####018007895#### FXUS61 KALY 030730 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 330 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region this morning will shift eastward to the New England coast during the afternoon. This high will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure over the region this morning slides east into New England this afternoon, with an upper level ridge axis moving overhead through the day. This will result in continued dry conditions, with just some increasing high level clouds. Patchy low stratus clouds in place across northern/eastern parts of the area should mix out by late morning. A cooler onshore SE flow will keep temperatures cooler than that past few days. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge axis gradually shifts east of the area tonight, as a weak disturbance approaching from the west slightly flattens out the ridge. High/mid level clouds will increase thicken from west to east, with a few sprinkles possible west of the Hudson Valley. Dry low levels should preclude any measurable rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies lows will be somewhat mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend days in terms of mostly dry weather with near normal temperatures. The surface high is forecast to remain positioned off the New England coast, while ridging aloft is re-established across the Northeast. A slow-moving frontal system will continue to gradually inch eastward from the Great Lakes. The front may get close enough to provide enough forcing for scattered showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Highs looks to be close to normal ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to upper 60s in valleys. Better moisture(PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV) and forcing start to arrive Sat night, especially late in the overnight, as the upper ridge axis breaks down with a stronger short wave moving in from the west. Will mention likely PoPs west of the Hudson Valley and chance east. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to near 50. Southerly flow increases ahead of the front as it advances into western NY on Sunday. Moisture will continue to surge northward ahead of the boundary, with the aforementioned short wave trough aloft moving eastward across the region. This will result in showers likely across the entire area for much of the day. With the clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, it will be a cool/raw day with highs only in the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Rainfall amounts generally look to be around 0.50-1.00", with the max focused on the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. These rainfall amounts will not cause any hydro concerns. The surface front and short wave aloft move into New England Sun night, with showers tapering off from west to east mainly during the evening. At this time it appears the overnight hours should be mainly dry with high pressure building from the west and a developing W-NW flow ushering in drier air. Lows expected to be similar to recent nights with mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term begins at 12z Monday with the cold front departing off to our east. There could be a few lingering showers around during the morning, especially across western New England, but overall we should see a drying trend as we head through the day. Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper ridging amplifies to our west with upper troughing to our north in southeast Canada. This will lead to upper confluence near our region and allow a ridge of high pressure to build in from the northwest. With large-scale subsidence, Monday afternoon through Tuesday should be dry. With cold/dry advection and deep mixing behind the front, we bumped temperatures up a few degrees above NBM guidance. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from upper 60s in the high terrain to mid/upper 70s for the valleys. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the 40s to 50s. Tuesday night through Thursday night...A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing with it a chance for some showers. However, the exact timing of the warm front remains uncertain at this time. Beyond that, we get into a pattern with broad, positively tilted upper troughing over the center of the country and flat upper ridging to our east. This puts our region in an area of deep, persistent SW flow aloft. With an active jet stream to our west/northwest, there will be several disturbances aloft tracking through our area over the middle to end of next week. While it is too early to specifically time out any of these features, Wednesday through the end of next week looks to be unsettled, so will mention chance PoPs for the entirety of the second half of the long term period. Some thunder may be possible depending on the timing of these disturbances relative to peak daytime heating. With persistent southwest flow and warm advection, highs each day will be in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. The second half of the week also looks more humid compared to Monday and Tuesday. For days 8-14, we may remain in an unsettled pattern with the CPC expecting above normal precip and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z Saturday...Flying conditions remain VFR at all TAF sites as of 1:20 AM EDT, although low stratus is expanding west/southwestward from wester New England and will likely result in at least periods of MVFR and possibly fuel alternate cigs from late tonight through early this morning. Stratus will likely first develop at GFL and PSF by 8z, and then at ALB and POU between 8-10z. Some pockets with brief IFR cigs can't completely be ruled out, especially at ALB and PSF, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Low stratus should break up by 13-15z this morning, with VFR conditions and FEW to SCT mid-level clouds from mid-morning through at least the end of the TAF period. Winds will be at 5 kt or less from the east/northeast through the next few hours, increasing to 5-10 kt from the east/northeast towards sunrise lasting through mid-morning. By mid-to late morning, winds switch to the southeast at 5-10 kt. Winds remain southeasterly at 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF period at ALB/GFL/PSF, but become light and variable at POU after sunset. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Main ####018007393#### FXUS61 KRNK 030733 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 333 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal system over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys will move east, bringing clouds, scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms to our region later today, these showers becoming more prolific this weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures today will transition to somewhat cooler conditions this weekend as clouds and an easterly wind become established over the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Continued unseasonably warm today. 2. Increasing clouds today with showers arriving across the mountains during the afternoon. 3. Scattered showers areawide tonight with isolated thunderstorms. A cold front stretches from the Southern Plains into the western Great Lakes with low pressure centered near Chicago. A warm front extended east from the low across the northern Mid- Atlantic. Within the warm sector temperatures were well above the seasonal norm with both temperatures and dewpoints more like late spring or early summer. As we transition through the next 24 hours, the airmass will get a little more humid as south winds ahead of the approaching mid-west cold front bring higher dewpoints into the region. There will be an increase in cloud cover to go along with the increasing moisture and at some point, early-mid afternoon for the mountains, we should begin to see development of shower activity. Models suggest the best chance for showers today will be west of I-77 from the NC High Country northward through Mount Rogers and far southwest Virginia, and along and west of the Appalachian Divide in West Virginia. There may also be some showers along the warm front north of I-64. To the south and east of these favored areas, most of the day should remain dry with temperatures attempting a repeat of yesterday. Forecast numbers reflect readings well above normal with highs in the mid-upper 80s for the piedmont and upper 70s to lower 80s for the mountains. For tonight, the showers should begin to spill east of the Blue Ridge with increasing chances as the front to our west gets closer, in addition to areas to our northeast. As the upper ridge near the Atlantic coast breaks down, expect warm front to our north to become a back-door cool front, a northeast to easterly surge of wind accompanying this feature as it moves south through the piedmont early tonight. By Saturday morning, all areas east of the mountains should transition to a cooler northeast to easterly wind. In spite of the cooling trend, overnight temperatures will continue to favor the warmer side of normal. Thunderstorm threat today and tonight looks minimal. Even with daytime heating today, CAPE for our forecast area is not expected to exceed 1000 j/kg. For now will advertise isolated thunder threat, but nothing severe. && .SHORT TERM /This Weekend/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout this upcoming weekend. 2) A marginal risk of flooding exists on Saturday and Saturday night. A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains during Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward, but the highest chances and coverage are more likely by Saturday afternoon and evening. Due to the prevalent moisture expected in the atmosphere, some of these storms could produce heavy downpours. While antecedent conditions are rather dry, the storms could train over the same locations as the cold front slows upon crossing the Blue Ridge. Consequently, a marginal risk of flooding exists during late Saturday into Saturday night. The primary area of low pressure with this cold front will stay well to the north across eastern Canada. While the northern part of the cold front will eventually head offshore, the southern part will become parallel with the zonal upper level flow and stall across the Mid Atlantic. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will start a little below normal for highs on Saturday but trend warmer by Sunday, but lows should remain quite elevated due to the prevalence of cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will trend warmer as the week progresses. With a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Mid Atlantic, several waves of low pressure will track eastward to bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some upper level ridging should occur by the middle of the week, which will push temperatures above normal but fuel more instability for convection. Deciphering which days will be the most active for showers and thunderstorms remains difficult due to the subtle timing differences of these waves of low pressure in the models. The frontal boundary may budge northward as a warm front towards Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though a cold front may arrive by Thursday, there does not appear to be any appreciable change in the air mass to end this unsettled pattern. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Widespread VFR conditions at all terminals this morning, with VFR expected through most of the day. Cirrus will be on the increase today with scattered afternoon high based cumulus. At some point the cumulus may form a lower cloud base with opportunity for showers later in the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along and west of the Blue Ridge. Showers will gradually overspread the entire region tonight in addition to a few thunderstorms. Sever weather is not anticipated, but do expect lowering cloud bases tonight with transition to MVFR and possibly IFR by daybreak Saturday morning. Light/calm winds expected early this morning, becoming south southwesterly late morning and early afternoon 5-8kts. A backdoor cold front will introduce a northeast wind across areas east of the mountains tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook... Rain showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR TSRA/SHRA at times. There is also a chance for LIFR associated with development of easterly upslope wind vcnty of the Blue Ridge which may impact terminals for Saturday and Sunday. Unsettled weather is expected next week. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA continue Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR ceilings/ visibilities. Easterly winds this weekend will shift back around to the south and southwest for Monday and Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...PM