####018006176#### FXUS62 KCAE 031040 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy fog and stratus possible early this morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active weather for the weekend and early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Fog has become dense in the southeast Midlands, so advisory issued until 1000 am for that area....Pressure ridge centered off the coast of North Carolina is extending into the area this morning and will remain in place. This will result in weak south- easterly low level onshore flow. Expecting some stratus and fog toward morning focused in the southeast Midlands. Guidance is favoring stratus but will monitor for areas of dense fog which could develop closer to dawn. The upper ridge along the coast will shift a bit further east today as weak short wave troughs over the Deep South move over the area later this afternoon. Moisture will increase with south low level flow with precipitable water increase to around 1.5 inches, possibly a little higher by early evening. A more well defined upper trough will approach late tonight. These short waves may trigger scattered convection by this afternoon with a focus in the CSRA and SC Piedmont. The showers may progress into the central Midlands by the early evening. Overall instability appears weak with CAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Some weak low level convergence noted by late afternoon from the CSRA into the west Midlands. The latest CAMS show scattered coverage moving into the CSRA this afternoon and then moving into the central Midlands early this evening. Lower pops east of CAE through the day into the evening, but a few possible overnight. Overall qpf light up to 0.10 in a few storms and focused in the west. High temperatures today should be a little cooler than yesterday with more cloud cover and potential for showers. Stayed near the NBM temperature guidance, so highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The axis of an upper level ridge shifts east of the forecast area early Saturday morning. Southerly flow strengthens, leading to increasing atmospheric moisture with PWAT values around 1.75 inches, well above normal for this time of year. PWAT values remain high through Saturday night with NAEFS percentile values 99 to 99.5 percent of climatological maxima. A series of shortwaves will move over the ridge on Saturday, first in the morning hours then a more pronounced shortwave later in the afternoon. The warm, moist low- level flow will lead to moderate instability on Saturday afternoon. Mean mixed layer CAPE values from the SPC SREF are around 1000 J/kg. With a lack of a surface feature, we should see convective activity coinciding with the shortwaves, with first some scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon given the abnormally moist atmosphere. Weak 0-6km shear of 5 to 10 kts favors a pulse type storm mode and limits the threat of organized thunderstorms. A near saturated vertical profile also limits the threat of downburst winds so severe weather is unlikely. Convection will diminish through the night and into early Sunday morning as the second shortwave moves east. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread showers, highs on Saturday are expected to be closer to average or a little below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A persistent pattern of broad ridging over the Southeast is expected to continue through much of the long term. The WPC Cluster Prototype Page shows very little variance between ensemble members until late next week. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the region bringing unsettled weather for Sunday into early next week with at least a high chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Atmospheric moisture is likely to remain well above normal through Monday night with NAEFS PWATs at the 90th percentile of climatological maxima. Ensemble members diverge in atmospheric moisture for the remainder of the long term with some showing drier air pushing into the region for Tuesday. Temperatures will be well above normal next week, particularly the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s possible. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions at the moment. Restrictions in stratus, possible fog toward morning with highest probability at OGB. High pressure along the coast. Shallow low-level moisture across the area this morning. Stratus/with some fog has developed across the area. Fog is dense at OGB, IFR,MVFR fog at other sites. But LIFR stratus is widespread or near terminals. The stratus should lift by 14z with scattered cumulus developing by late morning or early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to increase. Ceilings expected to be mid level this afternoon. Winds will be light southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. Air mass becomes more moist in the afternoon and weakly unstable. Convective models suggest some scattered showers or a thunderstorms may develop in Georgia and move into the CSRA near the AGS/DNL terminals in the afternoon. Coverage should be scattered. The showers may move into central SC but more likely after 00z Saturday. Low clouds may develop late tonight resulting in restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late night/early morning fog possible through the period. Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms over the Weekend into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ037-041- 135>137. GA...None. && $$ ####018005250#### FXUS63 KFSD 031041 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 541 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns late this afternoon/evening and continues through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts between a quarter to up to a half an inch are expected. Ponding on roads along with minor stream and river flooding are again possible. - Dry through the weekend with temperatures at or just below normal for this time of year. - A strong low pressure system looks to bring renewed storm chances and moderate to heavy rain on Monday but details remain uncertain as of now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Look for a quiet start to the day before a cold front/inverted surface trough encroaches on the area by late afternoon/evening. Although skies are clear very early this morning, clouds will increase during the day as the system approaches. Warm air advection overspreading the region will allow 850 temperatures to climb to 8- 10 degrees C over the southeastern CWA, and this will result in highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s over that area. Back to the west where clouds will be increasing and warm air advection is less pronounced on the back side of the inverted trough, highs will only reach the upper 50s to near 60 from east central SD back into south central SD. By late afternoon and early evening, a shortwave lifts into the area in a southwesterly upper level flow, as the inverted trough/frontal boundary begins to push to the east. Models indicate strong mid/low level frontogenesis developing through central SD during this time frame - with upper level lift increasing as a jet streak streams from west/central SD into MN. With that, a band of rain will develop in our far west around 22Z, then move eastward across the CWA during the overnight period. Models indicate any significant instability remaining bottled up over NE, so precipitation should be primarily in the form of rain, with only a low chance of isolated lightning strikes. Latest guidance would suggest rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch across the area through early Saturday morning. The majority of the CAMs have the band of rain to the east of our CWA by 12Z on Saturday morning. With the departure of this system, we look on track for a dry weekend as surface high pressure settles into the Northern Plains. The 850 mb thermal trough drops across the area on Saturday, and with cold air advection highs will fall back to the lower to mid 60s. By Sunday the surface ridge shifts into the Mississippi Valley, and in a returning southerly flow, temperatures will warm into the the mid and upper 60s. Our next significant chance of rain comes into the forecast for the beginning of next week. Models continue to indicate a strong upper level low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains by Monday. Still seeing model differences with regard to the evolution of this low, with the GFS/Canadian swinging the low into the Central Plains initially, then into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. The ECMWF offers a more northerly solution, taking the low directly into the Northern Plains on Monday - so there does remain some uncertainty in the details. While there will be the potential for thunderstorms with the system, confidence in severe chances is low. Both the GEFS/GEPS ensembles indicate moderate probabilities (40- 50%) of CAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG on Monday afternoon, though the ENS ensembles indicate only a 10-20% - again a reflection of differences in how the system evolves. As mentioned in the previous discussion, CIPS analogs do have low probabilities of severe storms in our area - the higher potential definitely remains to the south of our area - through the Central and Southern Plains. What does look more certain is the potential for at least moderate rain, with ensembles showing a 80-90% probability of at least a quarter inch of rain for the period Monday into Tuesday - and even a 40-50% probability of receiving at least a half an inch during the same time frame. Models indicate the upper level low remaining stagnant and rotating over the Northern Plains, albeit weakening, through the middle and end of next week. This will keep at least some chance of showers over our area through the period. Temperatures look to be just either side of normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions expected through the day, then a band of showers will push across the area by this evening into tonight as a frontal boundary moves through the region. Ceilings will lower into the MVFR range with this precipitation. Southerly winds out ahead of the boundary will transition to northwesterly behind the front, increasing for a period with gusts around 20 kts. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM ####018007480#### FXUS61 KBUF 031041 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 641 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to slide east into New England today supporting mainly dry weather for most of the day. A warm front to the west of the area will move across the region today, supporting a surge in warm air, allowing temperatures to topple out well above average today. A pair of slow moving cold fronts will then pass across the area tonight through Sunday supporting a couple of rounds of showers and possible a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will slide east toward the New England coast today, all the while the upper level ridge axis passes across the area. Additionally, a warm front will push northeastward this morning due to some freshening southerly low level flow. Overall this will support warm air advection today, causing temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across the vast majority of the region with a few low to mid 80s possible across far WNY and the traditional warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Areas along the lake shore will be cooler. With the high exiting the region through much of today, expect the vast majority of the day to be on the dry side. However, as the aforementioned upper level ridge axis drifts east across the eastern half of the state, southwesterly flow will advect in deeper moisture this afternoon through evening. Eventually by late Friday a cold front will interact with the increasing moisture, and in combination of diurnal heating a few scattered showers and thunderstorms may result. The best focus will lie along the lake breeze boundary inland from Lake Erie. The cold front will then gradually pass across Lake Erie tonight before stalling across Western New York by Saturday morning. This will support showers and thunderstorms to continue to spread across WNY throughout the night. Expect a mild night Friday with lows ranging in the 50s, with the warmer readings occuring along the Lake Erie shoreline. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A mid level ridge axis will move from NY/PA Saturday morning to off the east coast by Sunday afternoon. A few weak mid level shortwaves will move east into the ridge position and weaken with time. Despite the presence of a ridge aloft, the weekend will be unsettled as a slow moving low level trough and associated plume of deep moisture drifts across the eastern US beneath the mid level ridge. Model guidance has shown some run to run variability with respect to timing of the most organized rain. The general trend since yesterday has been to decrease rain potential on Saturday (especially in the afternoon) while increasing rain chances Sunday. Saturday, a mid level shortwave will move across the eastern Great Lakes and weaken as it encounters the persistent ridge over NY/PA. A weak surface trough and associated area of low level moisture convergence will move across the area in the morning and provide some focus for a few areas of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two, with the best coverage likely found across Western NY. This trough largely washes out by the afternoon, and ascent and moisture temporarily fade across the eastern Great Lakes. While there may still be a few spotty showers, Saturday afternoon and evening should feature plenty of rain free time. Saturday night will start with only spotty coverage of showers and plenty of rain free areas during the evening. Another mid level shortwave will then move from the Ohio Valley into NY/PA later Saturday night through Sunday, bringing renewed ascent. A plume of deeper moisture will be advected northward into the area as low/mid level SSW flow increases in response to a digging trough over the upper Great Lakes. The increase in forcing and moisture will allow for a commensurate increase in rain coverage from southwest to northeast late Saturday night through Sunday across the region. There may be just enough instability to support some isolated weak thunder. The mid and low level trough axis will gradually move east into New England later Sunday and Sunday night, with rain tapering off from west to east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure over northwest Ontario will ridge southeastward into the Great Lakes Monday, with an associated bubble of dry air bringing a return to dry weather. The dry weather will last into at least Tuesday morning. Model guidance begins to show some spread by Tuesday afternoon with the arrival of the next system. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean continues to be on the fast side of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and GEM are slower. For now kept some chance POPS for Tuesday afternoon, but if the slower guidance verifies Tuesday will end up being dry. Wednesday through Thursday an expansive mid level low will gradually move east across the north central US. A series of mid level shortwaves will eject out of this system and move east across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, with each feature bringing ascent and deeper moisture to the region. This will produce occasional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for mid to late week next week. Temperatures will continue to run above average through all of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A combination of exiting high pressure to the east into New England this morning and the entering warm front pushing across WNY this morning is supporting VFR flight conditions. Some thickening mid to upper level cloud decks this morning as the warm front approaches the region. Despite the increasing cloud cover, VFR conditions will persist. As the next cold front approaches the warm front today, a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible after 18Z. This afternoon through tonight, a chance of showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm across western NY after 18z. As such the MVFR wit a few patches of IFR cigs should not arrive until late tonight mainly across the western Southern Tier. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms. Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR. Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through Sunday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/JM ####018004286#### FXUS61 KBGM 031042 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 642 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and warm conditions return again on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 350 AM Update... Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some showers that will start to enter our western zones by early Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY. Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning's forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few thunderstorms. Both fronts aren't strong. despite a decent southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around 1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture and letting less rain run off. Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update... Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest. Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain. Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in this period. High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through today, however confidence decreases late tonight and early Saturday morning. High pressure exits the region late today and a frontal system will be pushing rain showers into the region after midnight. However, at this time, model guidance is showing showers holding off until early Saturday morning, so left them out of the forecast for now. Clouds will increase late tonight, but not expecting any restrictions. Best chances for MVFR restrictions will be at ELM very late in the forecast period, but confidence is low at this time. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Monday through Tuesday...Mostly dry Monday to midday Tuesday, but increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MPK ####018009091#### FXUS62 KRAH 031042 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area this morning will shift to our southeast later today. A surface backdoor front will drop into northeast North Carolina tonight then stall out, holding over North Carolina through Saturday before slowly washing out. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region from late today through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Friday... A last largely dry day before we start trending wetter, esp W. Very weak surface troughing sits over the W Piedmont of NC currently, capped by the mid-upper level ridge axis extending over the central and eastern Carolinas. PWs remain on the low side, under 1" except in our far S (where there is a risk for some stratus and fog for a few hours early this morning). With stable and dry mid levels, we'll again be dry today, albeit with increasing high then mid level clouds, along with a few high-based afternoon cu, as a mid level perturbation/remnant MCV currently over the Mid South shifts eastward into our area. Low level thicknesses will again be well above normal, with models showing values several meters higher than yesterday when we reached the upper 80s to lower 90s. The gradual increase and thickening of clouds will curb heating slightly, but we should still be able to reach the upper 80s to around 90, perhaps a few lower 90s east, close to but generally below record highs (see climate section below). As the steadily dampening wave shifts E of the Appalachians, clouds will continue to spread in tonight from the W, with PWs near or above 1.5" spreading into at least the Piedmont and Sandhills. CAPE is minimal and elevated, and the flattening wave and weak mid level flow will provide little in the way of dynamic forcing for ascent. but the deepening moisture and a couple hundred J/kg will be enough to support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm overnight, in the Triad this evening then spreading into the rest of the Piedmont after midnight. In addition, models are in good agreement that the backdoor front now stretching across the Mid Atlantic region will continue to push southward into our area late tonight, bringing an area of stratus spreading in from the N and NE, and increasing low level mass convergence along this backdoor front may prompt additional light rain areas in its vicinity. Lows from around 60 the mid 60s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Friday... Confidence is high on increasing chances for showers and a few storms, although no one will see rain the entire day, and pinpointing the location and motion of what should be shower/storm clusters is challenging. PWs will continue to rise, with models indicating a swath of 1.5-1.75" values surging up through central NC, in the 90th percentile and even nearing daily records. This will occur in tandem with increasing low level moisture flux drawing Atlantic moisture into our area. As the backdoor front settles further into the area Sat morning, followed by a very gradual weakening and washing out, the considerable stratus over much of the area, esp N and W sections, will hinder heating and destabilization until it retreats and breaks up later in the day. And our large scale dynamic forcing for ascent will be poor, given the weak mid- upper level flow, but we may still feel the effects of MCVs emanating from today's Plains convection as it shifts into our area late Sat through Sat night. All of this supports scattered to numerous clusters of showers and storms, particularly in areas W of I-95 where moisture will be deepest, with the highest pops in the Triad and perhaps a secondary focus along the weakening backdoor frontal zone. The storm threat will be limited, given the weak deep layer bulk shear and modest CAPE, but a few storms will remain possible mainly in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist overnight with further moistening of the low levels with confluent 925 mb southerly flow strengthening to 15-25 kts with both Atlantic and Gulf taps. While areally averaged rainfall amounts aren't likely to be high, given the anomalously high PW and somewhat slow storm motion with cell mergers possible, isolated areas could see local rainfall totals that could present minor urban flooding issues, esp in the Triad region, despite the recent dry weather. With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, expect highs from the mid 70s N and W to lower-mid 80s SE. Lows in the 60s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 250 AM Friday... ...Elevated Rain Chances Will Linger Through Monday... ...Heat Returns Middle Part of Next Week... Sunday and Sunday night: The stalled sfc front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. Subtle upper disturbances coupled with the development of weak to moderate buoyancy during the afternoon will act upon the elevated PWATS (150- 160% of normal)in place over the region to support afternoon showers and storms. Shear is generally less than 20 kts, so the threat for organized severe storms is near zero. The moist PWATs and associated mostly cloudy skies and rain chances should temper afternoon temps. Highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Under mostly cloudy skies, mild overnight temps in the 60s. Monday and Monday night: A compact shortwave trough over the Mid MS Valley will become increasingly sheared as it crosses the central and southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and through the Mid Atlantic States Monday night. PWATs are forecast to increase to ~200% of normal as the trough and associated DPVA moves through the area. As such, expect another healthy uptick in diurnal coverage and PoPs Monday afternoon and into the evening. Shear remains weak. Thus, the threat for severe storms remains low. Low-level thicknesses are on par or slightly higher than Sunday. Highs 80-85. Lows in the 60s. Tuesday through Thursday: Rain chances will lessen during this period, with weak disturbances moving atop the ridge providing the primary focus for scattered shower and storms, mainly across northern portion of the forecast area. The main weather headlines will be the return of the heat during the second half of the work week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to top out in the mid/upper 80s north lower 90s over interior and southern portions of the forecast area. Expect very warm nights as well, potentially record warm, with lows 65 to 70. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... Except for a chance of MVFR vsbys/cigs in the SE including FAY 08z- 12z this morning, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least this afternoon across all central NC terminals, but with gradually increasing high and mid clouds. Starting after 21z, an upper level disturbance along with daytime heating will prompt isolated to scattered showers and a few storms pushing into the west (INT/GSO), with these chances lasting through the overnight hours, however VFR conditions will still be dominant. However, starting after 04z tonight, a backdoor front dropping into far N and NE sections will bring a good chance for IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys into northern areas, along and behind the front. As the backdoor front settles southward well into central NC overnight, sub-VFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread south through most of the area 06z-12z Sat, with scattered showers. Looking beyond 12z Sat, as the front slowly lifts back north and washes out, conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Sat from SE to NW, with the Triad (INT/GSO) remaining sub-VFR well into the afternoon. But the chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will be high, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, Sat through Mon, particularly each afternoon and evening, with locally gusty winds in and near storms, and a chance for patchy early-morning fog areawide. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield ####018006639#### FXUS61 KRLX 031043 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM Friday... Freshened up PoPs to account for isolated showers that are encroaching upon the western fringe of the CWA earlier than anticipated. No other changes have been made at this time. As of 220 AM Friday... Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air, transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front, should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during the day. Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as moderate instability develops within the warm and moist environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and storm activity within the CWA overnight. Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry conditions leading up to today. Tonight's temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the 50s to 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Active weather will span into the weekend as a cold front halts overhead and washes out. Warm and humid conditions festering over the area, coupled with the front and mid-level shortwave ripples, will yield showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Convection timing will be at its highest during peak heating hours in the afternoon, but retaining a slight chance for storms even beyond sunset late Saturday night. Upper level troughing progressing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday will contribute to renewed potential for showers and storms. Additional downpours will continue to chip away at flash flood guidance, and may begin to impose local water concerns. Antecedently dry soil conditions and blossoming vegetation should help mitigate widespread concern. More of the same on Monday, despite potential to see a brief lull in activity Sunday night, as additional support arrives from a southern stream disturbance. Daytime heating, albeit a few degrees cooler than previous few days, will once again promote increased potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially across the southern half of the forecast area and up along the spine of the Appalachians. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday... Unsettled weather prevails through much of the work week with daily chances of showers and storms. A progressive upper level pattern will continue to churn shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians during the extended period. The focus of precipitation falls over us during this period of time under the guise of a stalled frontal boundary overhead. Ample precipitable water values on the order of 1.5 to 1.8 inches nestled over the region will continue to promote heavy downpours with this activity, further aggravating the threat for flooding for midweek and beyond. 00Z GFS run continues to imply a tightened pressure gradient settling over the area as the upper level jet noses into the Great Lakes region. This may promote breezy to occasionally strong wind gusts for Wednesday and into the end of the valid forecast period. Other global models aren't as keen with the placement of the upper jet and such a tightened low level gradient. Temperatures rise back into the 80s down in the lowlands for Tuesday through Thursday, but possibly cooling off by the end of the work week behind a cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 640 AM Friday... Early morning fog will dissipate early in the TAF period, then showers and thunderstorms that are currently approaching from the west are expected to spread across the area as a front nears during the day. Activity should then be sustained into tonight due to a passing disturbance. VFR ceilings are expected to gradually descend to low-end VFR as the day progresses and then further degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight. Periodic restrictions to visibility will also be possible within any heavier showers or storms later today and tonight. 