####018012240#### FXUS65 KABQ 031200 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 600 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warmer conditions will prevail today, with a few late day strong to severe storms closer to the Texas border. A backdoor front will move southwest across the area Friday night through Saturday, bringing some cooling and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley. The front may trigger storms across north central and eastern NM Saturday, but storms across southeast NM may become severe. A strong disturbance will approach Sunday and move over Monday, bringing very windy conditions with areas of blowing dust both days. Stronger westerly winds will persist Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance, but will trend down by Wednesday. A cold front may move south across the state toward the end of next week, bringing chances for showers and storms to eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A return flow of low level moisture has spread low clouds across much of the east central and northeast plains and highlands this morning. These will retreat gradually from the west from mid morning through the early afternoon. However, an upper level trough passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies will work with this moisture, and high temperatures a few to around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, to spark scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast and east central areas this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe cells will be possible near the eastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. In addition, some garden variety thunderstorms will probably get started as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Tonight, a moist backdoor front pushing south and southwestward through the eastern plains will probably trigger isolated additional storms. And, there will probably be areas of low clouds again across the east tonight into early Saturday morning. Around sunrise Saturday, the backdoor front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe southward. Gusts could peak around 40 mph in Santa Fe and up to 50 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque early Saturday morning. A disturbance crossing the forecast area from the southwest will interact with all the moisture to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across north central, east central and southeast areas on Saturday afternoon, as well as mostly dry and gusty storms over the continental divide region of northwest NM. Shear and instability look strong enough for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southern Roosevelt and eastern Chaves Counties, even with high temperatures a few to around 11 degrees below 30-year averages over the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs near to around 5 degrees above the averages are forecast central and west. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Any remaining convection Saturday evening will follow a normal diurnal downturn and/or move east off into west TX. Low stratus/fog development is likely late Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain, as a thin near-surface moisture layer holds over the area. A potent upper level low will move east from the Great Basin toward the central/southern Rockies Sunday through Monday, spreading very strong winds aloft over the region. The timing of the approach may allow for a few storms to take off near the TX/OK borders Sunday afternoon after a dryline sharpens. However, near-surface moisture depth may be insufficient to fuel deeper convection. Will carry a slight chance mention of storms across the eastern plains for Sunday afternoon and any storms that do develop will likely become severe given impressive 0-6km bulk shear and strong dryline forcing. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft on Sunday will bring very windy conditions to much of the area, with blowing dust likely by afternoon across central and western NM where winds are forecast to reach at least advisory criteria. Strong westerly flow will prevail Monday behind the upper level trough/low ejecting out of the central/southern Rockies, with more areas of blowing dust. Winds are currently forecast to reach advisory criteria on Monday, but the winds aloft are strong enough to produce high wind gusts along and immediately east of the central mountain chain and near the CO border from Raton to near Clayton. Strong westerly flow and windy to very windy conditions will persist Tuesday as broad cyclonic flow prevails across the region. Winds will finally begin to trend down Wednesday and be much less by Thursday as a cold front moves southwest across the area. The front may interact with weak troughing over the region to produce a round of showers and storms late Thursday into early next Friday, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Areas of MVFR and localized IFR conditions in low clouds across northeast and east central areas will continue through much of the morning, lingering longest near the eastern border with OK and TX where low clouds will probably persist until early afternoon. There will also be some patchy and dense fog near NM's eastern border. This afternoon, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to cross east central and northeast areas, reaching as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cells will move toward the east and northeast at speeds around 20-25 KT. There may be a few strong to severe storms with localized and erratic wind gusts to 50 KT and/or large hail near NM's eastern border. A gusty and moist backdoor front is then forecast to dive south and southwestward through eastern areas tonight causing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to linger, especially near the TX border. Areas of low clouds will probably also return to the eastern plains late tonight. The front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind in the KSAF and KABQ areas perhaps as early as the predawn hours Saturday morning, but more likely just after sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Higher humidities over eastern areas with a chance for showers and thunderstorms today, will spread into central areas as well on Saturday enabling thunderstorm chances to spread further west as well. Isolated gusty and dry storms are forecast across the continental divide region of northwest NM on Saturday afternoon, with scattered to isolate wetting storms on the eastern plains. A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop Sunday through mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire weather conditions. With this forecast package will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor westward on Sunday, as well as the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, where critical conditions will be favored. The critical conditions will spread to the plains as well starting Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 78 45 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 72 33 73 36 / 0 0 20 20 Cuba............................ 71 41 69 39 / 0 0 20 10 Gallup.......................... 