####018007427#### FXUS66 KOTX 030930 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 230 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The region will see mild and dry conditions today, with the exception of a few scattered showers near the Canadian border. The next system will move into the region Friday night, expanding eastward through Saturday. Sunday will be cool and wet, with additional unsettled weather expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday Night...As you wake up this morning and head to work, you may notice that temperatures feel warmer than they have the last few mornings. Well you're not imagining things, the temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees warmer at 2am than they were 24 hours ago. Clear skies this morning will see clouds increasing ahead of the next system. There will be some isolated showers in far northeastern Washington and ID Panhandle this afternoon, mainly along the Canadian border. Winds will pick up along the lee side of the Cascades, especially in the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau as the winds shift southerly with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Winds will decrease in the Okanogan Valley overnight but gusts of 30 mph remaining in the Waterville Plateau. Temperatures will rise slightly, reaching the mid 60s with a few 70s in the LC Valley. Rain will move in overnight over the Cascades, which will be the beginning of a pattern change. Lows will be even warmer tonight but closer to normal, only dropping into the 40s. Saturday's front will chug slowly eastward as the low slides towards the Oregon coast. Morning temperatures will warm throughout the day, with Saturday being the warmest of the forecast for locations along and east of the Columbia Basin. Even with the additional cloud cover, prefrontal warming will warm above the temperatures seen today. The front will move through lee side of the Cascades in late morning, keeping high temperatures in the 50s and rain showers arriving earlier. Rain showers will continue to spread eastward throughout the day. Breezy winds will continue through the day, expanding into the upper Columbia Basin and Palouse with gusts to of 25 to 30 mph. By late Saturday evening, much of the region will have some sort of showers in their area. These showers will increase throughout the night, bringing some beneficial rainfall to the region. /KM Sunday and Sunday night: Wet and cool. As a closed upper low tracks across Oregon into southern ID, a deformation band slowly pivots across the Inland NW giving way to round of rain. Precipitable waters increase to over 0.8” across eastern WA by Sunday morning. - Precipitation: Moderate rain amounts of are expected especially across parts of the Columbia Basin, southeast WA and the southern ID Panhandle where the best dynamics and moisture will lie. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to rain from less than a tenth of an inch in north-central WA to a half to near an inch of rain across southeast WA where stream flows are running low. Snow levels should be high, spanning from 5-6 K ft with mainly the higher elevations experiencing snow in the central Cascades, central ID Panhandle, and Blue mountains. The precipitation will lead to small rises on area rivers and streams although no flooding is expected yet any intense rain rates may lead to ponding of water in low lying areas. Overall anticipate the rain to be beneficial after the latest stretch of dry weather. -Temperatures: Daytime highs will be vary depending on where the steady rain lies. Right now it will remain cooler from the eastern Columbia Basin to the Spokane/ Coeur d’Alene area and Palouse as they struggle to reach 50, meanwhile temperatures will be nearing 60 in north central WA further from rain bands. Westerly winds gradually increase by the afternoon to evening hours especially across southeast WA in the lee of the Cascades with gusts 25 to 35 mph as the low level boundary shifts east and pushes across north ID by Sunday evening. Monday through Tuesday: Breezy and showery. A west to northwest flow aloft prevails in the wake of the departing low, while a secondary weak trough rotates in from the Pacific. Low level moisture remains and showers will be more numerous by Monday afternoon as instability increases slightly. With mean capes near 100 J/kg across northeast WA into the ID Panhandle, this supports the mention of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening. Breezy westerly winds continue with peak gusts in the afternoon and evening hours of 25 to 30 mph especially across the Columbia Basin and Palouse Monday afternoon. Slight chances anticipated for Tuesday with mainly less moisture and less shower coverage. The risk of thunderstorms will be less and confined over northeast WA. Westerly winds continue although less gusty topping out at 20 to 25 mph. Anticipate more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday through Friday: Drier and warmer. An upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and builds inland. The threat of showers lingers over north Idaho and brushing extreme eastern WA for Wednesday, but trending less coverage for Thursday as drier and more stable conditions arrive. Under lighter winds, the more noticeable change will be warmer temperatures reaching the 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and in the 70s by Friday. The dry and warm pattern looks to continue into the following weekend. /rfox. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through Friday evening as the next weather system spreads increasing high clouds across the region on Friday. A quieter day in terms of mountain convection is forecast, with a 20% chance of showers limited to areas near the Canadian border in the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 06z Saturday. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 65 45 68 42 48 40 / 0 0 10 40 80 70 Coeur d'Alene 65 42 67 42 47 40 / 0 0 10 30 60 80 Pullman 63 46 66 38 44 39 / 0 0 20 70 80 80 Lewiston 71 47 71 45 53 44 / 0 0 10 70 80 80 Colville 65 40 68 43 56 38 / 10 0 20 30 80 80 Sandpoint 62 42 65 46 51 41 / 10 0 10 30 60 90 Kellogg 62 43 65 44 46 40 / 10 0 10 40 80 90 Moses Lake 71 52 70 45 55 42 / 0 10 40 50 80 20 Wenatchee 68 52 60 47 58 44 / 0 20 70 50 40 10 Omak 70 49 68 49 63 42 / 0 10 30 40 40 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$ ####018012190#### FXUS65 KABQ 030930 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warmer conditions will prevail today, with a few late day strong to severe storms closer to the Texas border. A backdoor front will move southwest across the area Friday night through Saturday, bringing some cooling and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley. The front may trigger storms across north central and eastern NM Saturday, but storms across southeast NM may become severe. A strong disturbance will approach Sunday and move over Monday, bringing very windy conditions with areas of blowing dust both days. Stronger westerly winds will persist Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance, but will trend down by Wednesday. A cold front may move south across the state toward the end of next week, bringing chances for showers and storms to eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A return flow of low level moisture has spread low clouds across much of the east central and northeast plains and highlands this morning. These will retreat gradually from the west from mid morning through the early afternoon. However, an upper level trough passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies will work with this moisture, and high temperatures a few to around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, to spark scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast and east central areas this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe cells will be possible near the eastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. In addition, some garden variety thunderstorms will probably get started as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Tonight, a moist backdoor front pushing south and southwestward through the eastern plains will probably trigger isolated additional storms. And, there will probably be areas of low clouds again across the east tonight into early Saturday morning. Around sunrise Saturday, the backdoor front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe southward. Gusts could peak around 40 mph in Santa Fe and up to 50 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque early Saturday morning. A disturbance crossing the forecast area from the southwest will interact with all the moisture to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across north central, east central and southeast areas on Saturday afternoon, as well as mostly dry and gusty storms over the continental divide region of northwest NM. Shear and instability look strong enough for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southern Roosevelt and eastern Chaves Counties, even with high temperatures a few to around 11 degrees below 30-year averages over the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs near to around 5 degrees above the averages are forecast central and west. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Any remaining convection Saturday evening will follow a normal diurnal downturn and/or move east off into west TX. Low stratus/fog development is likely late Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain, as a thin near-surface moisture layer holds over the area. A potent upper level low will move east from the Great Basin toward the central/southern Rockies Sunday through Monday, spreading very strong winds aloft over the region. The timing of the approach may allow for a few storms to take off near the TX/OK borders Sunday afternoon after a dryline sharpens. However, near-surface moisture depth may be insufficient to fuel deeper convection. Will carry a slight chance mention of storms across the eastern plains for Sunday afternoon and any storms that do develop will likely become severe given impressive 0-6km bulk shear and strong dryline forcing. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft on Sunday will bring very windy conditions to much of the area, with blowing dust likely by afternoon across central and western NM where winds are forecast to reach at least advisory criteria. Strong westerly flow will prevail Monday behind the upper level trough/low ejecting out of the central/southern Rockies, with more areas of blowing dust. Winds are currently forecast to reach advisory criteria on Monday, but the winds aloft are strong enough to produce high wind gusts along and immediately east of the central mountain chain and near the CO border from Raton to near Clayton. Strong westerly flow and windy to very windy conditions will persist Tuesday as broad cyclonic flow prevails across the region. Winds will finally begin to trend down Wednesday and be much less by Thursday as a cold front moves southwest across the area. The front may interact with weak troughing over the region to produce a round of showers and storms late Thursday into early next Friday, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Low level moisture will surge westward to the east slopes of the central mountain chain for the remainder of tonight resulting in areas of low clouds with MVFR and localized IFR conditions across northeast and east central areas. The low clouds will dissipate from the west on Friday morning clearing most places by mid day, but likely lingering near the NM border with TX and OK into the late morning. Friday afternoon, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread across the eastern plains and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cells will move toward the east and northeast at speeds around 20-25 kt. A moist backdoor front is then forecast to dive south and southwestward through the eastern plains Friday night causing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to linger, especially along NM's eastern border. Areas of low clouds will probably also return to the eastern plains late Friday night. The front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind in the KSAF and KABQ areas perhaps as early as the predawn hours Saturday morning, but more likely just after sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Higher humidities over eastern areas with a chance for showers and thunderstorms today, will spread into central areas as well on Saturday enabling thunderstorm chances to spread further west as well. Isolated gusty and dry storms are forecast across the continental divide region of northwest NM on Saturday afternoon, with scattered to isolate wetting storms on the eastern plains. A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop Sunday through mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire weather conditions. With this forecast package will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor westward on Sunday, as well as the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, where critical conditions will be favored. The critical conditions will spread to the plains as well starting Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 78 45 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 72 33 73 36 / 0 0 20 20 Cuba............................ 71 41 69 39 / 0 0 20 10 Gallup.......................... 73 36 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 38 71 39 / 0 0 10 0 Grants.......................... 74 36 74 35 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 70 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 66 36 / 0 5 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 67 46 / 0 0 20 20 Pecos........................... 71 42 65 42 / 10 5 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 43 64 41 / 5 0 30 20 Red River....................... 62 31 60 33 / 10 5 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 63 25 58 31 / 10 10 30 30 Taos............................ 72 34 69 36 / 5 0 20 20 Mora............................ 70 36 62 38 / 10 10 20 40 Espanola........................ 79 44 76 46 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 73 47 69 45 / 5 0 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 72 44 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 53 75 51 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 52 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 83 47 80 45 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 82 50 78 49 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 82 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 82 50 78 48 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 82 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 77 50 72 48 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 47 66 45 / 0 0 20 10 Tijeras......................... 74 47 69 45 / 0 0 10 10 Edgewood........................ 75 42 69 44 / 0 0 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 37 70 41 / 5 0 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 72 39 64 41 / 10 5 20 20 Mountainair..................... 75 42 70 42 / 0 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 75 43 71 41 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 79 51 77 49 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 69 44 / 0 0 10 10 Capulin......................... 67 34 60 41 / 30 20 10 20 Raton........................... 72 36 66 41 / 20 20 20 20 Springer........................ 74 38 65 43 / 20 20 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 73 38 64 41 / 10 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 72 42 64 46 / 30 20 5 30 Roy............................. 73 41 64 45 / 20 20 10 30 Conchas......................... 82 47 72 49 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 80 44 67 47 / 20 10 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 81 47 70 49 / 20 20 20 40 Clovis.......................... 83 52 70 51 / 20 10 40 50 Portales........................ 85 52 70 51 / 20 10 40 60 Fort Sumner..................... 84 48 71 50 / 20 10 20 40 Roswell......................... 91 56 81 56 / 5 5 20 30 Picacho......................... 84 48 73 49 / 5 0 20 20 Elk............................. 81 47 77 46 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44 ####018005888#### FXUS63 KILX 030930 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 430 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms diminish from the west during this morning, with isolated showers lingering near the Wabash river this afternoon. Cooler highs in the mid 70s today. - Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms from mid Saturday afternoon into mid Sat evening over all but far eastern IL for gusty winds and hail. - An active weather pattern re-establishes itself Monday through Thursday, with signals showing risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday and Wednesday especially during afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Predawn surface map shows a cold front near I-55 with scattered showers along and east of the front and more numerous near the Indiana border. IR Satellite loop shows clouds over much of CWA while clearing skies just nw of Galesburg, Macomb and Quincy. Temperatures ranged from mid to upper 50s west of the IL river, to the mid 60s from I-70 southeast. Cold front to push east of IL/IN border by mid morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms diminishing as cold front passes by. Though isolated showers still possible over the Wabash river valley this afternoon. Clouds to decrease over nw half of CWA during today, with mostly sunny skies by mid to late afternoon from I-55. Meanwhile skies stay cloudier over southeast part of CWA today. Winds turning NE behind the front at 5-15 mph so much lighter than past few days. Cooler highs today in the mid 70s, except upper 70s possible from highway 50 south in southeast IL. Weak high pressure ~1018 mb over western IA drifts over WI and lower MI by sunset and ridging into central IL much of tonight and bringing fair weather. Some fog development noted east over parts of upper Wabash river valley of Indiana and gets close to Vermilion county/Danville area by sunrise Sat. Will keep fog out of forecast overnight and early Sat morning but will need to watch areas near the Indiana border. Lows overnight range from the lower 50s west of I-55 (upper 