####018007795#### FXUS61 KRLX 041429 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1029 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1025 AM Saturday... Numerous showers with a couple of rumbles of thunder are over the area this morning. Just some minor tweaks to the forecast to better represent the location of these showers. As of 640 AM Saturday... Current forecast is generally on track as precipitation continues to journey across the area this morning. No significant changes have been made to the near term forecast at this time. As of 315 AM Saturday... Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight, chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of the near term period. Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some localized issues aren't out of the question in poor drainage areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced heavy rain yesterday. Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in the 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Isolated to scattered storms forming ahead of a cold front may grow to be strong to severe Sunday afternoon. * Heavy downpours remain a good possibility within showers and storms, leading to local flooding concerns. Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain entrenched within the short term period. For Sunday, continuing warm and humid conditions will receive support from an approaching cold front to sprout convection during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Storms are progged to form out ahead of the boundary, primarily in southeast Ohio, but as it outruns the front and enters a less unstable airmass east of the Ohio River, activity is expected to weaken. Might see a few instances of strong wind gusts where convection has the best chance of organization. Otherwise, will continue to monitor diminishing flash flood guidance as showers and storms glide over areas that have already received measurable rainfall the past few days. The cold front takes residency along the lower Ohio Valley late in the weekend into the start of the new work week. Up aloft, weak ridging becomes nudged off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the period as an upper level trough propagates through the Intermountain West. Previous model runs hinting at a brief reprieve in activity late Sunday night may still be onto something for early Monday morning as mainly diurnally driven activity wanes, but should return in earnest on Monday. Additional support from a southern stream system riding up along the stalled front will yield a south to north gradient of POPs, with the theme of afternoon convection prevailing once more. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Remaining active through the work week in response to waves of disturbances migrating in from the west. * Daily chances of showers and storms remain each day this week, with possibility of stronger storms arriving around midweek. * Increased chances of localized flooding as areas receive multiple rounds of rainfall. Unsettled weather continues to rule the roost through the work week as shortwave energy rides up along the stalled frontal boundary. Enough instability each day will support afternoon thunderstorm development, and initially remaining fairly diurnally driven that activity wanes during the overnight period. However, heading into midweek, a strong disturbance cycling over the Upper Midwest will drag in greater support under the guise of low level southwesterly flow inflicting increased moisture and temperatures. This would help to sustain convection further into the overnight period and may also assist in stronger convective trends during peak heating hours. QPF values through the course of the week will be heavily dependent on radar trends each day, with growing potential for localized flooding as soil conditions are tested with multi-day shower and storm chances. A cold front by the second half of the work week will attempt to cut off the daily warm and muggy weather. However, showers and perhaps thunderstorm develop remains intact for the weekend in response to additional shortwave support crossing over the area. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 640 AM Saturday... Showers continue to move across the area this morning, with periodic VIS restrictions occurring in rain and fog. A disturbance passing over the area during the day will sustain shower and scattered thunderstorm activity into tonight, while visibilities continue to be impaired within any heavier showers or storms. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR at most sites today, though some improvement may be possible this afternoon. Flight conditions worsen again overnight as fog or low stratus develop and scattered showers continue. Light flow remains under 12kts out of the south to southeast today, with 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. Extent/duration of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H L H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog early Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB ####018006479#### FXUS61 KGYX 041432 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1032 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through today, with increasing onshore flow and humidity. Thickening clouds, cooler temperatures, and rain showers are expected by Sunday as a frontal system approaches New England. Clearing is likely not coming until Monday behind a cold front. Warmer and sunnier conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Northeast radar mosaic continues to show weak returns moving southeastward over southern NH but thus far there haven't been any MPING or ASOS reports of this activity reaching the ground. This is likely due in part to low mid-level RH, as seen on the 12Z KGYX RAOB report. Previously... 648 AM Update...Quick tune up of sky coverage this morning, along with temperature trends through the dawn hours. Little change otherwise. Previously... An upper level ridge moves toward the East Coast while surface high pressure centered near Labrador this morning builds south into the Gulf of Maine today... resulting in another fair weather day, albeit with increasing onshore flow and associated clouds. Signs of increasing low- and mid- level moisture associated with this trend are evident even this morning as patchy ground fog has developed in most places... and a mid- level stratus deck has built over portions of the foothills, where humid NE mid- level flow is dammed against the mountains. The trend for today will be to mix out low clouds and fog initially... but build back some stratocu by the afternoon, mainly over the interior of Maine beneath mixed cirrus decks. The ridge overhead will keep us dry, however it will be cooler than yesterday especially at the coast where temperatures may not or may just barely make it out of the 40s. The warmest and sunniest spots will likely be in the Connecticut and Lower Merrimack River Valleys, with highs in the mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure extending offshore of the Maritimes combined with an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes continues to support southeast flow off the Gulf of Maine... with low clouds filling into an overcast sky for most places tonight, except for the upper Connecticut River Valley which benefits from the Whites blocking humid onshore flow. Some fog and drizzle are likely to develop too, mainly in southern New Hampshire into southwest Maine where low- level humidity will be at its highest. One of the bigger questions for Sunday will be how efficiently we'll be able to mix out low stratus, if at all, before a pre- frontal trough brings a moisture axis and associated rainfall across the region. Model trends have been fairly steady with this wave delivering about 0.2-0.4" for most places... locally higher, lower elsewhere... Sunday afternoon and overnight. While ceilings are forecast to lift a bit during the day, hires guidance coming into view suggests a fair amount of overcast to persist. Thus between clouds and onshore flow, temperatures will be limited to the low- or mid-50s... or 40s, nearby to the coast and if ceilings remain low. A building southeasterly breeze will make conditions feel a bit more raw as well. Rain will exit east Sunday night with drier air pushing in aloft, however at the surface conditions will remain humid with fog and low ceilings likely. Winds will gradually pull more southerly and southwesterly, which will at least cut some of the maritime influence down by Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Unsettled weather expected until a cold front passes Monday morning. High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the latter part of Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as broad low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Details:Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early Monday morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by mid morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying through the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures will be in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s possible for southern NH and into southern Maine's interior. Tuesday follows up as warm and dry, before another period of unsettled weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are likely overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions, and have tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a chance of rain to close out the week. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Spotty/low confidence IFR/LIFR in FG possible this morning... clearing to VFR today with increasing light SE or E flow. Brief MVFR decks possible for interior ME (AUG) this afternoon. Widespread restrictions expected to develop tonight... with MVFR/IFR VSBY, CIGs except at KHIE which likely remains VFR. Some improvement possible on Sun, however increasing RA chances bring restrictions again during afternoon/evening. Low CIGs, possibly low VSBY persist at least along the coast into early Mon. Long Term...Ceilings should improve to VFR at all terminals into Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Unsettled weather likely brings more restrictions from mid-week, onward. && .MARINE... Short Term...NE flow 10-20 kts today turns SE by early Sunday with increasing potential for fog, then rain later in the day and overnight into early Monday. A few gusts near 25 kts are possible, with waves 3-5 ft, though conditions will remain predominantly below SCA thresholds. Long Term...The cold front will pass over the waters Monday morning, bringing better vis conditions through Tuesday. Conditions should remain below SCA criteria with the frontal passage through at least Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs SHORT TERM...Casey LONG TERM...Cornwell