####018006736#### FXUS61 KPHI 031336 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 936 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into New England with onshore flow setting up. A series of cold fronts approaches for the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 935 AM...High pressure to our north over eastern Canada has resulted in an easterly flow over the area and this has been advecting some marine stratus westward through the coastal plain into parts of eastern PA just within the past couple hours. As of mid morning, this stratus has worked about as far west as Northeast Philadelphia (PNE) and could even make it a bit farther west through the late morning before starting to retreat for a time this afternoon. Due to this trend we've generally increased sky cover in the forecast with the mid morning update as we also still have some cloud cover that will be arriving from the west by later today. The onshore flow has also resulted in a much cooler airmass spreading into the region. Highs will be much colder compared to Thursday, topping off in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region, and in the upper 60s to low 70s for far western portions of the forecast area. For coastal areas, onshore flow will keep temperatures in the 50s. Low pressure approaches from the west tonight. Most of the region will remain dry as high pressure hangs tough along the coast, but some showers may move into far western portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Not the best weekend ahead weather-wise but not necessarily terrible either. A weakening cold front will approach on Saturday, with some showers moving through ahead of it. Best chance to see showers will be west of the I-95 corridor, but can't rule out some light rain across the area. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and cool with a steady onshore flow. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s. With the maritime airmass in place, not expecting much in terms of thunderstorms as it should remain rather stable. Showers become more widespread by Saturday Night through Sunday Night as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Highest PoPs are concentrated in the Sunday morning timeframe. Some elevated instability could move in for Sunday afternoon/evening but not expecting any severe weather, and just some rumbles of thunder mixed in with passing showers. The maritime airmass will continue to have a grip on the region, though flow turns a bit more southerly in southern Delmarva. The result will be another day in the upper 50s/low 60s for most, with upper 60s/70s in southern Delaware and along the southern Eastern Shore. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected for most of next week as a boundary stalls out over the region. Rain chances are in the forecast each day during the week as several waves of low pressure are expected to ride along the boundary. Each day won't be a washout by any means, and PoPs are generally around 20-40% Monday/Tuesday, with the highest coming in the afternoon. Not much instability will be present, with the threat of any thunderstorms/severe weather being low. Temperatures both days will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some 80s possible on Tuesday. The boundary looks to lift north by Tuesday in the form of a warm front, putting the region in the warm sector. Looking at a period of above normal temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday with upper 70s/low to mid 80s anticipated. A few shortwaves will move through, which will spark off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening both days. More instability will be present, so we will have to watch this window, though too early to tell if/how impactful any convection will be. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Low stratus will bring restrictions through the day at ACY where it's likely to stay IFR through the early afternoon before lifting to MVFR. MIV, TTN, PNE, ABE, and even PHL also likely to see at least times of MVFR cigs through early this afternoon due to the stratus having advected westward just within the past few hours this morning. Moderate confidence on the overall trend but low confidence regarding how far west the MVFR cigs make it around the greater Philadelphia area. Tonight...VFR for most of the night for most of the terminals, lowering to MVFR at KACY/KMIV late. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR restrictions possible later in the day especially at KRDG/KABE. Outlook... Saturday Night...Restrictions expected with steady rain moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible. Sunday...Restrictions expected with showers/low clouds moving through. CIGs as low as IFR possible. Sunday Night...Restrictions possible with 40-60% chance of showers and 15-25% chance of thunderstorms. Monday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period. && .MARINE... A tightening easterly pressure gradient will develop on the waters today, and E winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for most NJ and DE ocean waters. Seas will build to around 5 ft. Will go ahead and hoist a Small Craft Advisory for all ANZ451-455 from 8am to 4pm. Sub-SCA conditions for DE Bay today and tonight. Sub-SCA conditions for the ocean tonight. Patchy fog expected on the ocean waters today and tonight with 1 to 3 NM VSBYs. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MPS SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MPS MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS ####018002185#### FXUS62 KTBW 031338 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 938 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Weak high pressure off the Carolina coastline continues to ridge across Florida and will dominate the weather today with mostly rain- free conditions. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations area showing mostly sunny skies with some high cirrus clouds streaming in from the gulf. Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 70's with dew points in the upper 60's to low 70's. Daytime highs are expected to top out in the mid 80's along the coast and low to mid 90's over the interior. No changes needed to current forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 937 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will not include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of the terminals at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and remains in control over the gulf waters through the period. Mostly rain free conditions are anticipated with winds remaining 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the weekend. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front will move north of the area during the weekend, but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 71 89 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 40 20 GIF 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 90 71 89 71 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPG 88 73 87 74 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Hubbard ####018005531#### FXHW60 PHFO 031338 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 338 AM HST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The high pressure center far north of the Hawaiian Islands will build today producing breezy trade winds across the region for the next several days. An upper level disturbance will enhance passing showers in the forecast into early next week, favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. A few of the stronger showers will drift into leeward areas. Long range guidance shows an old frontal band moving into the islands from the northeast by early next week Wednesday. This cloud band may bring another brief round of wet weather to all islands from Wednesday morning into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Radar imagery this morning shows a fairly wet weather pattern over most island windward and mountain areas. These enhanced shower trends will tapper off a bit by mid morning to afternoon, then a return to more showers later this evening. Satellite water vapor imagery continues to track an unstable upper low northwest of Kauai with an upper level trough lingering over the state. A