####018006003#### FXUS63 KJKL 030900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast through the next 7 days. - Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 The 6Z surface chart out of the WPC showed a large occluded low in place over northwestern Minnesota, with an occluded front extending southeast from it. A cold front and semi-stationary boundaries were snaking their way southwest and east from the triple point with the occluded boundary, with each boundary extending out to the east coast and beyond and out to western Nevada. Waves of low pressure were also seen at various locations from Utah to southwest Texas, to Indiana, and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure was in place over portions of the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, with large subtropical low in place off the southeastern CONUS. A complex pattern in place across the country to be sure to start off this Friday. We will see showers and thunderstorms moving through our area from time to time today through Saturday, as the occluded low moves eastward into the Great Lakes and eventually into central New England. As the low moves off to the east or northeast, the surface boundaries extending south from it will move through the region, and will spark showers and storms across area. Based on current model data, it is clear that there will be instability and moisture in place to fuel showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky, but uncertainty exists as to exactly where storms will fire and how extensive the rain will be. Some models have been showing few if any showers and storms across eastern Kentucky over the next couple of days, while others have fairly extensive coverage of precipitation. There is also some doubt revolving around how well defined any boundaries will be as they move through our area. That all being said, with a good influx of moisture and instability into the region, we expect scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms to fire and move through the area from time to time today through Saturday, with the afternoon and early evening hours being most active due to peak heating and maximized instability. It does appear that Saturday will be a bit more active than today, as the model data is showing quite a bit more instability present than today, especially late Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap today and Saturday. Enough decoupling may occur late Friday night to allow for a small ridge valley split, especially in the northeast where our normally cooler valleys may fall off into the mid 50s. As far as weather hazards go, we are not expecting anything of major concern at this time. As always, any thunderstorms we see the next couple of days will be capable of producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours that could lead to ponding of water on roadways or short lived minor nuisance flooding. Confidences is high that most locations will see rain today through Saturday, its a matter of how widespread will thunderstorms be, especially today with less instability expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A rather wet long term period should be in store. However, it looks overall rather short on details/specifics. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest, while low level flow will from the south southwest off the gulf. This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow, it will not have much momentum and is not likely to make a clean passage during the period (possibly just beyond the current long term period). This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s most of the time. The main drivers for precip will be convection associated with diurnal heating cycles and mid/upper level waves. While the diurnal cycle is simple, weak upper level features are much more problematic. The most obvious and predictable feature at this point is a shortwave trough which all models have approaching on Monday. The highs POP (70% area wide) of the long term period coincides with this. The remainder of the 12 hour periods have POPs mainly in the 40-60% range. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours, as BKN to OVC middle and high level clouds continue to overspread the area. Isolated to scattered showers will begin moving near SME and LOZ between 15 and 17Z today, JKL by 20Z, SYM by 18Z, and SJS by 23Z. Showers and isolated storms will begin affecting all TAF sites by mid to late afternoon Friday, as a weakening cold front moves through the area. Winds should be primarily out of the southwest, and will peak at 5 to 10KTs Friday afternoon. With some uncertainty regarding exactly when thunderstorms will initiate today, and how widespread they will be, decided to continue the trend of VCSH from early Friday morning through Friday evening. As new model data comes, will refine the likelihood of thunder across the area as warranted && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR ####018003526#### FXUS65 KTWC 030900 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry to end the week with breezy afternoons on most days. A dry weather system will bring stronger breezes to windy conditions with possible blowing dust on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Zonal westerly flow will prevail today with temperatures keeping the same trend of being slightly above normal with afternoon breezes. Satellite imagery this morning showed the next weather system that will impact the region. A low pressure center is just off the shore of Washington that is mainly dry based on the latest Total Precipitable Water imagery. The ensemble models are in sync with each other, with a few minor variations, on the progression of the weather system. The low pressure center is projected to move into Nevada by Sunday. The Extreme Forecast Index has highlighted the strong potential (60% of members agree on this), and same with the NAEFS, for strong winds across Southeast Arizona. This is due to the pressure gradient increasing by early Sunday morning as the low deepens towards Arizona. Several of the deterministic models forecast the 50-55 knots at the 500mb level which it translates down to the surface of speeds 20-30mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Blowing dust is possible given how the area has been drying out since the last rains. Another concern will be increase risk for fire weather as the relative humidities will be near the single digits with fuels already cured or curring. Headlines will likely to come forth soon to highlight the wind and fire weather concerns. By Monday, the trough will move out and morph into an elongated trough axis across the Desert Southwest. This will tap down temperatures a few degrees on Monday. The upper pattern will slowly shift back into westerly flow, but it keep breezy conditions and warm temperatures for the most of the week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z. SKC through the majority of the forecast period with