####018004666#### FXUS63 KABR 031525 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1025 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected over south central to northeastern SD and western MN this afternoon through tonight. A quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain southeast of a line from Lyman to Traverse county. - A much larger system looks to affect the region on Monday, with widespread moderate rainfall. The threat for severe weather still appears low at this time (higher across NE/KS/OK), but we will continue to monitor trends. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Beginning to see some rain shower activity work its way over the southwestern part of the CWA this morning, and it still looks on track to continue to spread to the northeast, with portions of far northeastern and east central South Dakota, as well as west central Minnesota likely to see the higher rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight. Will continue to monitor for the chance for thunderstorms across the southern part of the CWA, which would result in some areas seeing higher rainfall amounts. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper trough will deepen and trail into South Dakota by afternoon. At the same time, a warm front will extend into southeast SD off a Colorado low. The moisture tongue to the north of the front combined with shortwave energy in the trough could create a set up for a southwest to northeast oriented band of rain stretching from Lyman county to Traverse county. Areas southeast of the line have the potential for up to an inch of rain. Deterministic CAMs are higher on the QPF than current WPC guidance, but generally expect over a quarter of an inch in the band with as much as 0.75" locally. As always with any banded precip, the exact location of the band may shift. However, it looks like north central SD should remain dry. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal today in the trough and rain. High pressure builds in on Saturday bringing drier weather, but the upper trough will continue to pull in below normal temps with highs maxing out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday evening we start the long term with an upper level ridge over the area. This will stay in place through Monday morning. Monday afternoon/evening an upper level low moves into the region. Clusters are all pretty close with placement somewhere in the MT/ND/SD area. Things get a little complicated after that as deterministic models and ensembles show a cut off high to the north of this low and a rex block pattern starts to emerge keeping the low circulating over the region for a few days, through the end of the period, actually. Rain chances start to move in Monday afternoon and continue, with intermittent reductions in probability, through the end of the period. Looking at NAEFS percentiles, Monday looks to be the wettest with PWAT values in the 97.5 percentile (mainly west river). NBM is showing 55 to 65 percent chances of more than a half inch of rain in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning across most of the area. Chances of more than a quarter of an inch in 24 hours are limited for the rest of the period. Overall, from Monday through the end of the period, POPs only drop below 20 percent in isolated areas and for short periods of time. Strong storms do not look likely at this time. Along with a rather wet outlook, temperatures starting Tuesday will be around to 10 degrees below average through the end of the period. Before we get there, though, Sunday and Monday are expected to have high temperatures around to about 5 degrees above average due to ridging and strong WAA. Winds Sunday and Monday are expected to be quite strong. Gusts Sunday could be as high as 40 mph, perhaps stronger (especially west river) and around 35 mph on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Rain will move into the region this afternoon and affect KPIR and KATY with MVFR cigs and vsby. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise ####018006322#### FXUS61 KOKX 031526 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds down along the New England coast and into the area, where it will remain nearly stationary into Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday. The boundary returns as a warm front on Wednesday, with an associated cold front moving through Thursday. A developing area of low pressure may then approach the region from the west late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Springtime in the Northeast, lots of low clouds, fog, and significant variability in temps. For today, expect the low clouds to erode through early afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies areawide. Temperatures will likely need some fine tuning through the day based on how quickly cloud cover decreases. Regardless, an easterly flow and cooler airmass will keep inland locations much cooler today. Inland areas farthest away from the cool easterly flow will end up with the warmest temperatures this afternoon - up around 70. 60s otherwise for most other spots. Partly to mostly cloudy, but dry conditions for tonight with lows in the low 50s in the city and 45-50 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move. It'll be to our east Sunday morning and continue its slow path east through Sunday night. This will help keep us dry Saturday morning as moisture ahead of an approaching cold front runs into the ridge. Will leave in low chances of a shower west of the Hudson River for Saturday afternoon as per qpf output for a couple of the models as well as NBM, but thinking anything that falls will be relatively brief and light. Rain chances then slowly increase west to east through Saturday night before showers become likely during Sunday into Sunday night. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday afternoon and night with some elevated CAPE around. Forecast PWATS are not too concerning, so no hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this system. NBM temperatures looked good for the short term period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A rather active period next week, though not necessarily a washout, with a slow moving front nearby and waves of low pressure helping instigate periodic chances for precipitation into late next week. Cold front moves through early Monday, leaving weak high pressure to nose in from the north. The front stalls over the Mid-Atlantic as it runs into ridging, eventually returning as a warm front late Tuesday or Wednesday. It's possible a weak wave of low pressure develops along the boundary and passes just south of the region as it tracks offshore Monday night into Tuesday, but global guidance is mixed at this stage in development and placement of the low. As it appears now, best chances of seeing any impacts are along the coast and points south. A relatively quiet afternoon expected Tuesday before PoPs increase once again Tuesday night as the front attempts to lift north toward the region. The region likely sits in the warm sector Wednesday, and soundings hint at convective development ahead of the approaching cold front that could lead to thunderstorms in parts of the region Wed afternoon or evening. A brief dry out behind the fropa before another wave of low pressure attempts to develop as a shortwave swings east into late week, bringing additional chances of rain. Temperatures should average above normal through Thursday, generally in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline. National blended guidance was generally followed for this update, with some subtle adjustments to cap PoPs and bump max Ts a few degrees Mon/Tue. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure builds in through the day. MVFR cigs continue for all terminals except KSWF. Gradual improvement to VFR expected everywhere after 17Z. Cigs may fall once again into early Sat AM with potential stratus development, though confidence is too low to prevail at this time. An E/NE flow with speeds around 10 kt much of the day. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible thru mid morning before abating. Winds veer to the E/SE in the afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push. A general SE flow on Saturday with speeds at or under 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional NE gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Timing of wind shift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off by a couple of hours. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight. Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt. Monday...VFR. Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Buoy 44025 and 44065 reporting marginal SCA seas with sea round 5 ft and gusts generally just under 25 kt. This should be short lived with a weakening pressure gradient, thus diminishing winds through tonight. Otherwise, winds and seas below SCA criteria through the weekend. Winds then increase a little on Sunday well ahead of a cold front. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub advisory conditions across the waters through mid next week. && .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DR NEAR TERM...JC/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...JP/DR MARINE...JC/DR HYDROLOGY...JC/DR ####018006926#### FXUS61 KRLX 031527 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1127 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1123 AM Friday... Satellite and radar imagery show clouds and showers moving slowly east northeast across the Mid OH valley and portions of WV late this afternoon. Expect this activity to increase in intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening. Previous forecast remains on track. As of 640 AM Friday... Freshened up PoPs to account for isolated showers that are encroaching upon the western fringe of the CWA earlier than anticipated. No other changes have been made at this time. As of 220 AM Friday... Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air, transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front, should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during the day. Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as moderate instability develops within the warm and moist environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and storm activity within the CWA overnight. Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry conditions leading up to today. Tonight's temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the 50s to 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Active weather will span into the weekend as a cold front halts overhead and washes out. Warm and humid conditions festering over the area, coupled with the front and mid-level shortwave ripples, will yield showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Convection timing will be at its highest during peak heating hours in the afternoon, but retaining a slight chance for storms even beyond sunset late Saturday night. Upper level troughing progressing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday will contribute to renewed potential for showers and storms. Additional downpours will continue to chip away at flash flood guidance, and may begin to impose local water concerns. Antecedently dry soil conditions and blossoming vegetation should help mitigate widespread concern. More of the same on Monday, despite potential to see a brief lull in activity Sunday night, as additional support arrives from a southern stream disturbance. Daytime heating, albeit a few degrees cooler than previous few days, will once again promote increased potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially across the southern half of the forecast area and up along the spine of the Appalachians. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday... Unsettled weather prevails through much of the work week with daily chances of showers and storms. A progressive upper level pattern will continue to churn shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians during the extended period. The focus of precipitation falls over us during this period of time under the guise of a stalled frontal boundary overhead. Ample precipitable water values on the order of 1.5 to 1.8 inches nestled over the region will continue to promote heavy downpours with this activity, further aggravating the threat for flooding for midweek and beyond. 00Z GFS run continues to imply a tightened pressure gradient settling over the area as the upper level jet noses into the Great Lakes region. This may promote breezy to occasionally strong wind gusts for Wednesday and into the end of the valid forecast period. Other global models aren't as keen with the placement of the upper jet and such a tightened low level gradient. Temperatures rise back into the 80s down in the lowlands for Tuesday through Thursday, but possibly cooling off by the end of the work week behind a cold front. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 640 AM Friday... Early morning fog will dissipate early in the TAF period, then showers and thunderstorms that are currently approaching from the west are expected to spread across the area as a front nears during the day. Activity should then be sustained into tonight due to a passing disturbance. VFR ceilings are expected to gradually descend to low-end VFR as the day progresses and then further degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight. Periodic restrictions to visibility will also be possible within any heavier showers or storms later today and tonight. 5-10kt southwest winds are expected much of the day, followed by light and variable winds for tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the forecast. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in showers/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB