####018003544#### FXAK67 PAJK 031306 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 506 AM AKDT Fri May 3 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Short range forecast continues to be rather quiet as high pressure and light offshore flow persists across the area. Few if any clouds over the panhandle except a layer of high thin cirrus. The clear conditions have lead to some areas in the north dipping near freezing overnight so frost advisories remain up until 8 am this morning. Those same clearer conditions will lead to a sunny warm day today which will likely be the warmest day of the week. Highs are expected to reach into the 60s with the warmer air getting pushed into the panhandle from the south (850 mb temps rising to 2 to 4c) by the weakening low in the central gulf. As for winds, inner channel winds have shown an upward trend overnight as northerly pressure gradients increased as the ridge over the panhandle was pushed into Canada. This was especially noticeable in the north where Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and Cross Sound are showing E to N winds of 15 to 20 kt this morning. These winds should start to lower again this afternoon into tonight as the ridge rebuilds into the panhandle and slackens pressure gradients. Winds also remain elevated in the central gulf this morning (25 to 30 kt E winds) from the weakening low in the south central gulf. That low is not long for this world however as it is expected to weakens away by this afternoon weakening the winds in the gulf as it does so. .LONG TERM...Change in store for Southeast Alaska from the very beginning of this medium & long range forecast period. A weakening front crossing the Gulf will still produce some rain Saturday along the northeast Gulf Coast. South of Cape Fairweather, conditions should remain dry, if not sunny, through the daylight hours on Saturday, but a short wave will rejuvenate the distal end of the front as it approaches the southern outer coast late Saturday night and all locations should see at least a little measurable rain on Sunday. Unsettled weather and shower activity will remain over the region through the middle of the work week. Looking well out into the long range, there are indications in long range guidance that at least part of the Panhandle may see some heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are both picking up on this and it was a topic of discussion and coordination with WPC this morning. Along with the increased cloudiness, there will be a subtle reduction in daytime highs during this extended range forecast. Very little change to overnight lows until Wednesday night when they warm ever so slightly. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Off shore winds persist through today, with winds decreasing through the afternoon as a weakening surface low pressure dissipates within the north Pacific and upper level ridging builds in aloft. Clouds should be limited to FEW to SCT cirrus with isolated afternoon CU development over land. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317-319>321- 325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM....Fritsch AVIATION...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018006868#### FXUS62 KILM 031308 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 908 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. && .UPDATE... Fog has dissipated across the area, with only lingering patches of low clouds which will continue to clear out. Otherwise previous forecast remains on track for a warm, partly cloudy day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Still expecting fog development this morning, although confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours, especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM. Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While these values aren't far off climatological values for early May, the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings. Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea breeze, but the region will remain dry. Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday. As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front. Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing moisture depth, even in weak instability. Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the increased cloud cover. Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s. A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight with similar morning lows; mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight. Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday. Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Range of VFR to IFR visibility and ceiling across the region this morning. Majority of the area will be VFR by 12Z. A few sites may hold onto IFR beyond 12Z, but by 13Z all sites should be VFR. Light winds continue today with another round of fog and low stratus possible tonight, although looking more like it may be an MVFR event vs IFR, will depend on cloud cover overnight. Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell. Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots. Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...III MARINE...III/21