####018004717#### FXUS63 KDTX 030720 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers hang around today, with a chance of non-severe thunderstorms. - High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next weak cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning. - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Large upper level low/trough over Central North American early this morning, with the center along the northern Minnesota border. The 500 MB low (~540 DAM) will track off to the northeast, reaching Hudson Bay Saturday morning. Deep southwest flow will maintain above normal temperatures over southeast Michigan right through the weekend. Moisture advection has peaked out with the broad 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis extending north, through the Central Great Lakes. Still looks like lingering showers around today with possible thunderstorms as a ribbon of upper level PV approaches from the southwest. Severe weather not expected with weak mid level lapse rates and MLcapes under 750 J/kg. Height rises/surface ridging expected on Saturday, leading to mainly dry conditions during the day. Low clouds trapped underneath subsidence inversion, with perhaps a bit of drizzle/very light showers toward the southern Michigan border where the higher dew pts reside. Weak height falls/cold front then on track to move through through Saturday night, worthy of chance pops, despite the bulk of the forcing over northern Great Lakes. Western confluent upper level flow Sunday preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting at least a 48 hour window of dry and pleasant weather. && .MARINE... A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes today pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on this morning warm frontal passage and may persist into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms then increase coverage once again in the evening as the cold front gets pulled through the region. Brief area of high pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday. Winds will flip around to the northeast behind the cold front tonight, but the area of high pressure will keep winds below 20 knots. Southerly winds will redevelop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through Sunday, but will turn northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 AVIATION... Clusters of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over SE Mi late tonight through the morning. Ongoing activity along and north of the warm front combines with additional showers and storms moving in from the IL/southern Lake Mi area as the front moves very slowly from northern IN and western OH into southern Lower Mi. Earlier nocturnal timing of rainfall contributes to expansion of MVFR ceiling in and around the warm front as it moves northward and eastward during the morning followed by a similar cloud field quickly followed by the associated cold front. The cold front is set to move through SE Mi during afternoon also providing a focus for showers and scattered storms until exiting eastward by Friday evening. For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated and elevated thunderstorm occurs late tonight among scattered to numerous showers across SE Mi. The storms will have ordinary intensity through the morning until daytime instability builds up in the afternoon. A renewed time window for thunderstorms then occurs mid to late afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered coverage occurs among numerous showers along the front, although strong to severe storms are not expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday. * Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Friday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SF AVIATION.....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018004585#### FXUS62 KFFC 030721 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 321 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting the CWA through the short term period of the forecast. 500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow, one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any, measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon, helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday, bringing greater coverage of storms than today. With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support. A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May. The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring increasing rain chances again by the end of the period. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR through the overnight hours. Isold shra are possible around 12Z this morning. Better chances for shra or tsra later this afternoon and have adjusted the timing by an hour or so in the prob group. Winds will be a challenge. The predominate direction during the day will be SW but the predominate directions overnight and Friday night will be SE. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med - high confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 83 63 78 62 / 30 30 60 60 Atlanta 83 66 79 64 / 30 30 70 50 Blairsville 76 61 73 59 / 40 50 70 60 Cartersville 82 63 79 61 / 40 30 60 40 Columbus 87 67 86 66 / 20 20 40 40 Gainesville 80 64 76 64 / 40 40 70 50 Macon 86 66 82 64 / 30 30 70 40 Rome 82 64 79 62 / 40 40 60 40 Peachtree City 85 64 82 63 / 30 30 60 50 Vidalia 89 68 82 66 / 30 40 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...NListemaa