####018004568#### FXUS62 KMFL 031135 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 735 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo. Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass, which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of SoFlo. The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous days. Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the west coast of SoFlo. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon. Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as the easterly flow push them inland. Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period although MVFR cigs are possible if a shower directly impacts a terminal. Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts range out of the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 73 84 74 / 20 20 30 10 West Kendall 86 70 86 71 / 20 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 20 20 30 10 Homestead 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 82 74 / 20 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 74 / 20 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 73 / 20 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 72 / 20 20 30 10 Boca Raton 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 30 20 Naples 89 70 88 71 / 10 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...Hadi ####018004522#### FXUS63 KOAX 031135 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 635 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog this morning for much of southwest Iowa and parts of southeast Nebraska is expected to clear around or shortly after 8 AM. - Thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours south of a line from Columbus to Shelby with a 5 to 10% chance of damaging hail and wind. - There is another chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today into Tonight: Water vapor imagery this morning shows a broad trough over the northwest quadrant of the CONUS while a handful of storm clusters travel eastward underneath the southwesterly flow from Texas to the northeastern US. A recent surface map shows the main surface low of the mature cyclone centered over far northwestern Minnesota with its main influence on the local area being a weak ridge of high pressure allowing surface temperatures to cool efficiently and for calm winds, resulting in areas of fog in southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. Shortly after sunrise, expect fog to dissipate and for winds to reestablish out of the southeast and increase in speed, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon hours. Highs are expected to climb into the low-to-mid 70s, with an approaching cold front expected to bring our next chance of storms late this evening. By the early evening hours, short-term models are in good agreement that convection will organize along a cold front extending from just southeast of the Nebraska Panhandle northeastward into north-central Nebraska. These storms along the cold front are expected to continue eastward in a QLCS form, passing through the forecast area from 9 PM to 6 AM. With 30 to 40 kt wind shear values expected alongside sufficient ML and MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg in the pre-frontal region, portions of these storm will have the potential to be strong to severe. The timing of storm arrival will oppose storm potential, with nocturnal stability seeming to limit CAM-forecasted wind gust. Nonetheless, steeper lapse rates near the KS/NE border and enhanced surface moisture will give southeast Nebraska the best shot at seeing damaging hail and winds. A lower-end chance of seeing strong to severe storms does extend northward to a line from Columbus to Shelby, but potential will be limited by worse surface moisture and as a result lower instability. Saturday and Beyond: By Saturday morning, we'll be left with northwesterly winds and a break in the action as a weak ridge builds ahead of the next deep system. Highs take a hit both days into the 60s, but they should be an overall nice couple of days. The next focus of the forecast period comes Monday, when a high-amplitude and negatively-tilting trough pivots eastward from the Rockies, shooting a cutoff low northeastward just to the north of the forecast area. With it strong frontal passage will be dragged eastward with steep lapse rates, strong moisture transport, and strong deep-layer shear that will result in another round of strong to severe storms. Long- range model hodographs certainly have enough low-level curvature to entertain a tornado risk, but the orientation of the front and how negatively tilted it will become will have a great deal to say regarding storms' ability to stay discrete or not. Fortunately this round of storms will mark the last for what looks to be the remainder of the work week with increasing chances for moisture returning next weekend and highs in the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Dense fog will linger at KOMA through the next hour or two. Visibilities will be near 1/4 and 1/2 mile, as supported by the KOMA observations and surrounding areas. Once the fog lifts, expect VFR conditions until showers and thunderstorms move into by 5z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ045-052- 053-067-068-089>092. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Pearson ####018004297#### FXUS63 KARX 031136 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 636 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog this morning. This fog may be localized dense. As drier air moves into the region and diurnal mixing occurs, this fog should burn off rapidly between 8 and 10 AM. - Rain and scattered storms are expected late tonight and Saturday. This rain will likely only last up to 6 hours in any location. With better forcing and moisture transport into the region, rainfall amounts were increased. They now look to range from a tenth to a half-inch. Highest rain totals look to be west of the Mississippi River where the forcing and moisture transport is the best. - For early next week (Tuesday and Tuesday night), there appears to be risk of severe weather. While the shear looks good, still some uncertainty of the amount of instability. