####018007410#### FXUS63 KDLH 041147 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 647 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate rain continues through this morning and afternoon before tapering off this evening last in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. An isolated thunderstorm is possible (20% chance) near the Iron Range this afternoon. - Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight. - Dry conditions Sunday giveway to a warmup near 70 F Monday when there is a 40% chance of near-critical fire weather conditions as breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range. - The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms most likely in northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The slow moving, weak cold front that moved into the region overnight is producing an axis of low to mid-level convergent flow from the Brainerd Lakes into the Arrowhead early this morning. Combine this forcing with a southerly moist jet with Gulf air, the widespread light to locally moderate rainfall within the convergent axis has brought up to a few tenths of an inch of rainfall overnight so far. Rainfall rates and amounts will increase during the daylight morning hours for the I-35 counties in MN and US Hwy 53 counties in WI though as the mid- level frontal forcing pushes eastward within the deeper mid to upper level trough to align better with the moisture. A quarter to half-inch of rainfall is expected for those locations by late this afternoon. Frontal-associated rainfall exits the region by mid-afternoon as dry air in the mid-levels pushes into the southern half of the Northland from the west and the front exits the region. In far northern Minnesota (north of US Hwy 2), a secondary vort max drops into north-central Minnesota from the north by mid-day today. Residual wrap-around moisture (0.5" PWAT progged in guidance), mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, around 100 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20 knots of effective shear may (20% chance) support isolated thunderstorm development from Bemidji- Grand Rapids- Hibbing and northward. The most likely hazards in those thunderstorms would be very localized moderate rainfall and pea size hail. Other locations in the Arrowhead, Brainerd Lakes and Twin Ports are expected to see another period of scattered rain showers in this afternoon time period. As the secondary vort max exits the Arrowhead by mid-evening later today, dry air subsidence ends all shower chances overnight tonight. Deterministic guidance progs the 850 mb air mass from 0 to -2 C for far northern Minnesota. Combine this cold air mass, light winds under surface high pressure and residual moisture trapped in the boundary layer, there is potential (40% chance) of fog development in the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. If locations closer to the Brainerd Lakes that see precipitation end earlier today and the dry air mixes out the surface layer enough, then frost could instead form tonight for those locations. A dry day on Sunday sees temperatures rebound into the low to mid-60s across the region as surface high pressure exits the region to the east and a mid-level ridge builds overhead from the west; promoting southerly air advecting into the region beginning Sunday night. Gusty southeasterly low-level winds mix out Monday morning to create breezy conditions around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph for parts of east-central and north-central MN. Relative humidity in the low to mid-30 percent range may (40% chance) create a period of near-critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon as temperatures are forecast to peak around 70 F. The fuel guidance from land management agencies will also be monitored for input due to recent rainfall and how the spring "green up" proceeds in this early week period. Precipitation chances build Monday evening as a low pressure moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains Monday afternoon. The warm front passes over the region Monday night to create a period of likely (80% chance) widespread rainfall and possible (30% chance) thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as the low pressure retrogrades in the Northern Plains. The best chance of non-severe thunderstorms will be in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. In all, there is a 60-70% chance of at least 1/2 inch of rainfall for northwest Wisconsin and east-central and the Arrowhead in MN. The upper-bound of isolated rainfall is 1-1.25" with a 20% chance of occurrence in localized areas of east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday. Ensemble cluster analysis shows high confidence on the vertically stacked low pressure center remaining over the Northern Plains, which may (20-30% chance) keep the Northland in a continued wet pattern into next week as well before the deep low ejects eastward by late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A band of moderate rainfall is ongoing over most of northeast Minnesota currently and will extend into northwest Wisconsin over the next couple of hours. VFR conditions presently are expected to drop at terminals as higher rainfall rates produce lower visibility and ceilings lower by 14Z in NE MN, towards 15Z in NW WI. Conditions improve from 16 to 19Z west to east. After the widespread rainfall chances taper except in the Arrowhead by this afternoon, scattered rain showers form in north-central Minnesota first late this morning and work eastward towards HIB this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm producing moderate rain and pea size hail could not be ruled out near and north of a line from GPZ-HIB-ELO in Minnesota from mid to late afternoon hours today. The last rain showers exit the Arrowhead after 00-02Z this evening. Areas of fog, although location highly unsure still at this time, are expected starting late Saturday night and lasting into early Sunday morning. Have placed mist in the HYR TAF at this time for the best chances (40% chance) of this fog development towards the end of that TAF period, but other terminals may need it in future issuances as well. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A band of persistent light to moderate rainfall today and tapering this evening may (60% chance along the South Shore and 40% chance for the North Shore) result in marine fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. No headlines are expected currently, but if dense fog does form tonight then some could be necessary. Otherwise, light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy ####018004909#### FXUS64 KLZK 041147 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 647 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Currently, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the region. Cloud cover was a mixture of low stratus (mainly over the Ern half of AR) to high clouds (mainly over the Wrn half of AR). The radar was quiet locally however convective activity was noted over the Plains. Patchy fog had developed over portions of state but nothing concentrated enough to warrant a fog advisory at this time. Temperatures were starting out in the 60s with calm or light winds. Today, the aforementioned convection will move across the state beneath a weak upper level disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see rainfall at their particular location. The best PoP chances will be over NW AR into N-Cntrl AR, including portions of Cntrl, SE, and Ern AR. Organized strong to severe thunderstorms seem unlikely, however strong winds or marginally severe hail could be possible. Highs today should top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points will be in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight, rain chances will decrease with lows falling into the 60s. On Sunday, a much stronger upper level impulse will move through background SWrly flow. This will spark off a new round of showers and thunderstorms. Convection should then track from SW to NE across the state through the daytime. For now, the threat for severe weather appears low. PoP chances are higher with the Sunday system as confidence is much higher in widespread QPF vs Saturday. By Sunday night, PoPs will decrease from the SW as the upper system moves into the OH Valley. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. High temperatures should climb into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The extended period will start off with a large storm system tracking from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a cold front into the region late Monday night/Tuesday, but the front will likely stall just north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft. Ahead of the front, strong/severe thunderstorms will be likely in the central/southern Plains on Monday. It is possible that some severe weather could make it into western Arkansas after dark/early Tuesday. Otherwise, warmer conditions are expected locally, with well above average temperatures. Severe weather chances will go up Tuesday/Wednesday as shortwaves rotating around the system to the north interact with the stalled front. Afternoon CAPE values from 2000 to 3000+ J/kg seem reasonable, and there should be enough wind energy/shear to support at least isolated tornadoes. As the period ends, the system to the north will wobble toward New England. Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front that halted to the north will be driven through the region on Thursday with one last round of hit/miss thunderstorms. Cooler/drier and more seasonable air will follow the front on Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Patchy dense FG and low stratus will linger across area terminals for the next couple of hours, with conds ranging from MVFR to LIFR. The next round of SHRA/TSRA will arrive from the W and NW with the passage of another weak upper level disturbance. Highest confidence in PoPs would be over N-Cntrl sections of the state from mid-day into the afternoon. This activity will push SE with time. Lower CIGs should once again arrive to end the TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 64 77 64 / 50 30 90 70 Camden AR 85 64 76 64 / 40 30 80 30 Harrison AR 79 60 71 60 / 50 40 90 50 Hot Springs AR 83 64 75 63 / 50 50 90 40 Little Rock AR 84 67 78 66 / 40 40 90 50 Monticello AR 84 66 80 67 / 50 30 70 40 Mount Ida AR 83 63 74 63 / 50 50 100 30 Mountain Home AR 80 60 73 62 / 50 30 90 60 Newport AR 82 64 79 64 / 50 30 90 70 Pine Bluff AR 84 65 78 65 / 40 30 90 50 Russellville AR 82 63 75 63 / 50 40 90 40 Searcy AR 82 63 77 64 / 50 30 90 70 Stuttgart AR 83 65 78 66 / 40 30 90 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...70 ####018005036#### FXUS65 KCYS 041149 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 549 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. - Strong winds (60+ mph) return to southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Monday with a prolonged period of elevated winds continuing for wind prone locations through midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 247 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Today...Transitory shortwave ridging aloft will build overhead and with plenty of sunshine and 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius, maximum temperatures will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s, with south low level winds limiting the warmup. Tonight...Decent moderation in temperatures will occur as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of the approaching trough aloft over the Great Basin states, inducing increasing south winds and a thermal ridge over our counties, with low temperatures from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Sunday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of the approaching trough aloft over the Great Basin states, inducing a fairly significant surface trough along Interstate 25. Surface and low level gradients support a windy day with brisk south to southeast winds. Although the atmosphere will be relatively dry, it appears there will be enough low and mid level moisture to support isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage along the surface trough from Douglas to Laramie. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius support maximum temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday night...The negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft pivots into western Colorado, sending the leading edge of a potent Pacific origin cold front into our western counties. Looks like enough low and mid level moisture, combined with cold frontal lifting and dynamic forcing associated with the 500-300 mb and 700-500 mb quasigeostrophic forcing to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across our forecast area, with snow showers becoming widespread across our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 247 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 An upper level low will be traversing the region early next week with the trough axis of the initial wave passing through the CWA Monday. While severe storms are expected across the central plains farther east, strong winds are likely to be the local impact across southeast WY and western NE with this storm system. Strong cross barrier winds developing across the Laramie Range with impressive downward omega fields in the wake of the trough axis passage could lead to wind gusts 70-75 mph along the I-25 corridor. Latest NBM probabilities of 55+ mph wind gusts are quite high (>80%) for most wind-prone areas Monday across southeast WY with areas covered by 50% probabilities expanding outside of wind-prone locations onto adjacent foothills and plains. Additionally, in-house guidance continues to show high probabilities (60-80%) for high winds. There remains to be some uncertainty with the duration of this wind event with elevated to potential high winds continuing through Wednesday morning. However, guidance has been starting to suggest Monday is the most likely timing of the strongest winds across much of the area, while wind-prone locations could continue to see occasional gusts into midweek. 700mb flow climbing over 60 kt across southeast WY with strong ensemble support for high winds early next week as the latest NAEFS and EC are showing over climatological 99th percentile 700mb winds. Precipitation chances Monday will be best across Carbon Co as well as over east-central WY extending northward. Surface cyclogenesis with this upper low track appears more likely in southeast MT and western SD keeping much of the precipitation shield to the north. Additionally, this upper level low looks to stall out across the central CONUS with a potentially retrograding surface low leaving southeast WY and western NE under a general troughing pattern through the remainder of the week. This will lead to below average temperatures for early May with additional chances for light precipitation through the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions currently across area terminals with isolated pockets of low clouds developing near southeast WY terminals. Expected mostly clear skies to persist throughout the day with gusty southerly winds around 20-30 kt this afternoon. Gusty winds will continue into this evening across the NE panhandle with a nocturnal LLJ setting up. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...MB