####018003996#### FXUS63 KAPX 031346 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 946 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today. - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain showers will continue to move west to east across northern Michigan this morning, exiting the area completely later this afternoon. Behind this, sunny skies will take hold through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s later today after rain chances end -- and may even warm into the low 70s for some areas along and south of M-55. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon. Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset. Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines. For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight. Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Period of low cigs expected this morning, along with widespread showers, as a cold front crosses the area. The rain will end from west to east today, beginning mid-morning, and cigs will improve shortly after. After an early mix of MVFR to IFR cigs, all sites will improve to VFR...MBL by late morning, APN by late afternoon. Winds become w to wnw and a touch gusty behind the front today. Lighter winds tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJC SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JZ ####018005157#### FXUS64 KLIX 031347 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 847 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Mosaic radar shows an MCS tracking east across the southern half of Louisiana. Reflectivity and lightning strikes have been steadily decreasing over the last couple hours, indicative of weakening. CAMs and global models in agreement on this solution. Even as it weakens, still expecting much of the local area to see rainfall as this feature spreads east. Therefore, have modified hourly rain chances to account for this. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The land of MCS's. These disturbances are going all over the lee side of the Rockies this morning and have been for a while. Another weakening one is moving up from southern TX this morning with another area that is starting up this morning over the NW gulf. The weakening one will help with providing outflows to this new area of development today. The old 850mb trough near the coast is still hanging tough although weak and this trough is somewhat mirrored at the sfc. This will provide an interface for this activity to begin developing along today and this should start this morning. This MCS type feature that develops eastward should collapse by late morning or around noon spreading a strong outflow in all directions over our area. This will help get other storms developing as well. But what it will do is move some moderate to strong winds(wake low) over the area again. At the moment, this looks to be in the neighborhood of up to 40mph weakening with time. Several variables do support the possibility of an isolated severe storm with this MCS today but they are not at alarming levels. CAPE values are not even close to being an issue so not a lot of volatility to take advantage of. The problem is cloud cover that should start to yield overcast skies by sunrise or after. There is no advective component of CAPE, so it would have to be through heating. Saturday on the other hand, will show a bit less activity for our area, this will be due to a cold front moving south from the high plains causing things to flow northward including our weak coastal troughiness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday will see this front to the north stall quick over Oklahoma and Arkansas with a sfc low and attendant front move along it dropping another trough(not a synoptic cold front as there is no air mass diff) into the gulf south. This will help gets sh/ts activated once again. This front gets sent back north Monday and remains well north through mid week. Another frontal system will orient along the plains states meridionally or at least roughly so. This is the same as what we have been seeing for the last month, so back to the same processes that were occurring. There is a hint that a strong arctic cold front may actually make it to the gulf coast by the end of next week. The word arctic is a bit misleading as temps would be greatly modified behind it this time of year and only drop highs from the upper 80s/low 90s back to low to mid 70s. But that is not the issue with a frontal system like this, this would be more of a problem with severe storms and flooding. That is if it even reaches the gulf coast. But since this is far out on the horizon, we will simply need to wait it out to see what changes or remains the same. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This will lift into VFR levels later this morning. There is enough of a chance for each terminal to get a TSRA or two today so this will be timed in the 12z taf set. There could be some low cigs again tonight mainly north but most should see MVFR to IFR again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Overall synoptic view will be an onshore flow with light winds. But today could see another MCS feature get started to the west and develop along the coast to the east before collapsing by late morning. This could cause some strong winds to move over the marine areas as another wake low feature forms today. There is no indication that this same type of feature will form Saturday so the light onshore flow should commence. This should be the case each day through mid next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 86 65 84 / 30 30 10 40 BTR 69 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 30 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 20 10 0 20 MSY 72 87 72 86 / 20 10 0 20 GPT 70 85 70 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 68 87 67 86 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE ####018006123#### FXUS61 KLWX 031349 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will cross the area today before sinking south Saturday. The boundary will return north as a warm front Sunday into Monday before secondary cold front approaches and stalls near the area for the middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains centered over the New England coast this morning while an upper-level ridge axis is slowly moving off to our east. An upper-level trough is building over the central CONUS. A backdoor cold front is currently located near the I-81 corridor into central Virginia this morning. The backdoor boundary will most likely stall out near the area through this afternoon before eventually pushing off to our south and west tonight as high pressure strengthens along the New England Coast. As convergence strengthens along the backdoor boundary this afternoon/evening, this will combine with peak heating and moisture advection (southerly flow aloft around periphery of the high), triggering some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands into the Shenandoah Valley. This activity will likely advect eastward into the metro areas late this evening and overnight. Low clouds and noticeably cooler conditions are expected overnight as the onshore flow continues behind the backdoor cold front. Lows will be in the 50s for most areas, with upper 40s in portions of northern Maryland. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A series of weak upper level perturbations will move across the region over the weekend gradually eroding the ridge pattern and allowing moisture to deepen, particularly during the Saturday night and Sunday time frame. Expect a gloomy and soggy weekend with off and on showers through Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts are likely to exceed one inch over the entire weekend. The lack of instability suggests that rainfall rates will be manageable. Also, the long duration of the event should allow for the ground to absorb much of the rain without causing much in the way of flooding problems. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front draped across the region Monday and Tuesday will bring unsettled weather to the forecast area. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible both days with atmospheric conditions peaking each afternoon and into the evening. Ample moisture aloft (PWATS 1.5in-2 in) will allow for heavy rainfall rates at times. Beginning Tuesday, the focus will be on the parent low pressure system as it begins to lift northward through the Great Lakes region. The cold front draped over the forecast area will begin lifting northward as a warm front while the associated cold front approaches from the Plains. From Tuesday through the remainder of the long term period, the forecast area will be in the warm sector allowing for an increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition to the severe weather threat, isolated instances of flooding are possible due to recent weekend rainfall possibly saturating soils. We will continue to monitor this system as is approaches. Temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday with overnight low temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. In the wake of the warm front, temperatures rise into the 80s for most Wednesday and Thursday. Those at higher elevations will stay in the upper 70s each day. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through 06Z Sat, then rapidly lowering cigs overnight to IFR/LIFR as onshore flow develops. Off and on rain/showers develop Saturday and persist through Sunday with prevailing IFR conditions persisting through early next week. Reduced CIGs and VSBYs are possible during showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected along with light winds 5-10 knots and gusting up to 15 knots. Winds will be out of the south each day. && .MARINE... SCA conditions will continue to develop into this afternoon, likely persisting through Monday as onshore flow strengthens. However, there may be a lull in the SCA winds later tonight into Saturday as the gradient briefly subsides behind a backdoor boundary. Rain/showers will be widespread both Saturday and Sunday, but the threat of thunder will remain low. Showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters both Monday and Tuesday as southerly winds stay below SCA criteria. As a warm front moves over the waters, winds increase to just below SCA criteria Tuesday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Onshore flow will strengthen today and persist through early next week. This will raise water levels and keep them elevated through early next week causing minor tidal flooding for many locations. Moderate tidal flooding is possible around Annapolis and St. Marys County with the high tide cycle late Saturday night, and again late Sunday night into Monday morning. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...AVS AVIATION...BJL/AVS/LFR MARINE...BJL/AVS/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL ####018005176#### FXUS62 KFFC 031349 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Mid-Morning Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast remains on track for this morning. Showers ongoing across northern and east central Georgia will continue to push eastward and out of our area, with a secondary wave of precipitation to enter from the AL/GA border early this afternoon. Lingering moisture and warmer-than-average temperatures will make for a balmy afternoon. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting the CWA through the short term period of the forecast. 500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow, one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any, measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon, helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday, bringing greater coverage of storms than today. With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support. A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May. The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring increasing rain chances again by the end of the period. RW && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Sct-bkn mid level clouds likely for much of the day, but could go sct for a brief period this afternoon. There should also be a decent cu deck between 040-060 for much of today and into the overnight hours. Models are moving in some MVFR cigs around 12Z SAT and there is some potential for a brief period of IFR. Not confident, so will leave the IFR sct. Patchy sprinkles should may continue through mid morning before a short dry period. Isold/scat afternoon shra/tsra possible. Winds will be SW during the day, and SE at night. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 78 62 84 / 30 60 60 60 Atlanta 66 79 64 84 / 30 70 50 60 Blairsville 61 73 59 78 / 50 70 60 70 Cartersville 63 79 61 84 / 30 60 40 60 Columbus 67 86 66 88 / 20 40 40 40 Gainesville 64 76 64 82 / 40 70 50 60 Macon 66 82 64 86 / 30 70 40 50 Rome 64 79 62 85 / 40 60 40 60 Peachtree City 64 82 63 85 / 30 60 50 50 Vidalia 68 82 66 86 / 40 40 40 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...NListemaa ####018006370#### FXUS64 KMRX 031349 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers continue to move through the southern Appalachians this morning. Very little if any lightning is occurring at this time with the showers, but expect as the day goes on we should see a bit more electrical activity going on. No major changes were made to the forecast outside of hourly PoP values to line up with radar trends this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: 1. Increasing chances of showers and storms this morning through the evening, with a potential lull in activity overnight. 2. While severe weather is not expected, a few instances of small hail, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and locally heavy downpours are possible this afternoon. Discussion: Upper level disturbances will bring increasing chances of showers and storms to the forecast area today. Regional mosaic radar already depicts a rain shield moving into western Kentucky, central Tennessee, and eastern Mississippi this morning. Precipitation chances will gradually increase across our forecast area through the morning hours, with just general rain showers as the predominant weather type. As we transition into the afternoon hours, hi-resolution models suggest development of MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range, which will lead to increasing chances of thunder. A weak shear profile and mid level lapse rates struggling to reach 6C/km should keep any storms from reaching severe levels, although, any stronger storm could lead to locally gusty winds up to 40mph and pea-size hail. PWAT values will generally approach near 1.4 inches. This is around the 90th percentile based on sounding climatology out of BNA. As such, we cannot totally rule out some isolated flooding concerns with any slow moving or training convection this afternoon. Thankfully, below normal rainfall over the last month has allowed for 1 hr FFGs of 1.8-2.3" across the forecast area, really minimizing this threat. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall covers areas generally along and west of I-75 - where the better chance for relatively more effective convection exists. Temperatures will typically be near normal. Ensemble guidance suggest we may see a window of little to no activity during the late evening/overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: 1. An unsettled pattern is expected through the extended period with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. More organized convection is possible by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. 2. Temperatures will be generally above normal, especially next week. Saturday through Monday At the start of the period, a fairly weak upper-level flow pattern will be in place with a shortwave moving in from the west. With broad moisture and surface heating, Saturday will consist of scattered to numerous convection throughout the day. Based on the weak flow, the convection will be thermodynamically-driven as very minimal shear will be present. Overall, instability will be fairly typical of the summer, i.e. near 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. PWATs will also be 1.4 inches or higher, which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year. With these conditions, some stronger storms with gusty downburst winds are possible, in addition to locally heavy rainfall rates. Thankfully, fairly dry conditions, including low-end drought, will keep any flooding concerns very localized. Heading towards Sunday, gradual height rises are expected with embedded shortwave energy and similar thermodynamic conditions. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures than on Saturday with additional showers and storms expected. A closed upper low will also be noted to our west and will approach towards Monday. This may lead to slightly better coverage than on Sunday, but the overall impact will be the same. Tuesday through Thursday The unsettled pattern will continue into the middle of the week with continued embedded shortwave, broad moisture, and surface heating on Tuesday. By Wednesday to Thursday, however, a more dynamic pattern is anticipated with the upper jet (in excess of 100 kts) dipping further south. Upper-level divergence will help to strengthen the 850mb, possibly to in excess of 40 kts. A surface front will also slowly drift southward. While discrepancies still exist, these indications suggest an environment with potentially better thermodynamics and deep-layer shear sufficient for more organized convection than in the earlier part of the extended period. At this time, low probability HWO wording will be kept to encompass the multiple rounds of convection and potential locally heavy rainfall. However, the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe will be something to watch for more organized and/or robust convection. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will be predominant through the TAF cycle, with mid to low level BKN/OVC clouds increasing through the morning into the afternoon. Continue to expect increasing chances for a few thunderstorms by the afternoon. Rain chances increase late morning to mid-day at TRI but have kept thunder omitted. Recent hi- resolution guidance suggest by late Friday evening activity becomes more isolated so have transitioned the mention of showers and storms to vicinity. Development of MVFR cigs is possible early Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 65 79 64 / 50 50 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 63 78 63 / 70 50 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 63 78 62 / 80 50 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 61 76 60 / 60 50 80 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...KRS ####018008800#### FXUS63 KIND 031349 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damp and mild today, with scattered showers through late day. - Potential for fog late tonight. - Multiple chances for showers and storms throughout most of the forecast period, with continued above normal temperatures. - Potential for severe weather during the middle of next week, highest chances Tuesday evening and Wednesday night. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Steadier and more widespread rainfall has already shifted into southeast Indiana this morning with scattered light showers trailing back northwest into the forecast area. 1330Z temperatures were in the mid and upper 60s with cloudy skies across central Indiana. The forecast remains in very good shape going forward for the rest of the day. Remnant frontal boundary overlaid across the forecast area this morning with the primary weak surface wave already having shifted east into Ohio. Moisture will remain plentiful into the afternoon with at least some increase in instability courtesy of diurnal heating despite cloud coverage remaining relatively high. However with little to no BL shear and just weak forcing aloft...any convection that redevelops this afternoon will remain scattered and disorganized. Will maintain pops all afternoon with a primary focus across the southeast half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the deepest moisture. Drier air will advect into the region from the northwest late today and with clearing skies developing over the northwest half of the forecast area into this evening as a high pressure ridge passes by to the north. Highs this afternoon will rise into the 70s. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A fairly ordinary damp spring day is expected across central Indiana today, with weak surface low pressure to our northwest pushing a frontal boundary through the region as a modest upper level disturbance slides through the area. Despite the presence of a fairly moist airmass, with precipitable water values toward the upper end of climatology, modest forcing and what should be very weak destabilization given fairly widespread cloud cover throughout the morning and into the afternoon will limit intensity of showers and coverage of thunderstorms, though a slight uptick in the latter may be seen along the boundary this afternoon if some clearing can occur. Very weak deep layer shear will limit the intensity of these storms even in the presence of some slightly more modest instability. Total rainfall across the area through tonight should be light, around a third of an inch or less. Fairly good dry advection throughout much of the column will bring an end to any lingering showers and storms during the evening hours, with most of the area dry throughout tonight. Depending on the degree of lingering high cloud cover, the damp ground may promote fog development late tonight, and will have to keep an eye out for dense fog if more significant clearing occurs. Widespread clouds and precip, especially early in the day, will limit insolation and keep highs today no warmer than about the mid 70s, with lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday Through Sunday. For much of the long term, the Ohio Valley will be well positioned within an unstable atmosphere, leading to unsettled weather and higher uncertainty than usual. For Saturday, the surface moisture will recover quickly behind a weak cold front with steady low to mid level lapse rates leading to widespread 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. There will not be much in the way of forcing given the short wave still well off to the east, but weak subtle waves from upstream convection should be enough for isolated to scattered thunderstorms (With a focus over S. IN) for much of Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe weather looks unlikely for Saturday (Given negligible dynamics), but cannot be ruled due to a shallow midlevel dry layer and a deep instability profile. This should allow a few isolated thunderstorm cores to reach >25kft, of which could produce small hail and strong wind gusts. A boundary out ahead of the aforementioned wave will progress eastward throughout the day Saturday, leading to a continued threat for convection on Saturday night. This boundary is expected to initiate an MCS over IA/IL during the day on Saturday, but mid to upper level dynamics will be weak, and will make eastward propagation more challenging, especially as diurnal temperature inversions develop Saturday night. With that said, if updrafts can sustain themselves into western Indiana, an isolated severe threat (although unlikely) is possible Saturday evening. Regardless, this boundary should pass throughout Saturday night, with showers/thunderstorms weakening as they progress across the state. Barring a few lingering showers Sunday morning, the remainder of the day should be quiet with highs in the mid 70s. Monday Through Thursday. By early next week, another shortwave is expected to develop within the subtropical jet and push E/N into the Ohio Valley. High pressure in the wake of the previous system could hinder northward progression of the wave, creating some uncertainty if showers and thunderstorms will reach this far north on Monday. Given the short period of potential rainfall, QPF isnt expected to be high, but long range soundings are hinting at rather efficient rain producers leading to a marginal concern for flooding. Details are still very hazy at this point, leading to low confidence in any hazards for Monday The next round of unsettled weather will push into the region shortly after, with another trough, albeit deeper, over the Inter- Mountain West by Tuesday. This time around, a more organized low pressure system is expected to develop, rapidly deepening as it reaches the Great Plains. As the low develops, convergence east of the low should create a weak warm-frontal region and associated isentropic ascent. This lift is expected to reach the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley sometime Monday night into Tuesday, leading to showers and some elevated thunderstorms. Following this warm front passage, central Indiana will be within a moderately unstable environment with a mid and upper level jet aloft. Although uncertainty is high on timing and specifics, this should lead to a few rounds of more organized convection Tuesday through Thursday, including a threat for severe convection. Greatest chances for severe weather looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The thunderstorm and severe threat should decrease late week as AVA and modest CAA returns leading to high pressure and a drier overall airmass. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Impacts: - Scattered showers early in the period, with occasional MVFR conditions mid morning into early afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms possible, but too uncertain for inclusion. - Fog possible very late in the period, depending upon how much cloud cover lingers tonight. Discussion: Scattered showers have overspread much of the area this morning. This activity will continue much of the morning into early afternoon, before lessening from west to east as a front moves through the area. Some occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in these showers, though not as widespread as previous expectations. Will carry TEMPO MVFR conditions at all sites but LAF. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but too low probability/uncertain for inclusion in the TAFs. Winds will be variable or westerly early on, becoming more northerly and then northeasterly later in the period, 10KT or less throughout. Depending upon the character of the mid and high cloud cover that will linger tonight, and the degree of clearing, some fog will be possible, but will not mention at this time. If clearing is substantial, wet ground from the rainfall may promote patchy dense fog late tonight into Saturday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Ryan SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...Updike AVIATION...Nield