####018005784#### FXUS61 KBGM 041333 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 933 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Updated pops and sky cover a bit with the mid morning update, forecast discussion below on track. 630 am update... Increased pops in the southern tier and Bradford county where rain has moved into the area for now. Cameras show the road is wet. Light rain/sprinkles coming out of a 10k deck. Increased cloud cover since it is cloudy everywhere. There could be some breaks still midday after the rain retreats back south for a few hours. 330 am update... A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period. With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 342 AM Update... Showers associated with an upper level disturbance will be exiting the area Sunday night, with the best shower chances lingering back across the Catskills and Poconos. However, a weakening cold front will remain to our west, and this will keep a small chance of rain showers in the picture through the night, although upper level support will be lacking. The front itself will weaken into a surface trough and drag itself across the area on Monday and more or less dissipate as it reaches the coast. A few pop-up showers will be possible across NE PA as the trough slowly drifts through the area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will recover significantly from Sunday, with highs expected in the upper-60s to lower-70s across the area. High pressure will build in Monday night, with ideal conditions for radiational cooling dropping temps into the lower to middle 40s across the area, with 50s hanging on in the Wyoming Valley. Weak upper level ridging will make for fair weather on Tuesday, with highs climbing a few more degrees, into the middle to upper-70s. Some moisture riding well ahead of the next system will try to sneak in from the south, but shower chances look to stay out of the area until Tuesday night when a developing warm front drifts north across the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 342 AM Update... Low pressure over eastern Ontario will push a cold front through the area on Wednesday. The warm sector with this system looks rather narrow, with not much time between the overnight warm frontal passage and the cold fropa. As a result, instability will be weak, though a few thunderstorms will still be possible. The back half of Wednesday may end up fairly dry as precip may push east of the area early in the afternoon. The remainder of the period looks unsettled, as a positively tilted trough hangs back across Quebec and into the Great Lakes, keeping SW flow aloft in place across the Northeastern CONUS. A series of upper level disturbances, and an active jet stream to our north will keep periods of rain in the forecast, though the details are rather unclear. Leaned heavily on the NBM from Thursday onwards. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 650 AM Update VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from south to north late today and tonight to MVFR and even IFR. AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around 20z. Fuel alternate around 00z, then IFR around 05z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z then fuel alternate around 01z. IFR around 06z. ITH drops to MVFR around 00z then fuel alt 04z. SYR/RME fall to MVFR around 05z then fuel alt at 07z. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20 kts. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...Periods of rain and flight restrictions continue across the entire forecast area. MVFR/IFR. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...TAC ####018006287#### FXUS61 KBTV 041334 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 934 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region today and will bring one more day of dry and mild weather. Widespread rainfall returns for Sunday, and some isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, particularly over northern New York. A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 930 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains in overall great shape. Only minor change was to decrease sky cover as visible satellite and webcams show breaks in clouds. In fact, some of the latest hi-res guidance shows potential for mostly sunny skies to return owing to the omega block or strong upper ridging developing over New England that is helping to mitigate the cloudiness from the light maritime flow from coastal New England. Previous Discussion...An occluded front is currently decaying as it is moving across the North Country due to a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the region. The front has been able to bring a couple showers to northern New York, but those should mostly fall apart before they reach Vermont. Light southeasterly flow is helping to advect a cooler maritime airmass into areas east of the Greens and it is creating a relatively sharp temperature gradient tonight. Lows east of the greens will be in the 40s but the in the Champlain and St. lawrence Valleys, temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 50s. Any showers over northern New York should fall apart by daybreak so Saturday will be a mostly dry day. Some high clouds will linger into the day but they should be thin enough to allow a decent amount of sunshine, particularly over Vermont. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to around 70, very similar to yesterday. Another front slowly moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday, and with some connection to gulf moisture, it will bring more meaningful precipitation. Most areas should see up to around a half inch of rain so there are no flooding concerns. Some elevated instability should develop during the day on Sunday, particularly over northern New York, so some thunderstorms and heavier convective showers are possible. However, there is no severe threat. A southerly low-level jet will pass over the region on Sunday and will cause some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust up to 30 kts over Lake Champlain. However, winds will be limited by the water temperatures being colder than the air and by the strongest winds occurring when the precipitation is falling. These two factors will limit the ability for the stronger winds to mix down. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread rain showers will be ongoing Sunday night as a frontal boundary moves across the region. Although it won't be all that much colder behind the front, the incoming airmass will be much drier, so expect showers will rapidly come to an end by early Monday morning. Another weak surface trough will move through Monday afternoon, which may allow a few additional showers to develop, but any activity would be isolated and very light in nature given the dry air that will be in place. Ridging spreads into the area Monday night, keeping conditions dry. Monday's highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring where sun can break through the clouds. Lows both Sunday night and Monday night will mostly be in the 40s, though Sunday will be more in the mid 40s to around 50F, while Monday night will be a little cooler. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as we remain under the influence of ridging, but then precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday and continue through the remainder of the week as several waves move through the nearly zonal flow aloft, and eventually around a developing upper trough centered to our north. Exact timing and placement of these waves and associated precipitation is difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, but expect every day through the latter half of the week to have at some chance of showers. Instability doesn't look all that impressive, though a few rumbles of thunder may be possible Wednesday over western sections of northern NY, and perhaps far southern VT on Thursday. Tuesday will be the warmest day under lots of sunshine; highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Things should cool down slightly thereafter, though exactly how much will depend on exact timing and placement of shower activity and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions should persist through the entire TAF period though moist southeast flow could cause ceilings at MPV to lower to MVFR late tonight. A few light showers are possible early this morning at at any of the terminals but they will not be heavy enough to cause any visibility concerns. Steadier rain will arrive in northern New York late tonight. Wind shear is currently close to LLWS criteria at many of the terminals but the wind shear will decrease this morning and stay lower for the rest of the day. Winds will stay relatively consistent throughout the TAF period. They will generally be from the southeast between 5-15 KTs, though BTV may gust a little higher. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Chai/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Myskowski