####018009129#### FXUS62 KMHX 031425 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1025 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM Friday...Fog has lifted this morning, with 10SM visibilities through the CWA. Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result. Also bumped high temps for OBX to the mid to upper 70s (near 80 for NOBX) with light winds allowing minimal marine influence. With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Friday...Fog that developed overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off. Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 1000 AM Friday...no major changes with this update. Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow). Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/... As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 1000 AM Friday...Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result. MWS is likely to be issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind the front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight winds will diminish due to a loss of heating. Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Friday...Sub- SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt. Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB/RJ ####018006012#### FXUS61 KBTV 031426 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1026 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1017 AM EDT Friday...Minimal changes needed to the forecast this morning. Low stratus continues to erode across the region, with sunshine and blue skies in some spots. Temperatures continue to warm, but a little slower than initially forecast where the stratus has lingered. Overall, the forecast is on track and today is shaping up to be a beautiful end to the work week. Previous Discussion...The region is currently between a shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward. Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal averages into the upper 60s to low 70s. The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...A low cloud deck is present over the region and every terminal has low ceilings causing either MVFR or IFR conditions. Fog and mist are also present at some of the terminals. The fog should dissipate quickly this morning but it may take a couple more hours for the low cloud deck to lift and scour out. However, all terminals should be VFR by the afternoon. VFR conditions will persist well into tonight at all terminals as wind should prevent any fog formation. Ceilings will drop again tonight which may cause SLK or MSS to lower into MVFR by Saturday morning. Winds will be relatively light during this period, varying from southerly to calm and variable. LLWS is not a concern. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Myskowski ####018008353#### FXUS62 KGSP 031428 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1028 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure moves off the Carolina coast as a front approaches from the west then stalls over our region for the weekend. This front will result in periodic thunderstorms and showers starting today and lingering through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Friday: Height falls will impact the East through the near term, with associated slow-moving/zonally-oriented frontal zone expected to sag toward our forecast area later today into tonight. Deep layer lift...albeit relatively weak...will approach the CWA late today into tonight, while SW flow will result in increasing levels of moisture, with forecast soundings indicating precipitable waters will be in the ~90th percentile category for the day. Therefore, conditions will become increasingly favorable for convective development as the day progresses. Scattered showers are moving into the mountains west of the French Broad and the Upper Savannah River valley, but are dissipating as they try to move east of there. Have kept PoP limited to these locations this morning but ramp PoP back up across the area through the afternoon. Otherwise, high and mid level clouds will continue to increase through the day...resulting in cooler conditions than on Thursday, while mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor. As such, surface-based instability will be quite tame at 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon. Meanwhile, wind shear parameters will be very unremarkable, with 0-6km bulk shear ~20 kts. So, the conditional probability of severe storms is about as close to 0 as it gets. There could be locally heavy rainfall with deeper cells and/or if an area of training cells manages to materialize. However, dry antecedent conditions should preclude a notable excessive rainfall threat. While a general decrease in coverage and intensity of convection is expected this evening, high moisture content combined with continued modest lift is expected to result in scattered convection (primarily showers) persisting well into the overnight, with perhaps a locally heavy rainfall event or two possible. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above climo through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday: Upper ridging will remain over the East Coast on Saturday before gradually pushing east into the western Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. At the sfc the forecast area will be caught in-between two sfc highs (one over New England/SE Canada and one over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest) as a cold front slowly approaches out of the west. The front should remain north and west of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night. This messy pattern will lead to 850 mb S/SW'ly flow allowing for an influx of Gulf moisture across Southeast through the weekend, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Went with likely to categorical PoPs Saturday through early Sunday evening and chance PoPs Sunday night. With PWATs expected to climb well above climo (~1.6 inches east of the mtns and ~1.3 inches across the mtns) and weak shear (~10-15 kts) leading to slow storm motion, heavy rainfall will accompany shower and thunderstorm activity. However, the overall threat for flash flooding looks to remain low due to dry antecedent conditions. Nuisance flooding cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for areas that see heavy rainfall repeatedly track over the same locations. SBCAPE looks to range from ~700-1500 J/kg each afternoon per the HRRR, GFS, Canadian and ECMWF. The NAM and NAMNest are much more bullish regarding SBCAPE through the weekend but this looks overdone as