####018003662#### FXUS64 KOUN 031727 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers/storms will continue into the morning hours with the highest chances in east central and southeast parts of the fa. The severe potential with this activity has diminished but still could get some gusty winds out of the stronger storms. Heavy rain/localized flooding will also be possible, especially in those areas that have already received several inches of rain and where storms train. The frontal boundary that moved across parts of the area Thursday will lift back north later today with moisture spreading back northward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area later today and move into the fa this evening/overnight. Meanwhile, another cold front is expected to begin to move into the fa overnight/early Saturday which would also be a focus for shower/storm development. Severe storms will be possible starting this evening with damaging wind and hail possible. Highs today are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 With the frontal boundary over the fa and potentially a shortwave moving across the region, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms will be possible again Saturday evening and overnight with damaging wind and hail. However, what might be a bigger concern this weekend is the potential for more widespread heavy rain with heaviest amounts expected across the southern half or so of the area. With the recent heavy rainfall that has already occurred, this heavy rain could lead to additional flash flooding/river flooding in several areas. For Monday, models show an upper trough approaching and moving into the Plains. At the sfc, a dryline develops and moves into the area. Thunderstorms will be possible once again with severe storms possible. The potential for severe weather could be greater on Monday compared to the next few days due to the added upper air support. There are some uncertainties since what happens over the weekend could affect the airmass over the region but with the upper support and dryline, thunderstorms/severe storms are possible Monday. After Monday it looks like there could be a period of quieter weather for at least the middle of next week with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low stratus will continue to affect most TAF sites through the afternoon, and will affect all TAF sites later in the period. There is a low chance that storms move into portions of western Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma overnight. Southeasterly winds will shift towards the north as a cold front moves in early Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 77 60 74 / 40 90 70 80 Hobart OK 60 76 58 75 / 50 80 80 60 Wichita Falls TX 62 78 61 77 / 40 80 80 60 Gage OK 54 68 51 75 / 70 50 60 50 Ponca City OK 61 73 57 72 / 60 80 60 70 Durant OK 65 79 64 76 / 30 70 70 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...13 ####018007432#### FXUS65 KGJT 031728 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1128 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A system will brush the northern tier of eastern Utah and western Colorado today, bringing a few valley rain and mountain snow showers. Minor accumulations are expected with little to no impacts. - Scattered showers are possible late Saturday mainly in the mountains. Elsewhere expect warmer and dry conditions. - A strong system is expected on Sunday and Monday. It will bring widespread precipitation and strong winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A shortwave trough will pass just north of the CWA later today. It will bring a cold front and enough moisture for scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. The best chances for showers is along and north of the highway 40 corridor, but a few could reach as far as I-70 with little to no accumulation there. The northern mountains look to receive a bulk of the precipitation as well as the upper Yampa valley. Snow levels will range from 7-8 kft, but given most of this falls during the day snow should cause to limited impacts. Showers enter the area from Wyoming later this morning and continue pushing eastward this afternoon before exiting this evening. The prefrontal jet is quite strong with this system so daytime mixing and virga showers will allow these winds to reach the surface. This afternoon most locations see gusts over 25 mph, but they could be as high was 40-50 mph in spots. Right now that appears to be along and just north of I-70 from Rifle to Vail. Temperatures will be rather seasonable across the southern half of the area. Up north clouds and precip will keeps things cooler than normal. Conditions dry out tonight due to a lack of lift, but the moisture never really leaves the region. A weak shortwave sneaks up from the southwest tomorrow during the day. It along with the moisture will support convection later in the day. The best chances for showers will be the southern and central mountains. The QPF is on the low side so impacts should be minimal. Temperatures recover and warm in this southwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Any lingering showers from Saturday afternoon along the Continental Divide mountains should diminish during the overnight hours Saturday night. After a warm day, nighttime temperatures will be quite mild with lows roughly 10 degrees above seasonal norms. For Sunday, attention quickly turns to a large and deep mid-level closed low pressure system that will be tracking across the Great Basin to round out the weekend. Ahead of this system, a tightening pressure gradient... along with a pronounced southwesterly mid and upper level jet with wind speeds of 40 to 50 kts at 700mb and over 100 kts at 250mb... will punch into eastern Utah and western Colorado Sunday afternoon. Strong diabatic heating will support deep boundary layer mixing, resulting in the efficient transport of very strong winds aloft down to the surface. Frequent surface wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are likely to be common, with max gusts up to 60 mph in the valleys and 80 mph in the high elevations not ruled out. These are the types of setups that often produce our high end wind events here, so wind highlights are almost certainly going to be needed at some point. For now, keep an eye to the forecast and be prepared for a very windy day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday, models are highlighting a strong shortwave and vort max rounding the base of the closed low now over the northern Rockies, taking on a negative tilt, and swinging across eastern Utah and western Colorado. This potent and dynamic feature will also be accompanied by a strong cold front as it blasts through Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of and along the front, fairly widespread showers are expected to break out as moisture, surface convergence, and large scale forcing for ascent increases and becomes maximized. Right now, guidance is pointing towards the heaviest precipitation being confined to the central and northern Colorado mountains where QPF amounts of 0.50" to 1.00" are progged... with lesser amounts of 0.25" or less elsewhere. The air mass will initially be very warm, as evidenced by snow levels well above 9000 to 10000 feet, but will quickly cool to between 5000 and 6000 feet by early Monday morning in the wake of the front. No doubt the mountains way up high will see some snow from this system, but how much entirely depends on how much precip is left once the colder air moves in. Since this will be a fast moving system, and most of the significant precipitation will be over with by Monday afternoon, there's likely just not enough time when the highest QPF amounts and the colder air overlap. However, if there's one place where snow accumulations may be fairly decent, it's in the highest elevations of the Park Range as cold, upslope, orographic, northwesterly flow and another wave on Tuesday may allow snow to pile up in excess of 6 and possibly 12 inches. Beyond Tuesday, the rest of the long term period likely remains unsettled with deterministic models and ensembles highlighting continued troughing across the Intermountain West. Showers in the high country will probably be a daily occurrence, particularly across the northern Colorado mountains. Elsewhere, the big story will be the cooler than normal temperatures with highs largely in the 50s and 60s down low, and 30s and 40s up high. Overall, the synoptics driving the pattern next week are chaotic and likely to be influenced by mesoscale processes and convection. As a result, expect to see some changes in the forecast and for the finer details to remain unclear until we get closer. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front trying to drop into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon will bring ceilings generally between 5000 and 10000 feet and a chance of showers. The main threat with any showers that do develop will be gusty and erratic outflow winds. The influence of this front is expected to stretch as far south as KEGE and KRIL, maybe KASE, but remaining terminals south of this will not see any direct impacts. Strong and gusty westerly to southwesterly winds will be the main issue across the entire region, with gusts of 30-40 knots possible especially along and south of the I-70 corridor. Due to a combination of these winds and ongoing work on the runway at KGJT, occasional reports of VIS less than 2SM and ceilings less than 200 feet are possible as dust interacts with the sensor. VIS is expected to remain past 6SM and ceilings above 10000 feet. Winds will diminish after sunset, becoming light and following typical diurnal patterns. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...TGJT ####018005215#### FXUS63 KABR 031729 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1229 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected over south central to northeastern SD and western MN this afternoon through tonight. A quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain southeast of a line from Lyman to Traverse county. - A much larger system looks to affect the region on Monday, with widespread moderate rainfall. The threat for severe weather still appears low at this time (higher across NE/KS/OK), but we will continue to monitor trends. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Beginning to see some rain shower activity work its way over the southwestern part of the CWA this morning, and it still looks on track to continue to spread to the northeast, with portions of far northeastern and east central South Dakota, as well as west central Minnesota likely to see the higher rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight. Will continue to monitor for the chance for thunderstorms across the southern part of the CWA, which would result in some areas seeing higher rainfall amounts. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper trough will deepen and trail into South Dakota by afternoon. At the same time, a warm front will extend into southeast SD off a Colorado low. The moisture tongue to the north of the front combined with shortwave energy in the trough could create a set up for a southwest to northeast oriented band of rain stretching from Lyman county to Traverse county. Areas southeast of the line have the potential for up to an inch of rain. Deterministic CAMs are higher on the QPF than current WPC guidance, but generally expect over a quarter of an inch in the band with as much as 0.75" locally. As always with any banded precip, the exact location of the band may shift. However, it looks like north central SD should remain dry. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal today in the trough and rain. High pressure builds in on Saturday bringing drier weather, but the upper trough will continue to pull in below normal temps with highs maxing out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday evening we start the long term with an upper level ridge over the area. This will stay in place through Monday morning. Monday afternoon/evening an upper level low moves into the region. Clusters are all pretty close with placement somewhere in the MT/ND/SD area. Things get a little complicated after that as deterministic models and ensembles show a cut off high to the north of this low and a rex block pattern starts to emerge keeping the low circulating over the region for a few days, through the end of the period, actually. Rain chances start to move in Monday afternoon and continue, with intermittent reductions in probability, through the end of the period. Looking at NAEFS percentiles, Monday looks to be the wettest with PWAT values in the 97.5 percentile (mainly west river). NBM is showing 55 to 65 percent chances of more than a half inch of rain in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning across most of the area. Chances of more than a quarter of an inch in 24 hours are limited for the rest of the period. Overall, from Monday through the end of the period, POPs only drop below 20 percent in isolated areas and for short periods of time. Strong storms do not look likely at this time. Along with a rather wet outlook, temperatures starting Tuesday will be around to 10 degrees below average through the end of the period. Before we get there, though, Sunday and Monday are expected to have high temperatures around to about 5 degrees above average due to ridging and strong WAA. Winds Sunday and Monday are expected to be quite strong. Gusts Sunday could be as high as 40 mph, perhaps stronger (especially west river) and around 35 mph on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG An area of rain currently extending from southwestern South Dakota to central South Dakota will continue to spread to the northeast this afternoon. The rain will come to an end over central South Dakota this evening, but will continue across northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota through the nighttime hours. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across east central South Dakota this evening. Periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with the rain. VFR conditions will prevail across the area Saturday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin ####018009295#### FXUS61 KPBZ 031729 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 129 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm weather precedes increasing precipitation chances Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Cooler, but still above average, temperatures prevail Saturday and Sunday with warm and unsettled weather continuing into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures well above average approaching a few records. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Did another minor refresh to the grids for today. Do think that the thickening cirrus will mute the temperature rise slightly today, and have 84-87 degrees as a top-end range for much of the area. Although a shower or two may creep into the ZZV area this morning, the bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity is still projected to kick off during the mid to late afternoon hours. .. Previous Update .. High pressure will retreat off to the east as a disturbance approaches from the west. Cirrus coverage will thicken and lower through the morning with increasing upper level moisture. Forecast soundings suggest another day similar to Thursday with a quickly breaking nocturnal inversion and a dry boundary layer allowing for mixing up to nearly 700 mb. The 850 mb ridge will gradually shift to the east and allow for warm advection in southwesterly flow to bring layer temperatures up to 15-16C across the area by afternoon, suggesting that high temperature will achieve the mid to upper 80s despite the cirrus. A couple sites have the potential to approach record highs (see climate section). Some lingering uncertainty in ensemble cloud coverage with suggestions for periods of scattering as cirrus push to the east lends potential for additional insolation to push temperatures up even a degree or two higher than currently forecast. This also could aid in a bit more destabilization ahead of showers and thunderstorms expected to develop by afternoon. Indications are that showers and storms pop after 17z despite copious low level dry air (LCLs 6-8kft) as convective temperatures are met and a shortwave moves through, though weak net height rises through the day are expected. Mean hi res ensemble CAPE has increased in the latest run with 600-900 J/kg; conditional on potential scattering of clouds, the 75th percentile is up to 1400 J/kg. Most guidance suggests that warm mid-levels will suppress updrafts with an equilibrium level below about 500mb. Latest CAMs suggest that the best shot for deeper convection may be across eastern Ohio where slightly less warmth and moisture in the mid-levels may allow for greater vertical growth. Even if the higher end of the instability spectrum is achieved, weak cloud bearing layer flow will present a moderate CAPE/low shear environment likely more favorable of gusty wind with brief heavy downpours. PWATs will be pushing 1.5" and upwind propagation vectors around 10 knots despite practically no low level jet suggest this potential. HREF probs for >0.5"/hr rates reach up to around 60% by evening. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has our area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall on Friday. Record low max temperatures may be broken Friday night with persistent cloud cover not allowing for radiative cooling. Convection is favored to wane as instability is lost and the upper wave departs. Nonetheless, scattered showers will continue overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled pattern remains with rain chances continuing through Sunday. Thunder possible on Sunday. - Temperatures drop, but still remain above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Come Saturday, there is some suggestion the trough progression will come to a halt and allow rain to persist ahead of it being reinforced by approaching low pressure and additional shortwave support arriving from the south. The positioning of the trough will have a great influence on the weekend weather. No significant changes to the forecast for Saturday as instability looks limited to the western side of the stalled boundary/trough with a 50-60% of >500 J/kg while elsewhere plenty of low to mid level warm air will cap the environment. Total rainfall Saturday is favored in the half to three quarters of an inch range. There is good agreement the trough finally pulls through by Sunday. An area of maximized precipitation ahead of or just along the trough axis is favored, as is a greater chance for more instability to work with. Ensemble probability for CAPE >500 J/kg reaches 70-80% Sunday, but with a good amount of clouds around and a low probability of any scattering. Still, with a bit better dynamics in play and marginal instability, a few thunderstorms accompanying the trough appear possible. Most likely total precipitation amounts Friday night - Sunday night sit around 1.0-1.3", but the 90th percentile exceeds 2" primarily across the WV panhandle and western PA resultant of some convective enhancement along the aforementioned trough. This does not raise any flooding concerns for now, but may warrant watching if the higher end becomes more likely. Thick cloud coverage through the weekend will hold temperatures in check, but still above average, in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances continue into early next week but more uncertainty lends lower confidence. - Temperatures favored to remain above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- After a brief lull in the precip late Sunday night into early Monday morning as flat upper ridging slides through and surface high pressure meanders on by, rain chances again increase. Seeing some better ensemble agreement for Monday with shortwave low pressure approaching from the southwest but weakening as the responsible upper wave flattens out. High pressure to the north should keep the highest precipitation chances south of I-70. Much more ensemble spread comes into play after Monday primarily with the progression of the upper pattern as ridging tries to develop but a deep upper low across the Dakotas throws shortwave energy to the east and tries to break the ridge down. A warm front likely lifts through sometime Tuesday into Wednesday increasing rain chances again, but with uncertainty in the strength and positioning of the ridge, timing and precipitation amounts remain low confidence at this time. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will prevail this afternoon. High clouds will progressively thicken and high base cumulus fields may develop into the afternoon as heating continues. Guidance is consistent on developing shallow updrafts into the day today. Though there has been no observed lightning so far, the best heating has a chance of invigorating showers/storms into southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The current tempo groups highlight the period of best probability at the sites with the higher confidence in precipitation. Into tonight, convection is expected to subside and become lower coverage before resolving to some morning rain. Saturation from prior and current rain, with cooling temperatures may force a MVFR deck by daybreak, with probabilities of IFR greater than 50% at FKL and DUJ for now. As the morning continues on, saturated surface conditions near the surface trough will allow rain and shower chances to continue into the afternoon in southeast surface flow with modest improvement in daytime heating. .Outlook... Restriction potential continues through Sunday morning, with additional storm chances Sunday afternoon. Retractions return early next week as multiple disturbances cross the region. && .CLIMATE... Some record highs may be approached on Friday as well as record lows on Saturday. (* denotes current forecast temperature exceeds value) 5/3 Record High Year Pittsburgh 95 1887 Wheeling 90 1942 Morgantown 88 1965, 2012 New Philadelphia 89 2012 Zanesville 91 1938 Dubois 84 2012 5/4 Record Low Year Pittsburgh 65 1938 Wheeling 63 1931, 1939, 1941 Morgantown 63 2021 New Philadelphia 60* 2012 Zanesville 65 1902 Dubois N/A N/A && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB/CL/Milcarek SHORT TERM...MLB/Milcarek LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Milcarek CLIMATE...MLB ####018007270#### FXUS63 KJKL 031729 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 129 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast through the next 7 days. - Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1058 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Updated minor modifications to PoPs and QPF for the remainder of today into this evening. Other changes were minor. Blended in latest temperature observations into the forecast to depict the cooler current temperatures where rain is falling. UPDATE Issued at 822 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Expanded low-end PoPs slightly eastward this morning to account for isolated shower activity developing where PoPs < 15. Also raised QPF slightly especially this afternoon and mainly along the westernmost tier or two of counties. Otherwise, blended in hourly temperatures to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Made a quick early update to the forecast grids. Based on obs from the past few hours, temperatures have simply not fallen off as far as originally forecast, especially in our normally cooler eastern valleys. Therefore, modified this mornings lows to reflect the latest obs trends. Will leave the zone forecast text product as is to continue covering early morning shower activity. Another update will be needed in the next hour or two to remove the pre- first period and make any further necessary updates. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 The 6Z surface chart out of the WPC showed a large occluded low in place over northwestern Minnesota, with an occluded front extending southeast from it. A cold front and semi-stationary boundaries were snaking their way southwest and east from the triple point with the occluded boundary, with each boundary extending out to the east coast and beyond and out to western Nevada. Waves of low pressure were also seen at various locations from Utah to southwest Texas, to Indiana, and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure was in place over portions of the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, with large subtropical low in place off the southeastern CONUS. A complex pattern in place across the country to be sure to start off this Friday. We will see showers and thunderstorms moving through our area from time to time today through Saturday, as the occluded low moves eastward into the Great Lakes and eventually into central New England. As the low moves off to the east or northeast, the surface boundaries extending south from it will move through the region, and will spark showers and storms across area. Based on current model data, it is clear that there will be instability and moisture in place to fuel showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky, but uncertainty exists as to exactly where storms will fire and how extensive the rain will be. Some models have been showing few if any showers and storms across eastern Kentucky over the next couple of days, while others have fairly extensive coverage of precipitation. There is also some doubt revolving around how well defined any boundaries will be as they move through our area. That all being said, with a good influx of moisture and instability into the region, we expect scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms to fire and move through the area from time to time today through Saturday, with the afternoon and early evening hours being most active due to peak heating and maximized instability. It does appear that Saturday will be a bit more active than today, as the model data is showing quite a bit more instability present than today, especially late Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap today and Saturday. Enough decoupling may occur late Friday night to allow for a small ridge valley split, especially in the northeast where our normally cooler valleys may fall off into the mid 50s. As far as weather hazards go, we are not expecting anything of major concern at this time. As always, any thunderstorms we see the next couple of days will be capable of producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours that could lead to ponding of water on roadways or short lived minor nuisance flooding. Confidences is high that most locations will see rain today through Saturday, its a matter of how widespread will thunderstorms be, especially today with less instability expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A rather wet long term period should be in store. However, it looks overall rather short on details/specifics. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest, while low level flow will be from the south southwest off the gulf. This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow, it will not have much momentum and is not likely to make a clean passage during the period (possibly just beyond the current long term period). This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s most of the time. The main drivers for precip will be convection associated with diurnal heating cycles and mid/upper level waves. While the diurnal cycle is simple, weak upper level features are much more problematic. The most obvious and predictable feature at this point is a shortwave trough which all models have approaching on Monday. The highest POP (70% area wide) of the long term period coincides with this. The remainder of the 12 hour periods have POPs mainly in the 40-60% range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Periodic rain showers will continue through much of the period, though nailing down timing at any one TAF location is difficult. Models seem to be slower in bringing sufficient instability for VCTS mention into the region this afternoon, so pared back any mention to primarily KLOZ and KSME. Once the sun goes down, the storms should become more isolated with time with rain showers being the dominant precipitation mode. Any storm could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with brief periods of MVFR or IFR VSBYs. MVFR CIGs will also be possible at times today into this evening during peak shower/thunderstorm activity. If shower activity tapers sufficiently overnight will likely see at least some fog develop at some if not all terminals, even moreso if there is any partial clearing. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...CMC