####018005625#### FXUS63 KLBF 031720 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1220 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across southwest Nebraska. - Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the Kansas border. - After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83. - Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900 J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor preventing a more serious convective threat today. Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along the southern flank building toward the greater instability further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out primarily further south closer to the better instability heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend. With the warm front lingering across the region today there will be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 As we head into Sunday, ensemble guidance is in good agreement in moving a strong upper low into the central Rockies and becoming negatively tilted. This will drive development of a deep surface low that will move into the Dakotas and swing a strong cold front across the High Plains early next week. We will start to feel the effects of this system on Sunday as the low level wind field amplifies considerably and southerly flow creates very windy conditions through Sunday night. The cold front will then push across Nebraska on Monday with a lot of synoptic energy setting the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak Monday afternoon into Monday night, primarily across the eastern half of Nebraska. There are a lot of variables in play and small changes in timing or location will have a significant impact on where severe weather will set up. Everyone needs to keep a close eye on this system in the days ahead, especially folks east of Hwy 83. The vertically stacked closed low will be slow to move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes region by the mid to latter portion of next week. This will keep central and western Nebraska breezy, cool, and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Strong south winds continue this afternoon for terminals south of Highway 2. A cold front will then slide through the area this afternoon and evening, with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop along this boundary. Gusty, erratic winds and MVFR visibilities can be expected with the passage of these storms. Additionally MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the wake of the cold front/thunderstorms, and will persist into early tomorrow morning. Clouds will quickly clear from west to east by late tomorrow morning, with VFR expected through the end of the valid period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Brown ####018005901#### FXUS61 KBTV 031721 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 105 PM EDT Friday...Overall, a pleasant afternoon as blue skies continue to peak through the scattered clouds across the region, although some high clouds have slowly been filtering in. Only small adjustments were made to sky cover and temperatures to reflect recent observations, otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Previous Discussion...The region is currently between a shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward. Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal averages into the upper 60s to low 70s. The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and are expected for most of the forecast period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals, with increasing high clouds overnight. A stray shower cannot be ruled out across KMSS or KSLK as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, with some MVFR ceilings possible as well but there is a lot of uncertainty with any flight category reductions. Winds will be relatively light throughout the forecast period, generally less than 10 knots variable, becoming more southerly through the forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Myskowski ####018005892#### FXUS63 KDTX 031722 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 122 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops along a cold front that will track west to east across the area between roughly 2 PM and 8 PM this evening. Severe weather is not expected. - High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next weak cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning. - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... A cold front on pace to advance from northwest to southeast across southeast Michigan mid afternoon through early evening. This front may ofer a modest focus for convective shower development during this time. While an isolated thunderstorm remains possible, the potential appears too limited to highlight given lack of greater instability. Cloud base generally at VFR within the pre-frontal environment, with evidence upstream for ceiling height to lower with time toward MVFR as low level moisture increases in the wake of the front this evening. Some degree of low cloud development and maintenance with an accompanying reduction in visibility expected overnight. Forecast will continue to highlight lower MVFR to IFR restrictions through the early-mid morning hours. For DTW/D21 Convection...Very low potential for a thunderstorm to develop between 21z and 01z. Limited instability precludes a mention in the forecast at this time. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms 21z-01z * Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening. Medium tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 UPDATE... Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the cwa this morning. Lightning observations so far have been rather limited, but a few rumbles of thunder are still possible given observed mid level lapse rates of 6.2 C/km and MUCAPE around 400 J/kg per the 12z KDTX RAOB. Individual storm motion has been SW to NE at roughly 40 mph, while the broader precipitation shield has been moving west to east and is on track to exit into Ontario by early afternoon. Drier conditions thus arrive mid-day, and PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to drop down to chance after between 16- 18z (noon-2pm local). Upstream cold front then looks to reinitiate convective activity this afternoon, with the front currently extending from South Bend to Cheboygan. Timing of the front and associated shower/thunderstorm chances begin in the Tri Cities around 18z (2pm) with a gradual drift eastward toward Detroit by around 00z (8pm). No changes to expected intensity with storms expected to hold below severe limits. Thunderstorms may dissipated before reaching eastern counties of the cwa with the front expected to wash out overhead, and instability waning as diurnal heating ramps down this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 DISCUSSION... Large upper level low/trough over Central North American early this morning, with the center along the northern Minnesota border. The 500 MB low (~540 DAM) will track off to the northeast, reaching Hudson Bay Saturday morning. Deep southwest flow will maintain above normal temperatures over southeast Michigan right through the weekend. Moisture advection has peaked out with the broad 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis extending north, through the Central Great Lakes. Still looks like lingering showers around today with possible thunderstorms as a ribbon of upper level PV approaches from the southwest. Severe weather not expected with weak mid level lapse rates and MLcapes under 750 J/kg. Height rises/surface ridging expected on Saturday, leading to mainly dry conditions during the day. Low clouds trapped underneath subsidence inversion, with perhaps a bit of drizzle/very light showers toward the southern Michigan border where the higher dew pts reside. Weak height falls/cold front then on track to move through through Saturday night, worthy of chance pops, despite the bulk of the forcing over northern Great Lakes. Western confluent upper level flow Sunday preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting at least a 48 hour window of dry and pleasant weather. MARINE... A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes today pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on this morning warm frontal passage and may persist into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms then increase coverage once again in the evening as the cold front gets pulled through the region. Brief area of high pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday. Winds will flip around to the northeast behind the cold front tonight, but the area of high pressure will keep winds below 20 knots. Southerly winds will redevelop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through Sunday, but will turn northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR UPDATE.......MV DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018005019#### FXUS63 KGID 031722 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1222 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances increase (up to 90 to 100%) this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flooding. - Another good chance of rain and thunderstorms (up to near 90%) Monday into Monday night with severe storms possible. - High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s through the weekend, then in the 40s and 50s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today and tonight... Aloft (at 500 mb), a broad upper trough extends across the northern Plains and further west dives further south across the western CONUS. At the surface, a developing trough extends across the northern Plains toward the Rockies with a surface low over southeastern Utah, with a surface high over the central Plains. Today, the surface high will move to the east while the surface low strengthens and moves east toward eastern CO by this evening and into the Hastings forecast area by midnight, dragging a cold front behind it. Meanwhile, the deeper upper trough will move east over the central Plains this evening and tonight with a pronounced shortwave moving over the forecast area this evening. High temperatures today will be in the 70s. The latest CAM guidance shows showers and thunderstorms developing over western NE this afternoon, then developing into a line of storms moving east across the area this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the area from around 7PM to 5-6 AM CDT, with the best chance for severe weather between around 8PM and 2AM. The main threats with this system will be large hail to around the size of half dollars (~1.25" diameter) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (this will likely be the main concern). While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, we are expecting many of the storms to be elevated and with low level moisture struggling to get this far north, the chance for tornadoes remains low. Even after the thunderstorms move through, expect showers into the morning hours Saturday with gusts of 25-35 mph out of the north behind the front. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 30s north and west to the mid- to upper 40s south and east. This weekend... Showers and thunderstorms will move off to the east-southeast Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will move over the region Saturday while an upper ridge moves over the area late Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will be dry after the lingering showers/storms move out early morning with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will remain dry as well for many areas, but an upper level trough across the southern Plains may impact the region enough to bring a few showers/storms to the area Sunday evening and into Monday morning. Monday... This will be the next chance for severe thunderstorms, assuming showers and storms earlier in the morning do not make the environment unfavorable for this. That being said, a deep upper level trough will extend from western Canada into the central and southern Plains, while a surface front moves across the Plains Monday and Monday night. With high temperatures in the 70s, there is a high chance (around 80%) of showers and thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance indicates that there will be enough instability and shear to support severe thunderstorms during this time, with storms anticipated to move out of the area overnight Monday night. Next Tuesday through next Thursday... High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with periodic low chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through the period, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Gusty southerly winds and VFR conditions expected to continue at both terminal sites this afternoon/early evening. Main concern for this TAF period comes as the evening passes and into part of the overnight hours, with a frontal boundary pushing through. This front will bring along increased chances for showers/storms as well as gusty northwesterly winds. Gusts in the 25-35 MPH are not out of the question. Current timing of best storm chances is roughly 03-05Z, with things more VC in nature on either side of that period. Along with the precip/gusty winds, lower clouds build in, the potential for MVFR-IFR conditions remains through the early morning hours. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...ADP ####018009020#### FXUS63 KGLD 031722 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1122 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front surging southeastward through the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and instances of large hail appear to be the primary hazards. Isolated supercells capable of producing all hazards may develop in advance of the front, south of Highway 40 in CO/KS, between 4-8 pm MDT. - Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for most of the Tri-State area, but favor along and south of I-70. - Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Overview: An upper level low centered invof the Saskatchewan- Manitoba-North Dakota border this morning will slowly progress northeastward across central Manitoba/Ontario (today-tonight) and northward into Hudson Bay (Sat-Sat night). Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy presently centered invof southern Idaho will track eastward across southern Wyoming today (rounding the base of the aforementioned upper low and broad upper trough over the Northern Plains).. then lift northeastward across South Dakota and Minnesota (tonight). A low-level southerly return flow regime will be re-established in the lee of the Colorado Front Range today.. as the MSLP-H85 height gradient re-orients and tightens in response to the development of a modest lee cyclone in Colorado (aided by the aforesaid shortwave energy /DPVA/ approaching from the west). Strengthening southerly flow will advect seasonably rich low- level moisture (4-9C 850 mb dewpoints) beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8-9 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates) in place over eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.. yielding 500 J/kg (Colorado) to 1500 J/kg (western Kansas) MLCAPE at peak heating. Guidance indicates that an evaporatively-cooled airmass /effective cold front/ emanating from fairly widespread precipitation over portions of Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle will surge southeastward through northeast Colorado late this afternoon (~00Z) and northwest Kansas by ~03-04Z this evening. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST indicate that convection will [1] rapidly develop along the effective cold front in northeast CO late this afternoon and [2] increase in coverage along the front as it progresses into an increasingly unstable airmass (with southern and eastern extent) this evening.. where damaging winds and a few instances of large hail are anticipated to be the primary convective hazards. However, guidance also suggests that isolated convection.. possibly discrete supercells.. will develop in advance of the front along the Arkansas River Valley in southeast Colorado (Bent-Prowers-Kiowa counties) ~22Z, progressing eastward into western Kansas ~23-02Z. *If* discrete supercells develop, all convective hazards are on the table.. mainly in the 23-02Z time frame.. before said updrafts are consumed/cannibalized by the southeastward advancing cold front. Sat-Sat night: Benign weather and cooler temperatures will follow, on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 243 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 For the long term period, active weather is possible Monday with generally average temperatures and daily precipitation chances through the week. Sunday is forecast to have an upper low/trough push into the Western CONUS and move towards the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, moisture is forecast to stream in from the south near the surface as a surface low develops along the Front Range while additional moisture moves in over the mountains. This could lead to a fairly cloudy day where temperatures will cap in the 60's, though any area with sun for a couple of hours should reach the 70's, especially near and west of the Colorado border. Showers and a few storms could develop with all the moisture in the area, but the severe threat should be near zero with instability still forecast to be fairly low with MUCAPE generally near or less than 500 J/KG. Sunday night through Monday is when conditions are forecast to get more interesting as the upper low moves near and over the area along with the surface low. One the first things to watch will be the winds. With the speed of the upper trough and how deep it could get, the pressure gradient and height gradients could get fairly strong and allow winds to exceed 30 mph and gusts exceed 55 mph starting as soon as Sunday evening. However, confidence is currently only around 40% as ensembles show a fairly high spread in 500mb tracks and progression. This in turn also affects the surface low and it's progression. One of the main things that could keep the winds on the lower side is that some of the ensembles are pulling the trough north. This would shift the stronger gradients more towards Nebraska and the Dakotas. Our winds would still strengthen above 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph, but high wind criteria warnings would become unlikely. The chances for the high winds then increase the further south the track of the main surface low goes (farthest south looks to be around the Southern KS border). In either scenario, low temperatures Sunday night will likely stay in the 50's with the moisture, cloud cover, and increased winds over the area. For Monday, conditions are fairly variable given the surface low has solutions with tracks that go through the area during the day or hug the KS/CO border along with tracks that are north of the area and south of the area (I am referring to the deepest part of the surface low). In scenarios where the low moves through the area and is to the east during the day, moisture would lower across the area, increasing critical fire weather chances and lowering storm and severe storm potential. In solutions where the low and front stay over or near the area, critical fire weather conditions become less likely while storm and severe storm chances increase. Winds approaching high wind warning criteria become more likely as well. Would could be of particular concern is if the low is south of the area and the warm front is draped across the area. We then begin to face scenarios similar to recent events with a warm front and a dryline/cold front acting as storm genesis points. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60's behind the system and in the 70's and maybe low 80's ahead of the system. Monday night remains just as varied with conditions ranging from calming and dry, to stormy with high winds. Currently, don't have a good inclination towards any one scenario so have gone with a more neutral forecast and am waiting for better consensus in guidance and maybe better sampling of the system (since it is still offshore). Tuesday and Wednesday look to be more "average day" with near average temperatures in the 60's and 70's and some small chances for precipitation as the upper pattern is forecast to turn more to a broad trough with the initial disturbance pushing east while the trough as a whole spins over the Northern Plains. Will need to watch for critical conditions south of I-70 with the drier air over the area dropping RH into the teens. For the end of the work week, currently forecasting near average conditions in a broad trough pattern. Guidance is split on whether the upper trough just pushes off to the east or if a small low splits off and retrogrades west. In either case, there is the possibility of another front if the trough is strong enough as it pushes off to the east, though there may not be much moisture available for storms to work with. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon. Isolated storms may develop in northwest Kansas late this afternoon, but probability of directly impacting the terminal is low. Tonight, a strong cold front will move through both terminals between 02-04z. The front will be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong surface winds shifting to the north. Some visibility restrictions due to blowing dust will be possible along and immediately behind the front. Storms will continue south during the late evening with surface winds gradually diminishing through the overnight. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BV LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...024 ####018004153#### FXUS63 KUNR 031722 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1122 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with showers today. Minor snow accumulations possible in the Black Hills. - Warmer and windy this weekend - Strong Storm system early next week with potential for several hazards; severe thunderstorms Monday, locally heavy rain Monday/Tuesday (northeastern Wyoming/northwestern South Dakota), high winds Tuesday/Wednesday, snow for the Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current surface map places low across northwestern Minnesota with cold front across eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Water vapor shows shortwave over eastern Montana and another over southern Idaho. The pair of shortwaves track eastward today. Best lift occurs later this morning through early evening over southern half of the forecast area along low level baroclinic zone. Thermal profiles support snow in the Black Hills. High resolution models point to accumulating snow for the higher elevations with HREF mean around 3" (10:1 SLR) and the 25th-75th percentile is 1"-5". Given expected snowfall rates (<0.5"/hour) and time of day, SLR's should be 25-50% lower. That still gives an inch or two of snow accumulation which should mainly be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces. Surface high drops across the area early Saturday with dry weather expected. As the high shifts east during the day southerly flow increases. Shortwave ridge aloft crosses the area early Sunday as deep low tracks through the Great Basin. Tight pressure gradient will result in windy conditions Sunday. Highs warm into the 60s for Saturday and 70s on Sunday. Upper low swings through the Rockies into the Northern Plains Monday with low stalling out over Dakotas Tuesday. Low then slowly drifts southeast on Wednesday. Decent agreement with deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, through there are some minor differences in the details. Chance of showers/thunderstorms increase late Sunday/Sunday night with an uptick in buoyancy/theta-e advection on nose of low level jet. Looks to be widespread showers/thunderstorms Monday as robust QG forcing lifts through the area. Timing of best lift/buoyancy/shear could result in a threat of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Focus for widespread rains will come as TROWAL wraps around the upper low Monday night through Wednesday. At this time, the heaviest rains appear to be north/northwest of the forecast area, though the LREF paints 40-50% probability of >1.50" QPF for parts of northeastern Wyoming into the northern Black Hills and northwestern South Dakota. Even with the potential for locally heavy rain, threat of any flooding is very low. Biggest issue with the storm will be very strong west-northwest winds. Will likely see gusts of 50-60 mph, especially on the plains north and east of the Black Hills. Thermal profiles marginally cold enough that there could be some snow in the northern Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday. However there is a wide spread in low level temperatures resulting in low confidence in any snowfall amounts. LREF has small area in the higher elevations with 30-60% probability of >6". && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1113 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR/local IFR conditions will persist across the Black Hills and adjacent plains, through mid afternoon with light rain and snow. Areas of MVFR conditions will persist through mid afternoon mainly across the SD plains east of the Black Hills to KPHP and KD07. VFR conditions will continue elsewhere. Conditions over the Black Hills area and plains to the east will gradually improve to VFR by late afternoon and early this evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...15 ####018004649#### FXUS64 KLZK 031722 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1222 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Regional WSR 88-D radars depict showers and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of far Wrn AR extending back into Ern OK associated with an approaching upper level disturbance. Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog were noted across portions of SW, S, into Cntrl AR. This convection will slowly push S and E, moving into Wrn AR through the early morning time frame. What remains of this system will then push into Cntrl and Srn AR after sunrise through about mid- day. While a low-end wind threat and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest of storms, coverage of these stronger storms should be spotty. Overall, the intensity of convection should trend downward. An active SWrly upper pattern will remain entrenched across the region into the long term. Another weak upper level impulse should move through the flow on Saturday promoting an additional round of showers and thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will enter Nrn AR, bringing some additional lift across this area. Highest PoP chances should be over Wrn sections of the state. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere. The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Saturday. Over Nrn AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are possible over the two day span. Further S, over Cntrl AR, amounts may range from 0.25 to 0.75. And lastly but not least, Srn sections of the state could see rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 0.75 inches. High temperatures both days will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 60s, with upper 50s over the higher terrain of W/NW/N-Cntrl AR. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The extended period will start off with a cold front stalled across northern Arkansas, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Any severe weather should be spotty, and there could be localized flash flooding. Heading into next week, a large storm system will track from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Ahead of the system, the aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the same time, the system will try to drag a new front into the region, but it will likely come to a halt north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft. Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated with time. Rain chances are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front. Temperatures will be well above average. As the period ends, the system to the north will exit into Canada. Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front that halted to the north earlier in the week will be driven through the region on Thursday. The front will be accompanied by hit/miss thunderstorms, and followed by cooler/drier air. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR to VFR conditions persist around the state currently. All terminals will gradually improve to VFR conditions through the afternoon hours today as CIGs lift and skies clear. Some light showers will possible this evening across northern terminals. Additional rounds of rain will be possible through early next week. FG will be possible tonight for central terminals where winds become calm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 63 82 64 / 30 20 60 30 Camden AR 78 63 83 64 / 60 30 40 30 Harrison AR 77 60 79 59 / 30 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 79 63 82 64 / 50 20 50 40 Little Rock AR 81 65 84 67 / 50 30 50 30 Monticello AR 79 65 85 67 / 60 40 40 30 Mount Ida AR 80 62 82 64 / 60 20 60 40 Mountain Home AR 79 60 81 60 / 30 10 60 30 Newport AR 81 64 83 64 / 40 30 50 30 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 83 66 / 60 40 40 40 Russellville AR 81 62 82 64 / 50 10 50 30 Searcy AR 79 62 82 64 / 40 30 50 30 Stuttgart AR 79 65 82 67 / 50 40 50 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...73 ####018004398#### FXUS61 KBGM 031723 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 123 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and warm conditions return again on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Only minor changes with the mid morning and noontime updates, forecast on track. 350 AM Update... Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some showers that will start to enter our western zones by early Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY. Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning's forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update... Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 120 PM Update... A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Monday... Mainly VFR. Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MPK ####018003792#### FXUS63 KDVN 031723 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1223 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week. - The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Saturday for portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Following yesterday's all day rain in much of eastern Iowa (thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we're in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure moves through our northern counties. Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to 12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist transport. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast. The frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC's placement of marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA. These would be progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end. Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean. Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR will continue today and tonight before a cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. The front will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms by the mid to late morning west of the Mississippi River. Held off on thunder mention in the TAFs for now due to low confidence on storm coverage. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech ####018005956#### FXUS65 KCYS 031723 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1123 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through the region today with another round of shower activity in the mountains and isolated thunderstorms over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet. - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. - Breezy to windy, and cooler weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Today...A progressive and positively tilted shortwave trough aloft moves from western Wyoming this morning to central Wyoming by mid afternoon and to eastern Wyoming by late afternoon. Its associated fairly strong cold front moves quickly across our counties by late afternoon with winds turning to the north and increasing. With ample low and mid level moisture, and decent frontal lift along with dynamic lift supported by 500-300 mb and 700-500 mb quasigeostrophic lift, we anticipate scattered to numerous showers spreading from our western counties this morning to our southern and eastern counties this afternoon, along with isolated thunderstorms mainly east of I- 25. Snow will fall over the higher elevations of the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges with amounts from 4 to 7 inches, however with the snow falling during the daylight hours, there will likely be some melting and compacting of the snow, thus no advisory issuance seems necessary. With the strength of the cold front and the blustery north winds, it will feel rather chilly for early May. Tonight...Precipitation will end quickly this evening as the shortwave trough aloft moves off to our east. Looks like a cold overnight as surface high pressure builds southward across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska and skies become clear. Saturday...Transitory shortwave ridging aloft will build overhead and with plenty of sunshine and 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius, maximum temperatures will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s, with southeast low level winds limiting the warmup. Saturday night...Decent moderation in temperatures will occur as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of the approaching trough aloft over the Great Basin states, inducing increasing south winds and a thermal ridge over our counties, with low temperatures from the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday will be the warmest day of the weekend as a shortwave ridge axis moves just to the east ahead of a large scale upper level low moving towards the central Rockies. 700mb temps will warm near 6-10C with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper-60s and 70s ahead of increasing cloud cover with the approaching upper level low. Areas west of the Laramie Range, especially southwest Carbon Co and the Sierra Madres will begin to see increasing moisture Sunday night leading to accumulating snowfall above 7500 ft elevation. Based on the upper level low track, the majority of wrap around moisture will most likely develop farther north and east. However, lee troughing across much of the WY Front Range will lead to increasing mslp gradients and the potential for strong westerly winds across our area starting Monday. Latest NBM probabilities of 55+ mph wind gusts are quite high (>80%) for most wind-prone areas across southeast WY with areas covered by 50% probabilities expanding outside of wind-prone locations onto adjacent foothills and plains. Additionally, in-house guidance has been showing high probabilities (60-80%) for high winds, however there still remains run-to-run uncertainty with the duration and timing of strongest winds. This should clear up as models continue to get a better idea on the low track and evolution. Right now, the timing for the strongest winds appears to be Monday afternoon with 700mb flow climbing over 60 kt across southeast WY and 850mb (700mb) CAG-CPR height gradients exceed 70m (60m). Latest cluster analysis shows ~45% of EC membership favors a slightly farther south track that will lean towards stronger wind speeds aloft over our area. Overall, there remains strong ensemble support for high winds early next week with latest NAEFS and EC showing over climatological 99th percentile 700mb winds. This upper level low looks to stall out across the central CONUS leaving southeast WY and western NE under a general troughing pattern through the remainder of the week. This will lead to below average temperatures for early May with additional chances for light precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Snow showers have been moving through KRWL with an associated cold front, dropping conditions to IFR and will likely continue over the next few hours, clearing up by this evening. These snow showers will continue moving east and will begin to affect KLAR over the next two hours, and potentially KCYS in the next four hours. Precipitation type will more likely be rain by the time it reaches KCYS. In addition, thunderstorms will likely begin developing in the eastern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, if they were to develop and affect any terminal, it will most likely be KAIA. As the cold front moves across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, winds will turn more northerly with strong wind gusts 30 to 40+ knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...LEG