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This Morning - Areas of fog - potentially dense The combination of clearing skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will result in the development of fog across much of the area early this morning. There may be even some localized dense fog. As drier air moves into the region and diurnal mixing develops this fog should quickly dissipate between 03.13z and 03.15z. Late Tonight through Saturday - Rain and scattered storms The 05.03z models are in good agreement that a longwave trough will move east through the forecast area from late tonight into Saturday. Ahead of this wave, a 40 to 50-knot 850 mb jet will increase the moisture transport across the area. Precipitable water values will increase into the 1 to 1.4 inch range. The highest values will be south of Interstate 90. This is higher than the past couple of days. Due to this the precipitation totals were increased. They now range from a tenth of an inch to a half-inch. The highest values will be likely west of the Mississippi River where the forcing and moisture transport will be the strongest. The CAMs show that the rain and scattered storms will likely only affect an area up to 6 hours. Used the CONSShort and the CAMs to try and add some timing to this precipitation. Even by doing this, still likely holding onto this precipitation a bit too long. While the 0-6 km shear increases into the 40 to 50 knot range (highest north of Interstate 90), the 0-4 km most-unstable CAPES remains below 100 J/kg, so not anticipating any severe weather from these storms. Monday Night into Tuesday Night - Another round of showers and storms The models continue to show that a closed 500 mb low will lift out of the desert southwest and move into the Northern Plains on Monday. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move northeast through the area on Tuesday. This will likely result in a line of showers and storms. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF suggest the potential for the 0-6 km shear will be in the excess of 40 knots. The main question continues to be the timing differences with this system which greatly impacts the amount of instability that will be found across the region. Colorado State severe probability still shows a 15 to 30% chance in northeast Iowa and southwest and central Wisconsin. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Dense fog bringing IFR/LIFR visibilities burns off quickly this morning with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be around 5 to 8 kts from the S/SW today, backing to the S/SE tonight. Rain showers move into the area from the west after 06Z, approaching LSE at the end of the TAF period. These showers persist through the morning on Saturday and exit during the afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ032>034. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-088- 095-096. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>010- 018-019-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Skow ####018003216#### FXUS64 KOHX 031137 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 637 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers are ongoing across the area thanks to a weakening shortwave to our west. That wave will slowly move through the area this morning and lift northeast of the plateau by lunchtime. More scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon as another disturbance approaches. MLCAPE values this afternoon will be 1000-1500 J/kg but shear will be weak. While a gusty storm can't be ruled out, severe storms are not expected. There will likely be a lull in the action tonight into Saturday morning as we are in between waves and we lose the diurnal heating. More scattered showers and storms will develop Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The upper air pattern will remain active in the extended forecast as the quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbance after weak disturbance. The scattered showers and storms from Saturday will continue into Saturday night before we catch a break Sunday morning and afternoon. Another wave will approach Sunday evening with more showers and storms overnight. That wave will linger into Monday. Some temporary upper ridging may try to build into the area on Tuesday which could lower the rain chances, but it will be short-lived as the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow reestablishes itself midweek. Overnight temperatures through the forecast will be mild thanks to dew points in the 60s and extensive cloud cover. Daily highs will depend on the coverage of showers and storms each day but generally highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers have spread across Middle Tennessee this morning, and it appears that low ceilings are soon to move in as the boundary layer becomes more saturated. Rain chances stay with us for the foreseeable future, so get used to these kinds of TAFs. There is some instability in the atmosphere, especially during the afternoon, so we've included a few hours of VCTS after 18Z. However, we don't expect any sort of organized convection, so it is difficult to pinpoint any exact timing of thunderstorm activity due to their scattered nature. Rain chances will taper off (temporarily) by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 66 81 65 / 70 60 50 40 Clarksville 78 63 