5-10kt southwest winds are expected much of the day, followed by light and variable winds for tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the forecast. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in showers/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB ####018006396#### FXUS61 KPHI 031044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 644 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into New England with onshore flow setting up. A series of cold fronts approaches for the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The marine stratus never quite made it to the coast and moved onshore. Satellite images indicate a disturbance, perhaps an area of NVA as indicated by the NAM, washing out the marine layer as it approaches the coast. Some patchy fog has developed, but that should dissipate over the next hour or so. The cold front has sagged south of Delmarva, and the cooler and drier airmass will also continue to sag south. Onshore flow should keep dew points up in the low to mid 50s along the coast and in the coastal plain. High pressure builds into New England. Onshore flow will result in a much cooler airmass spreading into the region. Highs will still be a few degrees above normal, but much colder compared to Thursday, topping off in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region, and in the upper 60s to low 70s for far western portions of the forecast area. For coastal areas, onshore flow will keep temperatures in the 50s. Low pressure approaches from the west tonight. Most of the region will remain dry as high pressure hangs tough along the coast, but some showers may move into far western portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Not the best weekend ahead weather-wise but not necessarily terrible either. A weakening cold front will approach on Saturday, with some showers moving through ahead of it. Best chance to see showers will be west of the I-95 corridor, but can't rule out some light rain across the area. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and cool with a steady onshore flow. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s. With the maritime airmass in place, not expecting much in terms of thunderstorms as it should remain rather stable. Showers become more widespread by Saturday Night through Sunday Night as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Highest PoPs are concentrated in the Sunday morning timeframe. Some elevated instability could move in for Sunday afternoon/evening but not expecting any severe weather, and just some rumbles of thunder mixed in with passing showers. The maritime airmass will continue to have a grip on the region, though flow turns a bit more southerly in southern Delmarva. The result will be another day in the upper 50s/low 60s for most, with upper 60s/70s in southern Delaware and along the southern Eastern Shore. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected for most of next week as a boundary stalls out over the region. Rain chances are in the forecast each day during the week as several waves of low pressure are expected to ride along the boundary. Each day won't be a washout by any means, and PoPs are generally around 20-40% Monday/Tuesday, with the highest coming in the afternoon. Not much instability will be present, with the threat of any thunderstorms/severe weather being low. Temperatures both days will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some 80s possible on Tuesday. The boundary looks to lift north by Tuesday in the form of a warm front, putting the region in the warm sector. Looking at a period of above normal temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday with upper 70s/low to mid 80s anticipated. A few shortwaves will move through, which will spark off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening both days. More instability will be present, so we will have to watch this window, though too early to tell if/how impactful any convection will be. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Fog and stratus never quite developed, so will carry VFR conditions for all terminals except for KACY, where MVFR/IFR CIGs are still expected to develop today. E winds 8 to 12 kt, but 10 to 15 kt with 18 to 23 kt gusts at KACY. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR for most of the night for most of the terminals, lowering to MVFR at KACY/KMIV late. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR restrictions possible later in the day especially at KRDG/KABE. Outlook... Saturday Night...Restrictions expected with steady rain moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible. Sunday...Restrictions expected with showers/low clouds moving through. CIGs as low as IFR possible. Sunday Night...Restrictions possible with 40-60% chance of showers and 15-25% chance of thunderstorms. Monday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period. && .MARINE... A tightening easterly pressure gradient will develop on the waters today, and E winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for most NJ and DE ocean waters. Seas will build to around 5 ft. Will go ahead and hoist a Small Craft Advisory for all ANZ451-455 from 8am to 4pm. Sub-SCA conditions for DE Bay today and tonight. Sub-SCA conditions for the ocean tonight. Patchy fog expected on the ocean waters today and tonight with 1 to 3 NM VSBYs. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS