####018005500#### FXUS66 KSEW 031619 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 919 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A pattern change is on track for today, in which warm and dry conditions will transition to a cooler and wetter pattern as a deep trough digs into the region. Precipitation and below- normal temperatures will continue into mid-week next week before a potential return to drier and warmer weather. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Rain is approaching the coast this morning then pushing inland this afternoon/evening (mainly after 00z in the interior). Until then, mild, with highs in the interior reaching the mid to upper 60s with a few low 70s in the Cascade foothills. 33 Previous discussion...High pressure will remain in place across western Washington for much of the morning as a deep low pressure system drops southward along the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures ahead of an incoming warm front will continue to warm up from yesterday, with some areas east of the Puget Sound surpassing 70 degrees. A front will approach the coast early this morning and push inland throughout the afternoon, draping widespread rainfall across the region with the exception of snowfall above 6000 ft. The track of this low pressure system is forecast to dive southwards towards California, so the bulk of the incoming moisture will be focused over the Olympic Peninsula and southwest Washington. The low will meander inland over the weekend, injecting continual moisture into western Washington. Showers, cooler conditions, and periods of breezy winds will continue through the weekend, with highs in the 50s across the lowlands. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Onshore flow will maintain cooler temperatures heading into next week as moist westerly flow maintains shower activity across the region. A series of weak fronts will cross the region on Monday and Tuesday, with snow levels slowly lowering to below pass level by Tuesday. Any snow accumulations through the Cascade passes will be light, with less than an inch carried by ensembles. A warm front will lift across western Washington mid-week as a ridge settles into the region, allowing for conditions to dry out and warm up to near-normal. While some uncertainty remains on how long the warmer and drier conditions will stick around, models suggest some potential for these conditions to continue into next weekend. Lindeman && .AVIATION...Winds aloft will become southwesterly today as an upper ridge pushes inland and an upper level trough moves into the region. Mostly clear skies across western Washington early this morning, with satellite showing some mid to high cloud cover starting to approach the coast ahead of the next frontal system. Surface winds have shifted back to the south-southeast for most terminals this morning and can expect winds to become gusty at times along portions of the coast this afternoon. Overall conditions are VFR this morning and expect this trend to continue for most terminals through much of the day today. Rain ahead of the front looks to approach the coast between 20-23Z, with cigs for coastal terminals looking to gradually decrease to MVFR in the evening (likely between 03-06Z). Rain then looks to slowly make its way into the interior later this afternoon into this evening, with areas north of Seattle likely not seeing much in the way of rain until late tonight into Saturday. Cigs look to slowly lower to more widespread MVFR across the interior by late tonight into early Saturday morning. KSEA...VFR conditions through much of the day today, with high clouds already streaming in overhead as the next front approaches. More widespread MVFR cigs look to hold off until late tonight into early Saturday. Southeasterly winds persisting at 3-7 kt this morning will pick up to 8-10 kt and shift southwesterly by this afternoon. Rain showers expected to move into the terminal late this afternoon into this evening (00-03Z), and will only be showery in nature. 14/Maz && .MARINE...Weak high pressure over the area waters early this morning will make way for the next frontal system moving into the waters today into Saturday. Southerly winds will increase across the outer coastal waters this morning and persist at small craft strength through this evening. Several westerly pushes are expected along the Strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend into early next week, likely yielding additional headlines at times. Another system looks to arrive in the region late Sunday into Monday. High pressure then looks to build over the northeastern Pacific on Tuesday. Seas across the coastal waters will generally hover between 3-6 ft through Friday, before increasing towards 6-8 ft over the weekend. Seas then look to build and approach 9-11 ft Monday night into Tuesday. 14 && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$ ####018007941#### FXUS66 KLOX 031620 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 920 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...03/909 AM. A cooling trend will begin today with a deepening marine layer through the weekend. A storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend with a chance for light precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. Night and morning low clouds and fog will struggle to clear at the coast today, then spread back inland tonight. A warming and drying trend will develop next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/919 AM. ***UPDATE*** The marine layer has deepened to around 3500 feet across the LA Basin, sloping down to around 1000 feet along the Central Coast. The eddy is a little weaker than yesterday but onshore flow is stronger and it will take longer to clear the stratus today and through the weekend. Still looks like a high chance of rain along the Central Coast Saturday afternoon (around a quarter inch) as a late season storm moves into northern California, but mostly just brushes by our area. Farther south, rain chances will be Saturday night into early Sunday and lighter, mostly under a tenth of an inch. And like this morning some areas will see morning drizzle both Saturday and Sunday. With the storm exiting to the east Sunday and the flow shifting to the west/northwest there should be much better clearing in most areas. ***From Previous Discussion*** The storm system, over the Gulf of Alaska this morning, will dig south into northern California through Saturday night, brushing the area to the north. A cold frontal boundary will drop south into the region on Saturday, bringing rain to much of the area. PoPs have been nudged higher in the latest forecast, going higher than NBM solutions. All of the ensemble members have light precipitation developing for areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the mountains, and across eastern Los Angeles County. The forecast is little more questionable for southern Santa Barbara County, Ventura County, and western Los Angeles County. The forecast trends wetter as deterministic solutions are starting to trend more southwest to west with the low-level flow pattern. The forecast trends more toward the deterministic solutions south of Point Conception, buying into the model trends. Model tabular forecast output suggests a high- to- likely chance of rain for areas north of Point Conception, and moderate-to-high chance for areas southwest of Point Conception. There is a moderate chance that southern Santa Barbara County, Ventura County, and western Los Angeles County could end up being in a rain shadow effect as downsloping occurs from the Transverse Ranges. Rainfall amounts will likely range from a quarter inch or less, except a quarter to half inch across northwestern San Luis Obispo County. Amounts will be highest for the northern portion of the area and along the northern slopes of the mountains. Rainfall will only amount to a few hundredths at most for most coastal and valley areas south of Point Conception. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop across many coastal areas, into the Santa Ynez Valley, across southern Santa Barbara, up into the Interstate 5 Corridor, and down into the Antelope Valley. EPS solutions indicate good agreement across the area for the potential for wind advisory, but a handful of solutions indicate a gust potential over 55 mph at KSDB. This will need to be monitored as we get closer as wind gusts have been trending generally higher with each run. A colder air mass will spread into the area between Saturday and Sunday night with the cold front. Temperatures during this stretch trend colder than NBM values, and Sunday could be a cold day for May, similar to a February or March with 60s being common across the coastal and valley areas. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/415 AM. A warming and drying trend will develop for the work week next week as high pressure aloft reestablishes. The forecast ensembles agree with a warming trend extending through at least Thursday. EPS solutions tend to hold onto the warming trend extending into next weekend. EPS cloud cover means point to the marine layer depth being kept in check, but confidence is moderate at best in this solution as we are in May. The latest forecast keeps some marine layer induced low clouds and clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. && .AVIATION...03/1313Z. At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 ft deep with an inversion top at 4500 ft and a temperature of 14 C. Low clouds and fog were widespread in all coastal and valley areas, with clouds moving into the lower coastal slopes. Cigs were mostly high IFR to low MVFR, except LIFR to VLIFR north of Pt Conception, and in the valleys and foothills. Skies should clear by mid to late morning in the valleys and by noon on the coastal plain, but may linger all day at some beaches. Expect similar conditions tonight, with widespread low clouds in coastal and most valley areas, and low MVFR to high IFR conds, except LIFR to VLIFR conds in the foothills. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 30-40% chance that cigs will not scatter out at all today. There is a 20% chance of an E wind component of 7-8 kt thru 17Z and from 09Z-15Z Sat. KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of cigs lingering until 20-21Z. There is a 30% chance of cigs will arrive as early as 03Z tonight. && .MARINE...03/723 AM. For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to increase to Gales (70% chance) this afternoon, with the strongest winds off the coast. Gales will continue thru late tonight, then drop to SCA levels. Winds may even drop below SCA level for a while Sat morning, but seas will remain above SCA levels. SCA level winds are expected (80% chance) Sat afternoon, then continue much of the time thru Tue. There is a 50% chance of Gale force winds Sun afternoon/evening, then a 30-40% chance during the afternoon/eve hours Mon thru Tue. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, SCA level winds will develop today, then continue thru late tonight. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds/seas during the afternoon/eve hours Sat, then SCA winds are likely (70% chance) during the afternoon/eve hours Sun thru Tue. There is a 30% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve. For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds in western portions of the channel this afternoon thru late tonight, then Sat afternoon/eve. SCA level W-NW winds are expected Sat night thru late Sun night (80% chance), and are likely (60-70% chance) during the late afternoon thru late night hours Mon thru Tue. There is a 30% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve. For the Southern Inner Waters, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds from Anacapa Island to Malibu during the late afternoon/eve hours Sat. SCA level winds are likely (70% chance) Sat night thru late Sun night. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Mon thru Tue. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Hall AVIATION...DB MARINE...DB/RAT SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018003947#### FXUS61 KBGM 031621 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1221 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and warm conditions return again on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only minor changes with the mid morning and noontime updates, forecast on track. 350 AM Update... Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some showers that will start to enter our western zones by early Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY. Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning's forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few thunderstorms. Both fronts aren't strong. despite a decent southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around 1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture and letting less rain run off. Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update... Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest. Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain. Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in this period. High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Monday... Mainly VFR. Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday. Wednesday... && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MPK ####018003927#### FXUS61 KBGM 031622 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1222 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and warm conditions return again on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only minor changes with the mid morning and noontime updates, forecast on track. 350 AM Update... Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some showers that will start to enter our western zones by early Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY. Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning's forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few thunderstorms. Both fronts aren't strong. despite a decent southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around 1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture and letting less rain run off. Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update... Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest. Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain. Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in this period. High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Monday... Mainly VFR. Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MPK