL winds remain very light (weak steering currents) and PWATs are 1.5"+, so locally heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms form. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 PoPs will remain elevated on Monday as a shortwave trough progresses through quasi-zonal midlevel flow across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected given the presence of a moist airmass characterized by PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range. While no notable severe threat is expected, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be expected in any stronger thunderstorm. Drier but hotter conditions will make a return by Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds across the area. As such, any isolated/widely scattered convection would be relegated to far north Georgia during these midweek days. Temperatures will respond in kind with upper 80s to low 90s spreading across the area for highs, some 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms. Flow aloft by Thursday becomes more southwesterly between the trough extending from the Great Lakes and ridging centered across the Gulf. With the near-stationary surface front extending across the Mid- Mississippi Valley Thursday, disturbances propagating along the frontal zone will serve to increase PoPs, especially across north Georgia. Given plentiful SBCAPE and more favorable bulk shear, will have to monitor the potential for any severe risk associated with potential convective complexes that could affect the area by Thursday and again into Friday as the surface front pushes into the area. RW && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Could be some patchy MVFR cigs behind the shra this morning, but confidence is low. Cigs should be between 035-050 for much of the day, a few breaks in the cu are possible in the very late afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible again overnight. Winds should be on the west side for much of today, but go SE again overnight. SW expected by mid morning Sunday. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 83 64 82 / 40 40 40 70 Atlanta 65 82 65 82 / 30 40 40 60 Blairsville 60 77 60 76 / 40 40 50 80 Cartersville 63 83 63 83 / 30 40 40 70 Columbus 66 87 66 87 / 20 40 30 40 Gainesville 64 81 64 80 / 30 40 40 80 Macon 65 86 65 85 / 40 40 20 60 Rome 63 84 64 84 / 30 40 50 70 Peachtree City 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 60 Vidalia 66 87 67 86 / 40 40 20 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...NListemaa ####018006295#### FXUS61 KBTV 041138 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region today and will bring one more day of dry and mild weather. Widespread rainfall returns for Sunday, and some isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, particularly over northern New York. A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 647 AM EDT Saturday... A few rain showers are currently over the North Country but they should fall apart in the next couple hours. Had to increase PoPs slightly as they made it a little farther east than expected. Thick cloud cover has enveloped the region overnight but it should at least partially break during the day. Overall, the forecast is in relatively good shape so there were only a few edits made. Previous discussion follows... Previous Discussion...An occluded front is currently decaying as it is moving across the North Country due to a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the region. The front has been able to bring a couple showers to northern New York, but those should mostly fall apart before they reach Vermont. Light southeasterly flow is helping to advect a cooler maritime airmass into areas east of the Greens and it is creating a relatively sharp temperature gradient tonight. Lows east of the greens will be in the 40s but the in the Champlain and St. lawrence Valleys, temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 50s. Any showers over northern New York should fall apart by daybreak so Saturday will be a mostly dry day. Some high clouds will linger into the day but they should be thin enough to allow a decent amount of sunshine, particularly over Vermont. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to around 70, very similar to yesterday. Another front slowly moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday, and with some connection to gulf moisture, it will bring more meaningful precipitation. Most areas should see up to around a half inch of rain so there are no flooding concerns. Some elevated instability should develop during the day on Sunday, particularly over northern New York, so some thunderstorms and heavier convective showers are possible. However, there is no severe threat. A southerly low-level jet will pass over the region on Sunday and will cause some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust up to 30 kts over Lake Champlain. However, winds will be limited by the water temperatures being colder than the air and by the strongest winds occurring when the precipitation is falling. These two factors will limit the ability for the stronger winds to mix down. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread rain showers will be ongoing Sunday night as a frontal boundary moves across the region. Although it won't be all that much colder behind the front, the incoming airmass will be much drier, so expect showers will rapidly come to an end by early Monday morning. Another weak surface trough will move through Monday afternoon, which may allow a few additional showers to develop, but any activity would be isolated and very light in nature given the dry air that will be in place. Ridging spreads into the area Monday night, keeping conditions dry. Monday's highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring where sun can break through the clouds. Lows both Sunday night and Monday night will mostly be in the 40s, though Sunday will be more in the mid 40s to around 50F, while Monday night will be a little cooler. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as we remain under the influence of ridging, but then precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday and continue through the remainder of the week as several waves move through the nearly zonal flow aloft, and eventually around a developing upper trough centered to our north. Exact timing and placement of these waves and associated precipitation is difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, but expect every day through the latter half of the week to have at some chance of showers. Instability doesn't look all that impressive, though a few rumbles of thunder may be possible Wednesday over western sections of northern NY, and perhaps far southern VT on Thursday. Tuesday will be the warmest day under lots of sunshine; highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Things should cool down slightly thereafter, though exactly how much will depend on exact timing and placement of shower activity and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions should persist through the entire TAF period though moist southeast flow could cause ceilings at MPV to lower to MVFR late tonight. A few light showers are possible early this morning at at any of the terminals but they will not be heavy enough to cause any visibility concerns. Steadier rain will arrive in northern New York late tonight. Wind shear is currently close to LLWS criteria at many of the terminals but the wind shear will decrease this morning and stay lower for the rest of the day. Winds will stay relatively consistent throughout the TAF period. They will generally be from the southeast between 5-15 KTs, though BTV may gust a little higher. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Myskowski