subtropical jet stream is also evident near the islands. Upper level divergent forcing will continue to keep enhanced showers in the forecast for the next several days. Two high pressure systems in the Central Pacific far north of the Hawaiian Islands will consolidate into one high center today. This high center will build slightly just north of the Hawaiian Islands and increase trade winds into breezy range into Monday. By Monday afternoon the high center begins to drift eastward away from the islands with a frontal trough moving into the Central Pacific basin. This change in large scale pressure patterns north of the islands will decrease trade wind speeds back to more moderate levels from Monday night onward. Expect continued enhanced showers across the state as the unstable upper level disturbance slowly drifts eastward across the island chain. Most of the rainfall amounts will favor windward and mountain areas as breezy trade winds build clouds up and over the windward mountain slopes. Down sloping trade wind flow over the leeward sides of island mountain ranges will tend to decrease shower activity for leeward areas of each island. Shower trends will tend to increase during our typical diurnal rainfall maximum in the overnight to early morning hours. In the extended forecast we continue to see a long band of unsettled shallow clouds, remnants of an old Eastern Pacific cold front, drifts into the islands on the moderate trade winds from Wednesday morning into Thursday. This cloud band may produce wet weather over all islands for an 18 to 24 hour time period. The highest rainfall amounts will tend to favor windward areas, however many leeward sites may also see measurable rainfall totals with this next system. This fairly shallow cloud band will likely not be deep enough to produce heavy rainfall, rather more beneficial rain is forecast for all islands. Rainfall chances were increased for the Wednesday into Thursday time period. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy E trades will continue to strengthen through today as high pressure builds in from the NE. A moisture plume riding the trades should bring in SHRA and MVFR conds to windward and mauka locations. While a few SHRA and lowering cigs/vsbys could reach leeward side, they look to be brief even with a slight increase in coverage. VFR conds should prevail. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward and mauka portions of the island chain. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb below 080 downwind of island terrain. AMD NOT SKED in for Midway due to missing wind speed and direction && .MARINE... Latest ASCAT shows fresh to locally strong winds have arrived as a high pressure builds far north of the state. These stronger trades will continue through the weekend and drop a notch or two early next week as the high moves far northeast of the state. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island has been expanded to all waters through early Monday morning. Some area may drop out earlier as winds begin to ease due to the high shifting northeast. Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through much of today. Forerunners of a long period northwest swell is expected to fill in this afternoon and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along north and west facing shores. Another small, long period northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small background south swells will continue into Saturday, providing tiny surf for south facing shores. Forerunners of a small, long period south swell may arrive Saturday afternoon with a slow onset through Sunday providing a boost in surf along south facing shores into early next week. Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores will bump up a notch Saturday and hold hold into early next week as strong trades hold. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...SMW MARINE...Almanza ####018005836#### FXUS62 KJAX 031338 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 938 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Morning fog has dissipated and the forecast is generally on track. Just minor tweaks to POPs for later today and tonight, with some showers and a few thunderstorms expected in similar areas as seen yesterday as the sea breeze penetrates inland. Activity is expected to linger over the Suwannee River Valley area and generally spread into interior GA overnight as a shortwave impulse approaches the area. Only marginal elevated instability and weak flow aloft should essentially curtail any strong or severe potential. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the next couple of hours the main concern will be localized fog. Dense fog cannot be entirely ruled out but have left it out of the forecast at the moment with generally low confidence (< 10% chance) of visibility lowering less than 1/4 mile. Any fog that does occur should lift and disperse by 9 AM or earlier. Stagnant pattern remains in place again today, featuring a stubborn surface high and supporting ridging aloft. Overall the low level pattern will stay consistent but an upper shortwave aloft will shove ridging aloft eastward late this evening and overnight. Strong subsidence and dry air should cap much of the convective attempts along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Enhanced moisture entering from the west in combination with an Atlantic/Gulf sea breeze interaction may spark isolated to widely scattered storms well inland, near and likely west of the I-75 corridor. Instability is still on the marginal side (only progged to be around 800-1200 J/kg), thus updrafts should be fairly weak in nature and severe weather is unlikely. Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will slowly propagate across the region resulting in increasing instability with a couple degrees of cooling aloft. This should be supportive of showers overnight mainly north of I-10 and a few elevated t-storms are also feasible through the early morning hours Saturday. Under influence of ridging aloft another seasonably warm day is on tap this afternoon with inland locations making another push toward 90F while coastal spots are cooled by the onshore flow with readings registering in the mid/upper 80s. Following the warm afternoon, temps will be mild, reading in the mid/upper 60s. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night) Showers and storms are expected this weekend as a series of short waves pass over the region with sea-breeze-driven storm developments becoming more widespread with diurnal heating. Mild easterly-southeasterly winds will persist through the period with the Atlantic afternoon sea breeze winds pushing inland. High temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. Patchy fog potential will exist each morning, especially in localized areas where heavy rain occurs with preceding afternoon convection. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Shortwave impulses continue to lift across the region through Monday with shower and storm developments becoming more inhibited as the week progresses due to the increased influence of upper ridging and associated subsidence extending over Florida and Georgia. Amid the stout upper ridge, winds turn offshore and enhance mixing which will boost high temperatures toward record levels as the week progresses; readings are forecast to be in the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Brief LIFR CIGS/VSBYS this morning at SSI/CRG/VQQ will become VFR by 13Z, then sea breeze from the East Coast will push inland through the day with SCT Cu field, but likely not enough moisture to support any rain chances higher than 20% at the TAF sites at this time, but will continue to monitor. Band of high clouds will overspread the TAF sites this afternoon above the local Cu field and will continue through tonight with winds becoming light after sunset. Have placed the usual MVFR fog at VQQ after 07Z. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 67 84 65 / 20 30 70 30 SSI 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 30 20 JAX 87 66 86 67 / 0 10 30 20 SGJ 85 67 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 89 64 89 65 / 10 10 50 20 OCF 90 65 89 66 / 10 0 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$