####018005557#### FXUS63 KDLH 031130 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of Dense Fog expected early this morning around Lake Superior, including around the Twin Ports. - Widespread rain arrives this evening and will persist into Saturday. Thunderstorms are unlikely with this system. - Additional chances for rain arrive early to mid next week, with a high potential for widespread soaking rainfall. Thunderstorms will be more likely with the system next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Areas of dense fog have developed this morning in the wake of an occluded frontal passage. This fog is a result of a combination of low to near-zero dewpoint depressions, relatively light winds, and low-level moisture lingering from rain showers last evening. Visibility of one quarter of a mile or less has been observed early this morning, mainly in areas adjacent to Lake Superior and especially around the Twin Ports. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 8 AM CDT today for this dense fog. Expect fog to dissipate shortly after sunrise as diurnal heating begins and southwest winds increase from a tightening pressure gradient. Once the fog dissipates, much of today will be quiet with mostly sunny skies. Southwest winds will be breezy today due to a tightening pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Ontario and high pressure over Michigan's Lower Peninsula. A shortwave will be propagating into the upper Great Plains this evening, reaching the CWA by Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight and continue into Saturday as southwest winds advect moisture into the CWA. Dynamic forcing will be favorable within the baroclinic zone of this shortwave, with strong FGEN expected at 850mb. CAMs are in solid agreement that a southwest to northeast oriented band of rain will develop, with highest QPF amounts of 0.3-0.45" very likely (70% chance) to occur along a line from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports and north to the northern end of the Gunflint Trail. A rumble of thunder is possible from embedded thunderstorms this evening into tonight, but the potential is low (<15% chance) due to limited instability. Showers will be tapering off Saturday afternoon as the shortwave trough axis swings through the region. High pressure developing behind this shortwave will bring mostly sunny skies to the area on Sunday with comfortable high temps in the 60s. Dry conditions will linger into Monday before the next chance for rain arrives Monday night as a negatively-tilted trough enters the upper Midwest. Precip onset timing is still uncertain with this early week system, as run- to-run model variations have been trending later in recent runs of the global deterministic models. Despite timing differences, confidence is high (80% chance) that large portions of the CWA will receive a good soaking rain on Tuesday into Wednesday. Global ensemble total QPF means are around 0.5-1.5", with individual members showing the potential for locally higher rainfall amounts. Severe weather and localized flash flooding potential will need to be monitored as we get closer to early next week. At this time, it's still too uncertain for specifics on impacts and exact location. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering fog from last night is expected to dissipate within the next couple hours as daytime heating occurs and southwest winds increase. Conditions for INL this morning will briefly be MVFR as a low pressure center moves through, bringing light rain showers. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today into tonight. Widespread rain will be arriving this evening into tonight from southwest to northeast across the region. This will result in deteriorating flight category as lower cigs move in and visibility reduces from rain and fog. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued this morning for all nearshore waters of western Lake Superior until 8 AM CDT. Observations show that visibility of 1 NM or less will be possible until southwest winds increase and daytime heating begins. Expect winds to turn southwesterly today and become strong up to 25 knots through the day, mainly along the North Shore and for South Shore Waters around and west of the Apostle Islands archipelago. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued today for most nearshore waters, excluding Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Expect breezy southwest winds to ease this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021- 037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Unruh AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...Unruh ####018010794#### FXUS64 KMAF 031130 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active period is ahead for the short term, with severe thunderstorms possible both today and Saturday. Early this morning, winds are generally light and variable, thanks to a combination of a weak cold front sagging across the Permian Basin and the retreating dryline. Dewpoints across the Permian Basin and into Lea County have recovered into the 50s and even lower 60s, with lows not expected to drop much below where they area now, in the upper 50s to upper 60s for many. Expansive low clouds have already worked their way northwestward into portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and are progged to expand across the central and eastern Permian Basin through daybreak. However, clearing skies are expected by mid-morning, allowing for plenty of time for warming and subsequent destabilization ahead of convective development this afternoon. As southwesterly winds develop this afternoon, the dryline will mix eastward from its morning position west of the Pecos River, and sharpen up from the Permian Basin southward across the Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. The aforementioned cold front this morning will wash out, mixing northward