40s by Galesburg), to the lower 60s in southeast IL. A short wave trof over the northern Rockies by Idaho and western MT to track eastward into the eastern plains by midday Saturday and push a cold front east through central IL late Sat afternoon and evening. Air mass gets unstable Sat afternoon with CAPES rising to 1000-1800 j/kg by mid to late Saturday afternoon while wind shear values are 15-25 kts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop during mid/late Sat afternoon and continue into Sat evening. SPC introduced a marginal risk of severe storms over all but far eastern/se IL from Watseka to Charleston to Mt Vernon west for gusty winds and hail from mid Sat afternoon through mid Sat evening. Highs Saturday around 80F to lower 80s with dewpoints back up in the low to mid 60s. Convection chances diminish overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning and mainly 20-30% chance in southeast IL by Sunday morning. A short wave moving ne into the Ozarks late Sunday to increase chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms in mainly southeast IL during Sunday afternoon with isolated showers possible late Sunday afternoon about as far north as I-72. Instability is weaker on Sunday so not in a threat of severe storms on Sun afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday in the lower 70s over central IL and 74-78 in southeast IL. The weak short wave trof lifts into southern/sw IL by dawn Monday and into the central Ohio river valley late Monday afternoon, and likely brings showers and chance of thunderstorms into southeast IL Monday while lower chances over northern CWA. SPC day4 outlook for Mon/Mon night keeps severe risk area well west of IL over the central plains centered over central KS. Highs Mon in the mid to upper 70s. Forecast models continue to show a large/strong mid/upper level trof evolving over the Rockies early next week, and ejecting strong low pressure from CO into ND Tue night and into the upper MS river valley Wed night. There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms over IL from this large storm system Tue through Thu with strong to severe storms possible Tue afternoon into Wed evening. SPC Day5 outlook has 15% risk of severe storms over IL Tue afternoon/evening. SPC Day5 outlook has 15% risk of severe storms se of IL on Wed/Wed night, but would not be surprise to see this expanded ne into parts of central and southeast IL Wed afternoon/evening as instability is decent on Tue and Wed with strong wind shear in place. Warm highs Tue/Wed in the lower 80s, except upper 70s nw of the IL river on Wed. Best chances of convection along with possible strong to severe storms shift se of CWA on Thu though still have low pops on Thu especially se half of CWA. Cooler and less humid air arrives on Friday and next Saturday with seasonable highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Light rain and a couple isolated storms will accompany a cold front overnight. Winds will be a bit variable due to outflow from earlier storms, but will eventually set up out of the NW/NNW overnight as the synoptic cold front moves through. Precip will diminish behind the front but MVFR ceilings will overspread the terminals for several hours. Winds will veer to the NE Friday with VFR conditions returning the remainder of the period. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018005432#### FXUS65 KTFX 030932 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 332 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... One more cool and showery day is expected today before milder temperatures move in for the weekend. Another cool and wet Pacific weather system impacts North-central and Southwest Montana Sunday through at least mid next week, with the most significant precipitation and coolest temperatures expected Monday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite and meso-analysis shows abundant cloud cover within a northwesterly flow aloft. Light snow showers have been ongoing all night, mostly over the northerly upslope areas adjacent to the Little Belt, Highwood, and Snowy Mountains. This shower activity will more or less persist through this afternoon with the continued northwesterly flow, though accumulation amounts will generally be negligible. Transient ridging builds in tonight for clearing skies with temperatures bottoming out in the 20s for most locations. Patchy fog development can be expected in spots, but shouldn't be a widespread problem. With one more day of ridging aloft, Saturday should be the driest day over next week while temperatures climb to near of slightly above average. Deep southerly flow aloft develops over Southwest MT Saturday night ahead of a closed low moving onto the Pacific NW coast. This system will trek eastward into S ID on Sunday, placing the Northern Rockies on the ascent side of the system for northward expansion of shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, though temperatures will remain near average for one more day. H700 flow slows down by Sunday afternoon and MU CAPE looks to be around 100 to 300 J/kg (highest southwest MT), so not expecting anything beyond general thunderstorm risks at this time. Ensembles remain in decent agreement with the aforementioned closed low swinging NE into E MT and slowing down some Monday through early Thursday. Although, there are differences on the precise path of the low, most favor cool, wet, and windy periods during this timeframe. According to the NAEFS Standardized Anomaly, H700 temperatures are forecast to be around -8C for much of this event, which would support mountain accumulating snow, but mostly rain at lower elevations. Current probabilistic forecasts for rainfall highlight the eastern portions of North-central MT with the highest chances (50 to 70%) for 1 inch of rainfall during the 72 hr period ending next Thursday at 6 am, with nearly all locations in the CWA standing at least a 50% for a quarter inch of rainfall for the same time period. The one drier exception looks to be southwestern valleys from Dillon to the Three Forks area. As mentioned earlier, thermodynamic profiles should confine accumulating snow to mountain areas, with the Little Belts and the Madison/Gallatin ranges seeing 60% + chances for 8 inches of snow or more Monday through Thursday, with most of it falling Tuesday night into Wednesday. H700 flow on the backside of this low will be at or above the 30 to 40 kt range for an extended period, resulting in gusty to at times strong northwesterly surface winds. While all days Monday through Wednesday look to be on the windier side, Tuesday is being singled out by the EC Extreme Forecast Index and NBM probabilistic forecasts as the windiest day overall, with many locations seeing 70% + chances for wind gusts above 40 mph. Drier and milder conditions move in for Thursday and Friday of next week, though around 50% of the ensembles support weaker troughing remaining in place for non-zero chances for precipitation and near average temperatures heading into next weekend. - RCG && .AVIATION... 1140 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 (03/06Z TAF Period) Mountain areas of Central Montana (KHLN) and Southwest Montana (KBZN KEKS KWYS): VFR conditions are mostly expected to continue through at least 04/06Z. Broken ceilings will continue through at least 18Z, with a few rain and snow showers in the KHLN area possibly causing brief periods of MVFR conditions through 10Z. Partial clearing is expected after 18Z. North Central (KCTB KHVR) and the plains of Central Montana (KGTF KLWT): Northerly upslope flow will continue widespread mountain-top obscuring low VFR/MVFR conditions through at least 14Z. Periods of snow showers may reduced conditions to mountain-obscuring IFR at times. High pressure will start moving into the area from the west after 14Z, decreasing the snow showers and allowing broken ceilings to lift to at least low VFR levels with partial clearing starting after 18Z. -Coulston Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 26 63 42 / 30 0 0 10 CTB 49 26 59 37 / 20 0 0 10 HLN 54 31 68 44 / 10 0 0 10 BZN 51 28 66 41 / 10 0 0 10 WYS 46 20 60 36 / 0 0 0 30 DLN 52 30 65 44 / 10 0 0 40 HVR 50 27 63 39 / 40 0 0 0 LWT 42 23 59 37 / 40 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018005933#### FXUS64 KHUN 030933 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mid-level ridge will continue to shift southeastward and off the Atlantic Coast today, enabling a light (10-20 knot) WSW flow regime aloft to develop across the TN Valley (between the ridge to our southeast and a broad mid/upper-level trough to our northwest that will extend southward into the northern Rockies/Plains). In the low-levels, light southerly flow currently exists across our region to the south of a subtle surface trough extending from central TX east-northeastward through the Arklatex region and into northwestern TN/southwestern KY. Although dewpoints have recovered into the l-m 60s in this regime, an even richer tropical airmass will likely remain confined to the south of a nearly stationary marine warm front immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast. The onset of deep-layer warm/moist advection (aided by a 20-30 knot SSW low-level jet) has resulted in a fairly widespread coverage of rain and embedded thunderstorms early this morning (particularly across northwest AL). Solutions from the 00Z CAMs are in general agreement that this axis of precipitation will continue to spread slowly eastward through the mid-morning hours, warranting high POPs region-wide through 14-15Z. After a temporary minima in the coverage of precipitation late this morning, additional but more scattered convection is expected to develop early this afternoon as the local airmass recovers in the wake of morning rainfall. Highs will not be quite as warm today (u70s-l80s) due to the impact of morning clouds and precip, but this should still be sufficient to produce CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, perhaps a bit higher in the west and a bit lower in the east (based on the lastest HREF). However, given weak deep-layer flow/shear, storms will be unorganized, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary impacts due to PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6 inch range. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Fairly high POPs will remain warranted across the region overnight, as broad scale vertical motions will increase slightly with the passage of a weak mid-level shortwave trough to our northwest. The risk for thunderstorms will remain highest this evening (prior to the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle), with a gradual transition to light rain expected by early Saturday morning. Due to the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer and only light southerly winds, patchy fog will be possible for many locations as well. Present indications are that the general synoptic pattern across our region will change very little on either Saturday or Sunday, although with indications of low-amplitude shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday (in the wake of the shortwave trough), coverage of afternoon showers and storms will likely be somewhat lower compared to today. By late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, the marine warm front (discussed in the near term section) will begin to lift northeastward through the CWFA as a strong upper low tracking into the central Rockies induces surface pressure falls across the high Plains of eastern CO/WY. This will likely support a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Highs will be in the u70s-l80s once again tomorrow, before warming into the l-m 80s Sunday, and lows should remain in the l-m 60s through Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday. Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions early this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and lower ceilings as a slow moving front sweeps into the area. High chances (60-80%) of SHRA/TSRA are forecast during the day which will produce low-end VFR to MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. A few AWWs (and amendments) may be needed especially late this afternoon and evening due to TSRA activity. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...AMP