####018006594#### FXUS63 KGRB 031155 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 655 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday evening with more showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. - Slightly elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across northern WI, this afternoon and again Sunday and Monday afternoons due to RHs dropping into the 20-35 percent range. - A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday Main forecast issues will be dealing with lingering low clouds/fog early today, relative humidities in the 20/30s this afternoon and any fire weather issues, and shower/thunder chances Saturday afternoon. Today...rain showers associated with a shortwave trough and weak low pressure/front will exit east of the area early this morning, with only some patchy fog/drizzle/sprinkles left around sunrise across mainly northern/eastern WI. As drier air advects in from the west, look for any light precip to end/exit, with the fog and low clouds mixing out through the morning hours. Plenty of sunshine is expected in the late morning and afternoon as high pressure builds across the western Great Lakes. Mixing to at least 4000-5000 ft will support warmer temperatures, with highs climbing into the upper 60s to middle 70s, and west winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph (strongest in northern WI) and low relative humidity (20-35 percent) in the sandy soil areas. If we can mix closer to 7000 ft, as the RAP suggests, wind gusts would be a little higher and RH's a little lower. The recent rainfall, along with the continued green-up, will limit the overall fire weather concern. However, locations across northern WI may see slightly elevated fire weather conditions as green-up has been the slowest, the deepest mixing is expected and winds will be the highest this afternoon. Tonight...dry conditions continue as high pressure slides east of the region. Mostly clear skies are expected during the evening, with mid and high clouds spreading east across the area overnight. Lows look to mainly be in the 40s with a light south/southeast wind. Saturday...a dry start to the day is expected, but skies look to become cloudy through the morning. An area of rain showers will spread west to east across the area during the morning, as another shortwave trough and frontal boundary approach from the west. This first area looks to be weakening as it traverses the area, but additional showers look to develop later in the morning and afternoon ahead of the front. Rain amounts look to remain under a quarter inch for most spots. As for thunder chances, assuming the front pushes through in the afternoon, should get at least 500 J/kg of CAPE across eastern WI by early-mid afternoon. This would be enough to support a few storms, but severe weather is not expected. Will carry a slight chance for thunder in the afternoon across parts of central and eastern WI. Light south/southeast winds will increase in the morning ahead of the front, then shift to the west/northwest behind the front in the afternoon. Winds could get a little gusty, up to around 35 mph ahead of the front, but will be difficult to break into the inversion to mix down the stronger winds. Will hold gusts closer to 20-25 mph for now. As CAA arrives behind the front, better mixing will promote gusts to ~25 mph. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday Main focus of the extended period revolves around a well organized cyclone that is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early to middle of next week. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two may linger Saturday night into early Sunday morning across far eastern WI as an upper-level trough and surface cold front depart from the region. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over area Sunday returning dry and calm conditions to the region through at least Monday afternoon. The ridge will also ushering in a drier air mass which may lower RHs to around 30 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons. These lower RHs and warmer temperatures in the low 60s to around 70 degrees may bring slightly elevated fire weather conditions to far northern WI, where vegetation has yet to green up, Sunday and Monday afternoons. While there are still slight differences in timing and intensity, ensemble models are in decent agreement that a near vertically stacked low pressure system will eject out of the Great Basin toward the norther Plains late Monday into Tuesday. An initial wave of warm air advection out in front of the low along with diffluent flow aloft may bring a round scatter showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday. Perhaps the best chance for strong to potential severe storms comes Tuesday afternoon and evening as much of the CWA may reside in the warm sector allowing for an increase in instability, however, the question remains if there will be a forcing mechanism present for thunderstorm initiation. Periods of rain and thunderstorms will remain possible through Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone brings several pieces of jet energy across the region. With several area rivers and streams already at or near bankfull the active pattern for next week may create some minor flooding concerns particularly in low laying and flood prone areas. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering MVFR/IFR conditions, with some briefly lower VSBYs possible in central and north central WI, will continue early this morning, then will improve to VFR by mid to late morning as high pressure and drier air build into the region. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight, with some mid high clouds arriving overnight. West winds will gust up to 25 kts today, then decrease late this afternoon. Light south to southeast winds are expected tonight. LLWS will be possible overnight as southeast winds increase to 30-35 kts at 2000 ft. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch/GK AVIATION.......Bersch ####018005271#### FXUS64 KEPZ 031157 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 557 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across this weekend and into much of next week. Afternoon breezes this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, will increase in speed Sunday and Monday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. The winds will create blowing dust and combined with the very dry air, critical fire weather conditions will also develop. The winds and critical fire conditions will likely continue Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current satellite/sfc obs show dry-line just east of Carlsbad- Roswell line and with typical slow nocturnal westward movement, will pass through those sites and near the eastern CWA border next few hours before mixing out back eastward. Aloft, a weak short wave trough over northern Utah will sweep east across the central Rockies and allowing afternoon breezes to develop this afternoon. High temps will remain around 4 to 7 degrees above normal. Much the same again Saturday as a short wave trough moves up in the sub-tropical jet that sweeps across southern New Mexico for more afternoon breezes. Winds begin a ramp up starting Sunday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. Winds become quite gusty with some blowing dust both Sunday and Monday. With fire conditions becoming critical many areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for the southern New Mexico zones. Winds over west Texas will be slightly lower so will leave those zones out for now. The story remains the same through the rest of the forecast period (Thursday); windy afternoons, very dry airmass with critical fire conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions through the period, with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds west AOB 7 knots, increasing to west/southwest 10-15G25 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Very dry, warm, elevated to critical fire conditions will be with us at least through mid week of next week, with no prospects of rain through that period. Winds become gusty Sunday and persist through Wednesday. A fire watch will be issued for NM zones for Sunday, and more watches/RFW likely beyond Sunday. West Texas zones left of watch Sunday due to slightly lower winds, but by Monday and Tuesday their winds will be as high the rest of the forecast area. Min RHs: Lowland 7-12% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through Wednesday. Overnight recovery, especially the lowlands, will be poor. Vent rates excellent through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 88 54 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 66 40 67 37 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 85 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 76 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 48 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 86 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 50 89 53 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 90 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 81 53 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 85 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 87 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 43 74 40 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 76 42 76 40 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 75 42 76 38 / 0 0 10 10 Winston 79 43 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 84 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 80 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 83 39 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 78 35 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 79 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 84 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 77 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner