####018003535#### FXUS63 KAPX 031050 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today. - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon. Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset. Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines. For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight. Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Period of low cigs expected this morning, along with widespread showers, as a cold front crosses the area. The rain will end from west to east today, beginning mid-morning, and cigs will improve shortly after. After an early mix of MVFR to IFR cigs, all sites will improve to VFR...MBL by late morning, APN by late afternoon. Winds become w to wnw and a touch gusty behind the front today. Lighter winds tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JZ ####018009820#### FXUS61 KAKQ 031050 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure still anchored over the Atlantic off the coast of the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is located just to the north of the local area. Aloft, an amplified ridge extends into Canada with its axis just to the west of the FA. Temps this morning will be fairly mild with temps remaining in the 60s for most places (upper 50s in the NW). The backdoor front will sag south today, creating non-diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. For most locations W of the bay, expect temps to quickly warm into the low 80s by mid- morning, while the Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore remain cool in the upper 50s-low 60s. Through the afternoon, cooler temps will spread inland. Mid-afternoon temps will be in the 50s on the Eastern Shore, 60s across the peninsulas and the SE coast, while the central and southern piedmont will be in the mid-upper 80s. Clouds will increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the piedmont this afternoon, but CAMs indicate isolated coverage. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday - Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday. Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95. The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast. Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday. - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week. By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM Friday... VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 12z TAF period. A backdoor cold front has pushed in over the Eastern Shore, turning winds to the NE. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far inland low CIGs will go, but SBY may see flight restrictions by mid-morning. As the front pushes farther south, winds will turn to the NE and become gusty. Flight restrictions (IFR CIGs) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front. -Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night. Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog. Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond. Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/MRD LONG TERM...AM/MRD AVIATION...AM/MAM MARINE...LKB/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018006419#### FXUS61 KILN 031051 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move east across the area later today and into tonight. This will bring showers and a chance for thunderstorms today into Saturday, along with some cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Embedded mid level energy in southwest flow aloft will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley region through this afternoon. This will be accompanied by a weak cold front that will push into our area from the west later today. Moist southwest flow ahead of this will allow for showers to overspread mainly our western areas through mid morning and then the remainder of our area heading into this afternoon. Instability will remain fairly marginal so will just allow for a chance of some embedded thunderstorms today. With some cooler air moving in from the west, highs today will range from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The mid level energy will push off to the east through tonight as the weak cold front gradually weakens as it moves across our eastern areas. As a result, expect an overall decreasing trend in pcpn from the west tonight with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southwest flow will persist aloft through the day on Saturday with some weak mid level energy again lifting northeast across the region. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with sbcapes climbing up to around 1000 J/KG or so through the afternoon. With forcing aloft fairly weak, will limit pops to mainly chance category across much of the area for Saturday. The exception may be across our east, closer to the washing out front, where will include some likely pops across at least our far east during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... While the forecast may seem a bit muddied with a potential of showers and thunderstorms through the period, there is good reasoning to have them there. First, overnight lows are only 5-10 degrees below normal. Normal high temperatures. A clear signal where temperatures across the region drop below 60 overnight doesn't seem to come about until Friday night (beyond this forecast). Thursday night looks to be within a few degrees of 60 across the CWA, but until then, 60-65 is expected. The warmest nights will be Tuesday and Wednesday where some locations to the southeast might only drop into the upper 60s. This prolonged period of overnight warmth leads to/stems from an abundance of moisture in the area. Couple this moisture with high temperatures generally running from the mid 70s to around 80 and forcing mechanisms at the surface or aloft at one time or another, and you just can't rule out shower and thunderstorm activity. More like summer, only without the blisteringly higher temperatures one might expect. During the period, Tuesday will see everyone within a few degrees of 80 but Wednesday will be the warmest with lower 80s expected, and some mid 80s possible in the southern CWA. Both high and low temperatures from the Euro ensembles show a fairly tight standard deviation of 2-3 through the entire forecast, meaning a higher confidence in narrowing the expected range in both high and low temps. Second, lifting mechanisms of one sort or another remain a larger than average threat to be over the Ohio Valley and CWA for this period. Saturday night will start with lingering storms that should be decaying after initiation from daytime heating. A cold front is pushing in overnight and while weakening, is still moving into a relatively moist environment and could propagate any lingering storms through the night. This front stretches and weakens on Sunday, but maintains a moisture boundary due to a strong high pressure center to the north. This could lead to showers over the southern CWA during the day and more overnight as the remnant boundary becomes more pronounced from w-e. Monday/Monday night keeps the boundary stretched through the CWA. It exits north-northeast on Tuesday and NBM pops given are much too high with likely in the west. A simple chance of showers/storms would be the better middle ground forecast. Now on Wednesday, warm sector showers/storms on southwest flow are more likely and could continue overnight. A surface low/front is progged on Thursday with the mean sw flow aloft not showing much change. Friday's potential of storms is focused on the potential of a surface low developing near/west of the CWA ahead of a l/w H5 trough, with the low dropping a front through the region. The cumulative pattern suggests potential rainfall/flooding issues either with individual MCS episodes or from repeated rounds of convection. This is as the upper ridge slowly flattens and low-mid level flow lines up wsw by mid week. Starting Friday, an effective frontal passage should begin to settle south of the area with cooler/drier conditions possible for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level disturbance will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley today into tonight as a weak cold moves into the area from the west. This will lead to occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily through today. Will generally cover this with a prevailing -shra, although there will likely be breaks in the showers at times today. Will keep prevailing conditions VFR, although some occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in some of the more significant showers. Will linger some VCSHs in the TAFs through this evening but we should see an overall decreasing trend in coverage from the west tonight. Some MVFR cigs and vsbys will then develop later tonight into Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR conditions are possible again Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL ####018005352#### FXUS62 KTAE 031051 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 651 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Onshore flow continues today and tonight as the Bermuda high remains parked off to the east. Mid to upper level riding is expected to weaken a bit and shift further south with the ridge axis closer to the FL Peninsula. This along with increasing moisture across the area will allow for a bit more coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show DCAPE near 800-900 J/kg this afternoon, so a few of the storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds the primary hazard. High temperatures today are forecast a tiny bit cooler than yesterday due to the increase in cloud cover and the shifting of the ridge axis to the south. Highs are still forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows overnight in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon as an H5 shortwave moves through the Southeast. A few showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze as it pushes inland. However, the best opportunity for rain will be closer to the shortwave in southwestern Georgia. Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday as the shortwave lifts out of the region. Highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s around the region both days with lows in the middle to upper 60s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon, mainly along the I-75 corridor, before ridging aloft takes over the rest of the work week. Surface high pressure situated between Bermuda and the Bahamas coupled with H85 temperatures climbing to between 18 to 20C will support highs in the lower to middle 90s by the middle of next week. An increase in low-level moisture will also push overnight lows from the middle 60s Monday and Tuesday night to the upper 60s to lower 70s, even away from the coast, by Wednesday night. While records are not explicitly forecast, one or two locations could flirt with their record highs Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A few spots of fog and low stratus across the area currently will lift to VFR by mid to late morning. A few showers and storms are possible later this afternoon and early evening, but overall coverage is expected to be fairly low. Another round of fog/low stratus will be possible later tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Warm and moist conditions will continue today and over the weekend with rain chances increasing on Saturday. A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and storms possible all day Saturday. Winds may fluctuate between southeast and southwest over the next several days. A seabreeze is likely to develop and move inland each afternoon. Very good to excellent dispersions are also likely each afternoon with very high mixing heights. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 The last of the Flood Warnings from the April 10/11th flood event will be cancelled sometime this morning as the Suwannee River at Manatee Springs drops below Minor Flood stage. Several sites along the Suwannee remain in Action Stage along with the Aucilla at Lamont and St Marks at Newport. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible the next couple of days and could lead to localized 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain. Outside of that, no flooding is anticipated at this time over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 68 87 66 / 20 10 60 20 Panama City 85 69 85 68 / 10 0 20 10 Dothan 89 68 88 66 / 20 10 50 20 Albany 90 68 87 65 / 30 20 70 30 Valdosta 89 68 85 66 / 30 20 70 20 Cross City 89 66 87 66 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 80 69 80 70 / 10 0 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese ####018008370#### FXUS61 KBOX 031051 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 651 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes today and Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with showers likely and cooler temperatures Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then brings dry and warm weather Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Unsettled weather is possible later Wednesday into Thursday, with the risk of showers but likely remaining mild. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 655 AM update... A blanket of low clouds across the region, with the exception being over western MA/CT, where breaks in the overcast are occurring per latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations. This low level moisture is trapped beneath subsidence inversion across the area, courtesy of 1020+ maritime high. However, strong May sunshine will slowly erode the clouds and give way to breaks of afternoon sunshine, especially mid to late afternoon. Seasonable temps but feeling cooler across eastern MA with maritime NE flow, capping highs in the 50s this afternoon, response to water temps only in the 40s. Also, low level NE jet currently yielding gusts up to 25 mph over Cape Cod and the Islands, will diminish this afternoon. Hence, less wind this afternoon than this morning. Previous forecast captures these details nicely, therefore no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Today A broad anticyclone centered to the north/northeast of southern New England takes control today. A steady northeast flow will advect a cooler air mass over southern New England this afternoon with 925 hPa temps dropping to 5C or lower. With diurnal mixing this will translate to surface temps in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Downsloping from easterly flow over The Worcester Hills will support warmer temperatures in the upper 60s in the CT River Valley. After a cloudy start, a mid-level ridge axis building in from the west will be accompanied by a much drier air mass that will allow some clearing my late morning/early afternoon. Still expect FEW to SCT diurnal clouds this afternoon, but there should be a good amount of sunshine as well. Overall a seasonable day in southern New England. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Tonight and Tomorrow High pressure supports dry/quiet weather across southern New England tonight. Winds become light and variable which should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling across the region, though there is a question as to how much cloud cover there will be and thus cooling potential. Decided to blend the NBM25th percentile with CONSMOS to yield low temps in the low to mid 40s which is near to slightly below normal for early May in southern New England. High pressure remains in control on Saturday, so we continue to expect dry/quiet weather. However, continued onshore flow will support cloudiness across the region. Very little change in the air mass for Saturday, so expect high temperatures similar to what should be observed Friday afternoon with cooler temps along the coast in the mid 50s and warmer temps across the interior and CT River Valley ranging from the low to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Cool but dry Saturday night into Sunday, then numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. * Dry & warm Monday afternoon into Tuesday * Showers possible late Wed/Wed night into Thursday. Synoptic Overview... Tranquil stretch of weather in response to east coast ridging/above normal heights much of this forecast period. A brief interruption to the pattern, as northern stream trough briefly erodes this ridge with a risk of showers later Sunday into Monday morning. Then dry post frontal NW flow returns later Monday and into Tue. Progressive pattern follows with ridge building back into the northeast, but may be accompanied by warm frontal showers later Wed/Thu. Temperatures... Cool maritime ridge Sat night into Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs 55-60. 850 mb ensemble temp anomalies peak 18z Monday over southeast MA, in the transition to post frontal. Thus, looking at a warm day (provided clouds & showers exit before the PM hours) with WNW flow combined with warm temps aloft coupled with downsloping winds. Hence, coastline warms up too, including Cape Cod and Islands. Also, dew pts in the 50s will provide mild/warm feel to the airmass. Not much of a drop off in temps in the post frontal airmass, thus, another warm day Tuesday with NW flow, warm temps aloft combined with downsloping NW winds. Likely not as warm Wed/Thu but probably above normal(60s). Precipitation... High amplitude, deep layer ridge with 1030 mb high from the maritimes into eastern MA, provides dry weather Sat night into Sunday morning. Then approaching trough provides cyclonic flow and increasing/above normal PWATs yield numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Ensembles offering likely probs (60- 70% for 0.25 inches of rainfall, with chance probs (30-40%) for up to 0.50 inches of rainfall. Timing for widespread showers, highest PWATs from 06z-12z Monday per ensembles. Post frontal with dry slot during Monday afternoon. Drier than normal PWATs linger into Tue, then becoming unsettled Wed/Thu with moisture plume advecting across the region (PWATs up to 200% of normal). Too far out in time for details, but looking at height anomalies from the ensembles, anomalous lows over Newfoundland and the Dakotas, may result in a slower ridge advecting across SNE mid of next week. Thus, high amplitude pattern may support dry weather lingering thru much of Wed, especially eastern MA/RI. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Through 12Z...High Confidence in trends, but lower confidence on exact timing of improving conditions. IFR/MVFR cigs this morning slowly improves to VFR this afternoon and persist into the evening push. Gusty NE winds up to 20 kt across Cape Cod and Islands at 11z, diminishes this afternoon. Earlier discussion below. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Tonight...High confidence VFR. Light and variable winds. Tomorrow...High confidence VFR. East winds from 5 to 10 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence KBDL TAF...High confidence Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: Chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Today through Tomorrow High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal waters through Saturday. Winds will prevail out of the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RM NEAR TERM...Nocera/RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...Nocera/RM MARINE...Nocera/RM ####018006249#### FXUS64 KHUN 031054 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 554 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mid-level ridge will continue to shift southeastward and off the Atlantic Coast today, enabling a light (10-20 knot) WSW flow regime aloft to develop across the TN Valley (between the ridge to our southeast and a broad mid/upper-level trough to our northwest that will extend southward into the northern Rockies/Plains). In the low-levels, light southerly flow currently exists across our region to the south of a subtle surface trough extending from central TX east-northeastward through the Arklatex region and into northwestern TN/southwestern KY. Although dewpoints have recovered into the l-m 60s in this regime, an even richer tropical airmass will likely remain confined to the south of a nearly stationary marine warm front immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast. The onset of deep-layer warm/moist advection (aided by a 20-30 knot SSW low-level jet) has resulted in a fairly widespread coverage of rain and embedded thunderstorms early this morning (particularly across northwest AL). Solutions from the 00Z CAMs are in general agreement that this axis of precipitation will continue to spread slowly eastward through the mid-morning hours, warranting high POPs region-wide through 14-15Z. After a temporary minima in the coverage of precipitation late this morning, additional but more scattered convection is expected to develop early this afternoon as the local airmass recovers in the wake of morning rainfall. Highs will not be quite as warm today (u70s-l80s) due to the impact of morning clouds and precip, but this should still be sufficient to produce CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, perhaps a bit higher in the west and a bit lower in the east (based on the lastest HREF). However, given weak deep-layer flow/shear, storms will be unorganized, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary impacts due to PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6 inch range. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Fairly high POPs will remain warranted across the region overnight, as broad scale vertical motions will increase slightly with the passage of a weak mid-level shortwave trough to our northwest. The risk for thunderstorms will remain highest this evening (prior to the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle), with a gradual transition to light rain expected by early Saturday morning. Due to the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer and only light southerly winds, patchy fog will be possible for many locations as well. Present indications are that the general synoptic pattern across our region will change very little on either Saturday or Sunday, although with indications of low-amplitude shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday (in the wake of the shortwave trough), coverage of afternoon showers and storms will likely be somewhat lower compared to today. By late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, the marine warm front (discussed in the near term section) will begin to lift northeastward through the CWFA as a strong upper low tracking into the central Rockies induces surface pressure falls across the high Plains of eastern CO/WY. This will likely support a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Highs will be in the u70s-l80s once again tomorrow, before warming into the l-m 80s Sunday, and lows should remain in the l-m 60s through Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday. Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Pockets of rain and embedded TSRA will continue to spread eastward across the TN Valley this morning, warranting TEMPO groups at both terminals thru 15Z. After a brief break in precipitation late this morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon within the warm and increasingly humid airmass across the local area. PROB30 groups have been included for this activity btwn 20-02Z, as this is the timeframe when AWWs for lightning may be required. Although the risk for convection will gradually diminish this evening, light rain and fog may persist across portions of the area thru the end of the TAF period. Prevailing sfc winds will remain from the SSW at speeds of 5-10 knots. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...70/DD