thin cirrus above 20 kft MSL moving in after 03/21Z from southwest to northeast. SFC winds this morning light and variable less the 10 knots and again after 04/05Z. In between, starting at 3/17Z, westerly winds up to 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 kts in the late afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph today and increasing up to 20 mph on Saturday. Min RHs continue to be in the single digits to the lower teens for the valleys and the teens to lower twenties for the mountains through the rest of the weekend. A dry weather system will be passing on Sunday to bring windy conditions in the already low relative humidity environment. There is increasing confidence on of gusts getting up to 45 mph, especially in more expose areas. The combination of dry, windy, and warm conditions will put most of the fire weather zones at critical to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. After Sunday, winds will return to the typical afternoon breeziness of 15 to 20 mph for the first half of the new week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson ####018004597#### FXUS63 KSGF 030902 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 402 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Patchy fog has set in around the area this morning thanks to the rain we saw earlier on Thursday. Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should help to clear out the fog and improve visibilities as it continues to push south. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after the cold front moves through. This is due to the mid-level southwesterly flow that will help us stay warm today. Winds turn to the north just for a few hours this morning before returning back to the southeast by late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves over us. Another weak shortwave moves through southern Missouri this afternoon and rain chances return. Right now, only have a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms with the best chances occurring over southeast Missouri. Storms are expected to be sub-severe today. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM. As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours. Tomorrow, we are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, and therefore, will be a better set up than today. Storms may become severe and could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Right now, have rain lingering through Saturday night into Sunday morning even after the front has passed through. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Thursday. The entire area is in a general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday. Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring shower and thunderstorms to the area. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time. By Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC has consistently put our western counties in KS in an area of 15% chance for severe weather for Monday. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of severe storms. Lastly, CSU/CIPS guidance is showing the potential for severe weather all the way through Thursday of next week. Next week could be another busy week, stay tuned for further forecast updates. As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Visibilities have improved over SGF as the surface cold front continues to push southward over central Missouri. Fog could dissipate earlier than anticipated based on the speed of the front. For now, will keep reduced visibilities and low ceilings in the TAF for the next couple of hours. By the afternoon, mostly cloudy skies are expected but VFR ceilings should return. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria ####018004739#### FXUS63 KEAX 030903 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 403 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Monday evening and Monday night. Strong to severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a 500 mb low and associated troughing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Missouri and Kansas remain generally within west southwesterly flow aloft south of the primary 500 mb jet streak rounding the base of the northern stream trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary that was associated with yesterday's convection continues to exit to the east, with surface high pressure building in behind it. Current conditions across the county warning area are defined by temperatures primarily in the 50s with light northerly winds. It should be a relatively pleasant day today with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s with lower humidity and an easterly breeze. By tonight, a quick moving shortwave trough descends out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains, linking up with the aforementioned mid level low and troughing already present over the Upper Midwest, and sends another cold front toward the region. Convection allowing models (CAMs) suggest that convection should initiate along and ahead of the front over central Nebraska by this evening, with a line or broken line of showers and storms entering into NW Missouri and NE Kansas by around 3 to 4 am tomorrow morning. These storms should continue to move west to east with the front through the morning hours, exiting the region to the east by noon. The SPC HREF suggests up to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with along with around 30 to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, so it is possible that a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. SPC concurs with this, as they have the region highlighted within a marginal risk for severe storms for tonight into Saturday morning's convective activity. Additionally, these storms could bring another 0.5 to 0.75" of rain to the region, with locally higher amounts possible. The precise timing of the cold front will largely impact Saturday's high temperatures. As of now, the forecast highs range from as cold as the mid 60s over NW Missouri to as warm as the mid 70s toward mid Missouri where the cold front is progged to arrive later in the day. Cooler temperatures and some cloud cover should linger into Sunday. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible on Sunday, primarily south of Interstate 70, as a subtle shortwave trough develops over the Southern Plains and a stationary boundary near the MO/AR border begins to lift northward as a warm front. As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted. Differences continue with how the GFS and ECMWF handle the system, which will impact overall storm timing and specific severe weather hazards, but showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday evening/night, with strong to severe thunderstorms in play given mid 60s dewpoints, moderate instability, and sufficient deep layer shear. Additionally, locally moderate rainfall will once again be possible, and with the antecedent wet conditions, this could yield more flash and river flooding concerns. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation lingers Tuesday into Thursday as models suggest a closed mid level low remaining over the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow aloft over Missouri and Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers have exited the terminals to the east, leaving VFR conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. Outside of some patchy fog briefly lowering VSBYs to MVFR at STJ early Friday morning, VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light northerly winds will become easterly by mid Friday morning, increasing slightly toward 9 to 10 knots. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW ####018006935#### FXUS63 KMQT 030905 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 505 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI. Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of thunderstorms at times. - Mostly above normal temperatures expected, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal on the majority of days thru the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 504 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Current water vapory imagery/RAP analysis highlight a well-defined shortwave rotating over the MN/Canada border with its associated occluded front already well into Upper Michigan. As expected, showers have quickly tapered off with frontal passage with the only activity on latest radar mosaic concentrated over the easternmost portions of the UP. And, even these should taper off by mid- morning. So far, convective activity has been non-existent, but still cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder over the far eastern counties after sunrise. Most of the forecast area will be sunny this morning as forecast soundings trend toward a dry column. The exception will be the eastern third of the UP where it will take a bit longer for the moisture/cloud cover to clear out. Gusty southwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially across the western UP will contribute to rapidly falling dew points and temperatures climbing into the upper 60s/low 70s (inland). Recent rainfall will, however, mitigate today's fire weather threat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Rain showers quickly wrap up into Friday morning as the occluded front moves through the eastern UP behind the exiting shortwave. Sunny skies are looking likely, but there is reason or uncertainty across the eastern UP, particularly nearer to the Great Lakes. Following this round of rain, there will likely be some marine fog and low stratus, which may be advected over the eastern UP under a weaker wind regime and potential lake breeze development. This would limit the potential for mixing. Where skies do remain sunny, daytime heating will contribute to a building mixed layer that will in turn help us tap into very dry air aloft. Dewpoints in the interior- western UP drop into the lower 30s and even upper 20s. With temperatures area-wide well into the 60s and even the lower 70s, relative humidity plummets into the 20s. Winds across the western UP should be on the gusty side, closer in proximity to the surface low centered over the Ontario/Manitoba border region and with better mixing. Expect widespread gusts up to 20-30mph. This would all pose some concern for fire spread, were it not immediately following the ongoing round of widespread rain. Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will already be approaching by Sat afternoon, resulting in a quick round of showers spreading in from west to east for the afternoon and evening hours. Showers quickly taper off from west to east into the night behind the passing cold front. Showers are most likely across the western UP as the right entrance region of the upper jet streak will be draped over the area, lending some divergence aloft, but rainfall amounts are still favored. PWATs are only topping out around 0.75in, and soundings indicate only a brief window of deeper moisture as the wave passes through. Though deterministic guidance remains sort of all over the place, ensembles are still showing around a 30-50% chance for totals in excess of 0.10in. Will continue to lean towards the NBM solution keeping most of hte area at around 0.10 to 0.20in. In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sunday and continues Monday with a ridge amplifying over the area. Then, expect wet weather to continue through the work week. For the time range, agreement is good for the next shortwave swinging out of the Rockies on Mon to result in a mid-level low over the Dakotas for Tue. In response, strengthening waa/isentropic ascent directed into the area will touch off our next round of showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Anchored by the mid-level low, mid-level troughing will then expand across the Rockies and Plains to Great Lakes during the midweek period, resulting in additional shortwaves tracking into the Upper Great Lakes with additional rounds of showers through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR/LIFR conditions will continue overnight. Easterly upslope flow at SAW and CMX will result in LIFR prevailing longer than IWD. Expect improvement to VFR at all terminals as a west-southwest wind develops in the wake of the system's cold front moving across the area. First will be at IWD by later tonight and by morning at CMX and SAW. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Winds primarily our of the NE continue to come in below 15kts so far this afternoon, but will soon be on the increase into the evening hours as a surface low lifts northward into the Great Lakes. Expect winds to increase to around 20-25kts across far western Lake Superior for a brief period this evening, then as winds veer to the east with the weakening low moving into WI, expect winds to briefly fall below 20kts in western Lake Superior while increasing to 20- 25kts to the east. As the low lifts into northern Ontario on Friday, winds will shift to the SW. While gusts up to 25kt will continue over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to mostly under 15kt over the eastern lake in the afternoon as winds back around to the SE. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly below 20kts across Lake Superior under a relatively weak pressure gradient. High pressure that arrives over the Upper Great Lakes late weekend will shift eastward on Mon while a deep low pressure emerges over the western Dakotas. This will result in increasing easterly winds Mon into Tue. Expect winds up to 30kts by Tue. With showers moving across Lake Superior through tonight, some fog will likely develop, and it could become locally dense. Fog will push mostly to Canadian waters for Fri due to the SW winds. If the fog does not clear off of the lake on Fri, it may expand back across eastern Lake Superior during Fri aftn as winds back to the E/SE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...07 MARINE...LC