####018006086#### FXUS61 KRLX 031530 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1130 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1123 AM Friday... Satellite and radar imagery show clouds and showers moving slowly east northeast across the Mid OH valley and portions of WV late this afternoon. Expect this activity to increase in intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening. Previous forecast remains on track. As of 640 AM Friday... Freshened up PoPs to account for isolated showers that are encroaching upon the western fringe of the CWA earlier than anticipated. No other changes have been made at this time. As of 220 AM Friday... Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air, transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front, should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during the day. Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as moderate instability develops within the warm and moist environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and storm activity within the CWA overnight. Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry conditions leading up to today. Tonight's temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the 50s to 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday... More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday... The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes. Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 640 AM Friday... Early morning fog will dissipate early in the TAF period, then showers and thunderstorms that are currently approaching from the west are expected to spread across the area as a front nears during the day. Activity should then be sustained into tonight due to a passing disturbance. VFR ceilings are expected to gradually descend to low-end VFR as the day progresses and then further degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight. Periodic restrictions to visibility will also be possible within any heavier showers or storms later today and tonight. 5-10kt southwest winds are expected much of the day, followed by light and variable winds for tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the forecast. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in showers/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JLB ####018003999#### FXUS63 KMKX 031533 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1033 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, followed by additional precipitation chances for the middle portions of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1032 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low clouds cleared out of southeast WI and we have sunny skies. Drier air is moving in and dewpoints are dropping into the lower 40s. With high pressure moving in and lighter winds, a lake breeze is already getting established. This will move inland through the afternoon as the general flow becomes easterly. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today and Tonight: Drier airmass moves into southern Wisconsin today. Clouds will hold on over eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning, but expect to give way to mostly sunny skies by late this morning and afternoon. Generally clear skies are expected for tonight. Light winds also become established through tonight with weak surface high pressure. KPL && .LONG TERM... Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday through Thursday: Models remain in fairly good agreement for this weekend and Monday. Next mid level shortwave trough still expected to impact southern Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon. It is a quick mover, but it should provide lift over the area through early Saturday evening. Thinking enough daytime heating and surface moisture convergence will lead to at least scattered thunderstorm coverage in this time range. Will mention this in our messaging, but not sure all parameters are there for anything more than a few strong thunderstorms. Southern Wisconsin then gets another cold frontal passage in the early to mid evening hours on Saturday. More dry air behind this front for clearing and cooler temperatures Saturday night. Rising heights aloft for Sunday into Monday for dry and warm conditions across the forecast area. The unsettled part of this forecast looks to be Tuesday through Thursday with a broad upper level trough setting up over the northern plains. Energy rotates around this trough into the great lakes beginning on Tuesday. Lower and mid level moisture will be in place for the potential of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. Will continue to watch timing of this potential event. The mid-week pattern should keep temperatures near or slightly below normal on Wednesday and Thursday with at least some showers and thunderstorms persisting across southern Wisconsin. KPL && .AVIATION... Issued 1032 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low clouds moved out and clear skies will prevail through Saturday morning. A lake breeze is already getting established, so the wind shift at MKE may be earlier than 18Z. Winds will be light and become more easterly later this afternoon through tonight. A line of storms is possible Saturday afternoon. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers exit Lake Michigan this morning. High pressure of 30.1 inches and lighter winds are expected later this afternoon and tonight. Some low level moisture returns on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This front will move across Lake Michigan on Saturday evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches again moves into the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to breezy across Lake Michigan through the upcoming weekend. KPL && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee