####018007021#### FXUS65 KBOU 031701 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1101 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers on the northeast plains tonight. - Warmer and windy on Sunday. - Sunday night into Monday will see a good chance of snow showers in the mountains. Windy and cooler over the entire area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Fairly quite morning weather-wise with temperatures rising into the 60s across the plains. It is plenty breezy across most of northeast Colorado with gusts 20-30 mph with locally higher gusts in the mountains. With plenty of sunshine and a shortwave trough passing to the north, instability continues to build across the region. Satellite shows cumulus development across the mountains with a few shower echos already forming in the northern mountains. The plains remain more stable this morning, but will become more unstable through the afternoon. This keeps the forecast on track for the scattered shower/storm threat mainly for the higher terrain and far east plains. A few strong to severe storms are possible on the far east plains with gusts up to 60 mph and up to quarter size hail. Made minor changes to the precipitation probabilities to better reflect timing of shower/storm chances for the northeast corner. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor displays showers and storms located in Wyoming this morning. The shortwave trough axis will likely stay to the north but our area should receive an increase in mid-level starting late morning. Additionally, a breezy day will occur through this evening across the region with wind gusts up to 35 mph as the shortwave trough lifts north. 700mb temperatures reach 6-8C; this will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the urban corridor and plains. Mountains and valleys should warm up to the mid 40s to 50s this afternoon. Weak instability between 100-300 J/kg will likely support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Favorable conditions for severe storms are mainly along the Kansas Colorado border late afternoon and early evening. If a storm is able to develop in that environment, expect 1 inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. With snow level roughly near 8k ft, higher elevations especially along the Park Range could accumulate snow up to 1-4 inches through Saturday morning. Late afternoon, a cold front will sweep into the CWA increasing wind gusts once more. This may produce wind gusts up to 45-50 mph. As the cold front passes, it is possible the environment becomes too stable to support any additional thunderstorm development. Tonight, drier air enters our region. Low temperatures remain near normal. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The flow aloft will become WSW on Sat as a weak sfc lee trough develops by aftn. This will allow for SSE low level flow to develop across the plains. Some moisture will affect the higher terrain by aftn with MLCAPE around 200 j/kg. As a result, there will be a chc of aftn showers and a few tstms, especially over the higher terrain along and south of I-70. Across the plains it will be dry and cooler with highs in the 60's. By Sun, SW flow aloft will increase across the area as a storm system moves into the Great Basin. In addition, sfc low pres will intensify from central WY into ern CO with stg southerly flow in the lower levels. As a result, will likely see winds gusts in the 45-55 mph range across the plains Sun aftn. As far as precip chances, MLCAPE will rise to around 300 j/kg over portions of the plains, however, there is a capping inversion which probably will inhibit tstm development. Meanwhile, highs will be warmer over most of the plains as readings rise into the 70's. The only exception would be over the far ern plains, where highs may stay in the mid to upper 60s due to low level cloud cover. For Sun night into Mon, the storm system over the Great Basin will move quickly ENE with an intense upper level low moving into ern WY, by Mon aftn. As the srn extent of the upper level trough moves across nrn CO, there will be a round of snow in the mtns Sun night into Mon morning. Across the plains, a bora type front will move across during the day with gusty WNW winds developing by midday. There also could be a chc of showers in the morning as a quick shot of mid level ascent moves across. Highs across the plains will drop back into the 60's. Looking ahead to Mon night into Tue, an intense storm system will be over the nrn Plains. This will allow for brisk WNW flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections, show enough moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of orographic snow showers to the mtns. Across the plains, it will be dry with gusty WNW winds continuing. On Wed, the storm system will move slowly eastward with WNW flow aloft remaining over the region. Once again, there will be some moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of snow showers to the mtns. Across the plains, it will remain dry and windy with highs remaining in the 60's. By Thu, the flow aloft will become more NW as a shot of cooler air moves into the area behind a front. In addition, there may be a disturbance embedded in the flow which could bring a chc of precip to the region as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/... Issued at 533 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions continue for the TAF period. Winds increase between 14-17kts and shift southeasterly by mid afternoon. Gusts up to 22-28kts could occur. It is possible just before the front arrives, scattered showers and storms develop northeast of all terminals. Outflow from these showers could lead to stronger wind gusts up to 30-35kts and variable wind direction. A cold front should arrive sometime between 23-01Z thus increasing wind briefly between 20-24kts. By 03-05Z, winds will decrease but struggle to turn back into drainage. Expect northeasterly flow late tonight through Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 It will be windy over the plains Sunday through Tuesday. Humidity levels will gradually drop from Monday into Tuesday. However, recent rainfall combined with greening up of vegetation could reduce fire danger across portions of the plains. At the time, the most likely area for increasing fire danger would be over southern Lincoln county. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Mensch SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...RPK AVIATION...AD FIRE WEATHER...RPK ####018003358#### FXUS64 KOHX 031702 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Mid state will be remaining in the broad warm sector of synoptic But, looking at the short term, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in the low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective development. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Outlook hinting at strong convection being possible near the Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers have spread across Middle Tennessee this morning, and it appears that low ceilings are soon to move in as the boundary layer becomes more saturated. Rain chances stay with us for the foreseeable future, so get used to these kinds of TAFs. There is some instability in the atmosphere, especially during the afternoon, so we've included a few hours of VCTS after 18Z. However, we don't expect any sort of organized convection, so it is difficult to pinpoint any exact timing of thunderstorm activity due to their scattered nature. Rain chances will taper off (temporarily) by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 66 82 65 / 90 50 70 50 Clarksville 78 63 80 64 / 90 50 50 40 Crossville 74 61 74 60 / 100 50 80 50 Columbia 80 63 80 64 / 90 60 70 50 Cookeville 76 63 76 62 / 90 50 80 50 Jamestown 75 61 76 60 / 100 50 80 50 Lawrenceburg 80 64 79 64 / 90 60 70 50 Murfreesboro 80 64 79 63 / 100 40 70 50 Waverly 79 63 80 64 / 80 50 50 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose ####018005183#### FXUS64 KAMA 031703 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1203 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds should dissipate from west to east today. As the low clouds give way to sunshine, instability will increase. A minor upper level short wave may also move across the Panhandles during afternoon heating. Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms may form given the added instability, lift, and moisture. A line of better organized thunderstorms is expected to move through the Panhandles overnight along a cold front. Models are in disagreement on just how widespread the thunderstorms will be overnight. There are a few models that believe that the line of storms will produce an outflow just as it moves into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This outflow would then move out ahead of the storms effectively cutting off the inflow into the storms and causing them to weaken. At any rate, there could be some severe storms both today and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. But certainly can not rule out a tornado. On Saturday and Saturday night, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with upslope flow behind the front and an upper level disturbance. The atmosphere may have to have time to recover from any storms that move through tonight, so the better chance of rain may come Saturday night. Highs today are expected to be in the 70's with a few 80's in the west. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60's to lower 70's. && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday and Monday look to be the more impactful days of the long term forecast. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue off and on throughout the day on Sunday. The next upper level system looks to remain off to the north on Monday and the return of strong west winds will bring fire weather concerns. The rest of next work week looks to feature near to above average temperatures and dry conditions. A shortwave trough will continue moving across the region on Sunday and should be east of the CWA by Sunday evening. The lift provided by the wave should aid in developing scattered showers and storms on Sunday. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east during the afternoon hours and highs should be around average on Sunday. The next H500 trough will be stronger but looks to remain north of the area. The base of the trough looks to move over portions of southeast Colorado into western Kansas. This would leave most of the Panhandles on the dry and windy side. The only exception may be the far east which could have a few showers or storms develop later in the day. Gusty west winds are likely on Monday and dry air at the surface will lead to fire weather conditions for areas that have not received rainfall to aid in greening up. Temperatures should also increase into the upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. Mainly zonal flow looks to prevail Tuesday through the remainder of the extended forecast. Breezy winds are possible each of the days along with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Model guidance hints that a cold front may move across the region late next week which could bring cooler temperatures to the area. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR to MVFR ceilings are present over KAMA and KDHT but should gradually rise through the afternoon to VFR. A thunderstorm is possible at KAMA and KDHT later this afternoon through tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Low-level wind shear is expected briefly at KGUY just ahead of the cold front, from 06z to 09z. A cold front moves in tonight and changes winds to the north. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible at KAMA in the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 68 51 74 / 40 40 70 20 Beaver OK 49 67 48 75 / 80 20 40 30 Boise City OK 43 66 45 76 / 40 10 30 20 Borger TX 52 71 53 78 / 50 30 60 20 Boys Ranch TX 50 70 51 79 / 40 20 60 20 Canyon TX 51 68 51 75 / 40 40 70 20 Clarendon TX 54 69 54 71 / 40 60 80 40 Dalhart TX 44 67 46 77 / 40 10 40 20 Guymon OK 46 67 46 75 / 70 10 40 20 Hereford TX 52 71 51 77 / 30 40 70 20 Lipscomb TX 52 67 51 74 / 70 40 60 40 Pampa TX 53 68 52 74 / 50 40 60 30 Shamrock TX 55 70 54 73 / 50 70 80 40 Wellington TX 55 72 54 73 / 70 70 80 50 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...52