81 64 / 80 40 30 40 Crossville 74 61 74 60 / 80 60 70 50 Columbia 80 64 80 63 / 80 50 40 40 Cookeville 76 63 76 62 / 80 60 60 50 Jamestown 75 61 75 60 / 90 60 70 50 Lawrenceburg 80 64 79 63 / 80 50 40 40 Murfreesboro 80 64 80 63 / 80 50 50 40 Waverly 79 63 79 64 / 70 50 40 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose ####018005984#### FXUS65 KBOU 031139 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 539 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers on the northeast plains tonight. - Warmer and windy on Sunday. - Sunday night into Monday will see a good chance of snow showers in the mountains. Windy and cooler over the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor displays showers and storms located in Wyoming this morning. The shortwave trough axis will likely stay to the north but our area should receive an increase in mid-level starting late morning. Additionally, a breezy day will occur through this evening across the region with wind gusts up to 35 mph as the shortwave trough lifts north. 700mb temperatures reach 6-8C; this will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the urban corridor and plains. Mountains and valleys should warm up to the mid 40s to 50s this afternoon. Weak instability between 100-300 J/kg will likely support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Favorable conditions for severe storms are mainly along the Kansas Colorado border late afternoon and early evening. If a storm is able to develop in that environment, expect 1 inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. With snow level roughly near 8k ft, higher elevations especially along the Park Range could accumulate snow up to 1-4 inches through Saturday morning. Late afternoon, a cold front will sweep into the CWA increasing wind gusts once more. This may produce wind gusts up to 45-50 mph. As the cold front passes, it is possible the environment becomes too stable to support any additional thunderstorm development. Tonight, drier air enters our region. Low temperatures remain near normal. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The flow aloft will become WSW on Sat as a weak sfc lee trough develops by aftn. This will allow for SSE low level flow to develop across the plains. Some moisture will affect the higher terrain by aftn with MLCAPE around 200 j/kg. As a result, there will be a chc of aftn showers and a few tstms, especially over the higher terrain along and south of I-70. Across the plains it will be dry and cooler with highs in the 60's. By Sun, SW flow aloft will increase across the area as a storm system moves into the Great Basin. In addition, sfc low pres will intensify from central WY into ern CO with stg southerly flow in the lower levels. As a result, will likely see winds gusts in the 45-55 mph range across the plains Sun aftn. As far as precip chances, MLCAPE will rise to around 300 j/kg over portions of the plains, however, there is a capping inversion which probably will inhibit tstm development. Meanwhile, highs will be warmer over most of the plains as readings rise into the 70's. The only exception would be over the far ern plains, where highs may stay in the mid to upper 60s due to low level cloud cover. For Sun night into Mon, the storm system over the Great Basin will move quickly ENE with an intense upper level low moving into ern WY, by Mon aftn. As the srn extent of the upper level trough moves across nrn CO, there will be a round of snow in the mtns Sun night into Mon morning. Across the plains, a bora type front will move across during the day with gusty WNW winds developing by midday. There also could be a chc of showers in the morning as a quick shot of mid level ascent moves across. Highs across the plains will drop back into the 60's. Looking ahead to Mon night into Tue, an intense storm system will be over the nrn Plains. This will allow for brisk WNW flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections, show enough moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of orographic snow showers to the mtns. Across the plains, it will be dry with gusty WNW winds continuing. On Wed, the storm system will move slowly eastward with WNW flow aloft remaining over the region. Once again, there will be some moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of snow showers to the mtns. Across the plains, it will remain dry and windy with highs remaining in the 60's. By Thu, the flow aloft will become more NW as a shot of cooler air moves into the area behind a front. In addition, there may be a disturbance embedded in the flow which could bring a chc of precip to the region as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/... Issued at 533 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions continue for the TAF period. Winds increase between 14-17kts and shift southeasterly by mid afternoon. Gusts up to 22-28kts could occur. It is possible just before the front arrives, scattered showers and storms develop northeast of all terminals. Outflow from these showers could lead to stronger wind gusts up to 30-35kts and variable wind direction. A cold front should arrive sometime between 23-01Z thus increasing wind briefly between 20-24kts. By 03-05Z, winds will decrease but struggle to turn back into drainage. Expect northeasterly flow late tonight through Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 It will be windy over the plains Sunday through Tuesday. Humidity levels will gradually drop from Monday into Tuesday. However, recent rainfall combined with greening up of vegetation could reduce fire danger across portions of the plains. At the time, the most likely area for increasing fire danger would be over southern Lincoln county. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...RPK AVIATION...AD FIRE WEATHER...RPK