####018006720#### FXUS62 KMHX 041415 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1015 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 10 AM Saturday...The majority of the fog has dissipated but low stratus continues to blanket much of the coastal plain. Some light showers have blossomed over Down East and PoPs have been slightly increased through the afternoon and early evening to reflect the 12Z run of the CAMs. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to remain isolated to widely scattered. Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Saturday...Ridging aloft persists through the near term with stalled front currently bisecting the FA over the Pamlico River and ample low level moisture has led to development of fog and stratus. Have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z this morning. While every ob in the FA is not explicitly showing quarter mi VIS or less, the low level stratus will only help to decrease VIS. After sunrise, the fog will begin to dissipate, but the stratus will linger through much of the morning. Weak cold front will remain over ENC while becoming slightly more diffuse, but moving very little, with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry today save for our inland zones where showers and iso tstorms associated with a shortwave traveling NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore, moisture content increases through the column as flow in the lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday, and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are expected through Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0630 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats this morning with fog/stratus in place. Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger due to stratus into at least the late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well. Chances of showers increases area wide overnight with inland TAF sites showing greatest potential for subVFR CIGs briefly overnight. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by Wednesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0630 Saturday...Have expanded the dense fog advisory for coastal waters N of Hatt. Conditions will be monitored with potential of having to extend the advisory a little longer this morning. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged Previous Disco as of 0400...Dense fog advisory has been issued for all inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal waters as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait for daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog advisory will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early become Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows seas generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S through the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer waters, highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible this evening into the overnight hours. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB ####018006305#### FXUS61 KALY 041415 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1015 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast will provide continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT...At the surface, high pressure is located east of the area over New England and it will be slowly departing off to the east through the day today. Meanwhile, a storm system will also be approaching from the Great Lakes, but it will take until tonight to begin impacting the region. Visible satellite imagery continue to show partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area, with the most clouds across northern areas. A few light sprinkles or showers have been ongoing over the Adirondacks, but this activity is very brief, light and spotty. Radar trends and CAMs suggest this activity will be diminishing over the next few hours. Elsewhere, it should stay dry through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area. Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns. Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys. High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas. Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday, as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through this evening, although a few patches of MVFR/IFR Cigs will remain possible at KPSF through 13Z/Sat. MVFR Cigs should then develop after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late through today. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 1500-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun. Some spotty light rain may develop at KGFL, KALB and KPOU after 08Z/Sun, with better chances closer to and especially after 12Z/Sun. Light/variable winds will become southeast to south winds and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning and continue into tonight. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time. Outlook... Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL ####018008337#### FXUS63 KIND 041417 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1017 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. - Isolated flooding threat Monday. - Growing confidence in the potential for a few rounds of severe thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue across Southeastern Indiana this morning, so have gone ahead and raised PoPs for areas south and east of Indianapolis through the rest of the morning hours. Weak upper wave and associated surface reflection within a southwesterly flow pattern are providing just enough lift to spark off a few showers and thunderstorms this morning. Latest ACARs soundings from Cincinnati and Louisville show a saturated 0-4km layer with upwards of 700-900 j/kg of CAPE across the region. Low level shear is very weak, so not expecting any severe weather with this convection, mainly garden variety showers and storms with lightning and brief periods of heavy rain expected. This wave and associated energy will slowly pull off to the northeast through the day, keeping the best chance for any showers or storms in Eastern and Southeastern Indiana. Lower confidence exists with how far west storms may form today and if they could reach Indianapolis. Most short term hi-res guidance keeps everything just east of Marion County through the afternoon; however with such a moist, unstable environment, it is not out of the question for a stray shower or storm to develop further west towards the Indy Metro area. Lowered highs for Eastern Indiana to remain in the lower to mid 70s with increased clouds and convection around. Along and west of the I-65 corridor, less clouds will allow for more boundary layer heating and deeper mixing to support highs reaching the 80 degree mark. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Another warm and somewhat humid day and evening is expected across central Indiana today into tonight, as weak low pressure remains in the region and a couple of subtle upper level impulses impinge upon the area. Despite these features and a relatively moist airmass, modest instability and weak deep layer shear will limit intensity and coverage of showers and thunderstorms to isolated-scattered, with the highest chances in the east nearer the better moisture, a weak boundary, and where weak to non-existent capping will exist, in contrast to the western and northwestern portions of the area, where a modest capping inversion centered around 700 mb looks to remain in place much of the day. Will carry 20-40 percent PoPs across much of the area save the northwest today, slowly working them back westward as winds shift and advect the deeper moisture a bit further back into central Indiana today. Aforementioned parameter space weaknesses should limit threat to brief heavy downpours and lightning, with no substantial threat for severe storms. Additional convection associated with an approaching upper level impulse may move through the area tonight, but would likely be weakening diurnally as it does so. Will carry slight chance to low chance PoPs tonight. Temperatures should be a bit warmer today per low level thickness progs, and blending in MOS and NBM yields mid 70s to low 80s across the area, which appears quite reasonable. Overnight lows will depend significantly upon evolution of convection that may move into the area, and resultant cloud cover, but guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and made only minor adjustments to yield mid 50s to low 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday and Monday. The long term continues to look rather active for the Ohio Valley. A steep ridge access over the EC has kept broad S/W flow over the region. This in combination with consistent troughing to the west will maintain the creation of waves/lift over the central US Sunday will be no exception, beginning with a departing mid level wave Sunday morning. Any remaining convection should be weak by Sunday morning, but lingering showers are possible until high pressure builds in beneath AVA. During the day on Sunday, another shortwave is expected to develop over the mid-Mississippi Valley, centered within the diffluent region of the subtropical jet. This should push E/N into the Ohio Valley late on Sunday. Uncertainty is still high if the northern periphery of this wave will be enough to overcome developing low level high pressure, and subsequent shower/storm development. Regardless, instability should remain modest in the afternoon and evening (1000 J/kg), and isolated pop-up thunderstorms will be a threat. Will continue to monitor for the potential of a more consistent source of lift and resulting greater coverage, but for now this looks unlikely. The greater source of lift within the aforementioned wave looks to arrive late Sunday night through Monday, with greater than 70% PoPs by Monday afternoon. The overall parameter spacing on Monday does not support organized convection, but the deeply saturated profile along with long, "skinny" CAPE should lead to highly efficient rain producers. A single storm likely wont create flooding issues, but if multiple cells pass over similar areas, flooding concern will likely become heightened. Tuesday Through Thursday. The next round of unsettled weather will push into the region shortly after, with another trough, albeit deeper, over the Inter- Mountain West by Tuesday. This time around, a more organized low pressure system is expected to develop, rapidly deepening as it reaches the Great Plains, pointing a strong westerly mid to upper level jet at the Midwest. As the low develops, convergence east of the low should create a weak warm-frontal region and associated isentropic ascent. This lift is expected to reach the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley sometime Monday night into Tuesday, leading to showers and some elevated thunderstorms. Following this warm front passage, central Indiana will be within a highly unstable environment with a strong mid and upper level jet aloft. Uncertainty remains high on timing and specifics, but confidence is growing on a organized severe threat across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily focused on the potential for a few quick passing shortwaves attached to the prior mention jet streak. The thunderstorm and severe threat should decrease late week as AVA and modest CAA returns leading to high pressure and a drier overall airmass. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings/visibilities for at least brief periods at all sites late tonight through daybreak. - Low chance for isolated convection Saturday (Primarily at KBMG) - MVFR ceilings and scattered showers possible tonight. Discussion: As skies clear from west to east overnight, some fog has developed at all sites for at least brief periods. Will carry prevailing MVFR at all outlying sites (IFR at BMG) and TEMPO MVFR at IND. These conditions may persist in some areas into mid morning before returning to VFR. There will be a low chance for showers and isolated storms today, but too low for inclusion in the TAF except for KBMG at this time. More showers with MVFR ceilings will arrive overnight. Winds will shift significantly through the period, beginning northeasterly and becoming southerly/southwesterly late in the period. Another wind shift is expected overnight towards NW. Sustained winds will remain below 10KT throughout. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CM SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...Updike AVIATION...Updike ####018007601#### FXUS61 KOKX 041418 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1018 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in place along the New England coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints to better reflect current conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US today, with surface high pressure in place along the New England coast. This will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave riding over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region. While a spotty shower can't be ruled out this afternoon, mainly in far western portions of the region, the day will be predominantly dry. Expect a fair amount of cloud cover, thickening into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. This should lead to eastward expansion of shower coverage off to the west that very gradually begins to work in tonight, likely after midnight even for the farthest west locales. With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures this weekend run up to 10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s today, falling into the 40s overnight into Sunday AM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... By Sunday, the