####018007797#### FXUS61 KALY 031704 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 104 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region this morning will shift eastward to the New England coast during the afternoon. This high will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Just some thin high clouds over most of the region. 12Z area soundings show mixing potential supports current forecasted high temperatures across the region. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cove through this afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cooler onshore SE flow will keep temperatures cooler than that past few days. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge axis gradually shifts east of the area tonight, as a weak disturbance approaching from the west slightly flattens out the ridge. High/mid level clouds will increase thicken from west to east, with a few sprinkles possible west of the Hudson Valley. Dry low levels should preclude any measurable rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies lows will be somewhat mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend days in terms of mostly dry weather with near normal temperatures. The surface high is forecast to remain positioned off the New England coast, while ridging aloft is re-established across the Northeast. A slow-moving frontal system will continue to gradually inch eastward from the Great Lakes. The front may get close enough to provide enough forcing for scattered showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Highs looks to be close to normal ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to upper 60s in valleys. Better moisture(PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV) and forcing start to arrive Sat night, especially late in the overnight, as the upper ridge axis breaks down with a stronger short wave moving in from the west. Will mention likely PoPs west of the Hudson Valley and chance east. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to near 50. Southerly flow increases ahead of the front as it advances into western NY on Sunday. Moisture will continue to surge northward ahead of the boundary, with the aforementioned short wave trough aloft moving eastward across the region. This will result in showers likely across the entire area for much of the day. With the clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, it will be a cool/raw day with highs only in the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Rainfall amounts generally look to be around 0.50-1.00", with the max focused on the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. These rainfall amounts will not cause any hydro concerns. The surface front and short wave aloft move into New England Sun night, with showers tapering off from west to east mainly during the evening. At this time it appears the overnight hours should be mainly dry with high pressure building from the west and a developing W-NW flow ushering in drier air. Lows expected to be similar to recent nights with mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term begins at 12z Monday with the cold front departing off to our east. There could be a few lingering showers around during the morning, especially across western New England, but overall we should see a drying trend as we head through the day. Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper ridging amplifies to our west with upper troughing to our north in southeast Canada. This will lead to upper confluence near our region and allow a ridge of high pressure to build in from the northwest. With large-scale subsidence, Monday afternoon through Tuesday should be dry. With cold/dry advection and deep mixing behind the front, we bumped temperatures up a few degrees above NBM guidance. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from upper 60s in the high terrain to mid/upper 70s for the valleys. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the 40s to 50s. Tuesday night through Thursday night...A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing with it a chance for some showers. However, the exact timing of the warm front remains uncertain at this time. Beyond that, we get into a pattern with broad, positively tilted upper troughing over the center of the country and flat upper ridging to our east. This puts our region in an area of deep, persistent SW flow aloft. With an active jet stream to our west/northwest, there will be several disturbances aloft tracking through our area over the middle to end of next week. While it is too early to specifically time out any of these features, Wednesday through the end of next week looks to be unsettled, so will mention chance PoPs for the entirety of the second half of the long term period. Some thunder may be possible depending on the timing of these disturbances relative to peak daytime heating. With persistent southwest flow and warm advection, highs each day will be in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. The second half of the week also looks more humid compared to Monday and Tuesday. For days 8-14, we may remain in an unsettled pattern with the CPC expecting above normal precip and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 6:15 AM EDT except at PSF where MVFR cigs are in place due to low stratus. The low stratus will continue to impact the terminals through the next few hours with some MVFR cigs, but has not been able to expand southwestwards as rapidly as previously expected. Will continue tempo groups through 13-14z to highlight the possibility of MVFR cigs, but all TAF sites should see improvement back to VFR conditions by 14z. VFR conditions then continue through at least midnight tonight with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around. Overnight tonight, southeasterly winds may allow for more low stratus to develop, especially at ALB/PSF/POU. Will refine the timing and cigs associated with this low stratus with future TAF issuances. Winds will be from the east at 5 kt or less through early to mid- morning, then becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt from mid to late morning through the remainder of the TAF period at ALB and through around 6z tonight at GFL/PSF/POU, then becoming light and variable at these 3 sites through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Speciale ####018006534#### FXUS61 KILN 031705 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 105 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move east across the area later today and into tonight. This will bring showers and a chance for thunderstorms today into Saturday, along with some cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast remains on track: Embedded mid level energy in southwest flow aloft will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley region through this afternoon. This will be accompanied by a weak cold front that will push into our area from the west later today. Moist southwest flow ahead of this will allow for showers to overspread mainly our western areas through mid morning and then the remainder of our area heading into this afternoon. Instability will remain fairly marginal so will just allow for a chance of some embedded thunderstorms today. With some cooler air moving in from the west, highs today will range from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The mid level energy will push off to the east through tonight as the weak cold front gradually weakens as it moves across our eastern areas. As a result, expect an overall decreasing trend in pcpn from the west tonight with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southwest flow will persist aloft through the day on Saturday with some weak mid level energy again lifting northeast across the region. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with sbcapes climbing up to around 1000 J/KG or so through the afternoon. With forcing aloft fairly weak, will limit pops to mainly chance category across much of the area for Saturday. The exception may be across our east, closer to the washing out front, where will include some likely pops across at least our far east during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... While the forecast may seem a bit muddied with a potential of showers and thunderstorms through the period, there is good reasoning to have them there. First, overnight lows are only 5-10 degrees below normal. Normal high temperatures. A clear signal where temperatures across the region drop below 60 overnight doesn't seem to come about until Friday night (beyond this forecast). Thursday night looks to be within a few degrees of 60 across the CWA, but until then, 60-65 is expected. The warmest nights will be Tuesday and Wednesday where some locations to the southeast might only drop into the upper 60s. This prolonged period of overnight warmth leads to/stems from an abundance of moisture in the area. Couple this moisture with high temperatures generally running from the mid 70s to around 80 and forcing mechanisms at the surface or aloft at one time or another, and you just can't rule out shower and thunderstorm activity. More like summer, only without the blisteringly higher temperatures one might expect. During the period, Tuesday will see everyone within a few degrees of 80 but Wednesday will be the warmest with lower 80s expected, and some mid 80s possible in the southern CWA. Both high and low temperatures from the Euro ensembles show a fairly tight standard deviation of 2-3 through the entire forecast, meaning a higher confidence in narrowing the expected range in both high and low temps. Second, lifting mechanisms of one sort or another remain a larger than average threat to be over the Ohio Valley and CWA for this period. Saturday night will start with lingering storms that should be decaying after initiation from daytime heating. A cold front is pushing in overnight and while weakening, is still moving into a relatively moist environment and could propagate any lingering storms through the night. This front stretches and weakens on Sunday, but maintains a moisture boundary due to a strong high pressure center to the north. This could lead to showers over the southern CWA during the day and more overnight as the remnant boundary becomes more pronounced from w-e. Monday/Monday night keeps the boundary stretched through the CWA. It exits north-northeast on Tuesday and NBM pops given are much too high with likely in the west. A simple chance of showers/storms would be the better middle ground forecast. Now on Wednesday, warm sector showers/storms on southwest flow are more likely and could continue overnight. A surface low/front is progged on Thursday with the mean sw flow aloft not showing much change. Friday's potential of storms is focused on the potential of a surface low developing near/west of the CWA ahead of a l/w H5 trough, with the low dropping a front through the region. The cumulative pattern suggests potential rainfall/flooding issues either with individual MCS episodes or from repeated rounds of convection. This is as the upper ridge slowly flattens and low-mid level flow lines up wsw by mid week. Starting Friday, an effective frontal passage should begin to settle south of the area with cooler/drier conditions possible for the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR ceilings and shower activity continue this afternoon before showers diminish in coverage this evening. Thunderstorms are not out of the realm of possibility this afternoon, but the lack of instability keeps TS or VCTS a low probability of occurrence and out of the TAFs. VFR ceilings may lower into the MVFR range after 0600z in areas south of an approaching cold front (KDAY, KILN, KLUK, KCVG). Lowered ceilings, should they form, may persist into the morning although ceilings tend to lift toward late morning with the high sun angle in May. Southwesterly winds may persist for the first part of the afternoon in some locations before becoming light and variable this evening and through the overnight. Southeasterly winds develop after 1200z Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR conditions are possible again Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Campbell/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Campbell ####018006349#### FXUS64 KSHV 031706 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1206 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The last of the remnant MCS that moved ESE out of Oklahoma and across Southern Arkansas is still in Northeast Louisiana but should exit the area completely within the next few hours. Convection is ongoing just south of the CWA in Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana along an outflow boundary. Latest radar loops have indicated some northward redevelopment/movement on the western flank, and this could move northward into East Texas south of Interstate 20, and possibly Western Louisiana, later this afternoon. PoPs were edited somewhat based on these trends. The thick cloud cover has also kept temperatures well in check across much of Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Thus, high temps were lowered across much of the area for today. CN && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Difficult forecast leads to a low confidence one in the short- term as shortwaves embedded in dirty southwest flow aloft and a myriad of convective outflow boundaries are resulting in havoc in not only the operational deterministic progs but in the HighRes CAMS as well. Best resort is to go with progs that have initialized well to current activity which rules out most of the deterministic progs and/or nearly half the CAMS. The setup as described above is continued southwest flow aloft as the longwave trough remains across southern Canada into the Intermountain West with strong ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard. This persistent ridging is making for a rather stagnant upper pattern across the Southern Plains. The development of a nocturnal, low level jet is helping to sustain convection across E OK currently with that complex forecast to continue moving south and east into our northern zones this morning, weakening as it does. Outflow associated with this disturbance will likely serve as a focus for renewed convection later today with plenty of diurnal instability to work with. The HRRR which was followed closely for this short-term forecast is picking up on an embedded disturbance moving out of Central Texas later today with convection becoming numerous mainly near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and N LA so have therefore oriented pops highest across this area through the daytime hours, limiting chance pops to our northwest third overnight in the proximity of yet another weak disturbance moving towards the I-30 Corridor overnight. Saturday is another difficult call as our northern zones will likely be dealing with remnant MCS convection with at least scattered convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor once again tied mostly to diurnal heating. The good news is that widespread severe convection does not appear favorable today through Saturday but damaging wind gusts an an isolated large hail producing thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given the relatively steep mid-level lapse rates in place not to mention the convective outflow potential. PWATS will remain highest across our western half as well and relatively slow moving convection will of course pose a flooding theat as well but again, this should not be widespread through the short-term. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 By Saturday Night, all eyes will be on a much stronger shortwave exiting the Tx Hill Country and moving into the Upper/Middle Red River Valley of N TX/S OK. Scattered convection entering our far northwest zones late Sat Night should become numerous across most areas during the day Sunday and once again, these could pose an isolated severe and/or flash flood threat during the day. The East Coast ridge axis looks like it may finally pull up anchor and head offshore to begin the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper trough that enters to Pacific Northwest on Saturday moves into the Intermountain West on Sunday and opens up into the Southern and Central Plains for Monday. Enough upper forcing should be present across or northern half for scattered convection on Monday before we lose the upper level support for Tue into Wed. Followed the NBM pop wise Wed thru Thu but WSW flow aloft appears to continue and this results in a low confidence forecast once again as the NBM is not spitting out much in the way of pops Wed thru Thu and we all know what this flow can bring. NBM is continuing it's warming trend next week in the form of near 90 to the lower 90s Wed into Thu and if the drying trend is correct, this would put afternoon heat indices well into the 90s and even approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Summer appears to be starting way to early. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Based on morning radar trends, convection across the airspace has averaged about 2-3 hours ahead of schedule from what the CAMs have advertised overnight. The bulk of the prevailing convection is oriented across the northern terminals near KTXK. Given the inconsistency of the guidance, this results in a difficult forecast to work through for aviation interests in the region. If trends continue, some breaking of the clouds may be possible through the afternoon before a return to mostly OVC and lowering CIGs this evening. Given closer T/Td relations, BR may be possible once more by the evening, and ahead of 04/12z. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 68 85 69 / 50 20 50 30 MLU 78 65 85 67 / 70 20 30 30 DEQ 81 62 81 64 / 50 20 60 50 TXK 79 66 83 67 / 40 20 60 40 ELD 76 63 84 64 / 60 20 40 30 TYR 83 68 82 68 / 40 20 60 50 GGG 83 67 83 68 / 50 20 50 40 LFK 78 68 85 68 / 60 20 40 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...53