widespread cloud cover from the influx of Gulf moisture should limit destabilization somewhat. Thus, the severe potential looks rather low through the weekend thanks to the low wind shear and increased cloud cover. The SPC Day 2 and 3 Severe Weather Outlooks have the GSP forecast area in a general thunder risk which looks reasonable at this time. However, a few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for any areas that see breaks in cloud cover. Highs on Saturday will end up near climo to a few degrees below climo thanks to SSE'ly sfc winds, convection and cloud cover. Highs on Sunday will climb to around 3-5 degrees above climo thanks to sfc winds turning more S/SSW. Lows through the short term will end up around 10-13 degrees above climo thanks to clouds limiting radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday: The workweek will kick off similar to the weekend as the aforementioned cold front remains stalled over the Lower Midwest/Ohio Valley region. This will allow for another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Despite SBCAPE looking slightly higher on Monday compared to the weekend, widespread cloud cover and weak shear should linger, allowing the severe weather threat to remain low. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday's, ending up around 3-5 degrees above climo. Lows Monday night will remain around 10-12 degrees above climo thanks to some lingering cloud cover. Drier conditions may return for most of the forecast area, with the exception of the NC/TN border, Tuesday through early Thursday as the stalled front gradually lifts northward across the Ohio Valley/eastern Great Lakes region. Convective chances increase again late Thursday into Friday as an upper low approaches out of the northwest. Highs should climb into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday through Friday, which is around 7- 12 degrees above climo. Lows should remain around 10-12 degrees above climo through the long term. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the Terminal Forecast Area through the day, with steadily increasing high/mid clouds expected. An upper level disturbance and associated moisture plume will approach the area throughout the day, allowing for expansion of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. However, scattered showers are already amassing just upstream of the area across north GA and east TN. Some of these initial SHRA could brush past the upstate SC terminals and KAVL later this morning, but the better chances should hold off until this afternoon. Scattered coverage of convection is expected this pm...at least across the western half of the area...warranting Prob30s for -TSRA at most sites during the afternoon/early evening. Current indications are that instability will decrease toward the east, so thunder is omitted from the KCLT TAF for the time being. While some diminishment of convective coverage is expected this evening...showers will remain possible well into the overnight hours/early Saturday. A consensus of high resolution guidance suggests another period of scattered showers circa 12Z Sat, so most TAFs receive another Prob30 (for SHRA) during that time frame. Chances for restrictions in fog/stratus will also increase toward sunrise Sat, and MVFR conditions are included at all sites. Winds will generally be calm or light/variable early this morning, becoming SW at 5-10 kts by afternoon. Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through early next week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JDL ####018004938#### FXUS61 KCAR 031429 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1029 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area today into Saturday. An occluded front will approach Saturday night, cross the area Sunday, then exit east of the area Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... High pressure centered north of Maine will ridge south across the region today. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will move south across the forecast area in advance of an approaching ridge. With diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back across the region from the Maritimes, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area today. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... We will remain in a narrow ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft tonight. Some patchy stratocumulus will linger across the area with some isolated areas of fog in southern areas. Otherwise, tonight will be tranquil and dry with low near 40. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst in that Sat and Sat Ngt look to be fair with intervals of cldnss as weak sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving arnd a tenth of an inch with lcly 0.15 to 0.20 inches possible, warranting max PoPs in the likely range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in reasonable agreement that a break in shwr activity ovr our FA will occur from mid Morn til Erly Aftn, following the passage of a weakening warm occlusion and ahead of fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg this tm frame allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns. In the meantime, temps abv 700mb will begin falling even ahead of the secondary cold front durg the Aftn, with this vertical differential htg resulting in sct shwrs and even possible thunderstorms msly Nrn/Cntrl areas ahead and alg the secondary cold front mid to late Mon Aftn. Shwrs will move E and dissipate behind the cold front Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr possible ovr Nrn areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling. Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are most likely going to impact our FA Wed Ngt into Thu, but longer range models are not in good agreement on rnfl totals durg this tm frame, with the 00z dtmnstc GFS the greatest and the corresponding ECMWF much lighter, subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near normal for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR ceilings through the remainder of the morning. Otherwise, VFR today through early tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots today, except becoming variable along the Downeast coast this afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat - Sun...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds. Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs. Lgt Winds. Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day. Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norcross/VJN Marine...Norcross/VJN