####018005233#### FXUS64 KAMA 031115 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds should dissipate from west to east today. As the low clouds give way to sunshine, instability will increase. A minor upper level short wave may also move across the Panhandles during afternoon heating. Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms may form given the added instability, lift, and moisture. A line of better organized thunderstorms is expected to move through the Panhandles overnight along a cold front. Models are in disagreement on just how widespread the thunderstorms will be overnight. There are a few models that believe that the line of storms will produce an outflow just as it moves into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This outflow would then move out ahead of the storms effectively cutting off the inflow into the storms and causing them to weaken. At any rate, there could be some severe storms both today and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. But certainly can not rule out a tornado. On Saturday and Saturday night, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with upslope flow behind the front and an upper level disturbance. The atmosphere may have to have time to recover from any storms that move through tonight, so the better chance of rain may come Saturday night. Highs today are expected to be in the 70's with a few 80's in the west. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60's to lower 70's. && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday and Monday look to be the more impactful days of the long term forecast. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue off and on throughout the day on Sunday. The next upper level system looks to remain off to the north on Monday and the return of strong west winds will bring fire weather concerns. The rest of next work week looks to feature near to above average temperatures and dry conditions. A shortwave trough will continue moving across the region on Sunday and should be east of the CWA by Sunday evening. The lift provided by the wave should aid in developing scattered showers and storms on Sunday. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east during the afternoon hours and highs should be around average on Sunday. The next H500 trough will be stronger but looks to remain north of the area. The base of the trough looks to move over portions of southeast Colorado into western Kansas. This would leave most of the Panhandles on the dry and windy side. The only exception may be the far east which could have a few showers or storms develop later in the day. Gusty west winds are likely on Monday and dry air at the surface will lead to fire weather conditions for areas that have not received rainfall to aid in greening up. Temperatures should also increase into the upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. Mainly zonal flow looks to prevail Tuesday through the remainder of the extended forecast. Breezy winds are possible each of the days along with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Model guidance hints that a cold front may move across the region late next week which could bring cooler temperatures to the area. Muscha && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR and MVFR conditions will improve into the VFR range this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but the chances of any of these storms affecting a TAF site are low, so have not mentioned them. A cold front moves through late in this forecast. Conditions are expected to become MVFR behind the front. Some thunderstorms may affect the GUY TAF site late in this forecast with the front, but confidence in a storm affecting the TAF site is low, so will not mention them at this point. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 51 68 51 / 30 40 40 70 Beaver OK 79 49 67 48 / 20 80 20 40 Boise City OK 75 43 66 45 / 30 40 10 30 Borger TX 78 52 71 53 / 20 50 30 60 Boys Ranch TX 78 50 70 51 / 30 40 20 60 Canyon TX 74 51 68 51 / 30 40 40 70 Clarendon TX 72 54 69 54 / 40 40 60 80 Dalhart TX 75 44 67 46 / 20 40 10 40 Guymon OK 76 46 67 46 / 20 70 10 40 Hereford TX 79 52 71 51 / 30 30 40 70 Lipscomb TX 78 52 67 51 / 20 70 40 60 Pampa TX 74 53 68 52 / 20 50 40 60 Shamrock TX 75 55 70 54 / 40 50 70 80 Wellington TX 76 55 72 54 / 40 70 70 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...15 ####018005324#### FXUS61 KCTP 031119 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 719 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Not as warm but pleasant end to the week with increasing clouds -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sunshine to start today will be followed by increasing clouds into tonight. High pressure channeling down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx over the majority of the CWA (eastern 2/3) through 00Z Sat with max POPs to the west of the US219 corridor. This area should be in the warm sector where the most unstable air will reside. A couple of locally heavy t-storm downpours could produce spot amounts >1" on the west aspect of the Allegheny Plateau near the edge of higher pwat air surging in from the upper OH Valley. The WPC D1 ERO covers this area, with the greatest threat just outside of our CWA (over PBZ) based on the latest 03/06Z HREF. The 24hr maxTchange will be considerably cooler over the central and southeastern ridge/valley region this afternoon with fcst highs giving back 7-15 degrees from yesterdays record challenging to record breaking temps. Shower activity should eventually expand west to east through tonight as an increasingly moist east/southeast flow brings widespread low clouds and perhaps some fog/mist on the ridgetops. Still downplaying non-severe t-storm potential given increasing low level stability/CAD pattern setup and lack of MUCAPE. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM. No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers. Rain/showers continue through Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA. Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s. With several chances for rain next week along with persistent mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally, there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into this evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%). An area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate- MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. The threat for MVFR cigs then increases substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV. Conds will continue to deteriorate Fri night into early Sat morning as southeast onshore flow advects cooler, moist air from the North Atlantic. IFR cigs are likely (60 percent chance or higher) for most TAF sites by 12z Sat, with the exception of IPT. Light surface winds will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon. Southeast flow will continue into Saturday. Outlook... Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA. Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CLIMATE... Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018 *Official report from State College will be available Friday morning. May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff AVIATION...Jurewicz/Colbert CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff ####018005638#### FXUS62 KJAX 031119 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 719 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Quick update to add portions of inland SE GA to a Dense Fog Advisory through 9am, due to fog spreading inland and thickening around sunrise. Patchy dense fog across inland NE FL covered with SPS at this time through 9am. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the next couple of hours the main concern will be localized fog. Dense fog cannot be entirely ruled out but have left it out of the forecast at the moment with generally low confidence (< 10% chance) of visibility lowering less than 1/4 mile. Any fog that does occur should lift and disperse by 9 AM or earlier. Stagnant pattern remains in place again today, featuring a stubborn surface high and supporting ridging aloft. Overall the low level pattern will stay consistent but an upper shortwave aloft will shove ridging aloft eastward late this evening and overnight. Strong subsidence and dry air should cap much of the convective attempts along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Enhanced moisture entering from the west in combination with an Atlantic/Gulf sea breeze interaction may spark isolated to widely scattered storms well inland, near and likely west of the I-75 corridor. Instability is still on the marginal side (only progged to be around 800-1200 J/kg), thus updrafts should be fairly weak in nature and severe weather is unlikely. Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will slowly propagate across the region resulting in increasing instability with a couple degrees of cooling aloft. This should be supportive of showers overnight mainly north of I-10 and a few elevated t-storms are also feasible through the early morning hours Saturday. Under influence of ridging aloft another seasonably warm day is on tap this afternoon with inland locations making another push toward 90F while coastal spots are cooled by the onshore flow with readings registering in the mid/upper 80s. Following the warm afternoon, temps will be mild, reading in the mid/upper 60s. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night) Showers and storms are expected this weekend as a series of short waves pass over the region with sea-breeze-driven storm developments becoming more widespread with diurnal heating. Mild easterly-southeasterly winds will persist through the period with the Atlantic afternoon sea breeze winds pushing inland. High temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. Patchy fog potential will exist each morning, especially in localized areas where heavy rain occurs with preceding afternoon convection. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Shortwave impulses continue to lift across the region through Monday with shower and storm developments becoming more inhibited as the week progresses due to the increased influence of upper ridging and associated subsidence extending over Florida and Georgia. Amid the stout upper ridge, winds turn offshore and enhance mixing which will boost high temperatures toward record levels as the week progresses; readings are forecast to be in the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Brief LIFR CIGS/VSBYS this morning at SSI/CRG/VQQ will become VFR by 13Z, then sea breeze from the East Coast will push inland through the day with SCT Cu field, but likely not enough moisture to support any rain chances higher than 20% at the TAF sites at this time, but will continue to monitor. Band of high clouds will overspread the TAF sites this afternoon above the local Cu field and will continue through tonight with winds becoming light after sunset. Have placed the usual MVFR fog at VQQ after 07Z. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 67 84 65 / 20 30 70 30 SSI 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 30 20 JAX 88 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20 SGJ 85 67 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 89 64 89 65 / 10 10 50 20 OCF 90 65 89 66 / 10 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-165-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$