this afternoon as southerly flow increases across the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs today top out in the middle 80s to lower 90s for most, with 100s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Given elevated moisture to the east of the dryline, diurnal destabilization will result in CAPE values in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg (and possibly up to nearly 4000 J/kg). Lapse rates around 8 degC/km will support large to very large hail, with veering flow and increasing low- level shear through the late afternoon and early evening lending to a non-zero tornado threat. Initiation is progged to occur over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos south toward the Rio Grande by mid-afternoon, with storms generally moving eastward and gradually congealing into outflow-dominated clusters by the evening. A bulk of the activity should be east of our area by mid-evening, though a few lingering non-severe storms may be possible over northern portions of the area overnight as the dryline retreats, in closer proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary. The low-level jet will keep winds and moisture elevated tonight, allowing the dryline to once again retreat to the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas. In a change from today, convective initiation is expected earlier in the day on Saturday as the aforementioned front surges southward coincident with a surface trough that develops immediately to the lee of the higher terrain. Thus, precipitation chances as well as potential for strong to severe storms encompass much of the area, with particular focus across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos where the greatest potential (40%-70%) for severe storms exists along the eastward moving dryline and southward moving cold front. Shear will be notably stronger on Saturday, around 35-45kt, and moderate to strong instability will yield mainly an initial supercellular storm mode, with very large hail and damaging winds the primary concerns, along with locally heavy rainfall given precipitable water values increasing to 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal by late afternoon and early evening, per NAEFS ensemble data. Storms are progged to linger into the evening, and aside from the storm potential, the cold front will also yield cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 80s to lower 90s along and south/west of the Pecos (hotter along the Rio Grande), with 70s encroaching over the northern tier of the forecast area where the front will arrive prior to peak heating. JP && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances will continue Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon before tapering off as the southern stream short wave trough and upper low move east of the area by then. Potential for strong to severe storms continues Saturday night for eastern portions of the area, with the threat for flooding rains, damaging winds, and large hail. Widespread clouds and rain chances Saturday night will keep lows mild and slightly above normal in the 60s for most aside from 50s in higher elevations and northern portions of the SE NM plains. Highest rainfall amounts are likely east of the Pecos River, especially east of the Midland-Odessa area over the eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains, where maximum rainfall totals at the end of this rain event are forecast to range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches. As the upper low responsible for this weekend's rain moves east and takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the central Great Plains, increasing quasi-zonal flow will push the dryline that has been present over much of the central Permian Basin the past few days well to the east of the area. Accompanying this dryline passage beginning Monday afternoon will be increasing southwesterly winds, clearer skies, and a warming trend Monday into Thursday as subtle mid-level ridging also builds in. No rain is expected for the rest of the long term until at least Friday. A cold front will move in from the north Thursday, with cooler temperatures expected to close out next week. Highs will be below normal Sunday due to lingering cloud and rain chances, with widespread low to mid 80s and 90s confined to parts of the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande valleys. Monday through Thursday will see highs above normal with widespread upper 80s and 90s, and reaching triple digit readings near the Rio Grande. Highs Friday will be near to below average following the passage of a cold front, with mainly 80s and higher readings in the 90s confined to the Trans Pecos, Terrell County, and along the Rio Grande in the valleys. Lows will be above normal for early May throughout the long term with widespread 60s, aside from 50s in higher elevations and northern portions of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin, each night from Saturday night into Thursday night. Lows Friday night will be closer to normal and feature 50s for most places north and east of the Pecos River, most of the SE NM plains and higher elevations across West Texas, and 60s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Winds have become light and somewhat variable this morning, but will settle out of the S/SE, becoming gusty during the afternoon. Gusts to 20-25kt are expected, with gusts sticking around into the evening for MAF/INK/FST in response to the nocturnal low-level jet. MVFR ceilings are slowly expanding across the Permian Basin, and could result in brief MVFR conditions at MAF through around 15Z. Have handled MAF with a TEMPO, and will monitor trends and amend if needed elsewhere. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. This afternoon into this evening, thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the 21Z-02Z time frame for MAF/FST, but will defer to later issuances for potential TS mention. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ERCs 90th percentile or higher over most of Eddy County and southwest of the Pecos River will result in critically dry fuels fuels. This afternoon, RFTIs of 3-5 present from Sacramento Foothills into Chaves, Eddy, and Lea Counties in Southeast New Mexico into the Guadalupe Mountains and eastern Culberson County, along with min RH from 6 to 10 percent and highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal for this time of year in the upper 80s and lower 90s, have prompted a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement to be issued for these regions from this afternoon through this evening. Rain east of the Pecos River and lack of gusty winds likely constrain fire weather risk Saturday into Sunday. However, fire weather risk increases again Monday afternoon and continues into next Thursday as near zero rain chances are present for much of the area, dewpoints decrease over much of the area, widespread min critical RH develops each afternoon Monday into Thursday, and gusty southwesterly winds develop over much of the SE NM plains into the mountains and western Permian Basin in West Texas each afternoon from Monday into Thursday. This will all contribute to widespread RFTIs in the 3-6 range west and southwest of the Pecos River Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons. In addition to all of this, highs and lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal and mainly in the 90s and 60s, respectively, as well as poor overnight recovery over much of the area from Monday into Thursday morning, will dry out fuels even more. Depending on extent and amount of rainfall today into Sunday, eastward extent of fire weather risk is still uncertain at this time. Still, near critical fire weather conditions are likely today and this weekend over southwesternmost Eddy County and West Texas, and critical fire weather conditions Monday into Thursday next week expected over the SE NM plains, much of the area southwest of the Pecos River and west of a line from Gaines County into central Pecos County into western Terrell County, each afternoon from Monday into Thursday. Behind a cold front moving in from the north at the end of next week, increased dewpoints, better overnight recovery Friday morning, and decreasing eastward extent of min critical RH all yield a decrease in fire risk for the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 88 63 79 60 / 40 40 80 80 Carlsbad 92 60 84 58 / 0 10 20 50 Dryden 92 68 85 67 / 20 10 30 50 Fort Stockton 92 66 89 63 / 30 20 50 60 Guadalupe Pass 83 59 79 57 / 0 0 10 30 Hobbs 89 59 79 56 / 10 10 50 60 Marfa 87 54 89 52 / 10 0 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 90 63 81 60 / 30 30 60 80 Odessa 90 64 82 62 / 30 30 60 80 Wink 93 66 87 62 / 10 10 40 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84 ####018003561#### FXUS64 KMEG 031132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS's are producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800 J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible this afternoon. Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined with sufficient instability may result the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday due to a lack of model consensus this morning. Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will likely be common across the terminals through the at least 18z. Some IFR ceilings may mix at times for a few hours this morning at MEM/MKL/JBR. Confidence is low in how convection will redevelop later today so have included VCTS remarks for now but may need to adjust forecast once trends become more clear. Low clouds may be more prevalent towards TUP tonight after 06z and have included MVFR ceilings for now. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...TAB ####018004751#### FXUS64 KCRP 031134 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 634 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: - There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HREF mean surface based CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result in an environment favorable for organized deep convection. Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear will support supercells that will move east to southeast through the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Finally, the 00Z HREF guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3 inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5 inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash flooding this evening. The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: - Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week. A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day. That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday. Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue along with light rain showers at ALI/CRP/VCT over the next 2-3 hours before improving to prevailing MVFR by mid-morning. Ceilings are expected to continue to improve to VFR at most TAF sites for a few hours late this afternoon before MVFR/IFR ceilings build back into the region this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Sierra Madres late this afternoon and move to the east/southeast through the evening hours. The most likely location to see operational impacts will be KLRD where a PROB30 was introduced to this TAF package from 00Z-06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 76 87 75 / 20 10 0 10 Victoria 85 73 87 73 / 40 10 0 10 Laredo 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 20 Alice 89 74 90 74 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 83 75 85 75 / 20 10 0 10 Cotulla 94 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 30 Kingsville 87 76 88 74 / 20 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 84 76 85 77 / 20 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...TWH/91