73 36 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 38 71 39 / 0 0 10 0 Grants.......................... 74 36 74 35 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 70 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 66 36 / 0 5 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 67 46 / 0 0 20 20 Pecos........................... 71 42 65 42 / 10 5 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 43 64 41 / 5 0 30 20 Red River....................... 62 31 60 33 / 10 5 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 63 25 58 31 / 10 10 30 30 Taos............................ 72 34 69 36 / 5 0 20 20 Mora............................ 70 36 62 38 / 10 10 20 40 Espanola........................ 79 44 76 46 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 73 47 69 45 / 5 0 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 72 44 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 53 75 51 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 52 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 83 47 80 45 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 82 50 78 49 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 82 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 82 50 78 48 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 82 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 77 50 72 48 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 47 66 45 / 0 0 20 10 Tijeras......................... 74 47 69 45 / 0 0 10 10 Edgewood........................ 75 42 69 44 / 0 0 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 37 70 41 / 5 0 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 72 39 64 41 / 10 5 20 20 Mountainair..................... 75 42 70 42 / 0 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 75 43 71 41 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 79 51 77 49 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 69 44 / 0 0 10 10 Capulin......................... 67 34 60 41 / 30 20 10 20 Raton........................... 72 36 66 41 / 20 20 20 20 Springer........................ 74 38 65 43 / 20 20 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 73 38 64 41 / 10 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 72 42 64 46 / 30 20 5 30 Roy............................. 73 41 64 45 / 20 20 10 30 Conchas......................... 82 47 72 49 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 80 44 67 47 / 20 10 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 81 47 70 49 / 20 20 20 40 Clovis.......................... 83 52 70 51 / 20 10 40 50 Portales........................ 85 52 70 51 / 20 10 40 60 Fort Sumner..................... 84 48 71 50 / 20 10 20 40 Roswell......................... 91 56 81 56 / 5 5 20 30 Picacho......................... 84 48 73 49 / 5 0 20 20 Elk............................. 81 47 77 46 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44 ####018007681#### FXUS64 KEWX 031200 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 700 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Early morning storms continue along the Highway 77 corridor with a strong storm now exiting northern Fayette county. Light showers are also noted farther west along portions of I-35 and the Hill Country. Elsewhere, patchy fog is in place for most areas outside of the Rio Grande plains. Hi-res models generally show convection will continue for a few more hours early this morning, then gradually decrease in coverage. KEWX VAD wind profile does show roughly 20-25kt southeasterly flow in the lower levels. This along with very moist air characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s is helping to aid convection. For today, expect plenty of cloud cover and humid conditions over the region. Highs today will range from the mid 90s out west along the Rio Grande where some afternoon clearing will be realized. Farther east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, highs should stay in the 80s. We will keep rain chances in the forecast today as widely scattered to scattered showers and storms will develop as the lower levels continue to heat. For the late afternoon and evening hours, attention will turn to west Texas as the dryline becomes active. In addition, we should see some convection develop over the Serranias del Burro mountains of Mexico. A good amount of the 00Z hi- res convective allowing models show clusters of storms shifting eastward into the Rio Grande plains, with perhaps a line of storms moving into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Whether or not these storms can make it farther east through the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor is still uncertain. For now, we have raised rain chances considerably over the NBM for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country as confidence for convection is higher across these locations. Rain chances may need to be raised farther east across the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor pending the next suite of hi-res model data. SPC has placed areas generally along and west of the I-35/I-37 corridors in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats at this time. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely, and this may lead to localized flooding in areas that have seen recent rains. Another round of storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, with the the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center placing areas along and north of a Del Rio to San Antonio to Giddings line in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A cold front may move into portions of north and central Texas late Saturday and this may provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. We will also need to watch for locally heavy rainfall, especially if the cold front or a strong outflow boundary drops southward into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A shortwave disturbance moves through West TX Saturday and generates upscaled convection over West Central and North TX for Saturday evening. Our Hill Country counties are on the southern periphery of this feature, and as we have seen from the Wednesday storm activity, will benefit from the best rain chances for Saturday night. Outflow boundaries will likely lead to locally higher PoPs in the eastern Hill Country and Austin metro area after midnight and into much of Sunday. Additional weak shortwave energy could continue to generate more widely scattered or isolated convection across most areas through Sunday evening. QPF amounts could favor more heavy rainfall mentioning across the north, but not enough areas have endured truly soaked soil conditions for there to be a FFA concern this far out. Farther south or along and south of Highway 