####018007962#### FXUS63 KMQT 041151 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 751 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain overspreading the UP from west to east today as a low pressure system approaches from the central Plains. -The UP remains under the preferred path for low pressure systems, with multiple notable features passing through the next week. -In between systems, dry conditions will be expected, though mostly low winds and antecedent rainfall should broadly limit fire concerns. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 454 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Increasing clouds continue to stream into western portions of Upper Michigan early this morning per latest water vapor imagery. As a low pressure system continues its northeastward propagation toward the UP from the central Plains, that cloud cover will continue to overspread the eastern half of the forecast area as well today. And, an uptick in isentropic ascent will commence over the western counties by mid-morning as well, resulting in 30-50% rain chances by Sat 15Z in the Ironwood area. Just like the cloud cover, these rain showers will make their way eastward through the morning and afternoon hours with increasing rain probabilities over much of Upper Michigan by late afternoon. Nonetheless, the eastern third of the UP should have enough time to warm into the low 70s, unlike the western third which will struggle to reach 60 degrees with earlier onset of rain. Currently, temperatures across the area are ranging from the upper 30s across the interior to as high as the upper 40s to mid 50s along the Lake Superior lakeshore. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 436 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Starting tonight, a broad trough will expand over the Upper Midwest and central Canada with a ridge over the eastern U.S. coast and a closed low over the western U.S. coast. A shortwave riding the middle trough will be progressing eastward over the U.P. with another shortwave not long behind it over Manitoba. The associated cold front finish progressing east across the U.P. by Sunday morning, bringing a line of showers eastward as well as a brief period of northeast gusts to 20-25 mph; a few rumbles of thunder are possible mainly earlier in the period. Lows overnight are expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmest east where the cloud cover is expected to hold on the longest. The second shortwave passes just north of Lake Superior on Sunday, but no precip is expected as sfc high pressure builds in over the Upper Great Lakes. This should see cloud cover diminish, light winds, and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s; warmest south central. Mixing increasing in the afternoon, stronger over the interior west, will bring RHs down around 40% in the east/Keweenaw with near 30-35% in the interior west. No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. With mid level ridging moving east over the Great Lakes and high pressure shifting to expand over the entire basin, the quiet weather continues with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Meanwhile, the closed low will have made it onshore and moved east over the Rockies, beginning to open up into a trough and take on a negative tilt. By Monday morning, the trough will be situated just over the lee side of the Rockies. High pressure means another dry day with better mixing up to ~850 mb. Stronger winds mixing down from aloft are not going to be an issue, but lower dew points will be. Minimum RHs are expected around 30-35% in the afternoon/evening hours. With highs in the upper 50s to low 70s, cooler by the lakeshores, we flirt with borderline elevated fire weather conditions. Will want to monitor these conditions in future forecast packages. The trough is expected to pivot northeast over the Plains through Monday night supporting sfc low cyclogenesis, but the U.P. stays dry yet. Monday night will be warmer than the previous night with temps only settling into the 40s, warmer in the west as clouds increase ahead of the next system. Chances for showers increase in the far west on Tuesday with increasing q-vector convergence, but likely will hold off until late morning/early afternoon when the trough begins to develop back into a closed low over the northern Plains. PVA over our region increases at this point into Wednesday morning as a shortwave cycles around the low, eventually passing northeast over the Upper Great Lakes. An approaching left exit region of the upper level jet also looks to support additional cyclogenesis over the Central Plains Tuesday night. This second sfc low then lifts northeast on Tuesday, crossing northeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday night resulting in an uptick in PoPs Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the stronger sfc low associated with the mid level low will spin over the Northern Plains. With the given spread in the guidance, opted to leave the NBM PoPs Tuesday onward. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence remains low at this point given the spotty instability noted in the guidance; best chances are on Tuesday when the mid level lapse rates and bulk shear are higher. Slight chances for showers gradually diminish through the end of the work week as we begin to see a pattern shift. Longer range ensemble guidance hints at positive 500 mb height anomalies over the western U.S. with negative height anomalies moving toward the east coast toward the latter part of May. This means less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to support precip chances and cooler northwest flow over the Great Lakes. The drier trend is captured well by CPC precip outlooks out to 3-4 weeks with a cooler pattern more within the next 8-14 days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 750 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR and possible IFR starting this morning at IWD as rain overspreads Upper Michigan from west to east. CMX and SAW will have later rain onset times though and thus VFR conditions until late afternoon/early evening. At that point, look for MVFR/IFR conditions at those TAF sites as well into tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 436 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Southwest winds this morning become northwest mid morning over the west half of Lake Superior as a weak low pressure lifts northeast into the region. Winds across the rest of the lake turn northeast behind a cold front this evening as the low lifts northeast into northern Ontario. The eastern portions of Lake Superior could briefly see some northwest wind gusts up to 25 kt tonight into Sunday morning. As high pressure settles over the lake Sunday and Monday, winds will be below 20 kt until Monday afternoon. A strong low pressure system over the Northern Great Plains will cause gusty northeasterly winds to funnel towards Duluth Harbor to around 20-25 kts monday afternoon into Monday night. Meanwhile, a second weaker low pressure develops over the Central Plains, lifting northeast toward the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The track and timing of this secondary low is still not totally solid, but east winds to 20-30 kts are likely Tuesday into Tuesday evening as it moves through the Great Lakes Basin. Probability of Gales remains low at this time. (<20% chance of winds exceeding 34 kts). Winds look to hold around 15-25 kts through the rest of the work week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...Jablonski ####018013227#### FXUS65 KABQ 041155 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 555 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front is currently racing southwestward over the plains of New Mexico and toward the Rio Grande valley and eventually the Continental Divide. This will lead to very gusty winds in eastern Albuquerque, particularly this morning. As the front encounters moisture in the east central to southeastern plains this afternoon, it is expected to lead to shower and thunderstorm development with a few strong or even severe storms possible. Windy south and southwest winds will then develop on Sunday with drier air overtaking western and central areas of New Mexico. The dry air will spread into eastern areas of the state by Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions remaining common. The dry and windy conditions could lead to high fire danger and rapid fire spread Sunday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A gusty backdoor cold front surging south and southwestward through the eastern plains will push through gaps in the central mountain chain early this morning with a fairly strong east wind below canyons opening into the central valleys. Gusts will probably reach around 45 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, up to 40 mph in the Santa Fe and Carrizozo areas. The strong gap winds should taper off during late morning. Meanwhile, areas of low clouds over the far eastern plains should break up by late morning. This afternoon and evening, a disturbance crossing in southwest flow aloft will interact with low level moisture delivered by the backdoor front to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. Shear and instability look sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms east of the central mountain chain and south of I-40, where large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, over northwest areas, and in the Albuquerque area, some thunderstorms will produce dry microbursts with little or no rain and localized/erratic gusts up to 50 mph. Late tonight, as the disturbance gradually exits eastern NM, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible mainly east of the central mountain chain. A few showers could linger over northeast and east central areas into Sunday morning. Otherwise, high temperatures will fall a few to as much as 15 degrees this afternoon across central and eastern areas compared to Friday's readings. Temperatures should then rebound a few to 9 degrees there on Sunday. A strong low pressure system crossing the Great Basin on Sunday will strengthen the flow aloft over NM. There will also be ample atmospheric mixing as high temperatures climb near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, enabling wind gusts to reach 40-55 mph across northern, central, and eastern parts of the forecast area during the afternoon, and up to 35 mph across the southeast. Meanwhile, humidities will drop into the single digits across central and western areas, where fire weather concerns will be widespread. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 The upper low will pull away from the Great Basin and toward the central to northern Rockies Sunday night. This will drag the mid level jet across NM during this time, somewhat of a good thing, as it will not be crossing during peak heating which will limit the potential of strong surface winds. Still, with a broad area of 700 mb flow expected to reach 40 to 55 kt, initially from the southwest, then turning westerly after the frontal passage, there should be very gusty winds on ridge tops and peaks through Monday morning with the potential for some mountain wave activity. The bulk of the stronger forcing aloft will be drug into CO with generally fringe showers expected along the NM-CO border Sunday night into Monday. Even while the primary vort lobe pivots into the northern Great Plains Monday, there will be enough of a longwave trough getting carved out to keep stiff westerlies going over NM through the afternoon while temperatures run cooler by several degrees. This upper level trend of stiff westerly flow aloft over NM will continue into Tuesday and even Wednesday while the low loops around the Dakotas and MT/WY. Lee-side surface lows will redevelop each day, keeping a sufficient gradient in place with a well- mixed boundary layer that will transport the stronger momentum aloft toward the surface. The placement of the upper low on Wednesday will allow a satellite vort lobe to orbit around and clip NM. This will bring slightly cooler air in with more of a northwesterly wind component for several zones late Wednesday. Subsequent shortwaves on the western side of the decaying central plains low will coalesce with notable pressure falls over UT/NV on Thursday. This help draw in an easterly surface wind component to at least northeastern NM during the day before much more of the state is overtaken Thursday night. This scenario would moisten up the eastern half of NM (at least with regard to dewpoints and surface humidity) while perturbed westerly flow aloft overrides some of this moist easterly low level flow in the northern tier of NM. This could reintroduce precipitation chances for northern mountain and surrounding highland zones both Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A backdoor cold front will continue to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong east canyon wind in the central valleys from Santa Fe southward this morning. Gusts up to 35 KT will be possible at KSAF and Carrizozo, and around 40 KT at KABQ. Meanwhile, areas of low clouds producing MVFR and IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain will continue through much of the morning before dissipating. The gusty east canyon winds will weaken some while persisting through the afternoon. The east winds are forecast to strengthen again this evening. This afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over northern, central and and eastern parts of the forecast area. Some storms are likely to produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado over southeast areas. Meanwhile, some cells over the continental divide region and Albuquerque Saturday afternoon and early evening will be capable of producing dry microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Tonight, low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions look to become widespread east of the central mountain chain, where showers and some thunderstorms may linger. The east canyon wind will probably also blow these low clouds into KSAF during the late night hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...FIRE GROWING PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Higher humidities over eastern areas will spread into central areas as well this morning as a gusty backdoor front plunges into the central valley with a strong gap wind. The increased moisture will enable scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across northern and eastern areas this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will produce dry microbursts with erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph across the continental divide region of northwest NM this afternoon, then into the Albuquerque area during the early evening. A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop Sunday through mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire weather conditions. With this forecast package will keep the Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch going over central and western areas for Sunday, and issue a Fire Weather Watch for the entire fire weather forecast area on Monday. However, the winds look to kick in significantly later over western areas than eastern areas, so will stagger the start times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 46 76 39 / 20 10 0 5 Dulce........................... 73 35 74 32 / 20 30 0 20 Cuba............................ 69 40 74 36 / 20 20 0 5 Gallup.......................... 75 38 74 32 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 69 38 71 34 / 20 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 36 76 37 / 20 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 39 72 36 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 74 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 42 71 39 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 37 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 50 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 35 67 27 / 40 30 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 68 47 71 43 / 20 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 66 44 73 41 / 20 30 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 43 67 40 / 30 20 0 10 Red River....................... 61 34 64 31 / 50 30 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 60 31 66 34 / 40 20 10 10 Taos............................ 70 36 73 40 / 20 20 0 5 Mora............................ 63 38 71 40 / 20 30 20 10 Espanola........................ 76 46 79 45 / 20 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 70 46 75 44 / 10 30 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 47 78 42 / 10 20 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 52 80 49 / 10 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 49 81 48 / 5 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 48 84 43 / 5 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 49 82 48 / 5 20 0 0 Belen........................... 81 44 84 47 / 5 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 78 49 83 46 / 10 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 80 44 84 44 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 79 49 84 47 / 5 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 80 45 84 45 / 5 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 73 49 78 47 / 10 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 78 49 82 47 / 5 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 46 72 43 / 10 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 45 76 45 / 10 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 71 44 77 44 / 10 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 42 78 43 / 10 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 65 42 73 39 / 10 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 71 41 75 45 / 10 10 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 71 41 76 47 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 48 79 53 / 10 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 69 44 73 47 / 20 20 0 5 Capulin......................... 61 40 69 43 / 10 20 10 10 Raton........................... 68 41 74 42 / 10 20 10 10 Springer........................ 67 43 75 45 / 10 20 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 65 43 74 43 / 20 40 20 10 Clayton......................... 65 44 74 52 / 0 20 10 10 Roy............................. 66 46 73 49 / 10 40 20 10 Conchas......................... 72 51 80 55 / 10 50 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 69 49 77 50 / 20 50 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 50 79 56 / 10 50 20 10 Clovis.......................... 73 52 79 55 / 40 40 10 10 Portales........................ 73 52 79 55 / 30 50 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 73 51 81 54 / 30 50 5 5 Roswell......................... 81 56 87 56 / 30 50 5 5 Picacho......................... 73 49 84 52 / 20 30 0 5 Elk............................. 75 45 82 51 / 20 20 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>122-124. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ101-105-109. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ104-106-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44