####018010085#### FXUS61 KAKQ 030804 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure still anchored over the Atlantic off the coast of the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is located just to the north of the local area. Aloft, an amplified ridge extends into Canada with its axis just to the west of the FA. Temps this morning will be fairly mild with temps remaining in the 60s for most places (upper 50s in the NW). The backdoor front will sag south today, creating non-diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. For most locations W of the bay, expect temps to quickly warm into the low 80s by mid- morning, while the Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore remain cool in the upper 50s-low 60s. Through the afternoon, cooler temps will spread inland. Mid-afternoon temps will be in the 50s on the Eastern Shore, 60s across the peninsulas and the SE coast, while the central and southern piedmont will be in the mid-upper 80s. Clouds will increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the piedmont this afternoon, but CAMs indicate isolated coverage. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday - Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday. Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95. The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast. Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday. - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week. By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM Friday... VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 06z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise this morning, allowing winds to turn NE, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW today, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Flight restrictions (primarily low CIGs) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front. -Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night. Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog. Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond. Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/MRD LONG TERM...AM/MRD AVIATION...AM/MAM MARINE...LKB/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018006742#### FXUS65 KGJT 030805 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 205 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A system will brush the northern tier of eastern Utah and western Colorado today, bringing a few valley rain and mountain snow showers. Minor accumulations are expected with little to no impacts. - Scattered showers are possible late Saturday mainly in the mountains. Elsewhere expect warmer and dry conditions. - A strong system is expected on Sunday and Monday. It will bring widespread precipitation and strong winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A shortwave trough will pass just north of the CWA later today. It will bring a cold front and enough moisture for scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. The best chances for showers is along and north of the highway 40 corridor, but a few could reach as far as I-70 with little to no accumulation there. The northern mountains look to receive a bulk of the precipitation as well as the upper Yampa valley. Snow levels will range from 7-8 kft, but given most of this falls during the day snow should cause to limited impacts. Showers enter the area from Wyoming later this morning and continue pushing eastward this afternoon before exiting this evening. The prefrontal jet is quite strong with this system so daytime mixing and virga showers will allow these winds to reach the surface. This afternoon most locations see gusts over 25 mph, but they could be as high was 40-50 mph in spots. Right now that appears to be along and just north of I-70 from Rifle to Vail. Temperatures will be rather seasonable across the southern half of the area. Up north clouds and precip will keeps things cooler than normal. Conditions dry out tonight due to a lack of lift, but the moisture never really leaves the region. A weak shortwave sneaks up from the southwest tomorrow during the day. It along with the moisture will support convection later in the day. The best chances for showers will be the southern and central mountains. The QPF is on the low side so impacts should be minimal. Temperatures recover and warm in this southwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Any lingering showers from Saturday afternoon along the Continental Divide mountains should diminish during the overnight hours Saturday night. After a warm day, nighttime temperatures will be quite mild with lows roughly 10 degrees above seasonal norms. For Sunday, attention quickly turns to a large and deep mid-level closed low pressure system that will be tracking across the Great Basin to round out the weekend. Ahead of this system, a tightening pressure gradient... along with a pronounced southwesterly mid and upper level jet with wind speeds of 40 to 50 kts at 700mb and over 100 kts at 250mb... will punch into eastern Utah and western Colorado Sunday afternoon. Strong diabatic heating will support deep boundary layer mixing, resulting in the efficient transport of very strong winds aloft down to the surface. Frequent surface wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are likely to be common, with max gusts up to 60 mph in the valleys and 80 mph in the high elevations not ruled out. These are the types of setups that often produce our high end wind events here, so wind highlights are almost certainly going to be needed at some point. For now, keep an eye to the forecast and be prepared for a very windy day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday, models are highlighting a strong shortwave and vort max rounding the base of the closed low now over the northern Rockies, taking on a negative tilt, and swinging across eastern Utah and western Colorado. This potent and dynamic feature will also be accompanied by a strong cold front as it blasts through Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of and along the front, fairly widespread showers are expected to break out as moisture, surface convergence, and large scale forcing for ascent increases and becomes maximized. Right now, guidance is pointing towards the heaviest precipitation being confined to the central and northern Colorado mountains where QPF amounts of 0.50" to 1.00" are progged... with lesser amounts of 0.25" or less elsewhere. The air mass will initially be very warm, as evidenced by snow levels well above 9000 to 10000 feet, but will quickly cool to between 5000 and 6000 feet by early Monday morning in the wake of the front. No doubt the mountains way up high will see some snow from this system, but how much entirely depends on how much precip is left once the colder air moves in. Since this will be a fast moving system, and most of the significant precipitation will be over with by Monday afternoon, there's likely just not enough time when the highest QPF amounts and the colder air overlap. However, if there's one place where snow accumulations may be fairly decent, it's in the highest elevations of the Park Range as cold, upslope, orographic, northwesterly flow and another wave on Tuesday may allow snow to pile up in excess of 6 and possibly 12 inches. Beyond Tuesday, the rest of the long term period likely remains unsettled with deterministic models and ensembles highlighting continued troughing across the Intermountain West. Showers in the high country will probably be a daily occurrence, particularly across the northern Colorado mountains. Elsewhere, the big story will be the cooler than normal temperatures with highs largely in the 50s and 60s down low, and 30s and 40s up high. Overall, the synoptics driving the pattern next week are chaotic and likely to be influenced by mesoscale processes and convection. As a result, expect to see some changes in the forecast and for the finer details to remain unclear until we get closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR should hold over the next 24 hours though cigs will be lowering up north in the afternoon as the next system works through. KHDN should see a passing shower with an outside chance of MVFR conditions by mid afternoon but confidence low at this point. Gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 40 mph are again expected most areas by late morning as well. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...TGJT ####018007663#### FXUS64 KHGX 030805 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 305 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The current "lull" in shower/storm activity across SE Texas looks to be coming to an end, as isolated shower/storms have begun to develop across the region. High-resolution models indicate rain chances increasing throughout this morning as a shortwave passes overhead, tapping into rich PWs of 1.75-2.00" to bring more showers/thunderstorms across the region. While the mesoscale environment will make things messy, guidance seems to hint at two main "clusters" of storms developing with this next wave. The first cluster appears to develop over the southern half of our CWA, talking on an E/NE track. While closer to the primary moisture axis, models seem to suggest more modest rainfall rates in this cluster. Meanwhile, the second cluster looks to develop further north over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, tacking Southeasterly. Forcing with this system appears to be a tad more robust, located in the vicinity of the left exit region of the upper level subtropical jet, which also appears to coincide with a convergence zone with the 925mb LLJ during the afternoon. Some short term guidance suggests that rainfall rates would be higher in this cluster. Crest shows swaths of soil moisture in excess of 40% in areas north of I-10, peaking in excess of 70% over portions of Walker & Trinity counties. RFC 1hr FFG for much of this same area is around 1.5-2.5", though lower values of under 0.5" encompass portions of Liberty/Harris counties. Overall the heavy rainfall threat will still encompass most of SE Texas, with a Flood Watch remaining in effect for most areas North of I-10 until 7 PM Tonight. The threat of heavy rainfall remains greatest early this morning, where WPC still has SE Texas under a Moderate (level 3/4) to Slight (level 2/4) risk of Excessive Rainfall. The threat of excessive rainfall subsequently decreases during the late morning/early afternoon to a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) Risk. Flood Warnings and River Flood warnings are ongoing across the region, and any additional heavy rainfall may further exasperate hydrological problems. Be careful while driving and avoid any flooded roadways. There looks to be a short reprieve from rainfall later today, with showers/storms tapering off this evening/tonight. Guidance still suggests the possibility of showers/storms developing again early Saturday morning, though the risk of excessive rainfall remains Marginal (level 1/4) during this period, mainly in our North/Northwestern Zones. Ample moisture and lifting from disturbances aloft will enable rain chances and flooding concerns to persist into the long term forecast. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough moves north of the area. At the surface, a weak boundary (warm front) will lift northward into SE TX during the day. Increasing theta-e advection, sufficient moisture and instability will lead to increasing precipitation chances during the day. Unfortunately, the bulk of this activity looks to occur again north of I-10; however, rainfall totals are progged to remain around a half inch or less. The main weather story in the medium range evolves in the increased heat risk. A relatively dry weather is expected through most of the week. However, a quasi-zonal flow aloft, and south to southwest flow at the surface will lead to above normal temperatures. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens to mid 20s degC range during the week, suggesting highs in the 90s. Based on latest models solutions, Thursday is shaping up to be one of the hottest days with highs generally into the mid 90s. These values are within the 99th percentile of climatology per NAEFS and GEFS. These readings are progged to be 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 While MVFR ceilings are starting to settle in across SE TX tonight, shower/storms across Central TX are continuing to make their way to the east. Initial model runs are indicating that this activity could reach the W/NW portions of the CWA as we approach sunrise. Did keep with the mention of VCSH during the very early morning...then transitioning to VCTS for the afternoon. S to SE winds will remain some what elevated at 4-9kts tonight...11-19 kts by tomorrow afternoon. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Moderate southeast winds, seas between 3 to 6 ft and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Gusts from 15 to 20 knots will be possible at times, stronger around any thunderstorms. Therefore, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Conditions will continua today for all bays and Gulf waters. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6 ft should remain through the weekend and into the upcoming week. Seas can reach advisory levels (around 7 ft) at times well offshore. Rain and storm chances decrease during the weekend, bringing benign marine conditions into next week. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage: - Trinity River (Madisonville): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Major Flood Stage - Caney Creek (Splendora): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Minor forecast to go to Major - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major - Peach Creek (Splendora): Moderate forecast to go to Major - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Moderate forecast to go to Major Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.  JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 71 84 71 / 50 10 20 30 Houston (IAH) 83 72 84 73 / 50 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 / 50 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200- 212-213-300-313. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...41 MARINE...JM HYDROLOGY...JM ####018006880#### FXUS62 KILM 030807 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 407 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Still expecting fog development this morning, although confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours, especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM. Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While these values aren't far off climatological values for early May, the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings. Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea breeze, but the region will remain dry. Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday. As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front. Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing moisture depth, even in weak instability. Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the increased cloud cover. Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s. A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight with similar morning lows; mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight. Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday. Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still expecting IFR fog/ceilings to develop along the coast, although it may take a bit longer than last night. Boundary layer winds are slightly stronger compared to 24 hours ago, but do think coastal terminals will start seeing IFR develop around 09Z. IFR conditions will gradually spread inland, but may fail to reach LBT before sunrise. IFR that does develop will quickly dissipate with most areas VFR by 13Z. VFR persists through the day with light southerly winds seeing a bit of enhancement near shore from the afternoon sea breeze. Extended Outlook... Early morning ground fog and low ceilings are possible Sunday. Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell. Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots. Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...III MARINE...III/21 ####018006416#### FXUS61 KCLE 030807 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make slow progress east across the area today with the warm front lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore. The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection. Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore to near 80 in the southeastern counties. A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the 1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8 degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of temperature expected. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Thunderstorms will continue to impact TOL through approximately 0630Z and then it seems a break in is likely for several hours. A warm front is located from west central Indiana towards Dayton, OH. This warm front will lift north into the area this morning bringing a continued chance of showers. Timing of thunderstorms will be a challenge through the daytime hours as the area continues to moisten with a slow moving area of low pressure drifting east across Central Ohio. There will be a little more time for heating across north central and northeast Ohio and have included a Tempo for thunderstorms between 17-23Z in Ohio, and as late as 02Z at ERI. The airmass will be moist so heavy rain and IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, ceilings will tend to be VFR until after 02Z when a weak cold front settles south into the area. Expect ceilings to trend towards MVFR towards the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period and somewhat variable. Broad low pressure will result in easterly winds ahead of the low, backing to northeasterly near the lakeshore, and eventually westerly behind the low. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through this Tuesday. && .MARINE... East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks to several frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or less for the bulk of the forecast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KEC MARINE...26 ####018006689#### FXUS66 KMTR 030809 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 109 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1243 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front will bring rain, gusty winds, and colder temperatures on Saturday. Dry weather returns Sunday as a gradual warming trend kicks off. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A shallow marine layer will bring low stratus to coastal areas and adjacent valleys Friday morning. High temperatures will depend on whether a location is in or out of the marine layer. For example, Pt. Reyes is only expected to reach 56 degrees today, while Santa Rosa will flirt with 80, and enjoy ample sunshine. By the afternoon, an approaching cold front will cause the winds to increase, with rain reaching the North Bay early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A gale force, 997 mb, vertically stacked low pressure system is currently near the Gulf of Alaska. This system will be driven southeast by a 150 kt jet stream through Saturday. This strong jet max will also create divergence aloft, allowing the surface pressure to remain steady or even decrease slightly as the system loses latitude. The low center is expected to come ashore near Northern California or Southern Oregon early Saturday morning. An associated cold front will cross the Bay Area through the day Saturday. This frontal passage will bring periods of rain and gusty winds as it ushers in a new, colder air mass. Precipitable water values are expected to be above 1" on Saturday, with some guidance as high as 1.25". As the cold, dense air lifts this moisture, rain clouds will develop. The total QPF is holding pretty steady with most places expected to receive around 0.5" on Saturday. While not a total wash-out, this is a significant amount for May, which has monthly normal rainfall pretty close to the expected amount from this one system. During the afternoon OAK balloon launch Thursday, the 1000-700 mb thickness was measured at 2967 m. This new air mass will drop the that to around 2815 m, according to the NAM point sounding. By Sunday morning, NAM has the 700 mb temperature down to -12.7C, which is well below the 10th percentile (-5.2 C) and even the daily minimum (-9.9 C) from May 5, 1988. Note the 1000-500 mb thickness drop isn't as impressive due to more flat mid-level lapse rates. This suggests that any convection that takes advantage of the cold air aloft will be low-topped, even by Bay Area standards. Additionally, the coldest mid-level air arrives overnight Saturday/early Sunday during the diurnal minimum. These two factors should limit the potential for thunderstorms, although a slight chance remains. Finally, this system will bring a noticeable drop in temperature, especially for inland areas. Friday will feature inland temps in the mid to upper 70s. 24 hours later, these same places will be stuck in the upper 50s or low 60s. Beyond Saturday, the forecast is more straight forward. Ridging from subtropical high pressure builds in Sunday which will gradually transition to the standard coastal trough set-up by mid next week. This pattern will bring the return of dry weather, lots of sunshine, and a gradual warming trend. Coastal areas may reach the low 70s and some inland areas will be in the 80s by late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs have pushed slightly inland affecting the Monterey Bay terminals and SFO. Winds ease into the late night becoming light to moderate. Cloud cover thins in the mid to late morning Friday, leading to widespread VFR. Gusty westerly winds arrive Friday afternoon and last into the night. As winds reduce, low clouds move into the coast and bays Friday night, leading IFR CIGs spreading farther inland. Winds turn southwesterly as showers approach the region into early Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...Moments of IFR CIGs through the late night. Expect moderate westerly winds to reduce into early Friday morning. Scattered lower clouds linger into the mid morning. Gusty west winds build into Friday afternoon, peaking around 27 kts and gusting above 30 kts. Winds reduce into late Friday evening, but remain breezy until they shift and become southwesterly with the arriving showers. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR through the mid to late morning. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning before moderate to breezy winds arrive Friday afternoon. IFR CIGs return Friday evening as winds reduce. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 858 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024 Gusty winds persist throughout Friday afternoon, with gale force gusts of 35 to 45 knots possible in the southern waters. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 10 to 13 feet in the outer waters. Conditions briefly improve over the weekend, but will increase into next week to more moderate levels. Rain chances begin late Friday night as a trough descends over the region into Saturday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea