####018004904#### FXUS61 KCAR 031601 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1201 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area today into Saturday. An occluded front will approach Saturday night, cross the area Sunday, then exit east of the area Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... High pressure centered north of Maine will ridge south across the region today. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will move south across the forecast area in advance of an approaching ridge. With diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back across the region from the Maritimes, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area this afternoon. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... We will remain in a narrow ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft tonight. Some patchy stratocumulus will linger across the area with some isolated areas of fog in southern areas. Otherwise, tonight will be tranquil and dry with low near 40. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst in that Sat and Sat Ngt look to be fair with intervals of cldnss as weak sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving arnd a tenth of an inch with lcly 0.15 to 0.20 inches possible, warranting max PoPs in the likely range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in reasonable agreement that a break in shwr activity ovr our FA will occur from mid Morn til Erly Aftn, following the passage of a weakening warm occlusion and ahead of fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg this tm frame allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns. In the meantime, temps abv 700mb will begin falling even ahead of the secondary cold front durg the Aftn, with this vertical differential htg resulting in sct shwrs and even possible thunderstorms msly Nrn/Cntrl areas ahead and alg the secondary cold front mid to late Mon Aftn. Shwrs will move E and dissipate behind the cold front Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr possible ovr Nrn areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling. Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are most likely going to impact our FA Wed Ngt into Thu, but longer range models are not in good agreement on rnfl totals durg this tm frame, with the 00z dtmnstc GFS the greatest and the corresponding ECMWF much lighter, subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near normal for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected this afternoon through early tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, except becoming variable along the Downeast coast. Light and variable winds tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat - Sun...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds. Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs. Lgt Winds. Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day. Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norcross/VJN Marine...Norcross/VJN