####018003847#### FXUS62 KTBW 030856 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 456 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-Tonight)... Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Other than a few clouds decorating the skies along the Nature Coast, it is a mostly clear morning across the Florida Peninsula. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure remains in place today. This should keep light easterly winds in place with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds onshore. Slightly drier conditions are anticipated which should limit how much activity, if any, develops today. Most of the guidance keeps the highest chances across souther parts of the state. In addition, afternoon temperatures will be around 90 degrees, so residents and visitors should stay hydrated to prevent any heat related illnesses. && .LONG TERM (SAT-THU)... Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 During the weekend, an upper level disturbance approaches the stat, but it is expected to fall apart as it moves northeast. As a result, moisture increase over the Peninsula, which should support higher rain chances into Sunday. Then, Bermuda High builds back in bringing very warm and much drier conditions through the rest of the period. If materializes, well above normal temperatures are possible with the potential for record breaking highs by the middle of next week. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and overnight lows near 70 degrees. East to southeasterly winds prevail becoming westerly each afternoon behind the sea breeze. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Easterly winds prevail becoming westerly behind the afternoon sea breeze in most terminals, except FMY/RSW/LAL. WInds become breezy through the day but should decrease through the evening. Slightly drier conditions should limit shower and storms activity but there is a non-zero chance of isolated showers near southern TAF sites later in the afternoon. Otherwise, no concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Area of high pressure remains in control over the Gulf waters through the period. Fairly dry conditions are anticipated today. Winds should remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front to approach portions of the area during the weekend, but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Persistent high pressure remains in control across fire districts through the period. Slightly drier air should keep low chances for showers and storms over the area today. Minimum humidities could drop near critical levels, especially in central portions of the Peninsula. Easterly winds prevail become onshore by the afternoon through before shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a weak front increase moisture over the weekend and along with it chances of rain into early next week. Interior locations should see most of the activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 71 89 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 40 20 GIF 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 90 71 89 71 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPG 88 73 87 74 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...ADavis ####018007456#### FXUS61 KBUF 030858 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 458 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to slide east into New England today supporting mainly dry weather for most of the day. A warm front to the west of the area will move across the region today, supporting a surge in warm air, allowing temperatures to topple out well above average today. A pair of slow moving cold fronts will then pass across the area tonight through Sunday supporting a couple of rounds of showers and possible a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will slide east toward the New England coast today, all the while the upper level ridge axis passes across the area. Additionally, a warm front will push northeastward this morning due to some freshening southerly low level flow. Overall this will support warm air advection today, causing temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across the vast majority of the region with a few low to mid 80s possible across far WNY and the traditional warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Areas along the lake shore will be cooler. With the high exiting the region through much of today, expect the vast majority of the day to be on the dry side. However, as the aforementioned upper level ridge axis drifts east across the eastern half of the state, southwesterly flow will advect in deeper moisture this afternoon through evening. Eventually by late Friday a cold front will interact with the increasing moisture, and in combination of diurnal heating a few scattered showers and thunderstorms may result. The best focus will lie along the lake breeze boundary inland from Lake Erie. The cold front will then gradually pass across Lake Erie tonight before stalling across Western New York by Saturday morning. This will support showers and thunderstorms to continue to spread across WNY throughout the night. Expect a mild night Friday with lows ranging in the 50s, with the warmer readings occuring along the Lake Erie shoreline. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A mid level ridge axis will move from NY/PA Saturday morning to off the east coast by Sunday afternoon. A few weak mid level shortwaves will move east into the ridge position and weaken with time. Despite the presence of a ridge aloft, the weekend will be unsettled as a slow moving low level trough and associated plume of deep moisture drifts across the eastern US beneath the mid level ridge. Model guidance has shown some run to run variability with respect to timing of the most organized rain. The general trend since yesterday has been to decrease rain potential on Saturday (especially in the afternoon) while increasing rain chances Sunday. Saturday, a mid level shortwave will move across the eastern Great Lakes and weaken as it encounters the persistent ridge over NY/PA. A weak surface trough and associated area of low level moisture convergence will move across the area in the morning and provide some focus for a few areas of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two, with the best coverage likely found across Western NY. This trough largely washes out by the afternoon, and ascent and moisture temporarily fade across the eastern Great Lakes. While there may still be a few spotty showers, Saturday afternoon and evening should feature plenty of rain free time. Saturday night will start with only spotty coverage of showers and plenty of rain free areas during the evening. Another mid level shortwave will then move from the Ohio Valley into NY/PA later Saturday night through Sunday, bringing renewed ascent. A plume of deeper moisture will be advected northward into the area as low/mid level SSW flow increases in response to a digging trough over the upper Great Lakes. The increase in forcing and moisture will allow for a commensurate increase in rain coverage from southwest to northeast late Saturday night through Sunday across the region. There may be just enough instability to support some isolated weak thunder. The mid and low level trough axis will gradually move east into New England later Sunday and Sunday night, with rain tapering off from west to east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure over northwest Ontario will ridge southeastward into the Great Lakes Monday, with an associated bubble of dry air bringing a return to dry weather. The dry weather will last into at least Tuesday morning. Model guidance begins to show some spread by Tuesday afternoon with the arrival of the next system. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean continues to be on the fast side of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and GEM are slower. For now kept some chance POPS for Tuesday afternoon, but if the slower guidance verifies Tuesday will end up being dry. Wednesday through Thursday an expansive mid level low will gradually move east across the north central US. A series of mid level shortwaves will eject out of this system and move east across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, with each feature bringing ascent and deeper moisture to the region. This will produce occasional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for mid to late week next week. Temperatures will continue to run above average through all of next week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A combination of exiting high pressure to the east into New England this morning and the entering warm front pushing across WNY this morning is supporting VFR flight conditions. Some thickening mid to upper level cloud decks this morning as the warm front approaches the region. Despite the increasing cloud cover, VFR conditions will persist. As the next cold front approaches the warm front today, a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible after 18Z. Friday afternoon through night, a chance of showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm across western NY after 18z. As such the MVFR cigs should not arrive until late tonight mainly across the western Southern Tier. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms. Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR. Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through Sunday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/JM ####018004597#### FXUS64 KLCH 030858 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 358 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase. CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight the most susceptible areas based on yesterday's rainfall and the latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it's not going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana. Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10 corridor. By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered convection to develop across much of the region. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon convection, but these would be isolated and short lived. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Not a lot has changed in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast goes. Low clouds have started to develop with KARA/KLFT already at MVFR levels, and the other terminals should follow suit over the next couple of hours. The next issue will be the potential for redevelopment of shower activity toward daybreak. With the very moist airmass staying around and plenty of low level boundaries, nocturnal shower activity is expected to move in at KBPT by 03/10z then spreading to the other terminals after 03/13z. Convective activity is expected to increase during the morning hours as an upper level disturbance moves toward the area. MVFR to IFR conditions from the showers and storms. Shower activity is expected to end during the mid to late afternoon with some VFR conditions possible at the terminals. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland. Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 65 86 66 / 80 20 30 10 LCH 81 70 84 71 / 80 10 10 10 LFT 82 70 86 71 / 80 10 10 0 BPT 82 71 84 72 / 60 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66