####018007778#### FXUS65 KSLC 031035 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 435 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An approaching storm system will bring much warmer conditions Saturday with strong afternoon winds for portions of Utah. A cold front will track into Utah Sunday. Lighter winds, cooler conditions, valley rain, and mountain snow are likely once the front pushes through. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...A grazing shortwave with a weak cold front has brought showers, snow above roughly 6000 feet to southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Drier conditions will build in through the morning from west to east as the trough axis will push downstream. Shortwave ridging will build in Friday night into Saturday, with a clear, chilly night into Saturday. Strong warm air advection will push valley temperatures into the 70s and 80s as a longwave trough with a closed low track into the PacNW. As it digs southeast, flow aloft will increase through the day. With very dry conditions and strong lapse rates, that flow will be efficient to mix. The strongest winds will not be until later Saturday afternoon, through the overnight, and into Sunday. The main uncertainty is with valley winds during the overnight Saturday into Sunday. That is when there is good agreement on the strongest winds aloft, with more than 50 knots at 700 mb. While conditions will be dry, increasing cloud cover and timing will work against efficient mixing. That could allow for surface winds to stay steady or decrease slightly. The most confidence for winds to hit at least advisory criteria is for southwest Utah, specifically for portions of Iron, Beaver, and Millard counties, including Cedar City, Delta, and Milford. Models have almost 100% probabilities gusts of more than 45 mph Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with more than 50% confidence for winds exceeding High Wind Warning speeds. There is lower confidence in places like lower Washington County and Zion National Park that often don't get as windy as guidance with southwest flow. High-resolution guidance will give more confidence. Winds will drop off for those locations as a baroclinc zone pushes into Utah Sunday. There are differences in timing of several hours, but high confidence in the front pushing into western Utah during the morning and into the urban corridor late morning or early afternoon. Strong cold air advection, forcing, and a transition to northwest winds will come with the boundary. There is a low, roughly 15% chance for thunderstorms near the boundary. Snow levels will drop from roughly 9000 feet to 5000-5500 feet after the front pushes through. The northern Utah mountains will get the most precipitation, with most of that behind the front with upslope orographic enhancement. Snow water equivalent of 1-2 inches is likely, locally higher in the upper Cottonwoods and Ogden area mountains. There will be a range of snowfall for the mountains, with generally 6-12 inches, but locally around 24 inches for those aforementioned locations. Many northern valleys will get around 1 inch rainfall from Sunday and Monday. For far southern and eastern portions of Utah, Sunday will be a windy day in the warm sector, with similar wind speeds and gusts as western Utah. The front will push through there Sunday into Monday. Precipitation will generally be lower further southeast. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...A common theme appears to be in store for the bulk of the long term portion of the forecast, and that is a continuation of cool, unsettled conditions. Kicking things off on Monday, model solution space is in universal agreement in their depictions of negative height anomalies in place across the PacNW and Northern Rockies, courtesy of the presence of a broad longwave trough. Closer to home, northern Utah will reside within broad cyclonic flow in the wake of a departing low and cold front, and this will maintain showery conditions across northern valleys with snow showers in the mountains. Monday morning, snow levels drop down to as low as 5000-5500 feet, low enough to support snow on benches. If we peer into the realm of the low outcome probability spectrum, we do indeed see 90th percentile/10% probability snowfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch to as high as 1-2 inches on benches. In the northern and central mountains, there is a high probability of snow showers persisting through the day. As you might imagine, temperatures will be well below early May normals Monday, checking in some 10F to 20F below seasonal normals. Brrr. By Tuesday, slight temperature moderation is seen across extreme southern Utah while central and northern Utah see steady state temperatures and a smattering of valley rain and mountain snow showers. We once again cannot rule out snow showers down to benches Monday night Tuesday morning. Surely, lake effect snow cannot happen in May, right? Lake effect snow probabilities suggest that yes, it indeed could. Local lake effect snow probability output reaches as high as 40% Sunday night, 30% Monday morning and 20-30% Tuesday morning. An early look at lake effect snow parameters do suggest the ingredients are in place (sufficient lake sfc to 700mb delta Ts, favorable fetch, steep low to mid level lapse rates and sufficient moisture in the DGZ). How much this could contribute to totals is uncertain at this time and will require further analysis and refinement particularly as we get into the high-resolution horizon, generally within 48 hrs. As we nudge time into the midweek portion of the forecast, we see a continuation of cool, northerly flow trajectories across the region with an easing of the cyclonic flow regime thanks to the gradual weakening/departing trough. Deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement through Thursday in their depictions of this evolution. For you and me living here at the surface, this translates to a continuation of cool, albeit moderating conditions through midweek, although we can't rule out diurnally-driven showers through Thursday, particularly over terrain features of northern Utah. We do begin to see the emergence of some divergence in the solution space by Friday, with approximately 1/3 of the solutions hanging onto negative height anomalies while the remainder of the ensembles are more progressive with a ridge nudging into the area. If the troughy scenario plays out, expect temperatures to remain 0F- 10F below normals by Friday, while the other camp of solutions suggests temperatures warming back to normal and perhaps slightly above by Friday. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered to broken ceilings will last through the morning. Clouds will diminish through the afternoon. Light northwest winds will last through the day. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MVFR or lower ceilings are likely for southwest Wyoming and portions of northern Utah most of the morning. Clouds will diminish through through the day there, with mostly clear conditions elsewhere. Light northwest winds will last through the day for southwest Wyoming and most of Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for UTZ115-122. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wilson LONG TERM...ADeSmet AVIATION...Wilson For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity ####018005376#### FXUS65 KPSR 031036 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 336 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above normal temperatures are expected today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow currently exists over the Desert Southwest while the persistent troughing feature over the Intermountain West gradually begins to push east this morning. Though a weak upper ridge will traverse the Pacific Northwest later today and continue eastward, heights aloft will be relatively unchanged over the forecast area through tomorrow, and so afternoon high temperatures will be stable in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. The trough evident in current mid-lvl wv imagery off the Pacific Northwest Coast is expected to dive south along the West Coast Saturday, move inland, and traverse the Great Basin Sunday. The tightening pressure gradient ahead of and along the southern periphery of this trough will bring widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday. A dry cold front associated associated with this system will also sweep through the CWA Sunday, leading to high temperatures dropping between 5-10 degrees across the lower deserts (and potentially more in the western deserts) on Sunday compared to their forecast values on Saturday. NBM guidance continues to show upwards of 80-90% probability for gusts to 40+ mph across Southwest Imperial County including the Imperial Valley Saturday afternoon/evening. As a result, Wind Advisories have been issued for portions of Imperial County late Saturday afternoon into the evening, with the Advisory over far southwestern Imperial County remaining in effect through Sunday afternoon. Global models depict 700 mb winds peaking around 40-50 kts early Sunday morning over Southeastern California, so the strongest winds aloft will not coincide with peak daytime heating that would allow higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. Thus, the strongest winds will be confined to high terrain locations overnight. Strong winds spread east across Arizona Sunday with afternoon gusts to 30-40 mph likely (>70%) across portions of South-Central Arizona. Additional wind headlines may be needed for portions of Imperial County on Sunday, as well as the high terrain zones of South-Central AZ within and around Southern Gila County. Dust channels may develop across dust prone areas as a result of the strong winds this weekend, which can reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Longwave troughing will continue to be reinforced over the Intermountain West through Monday which will also feature near to slightly below normal temperatures and continued daytime breeziness across the region. Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures look to slowly rebound to slightly above normal, however the overall longwave troughing pattern across the Western CONUS looks to persist. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies, with easterly winds overnight transitioning to a period of southerly winds through the early afternoon hours tomorrow before a full transition out of the west. Wind speeds will generally remain aob 10 kts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 12 kts, while southerly winds at IPL expected to become westerly during the evening hours tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds expected today. Afternoon highs will be slightly above normal today and tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will pass to the north of the region this weekend, leading to gusty winds, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Winds could gust in excess of 40 mph across parts of SE California Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday morning/afternoon, while gusts climb to 30-40 mph across southcentral AZ on Sunday. Afternoon min RHs will bottom out around 10-20% over the next few days, while overnight recoveries remain in the poor to fair category between 30-60% for most areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ563-566-567. && $$ DISCUSSION...Whittock AVIATION...Young FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Smith ####018007445#### FXUS63 KIND 031037 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 637 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damp and mild today, with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms, especially this morning. - Potential for fog late tonight. - Multiple chances for showers and storms throughout most of the forecast period, with continued above normal temperatures. - Potential for severe weather during the middle of next week, highest chances Tuesday evening and Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A fairly ordinary damp spring day is expected across central Indiana today, with weak surface low pressure to our northwest pushing a frontal boundary through the region as a modest upper level disturbance slides through the area. Despite the presence of a fairly moist airmass, with precipitable water values toward the upper end of climatology, modest forcing and what should be very weak destabilization given fairly widespread cloud cover throughout the morning and into the afternoon will limit intensity of showers and coverage of thunderstorms, though a slight uptick in the latter may be seen along the boundary this afternoon if some clearing can occur. Very weak deep layer shear will limit the intensity of these storms even in the presence of some slightly more modest instability. Total rainfall across the area through tonight should be light, around a third of an inch or less. Fairly good dry advection throughout much of the column will bring an end to any lingering showers and storms during the evening hours, with most of the area dry throughout tonight. Depending on the degree of lingering high cloud cover, the damp ground may promote fog development late tonight, and will have to keep an eye out for dense fog if more significant clearing occurs. Widespread clouds and precip, especially early in the day, will limit insolation and keep highs today no warmer than about the mid 70s, with lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday Through Sunday. For much of the long term, the Ohio Valley will be well positioned