shortwave associated with an upper low over Central Canada attempts to break down the ridging over the East Coast, with the surface front draped along the Midwest starting to make progress eastward. Guidance continues to advance this boundary quite slowly, with the fropa perhaps not occurring locally until Monday. Ahead of it, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east. QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch. The shortwave energy pushes offshore Monday with the surface boundary stalling to our south and west. Ridging builds once again across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. Latest guidance is less enthused about energy riding under this and interacting with the stalled boundary, which would allow a return of steadier rain chances depending on placement. Trimmed back PoPs Monday night as a result, though still not out of the question a few showers make it into Long Island from the south. After the chilly Sunday in the low to mid 50s for most, temperatures rebound on Monday in SW flow back into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday begins with high pressure to our north and a stationary front across the Mid-Atlantic. This front is expected to slowly push north towards us as a warm front through the day. Looks like most of the day will be dry, but still a low threat of showers over roughly the western half of the forecast area - closer to the deeper moisture and lift. A ridge aloft flattens Tuesday night into Wednesday with a surface low tracking east across the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will continue to try to push into the forecast area during this time, however a synoptic onshore flow off of cold waters along with influence from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with both serve to hold this front to our south. Chance of showers for this period, and maybe even a rumble of thunder Weds afternoon with elevated instability pushing in from the west. The surface low to our north then weakens with the flattening ridge aloft Weds night into Thursday with another wave of low pressure heading east - this time tracking through the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The boundary to our south doesn't make much progress as the surface low is weak along with no significant llj to help push the front northward. PoPs however increase in the afternoon into nighttime with the approach of the surface low and associated moisture and lift. Best guess right now is that this system shifts through at some point Thursday night into Friday, but there's uncertainty with this timing. There's also the potential of yet another wave of pressure forming to our west and maintaining rain chances through all of Friday. NBM was used for temperatures through the long term. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains in place through tonight. VFR into early evening, then MVFR develops later this evening, with cigs lowering to IFR overnight. A shower possible starting late this afternoon, however rainfall doesn't become likely until Sunday afternoon. ESE-SE winds around 10kt through the TAF period. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of IFR onset may be forecast to be a couple of hours too soon, and even possible that cigs do not lower to IFR at all tonight. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely mainly in the afternoon. SE winds G15-20kt. Monday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place. && .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will increase with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night along with the threat of minor coastal flooding each night through this period and possibly including Wednesday night as well. A coastal flood statement has been issued for this evening's high tide cycle across Southern Fairfield County with benchmarks expected to be just reached in a few spots. Statements may be expanded to include Southern Westchester and Southern Nassau Counties for Sunday night. Advisories may eventually be needed for these zones and Southern Queens Monday night, and even more so for Tuesday night. Statements may be needed during this period for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018009937#### FXUS61 KAKQ 041418 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... On and off shower chances are expected this afternoon into Sunday night. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: -Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area this afternoon with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers. Early this morning, a backdoor front was located south and west of the CWA. While, high pressure over New England was wedging cool, moist air into the Mid Atlc. With the front projected to stay south and west of the area this aftn, expect cloudy and dreary conditions across the area. Latest radar showed sctd showers over wrn and NE portions of the region. Chances for showers will continue through this aftn. But, with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Minimal thunder is expected this aftn, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will become breezy E of I-95, esply near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph. Highs will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight SE component, allowing for warmer temps in the lower to mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp. So, expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s. Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sun. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in the S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: -A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps. -There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week. An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 12z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs continue to overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the morning with perhaps some improvement this afternoon (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through this morning. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning. - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft. With yesterday's backdoor cold front now well S of the local area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4 ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later today, these headlines may need an extension. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 440 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding. - Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning. Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be extended as well). It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM/TMG SHORT TERM...AM/SW LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM/ERI MARINE...LKB/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