####018003866#### FXUS65 KFGZ 031001 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 301 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the wee. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week. && .DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures. As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great BAsin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal. The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds! With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region. Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected. && .AVIATION...Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing through around 02Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...VFR conditions expected. Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance (10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon. SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions north of the Mogollon Rim. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018005708#### FXUS63 KLBF 031001 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 501 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across southwest Nebraska. - Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the Kansas border. - After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83. - Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900 J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor preventing a more serious convective threat today. Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along the southern flank building toward the greater instability further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out primarily further south closer to the better instability heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend. With the warm front lingering across the region today there will be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 As we head into Sunday, ensemble guidance is in good agreement in moving a strong upper low into the central Rockies and becoming negatively tilted. This will drive development of a deep surface low that will move into the Dakotas and swing a strong cold front across the High Plains early next week. We will start to feel the effects of this system on Sunday as the low level wind field amplifies considerably and southerly flow creates very windy conditions through Sunday night. The cold front will then push across Nebraska on Monday with a lot of synoptic energy setting the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak Monday afternoon into Monday night, primarily across the eastern half of Nebraska. There are a lot of variables in play and small changes in timing or location will have a significant impact on where severe weather will set up. Everyone needs to keep a close eye on this system in the days ahead, especially folks east of Hwy 83. The vertically stacked closed low will be slow to move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes region by the mid to latter portion of next week. This will keep central and western Nebraska breezy, cool, and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or early evening with additional rain showers to follow. A boundary will separate strong southerly winds gusting 30kts at southern terminals (LBF) from relatively lighter east/northeast flow for northern terminals (VTN). Winds should flip to north/northwesterly behind the storms around sunset. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Snively ####018004341#### FXUS66 KSGX 031002 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 302 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Not much change from Thursday for today. A low pressure system moving inland through California for the weekend will bring cooling on Saturday and much greater inland cooling on Sunday. There will be periods of strong and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening with the stronger gusts to 55 to 65 mph. There is also a chance for light showers for late Saturday night into Sunday morning from the coast to mountains. Then warmer and dry for Monday through Thursday, but with high temperatures still a few degrees below average on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... There is once again a well-defined eddy over the coastal waters with widespread low clouds over the southern California bight extending inland across all of the valleys. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler for the coast and valleys and a few degrees warmer for the deserts. A low pressure system will move inland through California on Saturday night with stronger onshore flow for the weekend. There will areas of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening with the stronger winds along the desert slopes of the mountains late Saturday night and across the deserts on Sunday afternoon. Gusts to 55 to 65 mph are expected in the windier locations with isolated gusts to around 75 mph. High temperatures will be a few to around 5 degrees cooler than today on Saturday with Sunday much cooler inland with the mountains and deserts another 12 to 18 degrees cooler. There is a chance for light showers for late Saturday night into Sunday morning with amounts ranging from a few hundredths of an inch or less near the coast to one-quarter to locally one-half inch on the coastal slopes of the mountains with the greater amounts most likely on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Dry with high temperatures on Monday several degrees warmer than Sunday, as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer for the mountains and high desert. Much slower warming for Tuesday through Thursday with Thursday high temperatures still a few degrees below average. && .AVIATION... 030930Z...Coasts/Valleys...BKN-OVC low clouds cover most areas west of the mtns, with bases around 1500 ft MSL and tops to 2500 ft. Higher terrain will be obscured at times. Most VIS below the clouds will be unrestricted, except local VIS 3-5 miles with fog in the valleys through 18Z. Clearing will be 16Z-19Z in the valleys and 18Z- 21Z near the coast, with areas of BKN clouds continuing at the beaches Fri afternoon. Low clouds will spread inland again Fri evening with slightly higher bases. Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS will continue through Fri evening. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds late Saturday through Sunday evening are likely to generate hazardous boating conditions, especially in the outer waters (30-60 NM from the coast). Current projections for strongest winds are on Sunday when gusts could be 25- 30 knots near San Clemente Island with a few gusts 20-25 knots near the coast. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...PG