within an unstable atmosphere, leading to unsettled weather and higher uncertainty than usual. For Saturday, the surface moisture will recover quickly behind a weak cold front with steady low to mid level lapse rates leading to widespread 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. There will not be much in the way of forcing given the short wave still well off to the east, but weak subtle waves from upstream convection should be enough for isolated to scattered thunderstorms (With a focus over S. IN) for much of Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe weather looks unlikely for Saturday (Given negligible dynamics), but cannot be ruled due to a shallow midlevel dry layer and a deep instability profile. This should allow a few isolated thunderstorm cores to reach >25kft, of which could produce small hail and strong wind gusts. A boundary out ahead of the aforementioned wave will progress eastward throughout the day Saturday, leading to a continued threat for convection on Saturday night. This boundary is expected to initiate an MCS over IA/IL during the day on Saturday, but mid to upper level dynamics will be weak, and will make eastward propagation more challenging, especially as diurnal temperature inversions develop Saturday night. With that said, if updrafts can sustain themselves into western Indiana, an isolated severe threat (although unlikely) is possible Saturday evening. Regardless, this boundary should pass throughout Saturday night, with showers/thunderstorms weakening as they progress across the state. Barring a few lingering showers Sunday morning, the remainder of the day should be quiet with highs in the mid 70s. Monday Through Thursday. By early next week, another shortwave is expected to develop within the subtropical jet and push E/N into the Ohio Valley. High pressure in the wake of the previous system could hinder northward progression of the wave, creating some uncertainty if showers and thunderstorms will reach this far north on Monday. Given the short period of potential rainfall, QPF isnt expected to be high, but long range soundings are hinting at rather efficient rain producers leading to a marginal concern for flooding. Details are still very hazy at this point, leading to low confidence in any hazards for Monday The next round of unsettled weather will push into the region shortly after, with another trough, albeit deeper, over the Inter- Mountain West by Tuesday. This time around, a more organized low pressure system is expected to develop, rapidly deepening as it reaches the Great Plains. As the low develops, convergence east of the low should create a weak warm-frontal region and associated isentropic ascent. This lift is expected to reach the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley sometime Monday night into Tuesday, leading to showers and some elevated thunderstorms. Following this warm front passage, central Indiana will be within a moderately unstable environment with a mid and upper level jet aloft. Although uncertainty is high on timing and specifics, this should lead to a few rounds of more organized convection Tuesday through Thursday, including a threat for severe convection. Greatest chances for severe weather looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The thunderstorm and severe threat should decrease late week as AVA and modest CAA returns leading to high pressure and a drier overall airmass. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Impacts: - Scattered showers early in the period, with occasional MVFR conditions mid morning into early afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms possible, but too uncertain for inclusion. - Fog possible very late in the period, depending upon how much cloud cover lingers tonight. Discussion: Scattered showers have overspread much of the area this morning. This activity will continue much of the morning into early afternoon, before lessening from west to east as a front moves through the area. Some occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in these showers, though not as widespread as previous expectations. Will carry TEMPO MVFR conditions at all sites but LAF. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but too low probability/uncertain for inclusion in the TAFs. Winds will be variable or westerly early on, becoming more northerly and then northeasterly later in the period, 10KT or less throughout. Depending upon the character of the mid and high cloud cover that will linger tonight, and the degree of clearing, some fog will be possible, but will not mention at this time. If clearing is substantial, wet ground from the rainfall may promote patchy dense fog late tonight into Saturday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...Updike AVIATION...Nield ####018003924#### FXUS63 KDVN 031038 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 538 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week. - The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday for portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Following yesterday's all day rain in much of eastern Iowa (thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we're in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure moves through our northern counties. Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to 12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist transport. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast. The frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC's placement of marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA. These would be progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end. Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean. Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Shallow dense fog will be possible in northeast Iowa through 13Z this morning, possibly affecting CID and DBQ. After 13Z, a VFR weather will be widespread over eastern Iowa and Illinois through late evening tonight, then some high clouds will be possible after 06z tonight, as showers and thunderstorms move through western and center Iowa. After 12Z Saturday, rain and some thunderstorms will begin moving over eastern Iowa. Wind will be light through the next 24 hours. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin ####018008348#### FXUS62 KGSP 031038 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 638 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure moves off the Carolina coast as a front approaches from the west then stalls over our region for the weekend. This front will result in periodic thunderstorms and showers starting today and lingering through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 am EDT Friday: Height falls will impact the East through the near term, with associated slow-moving/zonally-oriented frontal zone expected to sag toward our forecast area later today into tonight. Deep layer lift...albeit relatively weak...will approach the CWA late today into tonight, while SW flow will result in increasing levels of moisture, with forecast soundings indicating precipitable waters will be in the ~90th percentile category for the day. Therefore, conditions will become increasingly favorable for convective development as the day progresses. Scattered showers are already covering much of north GA and east TN this morning, and some of these appear poised to move over portions of our GA counties as well as far SW NC through the morning, warranting steadily increasing PoPs in those areas over the next 2-6 hours. Otherwise, high and mid level clouds will continue to increase through the morning...resulting in cooler conditions than on Thursday, while mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor. As such, surface-based instability will be quite tame at 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon. Meanwhile, wind shear parameters will be very unremarkable, with 0-6km bulk shear ~20 kts. So, the conditional probability of severe storms is about as close to 0 as it gets. There could be locally heavy rainfall with deeper cells and/or if an area of training cells manages to materialize. However, dry antecedent conditions should preclude a notable excessive rainfall threat. While a general decrease in coverage and intensity of convection is expected this evening, high moisture content combined with continued modest lift is expected to result in scattered convection (primarily showers) persisting well into the overnight, with perhaps a locally heavy rainfall event or two possible. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above climo through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday: Upper ridging will remain over the East Coast on Saturday before gradually pushing east into the western Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. At the sfc the forecast area will be caught in-between two sfc highs (one over New England/SE Canada and one over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest) as a cold front slowly approaches out of the west. The front should remain north and west of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night. This messy pattern will lead to 850 mb S/SW'ly flow allowing for an influx of Gulf moisture across Southeast through the weekend, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Went with likely to categorical PoPs Saturday through early Sunday evening and chance PoPs Sunday night. With PWATs expected to climb well above climo (~1.6 inches east of the mtns and ~1.3 inches across the mtns) and weak shear (~10-15 kts) leading to slow storm motion, heavy rainfall will accompany shower and thunderstorm activity. However, the overall threat for flash flooding looks to remain low due to dry antecedent conditions. Nuisance flooding cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for areas that see heavy rainfall repeatedly track over the same locations. SBCAPE looks to range from ~700-1500 J/kg each afternoon per the HRRR, GFS, Canadian and ECMWF. The NAM and NAMNest are much more bullish regarding SBCAPE through the weekend but this looks overdone as widespread cloud cover from the influx of Gulf moisture should limit destabilization somewhat. Thus, the severe potential looks rather low through the weekend thanks to the low wind shear and increased cloud cover. The SPC Day 2 and 3 Severe Weather Outlooks have the GSP forecast area in a general thunder risk which looks reasonable at this time. However, a few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for any areas that see breaks in cloud cover. Highs on Saturday will end up near climo to a few degrees below climo thanks to SSE'ly sfc winds, convection and cloud cover. Highs on Sunday will climb to around 3-5 degrees above climo thanks to sfc winds turning more S/SSW. Lows through the short term will end up around 10-13 degrees above climo thanks to clouds limiting radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday: The workweek will kick off similar to the weekend as the aforementioned cold front remains stalled over the Lower Midwest/Ohio Valley region. This will allow for another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Despite SBCAPE looking slightly higher on Monday compared to the weekend, widespread cloud cover and weak shear should linger, allowing the severe weather threat to remain low. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday's, ending up around 3-5 degrees above climo. Lows Monday night will remain around 10-12 degrees above climo thanks to some lingering cloud cover. Drier conditions may return for most of the forecast area, with the exception of the NC/TN border, Tuesday through early Thursday as the stalled front gradually lifts northward across the Ohio Valley/eastern Great Lakes region. Convective chances increase again late Thursday into Friday as an upper low approaches out of the northwest. Highs should climb into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday through Friday, which is around 7- 12 degrees above climo. Lows should remain around 10-12 degrees above climo through the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the Terminal Forecast Area through the day, with steadily increasing high/mid clouds expected. An upper level disturbance and associated moisture plume will approach the area throughout the day, allowing for expansion of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. However, scattered showers are already amassing just upstream of the area across north GA and east TN. Some of these initial SHRA could brush past the upstate SC terminals and KAVL later this morning, but the better chances should hold off until this afternoon. Scattered coverage of convection is expected this pm...at least across the western half of the area...warranting Prob30s for -TSRA at most sites during the afternoon/early evening. Current indications are that instability will decrease toward the east, so thunder is omitted from the KCLT TAF for the time being. While some diminishment of convective coverage is expected this evening...showers will remain possible well into the overnight hours/early Saturday. A consensus of high resolution guidance suggests another period of scattered showers circa 12Z Sat, so most TAFs receive another Prob30 (for SHRA) during that time frame. Chances for restrictions in fog/stratus will also increase toward sunrise Sat, and MVFR conditions are included at all sites. Winds will generally be calm or light/variable early this morning, becoming SW at 5-10 kts by afternoon. Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through early next week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JDL