90, lower rain chances are expected and overall QPF is minuscule when compared to the rainfall potential along and north of I-10. That said, a discrete strong to severe storm or two forming over southern counties could end up dropping a quick 1-2 inches over isolated spots Throughout the period Saturday night through Sunday night. Appropriately, the national centers have deemed our severe weather and heavy rainfall threats to be "marginal", but areas of "slight" for both categories exist to the north and east, so a possible escalation to the higher threat could evolve as we get closer to the time periods. Sunday night the fetch of shortwave activity appears to fizzle out as a vigorous upper trough cuts across the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Models have trended more humid and mostly cloudy for Monday with still a relatively deep layer of Gulf moisture. Thus have followed the trends to believe there could be a few showers or sprinkles as the cap takes hold aloft. The drier and more stable pattern in the mid levels should bring our first taste of summer heat for Tuesday through Thursday. The GFS was especially hard-hitting with a short-lived heat wave covering western and central counties in this period, but both GFS and ECM are trending toward less mixing of this drier air aloft mixing down. As it stands, we still see a good chance of triple digit heat along the Rio Grande through the mid-week period, but central and eastern counties are a bit less certain on the temperature range. Thus, will state vaguely that highs in the 90s are most likely each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR and VLIFR will continue along the I-35 corridor through much of this morning. We do expect cigs to rise some by late morning, but cigs will likely remain IFR or perhaps upper end MVFR into the early afternoon. Some light showers may also develop along I-35, but coverage will be fairly low through this morning. For DRT, we will keep MVFR in the forecast through this morning. We are noting some breaks in the low cloud along the Rio Grande and DRT could see a return to VFR earlier if these breaks persist. For the afternoon and evening hours, attention turns to the west with some convection expected to develop west of the Rio Grande, the move eastward into the Rio Grande plains. We will continue to mention the PROB30 group for TSRA at DRT between 22 and 02Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 70 86 70 / 30 20 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 70 85 69 / 30 20 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 71 89 71 / 30 20 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 84 69 83 69 / 20 20 30 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 74 91 73 / 30 50 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 89 70 88 69 / 20 20 20 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 70 87 69 / 30 20 20 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 72 86 72 / 30 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 88 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...18 Aviation...Platt ####018006552#### FXUS66 KMFR 031201 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 501 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 Updated AVIATION Section .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some marine stratus at the coast and in the Umpqua valley of Douglas County with some higher clouds beginning to move toward the coast. This is part of a more dynamic low pressure system that will be working its way through southern Oregon and northern California today into Saturday night. This low is not particularly strong, but it could bring some relatively significant precipitation to the area. Precipitation will begin at the coast and spread inland throughout the day. With the low tracking in right overhead, initial amounts may be impacted by terrain influences (specifically downsloping causing less precipitation to reach the ground for inland valleys and upsloping at the coast and coast range to increase the precipitation). However, as the low moves across the area, the terrain influences will likely be overwhelmed, and this shot of precipitation could be relatively heavy for this time of year (especially early Saturday morning). A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the precipitation on Saturday, especially with a strong cold pool aloft as evidenced by quickly lowering snow levels. In fact, snow levels will be coming down quickly from 8000 feet today to around 3000 to 3500 feet tonight. The snow levels could fall in alignment with the heavy precipitation which could facilitate a quicker changeover from rain to snow. This could lead to a period of inch per hour snowfall rates of wet snow in the Cascades and in Western Siskiyou County. Specifically, the HREF is indicating a 60 to 80 percent chance of these inch an hour snowfall rates from 4 AM to 8AM, which could lead to decent accumulations. The NBM shows a 40% chance of seeing 6 inches of snow in the Cascades Saturday night. Have issued winter weather advisories for the Cascades north of Highway 140 and Western Siskiyou County above 4000 feet (mainly for Sawyers Bar Road near Mt. Etna). Other areas may see some snow, but accumulations are not expected to be as high. In addition to the precipitation, winds will be a factor as well with this low. There will be a point where winds will largely be from the south along the front ahead of the low pressure system. Statistical guidance is suggesting 40 mph winds at Weed in the Shasta Valley on Saturday night, which is reasonable due to the decoupling of the atmosphere likely ahead of the increase in winds (which is leading to the higher precipitation rates). However, after daybreak on Saturday, the winds will pick up from the south, and could reach 50 mph. This will largely be confined to areas of Lake County, Oregon and eastward. Have issued a wind advisory for the higher elevations of Lake County including the Winter Rim and Highway 31. Showers associated with this low will linger through Saturday, although the heaviest precipitation and the gustiest winds will largely have concluded by Saturday night. Temperatures, however, will be relatively chilly and any wet roads along and east of the Cascades and in northern California may refreeze. The flow pattern becomes more zonal for Monday and another impulse will pass through the area bringing additional showers and possibly some more thunderstorms to the area. Precipitation amounts should be relatively light even if snow levels continue to hover between 3000 and 3500 feet which is unusual for May. The pattern then shifts Wednesday to a ridge of high pressure which will allow southern Oregon and northern California to warm up and dry out. This pattern will likely last into the weekend. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...03/12Z TAFs...Areas of LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings are present in the Coquille Valley up to North Bend and over into the Umpqua Valley near Roseburg. The lower conditions will lift to VFR this morning, but drop back to MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys as a potent cold front moves in with periods of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere inland through late this afternoon/early this evening. The front will spread moderate precipitation across the rest of the west side tonight, reaching east of the Cascades Saturday morning. Expect widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR in rain with higher terrain obscured in rain/snow. A rapid drop in freezing levels will occur overnight (~09-15Z) from west to east and especially around 12Z Saturday morning near the Cascades. Rain will change to snow down to as low as 2500 feet with brief heavy snow in the mountains, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Breezy south winds are expected with the front too, with peak gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Despite the increasing winds, low level wind shear is not a concern at this time. Conditions should improve a bit behind the front with precipitation becoming more showery, but still with a good amount of MVFR ceilings/visibility. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives on Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas Monday night into Tuesday. After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid-late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for CAZ080. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ ####018006843#### FXUS66 KMTR 031202 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 502 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1243 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front will bring rain, gusty winds, and colder temperatures on Saturday. Dry weather returns Sunday as a gradual warming trend kicks off. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A shallow marine layer will bring low stratus to coastal areas and adjacent valleys Friday morning. High temperatures will depend on whether a location is in or out of the marine layer. For example, Pt. Reyes is only expected to reach 56 degrees today, while Santa Rosa will flirt with 80, and enjoy ample sunshine. By the afternoon, an approaching cold front will cause the winds to increase, with rain reaching the North Bay early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 A gale force, 997 mb, vertically stacked low pressure system is currently near the Gulf of Alaska. This system will be driven southeast by a 150 kt jet stream through Saturday. This strong jet max will also create divergence aloft, allowing the surface pressure to remain steady or even decrease slightly as the system loses latitude. The low center is expected to come ashore near Northern California or Southern Oregon early Saturday morning. An associated cold front will cross the Bay Area through the day Saturday. This frontal passage will bring periods of rain and gusty winds as it ushers in a new, colder air mass. Precipitable water values are expected to be above 1" on Saturday, with some guidance as high as 1.25". As the cold, dense air lifts this moisture, rain clouds will develop. The total QPF is holding pretty steady with most places expected to receive around 0.5" on Saturday. While not a total wash-out, this is a significant amount for May, which has monthly normal rainfall pretty close to the expected amount from this one system. During the afternoon OAK balloon launch Thursday, the 1000-700 mb thickness was measured at 2967 m. This new air mass will drop the that to around 2815 m, according to the NAM point sounding. By Sunday morning, NAM has the 700 mb temperature down to -12.7C, which is well below the 10th percentile (-5.2 C) and even the daily minimum (-9.9 C) from May 5, 1988. Note the 1000-500 mb thickness drop isn't as impressive due to more flat mid-level lapse rates. This suggests that any convection that takes advantage of the cold air aloft will be low-topped, even by Bay Area standards. Additionally, the coldest mid-level air arrives overnight Saturday/early Sunday during the diurnal minimum. These two factors should limit the potential for thunderstorms, although a slight chance remains. Finally, this system will bring a noticeable drop in temperature, especially for inland areas. Friday will feature inland temps in the mid to upper 70s. 24 hours later, these same places will be stuck in the upper 50s or low 60s. Beyond Saturday, the forecast is more straight forward. Ridging from subtropical high pressure builds in Sunday which will gradually transition to the standard coastal trough set-up by mid next week. This pattern will bring the return of dry weather, lots of sunshine, and a gradual warming trend. Coastal areas may reach the low 70s and some inland areas will be in the 80s by late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently seeing between LIFR and VFR at the terminals. Widespread VFR to prevail by this afternoon. Winds will be breezy to gusty out of the west through this evening. Mid-to-low end MVFR ceilings make a return tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. This cold front will bring rain and breezy to gusty southwesterly winds to the terminals tonight into tomorrow with LVK, MRY, SJC, and SNS not slated to see rain until beyond the 24-hour TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with breezy to gusty westerly flow. Confidence is highest in the terminal returning to VFR between 15Z and 18Z this morning. Westerly winds will only continue to ramp up as the day goes on. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect from 22Z through 03Z for gusts of up to 40 knots. Winds will remain gusty while becoming southwesterly ahead and through the cold front. Rain chances return to the terminal after 13Z tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with breezy southwesterly flow at MRY and IFR with breezy northwesterly flow at SNS. Highest confidence is in both terminals returning to VFR by 18Z. MVFR stratus returns to both terminals this evening with MRY further deteriorating to IFR as the night progresses. Winds will be breezy out of the west through the TAF period. Rain does not reach either terminal until beyond the 24-hour TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 457 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 Strong and gusty northwesterly winds will persist for yet another day as the region remains in between high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and low pressure over the Southwest. Gale force gusts will be possible, especially over the coastal waters and southernmost zones. Tonight, a cold front will drop down from the Pacific Northwest bringing rain and moderate to fresh breezes across the waters. As the low pressure system exits to the east and the pressure gradient is allowed to relax, winds will diminish going into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea