####018004621#### FXUS63 KSGF 031107 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Patchy fog/drizzle has set in around the area this morning. Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should help to clear out the fog/drizzle and improve visibilities as it continues to push south. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after the cold front moves through. This is due to the mid-level southwesterly flow that will help us stay warm today. Winds turn to the north just for a few hours this morning before returning back to the southeast by late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves over us. Another weak shortwave moves through southern Missouri this afternoon and rain chances return. Right now, only have a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms with the best chances occurring over southeast Missouri. Storms are expected to be sub-severe today. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM. As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours. Tomorrow, we are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, and therefore, will be a better set up than today. Storms may become severe and could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Right now, have rain lingering through Saturday night into Sunday morning even after the front has passed through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Thursday. The entire area is in a general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday. Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring shower and thunderstorms to the area. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time. By Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC has consistently put our western counties in KS in an area of 15% chance for severe weather for Monday. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of severe storms. SPC has put eastern/southeastern Missouri in a 15% chance for severe weather for Tuesday. Lastly, CSU/CIPS guidance is showing the potential for severe weather all the way through Thursday of next week. Next week could be another busy week, stay tuned for further forecast updates. As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 LIFR/IFR ceilings are ongoing this morning until lowered visibilities from fog/drizzle improves. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for today. Ceilings are expected to improve through the morning and VFR is forecast to return by this afternoon. Winds start out northerly for this morning, but turn southeasterly later this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria ####018004694#### FXUS63 KEAX 031107 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 607 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Monday evening and Monday night. Strong to severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a 500 mb low and associated troughing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Missouri and Kansas remain generally within west southwesterly flow aloft south of the primary 500 mb jet streak rounding the base of the northern stream trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary that was associated with yesterday's convection continues to exit to the east, with surface high pressure building in behind it. Current conditions across the county warning area are defined by temperatures primarily in the 50s with light northerly winds. It should be a relatively pleasant day today with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s with lower humidity and an easterly breeze. By tonight, a quick moving shortwave trough descends out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains, linking up with the aforementioned mid level low and troughing already present over the Upper Midwest, and sends another cold front toward the region. Convection allowing models (CAMs) suggest that convection should initiate along and ahead of the front over central Nebraska by this evening, with a line or broken line of showers and storms entering into NW Missouri and NE Kansas by around 3 to 4 am tomorrow morning. These storms should continue to move west to east with the front through the morning hours, exiting the region to the east by noon. The SPC HREF suggests up to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with along with around 30 to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, so it is possible that a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. SPC concurs with this, as they have the region highlighted within a marginal risk for severe storms for tonight into Saturday morning's convective activity. Additionally, these storms could bring another 0.5 to 0.75" of rain to the region, with locally higher amounts possible. The precise timing of the cold front will largely impact Saturday's high temperatures. As of now, the forecast highs range from as cold as the mid 60s over NW Missouri to as warm as the mid 70s toward mid Missouri where the cold front is progged to arrive later in the day. Cooler temperatures and some cloud cover should linger into Sunday. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible on Sunday, primarily south of Interstate 70, as a subtle shortwave trough develops over the Southern Plains and a stationary boundary near the MO/AR border begins to lift northward as a warm front. As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted. Differences continue with how the GFS and ECMWF handle the system, which will impact overall storm timing and specific severe weather hazards, but showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday evening/night, with strong to severe thunderstorms in play given mid 60s dewpoints, moderate instability, and sufficient deep layer shear. Additionally, locally moderate rainfall will once again be possible, and with the antecedent wet conditions, this could yield more flash and river flooding concerns. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation lingers Tuesday into Thursday as models suggest a closed mid level low remaining over the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow aloft over Missouri and Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees for Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Patchy fog across northern Missouri through 14Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions throughout the day with easterly winds prevailing. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach after 09Z. Have added mention at KSTJ terminal after 10Z, but could be right at 12Z Saturday across the metro or slightly later. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...BT ####018004133#### FXUS63 KTOP 031109 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 609 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of thunderstorms moves in from the west around/after midnight tonight, with potential for a few strong to severe storms. - Greater potential for severe weather Monday as a strong upper trough approaches. - Temperatures remain near to a bit above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 - Line of thunderstorms moves in from the west around/after midnight tonight, with potential for a few strong/severe storms. - Next chance for severe weather arrives Monday as a strong upper trough approaches. - Temperatures remain near to a bit above average. A brief break in rain chances this morning, as high pressure has moved in across the region. Light winds and clear skies, along with lingering moisture from our recent rain, have allowed for some patchy fog to develop in lower lying areas. This will linger until an hour or two after sunrise when deeper mixing occurs. The daytime hours will remain dry and mostly sunny, with temperatures warming into the 70s. Can't completely rule out an evening storm north of I- 70 as CIN lowers with increasing moisture/heating, but the better storm chances arrive later overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. There is increasing confidence that a line of storms will initially be ongoing across northwestern Kansas, moving into north- central Kansas after midnight. Given around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The linear storm mode will keep damaging winds as the primary severe threat, with some isolated quarter size hail also possible. CIN increases with time and eastward extent, so expecting a gradual decrease in severe probabilities while the line moves across northeast and east-central Kansas. The front then moves east of the area by late morning Saturday. Just a few lingering shower chances by Saturday afternoon as cooler and drier air is advected southward. More rain chances arrive Sunday with a weak shortwave passing just to our south. Instability remains very limited so not expecting much if any severe weather. Severe weather chances significantly increase for Monday as a deep upper low becomes negatively tilted as it ejects eastward over the central Plains. Guidance is in good agreement in 65-68 degree dewpoints ahead of the dryline/cold front, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. One possible fly in the ointment would be if the strong upper forcing allows morning or early afternoon convection to develop and decrease instability for the afternoon. But otherwise, wind profiles strongly support supercells. These would initially develop off the dryline across central Kansas during the afternoon, moving northeast during the evening, and would be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Several days to allow the details to come into place, but certainly a day to watch. Tuesday into Wednesday, the deep upper trough becomes centered over the Northern Plains, with several embedded shortwaves moving around its southern periphery. By this point, roughly 80% of ensemble guidance keeps the now quasi-stationary front southeast of the area. This would also keep severe weather chances southeast of our area, with temperatures staying near to slightly above average. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Shallow patchy fog has developed over the past couple hours, and will last for another hour or two before clearing after sunrise. Southeast winds increase to 10-12 kts by late morning. Cold front along with scattered thunderstorms and potentially IFR/MVFR ceilings arrives late tonight, around 09z at KMHK and 11z at KTOP/KFOE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese ####018007717#### FXUS63 KLSX 031109 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 609 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will continue this weekend and through much of next week, bringing multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area. - This pattern will lead to a chance of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, with additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances next week. However, details pertaining to any severe thunderstorm threat next week are unclear at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Night) Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows a trough over the western CONUS with a shortwave moving through the Upper-Midwest and Northern Plains. At the surface, a low is in a similar location, with its cold front seen in surface observations moving into northeastern and central Missouri. Forcing from the front and a weak shortwave aloft continue to drive scattered showers across the area. As the shortwave progresses eastward and the front exits the area later this morning, rain chances will wind down and end west to east. Despite easterly-northeasterly winds behind the front today as high pressure settles into the Midwest, mid- to upper-level flow from the south-southwest will reduce the potency of this post-frontal airmass and keep temperatures at to just above climatological normals. Despite the front clearing the CWA, it will not have scrubbed southern portions the area of boundary layer moisture completely. As a weak shortwave moves through the Mid-South during peak heating this afternoon, this low-level moisture will yield upwards of around 1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE that will lead to isolated thunderstorm development mainly over far southeastern Missouri. Thunderstorms are not expected to be strong, as weak 0-6km bulk shear of roughly 15-20 kts will produce updrafts that are weaker and short-lived. Convection will dissipate during the early evening as the sun begins to set and instability wanes. Tonight, the aforementioned surface high will move eastward and return southerly low-level flow to the area. In turn, low-level moisture will begin advecting into the CWA ahead of a cold front moving across the Great Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. Convection associated with the front will approach the CWA early tomorrow morning, but will be in the process of decaying. So, while I can't rule out very isolated damaging wind gusts across northeastern Missouri, strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday morning are unlikely. The better chance for severe weather comes Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves into the area and a subtle shortwave travels overhead. Then, guidance consensus is that roughly 1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be present among 25-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected along and ahead of the front in this environment, leading to an chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. The amount of instability is conditional on how much clearing of convective debris from the early morning storms can occur prior to peak heating. If clouds stay thicker and more widespread, we could see less instability and weaker storms. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 At the start of the extended period, guidance consensus is that southwesterly flow aloft will still be in place over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters show a shortwave within this flow moving out of the Southern Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley through the day on Sunday and into Monday, though, there remain differences in the phasing of this feature. A quicker solution would lead to a faster surface low and rain chances during Sunday afternoon mainly along and south of I-70, while a slower solution would lead to much of Sunday being dry across the area with rain moving in during the overnight hours. Regardless, guidance consensus is that the surface low will weaken as a warm front stalls somewhere across the Midwest. As we get into early next week, confidence in the evolution of the upper-level pattern and thusly local surface conditions decreases. In general, a trough will deepen over the western CONUS as a shortwave swings through the Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest. In turn, a surface low will follow a similar trajectory and occlude as it swings a cold front through the Great Plains and toward the Middle Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday. Guidance differs on the progression of this front through the region, with some stalling it west of the CWA while others have it clearing the CWA. However, if the latter solution materializes, the front will quickly lift northward as a warm front for Wednesday. Narrow temperature spread among ensemble guidance for Wednesday showing temperatures rising compared to Tuesday provides high confidence that in some way, the CWA will be in the warm sector on Wednesday as the western trough reloads. Additional shortwaves will round the trough as it begins to edge eastward, sending another surface low through the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. This low will swing a cold front through the CWA, with a majority of guidance having it clear the CWA. Through this stretch (Monday-Wednesday), the CWA at times will be in the warm sector multiple times beneath southwesterly flow and in proximity to a warm and/or cold front. This does set the stage for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, and severe probability guidance from Colorado State University shows portions of the area with heightened probability through these days. However, severe thunderstorm potential will hinge on the location and timing of the fronts - something that is uncertain at this lead time. As a result of the cold front passing through the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday, ensemble consensus is that temperatures will cool by the end of the week into next weekend as the trough continues eastward and northwesterly flow aloft sets up over the Midwest. By how much temperatures will cool is uncertain, however, as temperatures range by about 10 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentile. Confidence is high in temperatures being at or below climatology given the 75th percentile hovering around seasonal normals. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain has departed the local terminals, leaving ample low-level moisture in its place for low stratus development. This stratus has begun breaking up, cuasing drastic changes in ceilings/flight rules. These rapid changes are expected to continue through the morning at KCOU, KJEF, KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS until the stratus is able to break up more and increase in height. The going forecast leans more pessimistic with ceiling height, and I can't rule out that ceilings improve faster than currently forecast. After ceilings improve, dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018007081#### FXUS62 KMHX 031110 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 0400 Friday...Fog that developed overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off. Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow). Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/... As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 0400 Friday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt. Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB