####018006049#### FXUS64 KHUN 031730 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 930 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The forecast this morning has already proved to be tricky. QPF amounts have already over preformed and CAMS have struggled to accurately depict morning rain and storms. This is not necessarily surprising as we have a summer like system moving through consisting of weakly forced shortwaves that CAMS notoriously struggle to grab on to. Based on the over performance of morning rain, this gives credence to higher QPF amounts likely seen through the weekend, however that will be further addressed in the afternoon forecast package. For the rest of today, current observations indicate an area of convergence extending NW to SE through the CWA. Weak showers will likely continue to develop along that axis over the next few hours ahead of the arrival of the next short wave. This afternoon into this evening, the next shortwave is forecast to move through the area but there is significant disagreement in the models as to the coverage of showers and storms associated with it. Right now the most likely scenario seems that pop up summer like convection will develop first from surface heating in the mid afternoon resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Later in the evening, higher coverage of showers and storms is expected with the arrival of the shortwave. Two scenarios seem possible with the second shortwave: 1.) most of the area seeing light to medium rain through the evening, or 2.) a band of showers setting up along one axis only impacting a limited area. With such poor model guidance so far, the solution may not be apparent until it begins to unfold. Fortunately, there is no severe threat associated with these shortwaves, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rainfall will however still pose a threat to outdoor activities. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Fairly high POPs will remain warranted across the region overnight, as broad scale vertical motions will increase slightly with the passage of a weak mid-level shortwave trough to our northwest. The risk for thunderstorms will remain highest this evening (prior to the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle), with a gradual transition to light rain expected by early Saturday morning. Due to the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer and only light southerly winds, patchy fog will be possible for many locations as well. Present indications are that the general synoptic pattern across our region will change very little on either Saturday or Sunday, although with indications of low-amplitude shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday (in the wake of the shortwave trough), coverage of afternoon showers and storms will likely be somewhat lower compared to today. By late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, the marine warm front (discussed in the near term section) will begin to lift northeastward through the CWFA as a strong upper low tracking into the central Rockies induces surface pressure falls across the high Plains of eastern CO/WY. This will likely support a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Highs will be in the u70s-l80s once again tomorrow, before warming into the l-m 80s Sunday, and lows should remain in the l-m 60s through Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday. Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Afternoon pop up convection will make for challenging TAFs. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop through the afternoon from surface heating. Kept VCTS in the prevailing to account for uncertainty in storm coverage and intensity. Later this evening, just before 0Z, more widespread showers and storms will move in from the west. This will result in heavier showers with periods of MVFR to IFR possible as reflected in the tempo group. While strongest showers and storms will move out of the area during the early morning hours, MVFR ceilings will likely remain for the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...RAD ####018006019#### FXUS63 KLOT 031731 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1231 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds Saturday afternoon and evening. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances next week, with some potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Through Saturday: Ongoing convective activity across portions of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana continues to wane early this morning as remaining instability and associated mid-level lapse rates decrease. In fact, as of 3am CT, very little lightning has been observed in the forecast area over the past hour. While a few lightning strikes are still possible through sunrise, a departing mid-level wave will limit remaining deeper-layer support. Meanwhile, a cold front roughly parallel to the Mississippi River will continue to shift a band of shallow showers across the area into mid-morning. High pressure will quickly settle across the western Great Lakes through tonight. The combination of a rather dry airmass evident by upstream dew points generally in the 30s along with fairly clear skies today should allow seasonably warm conditions in the 60s along the shore and lower 70s inland today. Today's cold front will stall across the south half of Illinois, allowing for a return of low-level moisture behind the surface high on Saturday. A small mid-level wave lifting northeast across the far Upper Mississippi River Valley Saturday morning may brush the northwest CWA. Return of sufficient moisture by this point remains in question, though an isolated storm cannot be ruled out for areas west of I-39 late morning into early afternoon. A disjointed trough passage into the western Great Lakes later Saturday and into Saturday night should better align with increasing shallow moisture to produce scattered showers and storms as far east as around I-57 by sunset. However, fairly shallow low-level moisture return and a deep reservoir of dry mid-level air may limit storm coverage but also support gusty winds with any convection. Kluber Saturday Night through Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing along and ahead of a cold front Saturday evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe early in the evening, with mainly localized gusty winds, though this threat should diminish with eastward extent due to diurnal loss of low-level instability and generally weak deep-layer shear. Sunday through Sunday night looks to be largely dry and cooler, as Saturday night's cold front settles toward the Ohio Valley and surface high pressure builds east across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region. Temperatures will be limited to the lower 70s well inland Sunday afternoon, while northeast winds off of Lake Michigan will keep highs only in the upper 50s near the lake. Lows will dip into the mid-upper 40s in most spots Sunday night. Ensemble guidance depicts deep upper level trough developing across the western and central CONUS heading into next week, with a closed upper low developing across the Northern Plains Monday. A series of mid-level short waves are progged to rotate around the south and southeast periphery of the circulation as it slowly drifts east, eventually lifting the front across the lower Ohio Valley northward as a warm front later Monday night into Tuesday. Some spotty elevated showers are possible as early as Monday afternoon and evening as warm/moist advection develops atop the warm frontal slope, though really becomes more focused into the local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This appears to be the period with the greatest potential for thunderstorms, some potentially strong to severe given strong mid-level wind fields and warm/moist/conditionally unstable low levels. Temperatures looks to surge back into the upper 70s/around 80 Tuesday afternoon, with surface dew points rising into the 60s as the warm front lifts across the area. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances linger through the mid-week period, as ensembles continue to indicate the upper trough drifting east across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region through the end of the forecast period. Blended NBM guidance maintains chance pops both Wednesday and Thursday, especially during the more diurnally-favored afternoon/evening hours. Higher low-level Theta-E air mass gradually gets shunted east of the area during this time, with temperatures gradually settling into the lower 70s by Thursday. Ratzer && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 - There is no impactful weather expected through the current forecast period Lingering MVFR cigs over Northwest Indiana are slowly eroding away as a cold front exits the area through the afternoon. Northeast winds around 10 knots are expected through the day, gradually rotating to the southeast by Saturday morning and diminishing slightly. Guidance is suggesting a fairly low level inversion developing Saturday morning. With enough flow above 1000 feet, it should result in a FEW low to mid level clouds developing; however, some areas in Northwest Indiana might have moments of lower vis around 4 SM, but dense fog is not expected. By Saturday afternoon, winds will become southwesterly ahead of the next passing cold front. Rain showers are expected to accompany this front, but not arriving until after the current forecast period for any of the TAF sites. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018005497#### FXUS65 KPSR 031731 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1031 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above normal temperatures are expected today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow currently exists over the Desert Southwest while the persistent troughing feature over the Intermountain West gradually begins to push east this morning. Though a weak upper ridge will traverse the Pacific Northwest later today and continue eastward, heights aloft will be relatively unchanged over the forecast area through tomorrow, and so afternoon high temperatures will be stable in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. The trough evident in current mid-lvl wv imagery off the Pacific Northwest Coast is expected to dive south along the West Coast Saturday, move inland, and traverse the Great Basin Sunday. The tightening pressure gradient ahead of and along the southern periphery of this trough will bring widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday. A dry cold front associated associated with this system will also sweep through the CWA Sunday, leading to high temperatures dropping between 5-10 degrees across the lower deserts (and potentially more in the western deserts) on Sunday compared to their forecast values on Saturday. NBM guidance continues to show upwards of 80-90% probability for gusts to 40+ mph across Southwest Imperial County including the Imperial Valley Saturday afternoon/evening. As a result, Wind Advisories have been issued for portions of Imperial County late Saturday afternoon into the evening, with the Advisory over far southwestern Imperial County remaining in effect through Sunday afternoon. Global models depict 700 mb winds peaking around 40-50 kts early Sunday morning over Southeastern California, so the strongest winds aloft will not coincide with peak daytime heating that would allow higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. Thus, the strongest winds will be confined to high terrain locations overnight. Strong winds spread east across Arizona Sunday with afternoon gusts to 30-40 mph likely (>70%) across portions of South-Central Arizona. Additional wind headlines may be needed for portions of Imperial County on Sunday, as well as the high terrain zones of South-Central AZ within and around Southern Gila County. Dust channels may develop across dust prone areas as a result of the strong winds this weekend, which can reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Longwave troughing will continue to be reinforced over the Intermountain West through Monday which will also feature near to slightly below normal temperatures and continued daytime breeziness across the region. Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures look to slowly rebound to slightly above normal, however the overall longwave troughing pattern across the Western CONUS looks to persist. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies with a period of southerly winds through early this afternoon before fully transitioning out of the west. Speeds will generally remain under 10 kts, although a few occasional gusts in the mid-teens cannot be ruled during the afternoon and early evening hours. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 10 kts, while southeasterly winds at IPL are expected to become westerly during the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds expected today. Afternoon highs will be slightly above normal today and tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will pass to the north of the region this weekend, leading to gusty winds, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Winds could gust in excess of 40 mph across parts of SE California Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday morning/afternoon, while gusts climb to 30-40 mph across southcentral AZ on Sunday. Afternoon min RHs will bottom out around 10-20% over the next few days, while overnight recoveries remain in the poor to fair category between 30-60% for most areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ563-566-567. && $$ DISCUSSION...Whittock AVIATION...Lojero/Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Smith ####018005477#### FXUS64 KEPZ 031731 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1131 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across this weekend and into much of next week. Afternoon breezes this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, will increase in speed Sunday and Monday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. The winds will create blowing dust and combined with the very dry air, critical fire weather conditions will also develop. The winds and critical fire conditions will likely continue Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current satellite/sfc obs show dry-line just east of Carlsbad- Roswell line and with typical slow nocturnal westward movement, will pass through those sites and near the eastern CWA border next few hours before mixing out back eastward. Aloft, a weak short wave trough over northern Utah will sweep east across the central Rockies and allowing afternoon breezes to develop this afternoon. High temps will remain around 4 to 7 degrees above normal. Much the same again Saturday as a short wave trough moves up in the sub-tropical jet that sweeps across southern New Mexico for more afternoon breezes. Winds begin a ramp up starting Sunday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. Winds become quite gusty with some blowing dust both Sunday and Monday. With fire conditions becoming critical many areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for the southern New Mexico zones. Winds over west Texas will be slightly lower so will leave those zones out for now. The story remains the same through the rest of the forecast period (Thursday); windy afternoons, very dry airmass with critical fire conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW250. There will be lots of SKC. The winds will be from the southwest and light to breezy (10 to 15 kts) with gust up to 25 kts through 01Z. The winds will become less breezy thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Very dry, warm, elevated to critical fire conditions will be with us at least through mid week of next week, with no prospects of rain through that period. Winds become gusty Sunday and persist through Wednesday. A fire watch will be issued for NM zones for Sunday, and more watches/RFW likely beyond Sunday. West Texas zones left of watch Sunday due to slightly lower winds, but by Monday and Tuesday their winds will be as high the rest of the forecast area. Min RHs: Lowland 7-12% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through Wednesday. Overnight recovery, especially the lowlands, will be poor. Vent rates excellent through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 88 54 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 66 40 67 37 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 85 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 76 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 48 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 86 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 50 89 53 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 90 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 81 53 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 85 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 87 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 43 74 40 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 76 42 76 40 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 75 42 76 38 / 0 0 10 10 Winston 79 43 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 84 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 80 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 83 39 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 78 35 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 79 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 84 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 77 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira ####018005652#### FXUS61 KRLX 031732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 132 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 129 PM Friday... As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present. Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe. However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions. Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday... More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday... The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes. Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM Friday... Widespread VFR conditions, ahead of an approaching cold front, will continue across all sites through at least 00Z. Meanwhile, showers and storms will develop and produce MVFR conditions along their path, starting across the Middle Ohio valley, and spreading east into WV through tonight. Unlimited ceilings will gradually descend to 5,000 feet by late afternoon or evening across PKB, HTS ans CRW, and then spread east across the rest of sites through tonight. Increasing moisture will saturate the column allowing for MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly across the higher elevations of our eastern mountains overnight into early Saturday morning. Light winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail through this evening, becoming light and variable, or even calm over protected river valleys overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the forecast. Periods of IFR visibility may be possible with the heavier shower or storm. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JLB ####018005165#### FXUS64 KMEG 031732 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The latest KNQA radar scan shows a decaying MCS slowly propagating east into eastern Arkansas at this hour. No lightning is currently detected, but that will likely change over the next hour or so as the atmosphere destabilizes. Downstream of the MCS, isolated to scattered showers have developed south of I-40. This activity should continue to fill in over the next couple of hours as daytime heating becomes maximized. Another area of convection has fired up to our south over the past hour and is slowly lifting into north Mississippi. As a result, increased PoPs mainly across north Mississippi to account for latest trends. Hi-res model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of the aforementioned decaying MCS. Nonetheless, the MCS will likely turn into an MCV by late afternoon and then rotate northeast into middle TN through this evening. A few strong storms could occur, especially near the TN River, where instability will be greatest. Made significant changes to PoPs from now through tomorrow morning. Increased PoPs along and south of I-40 through early afternoon, increased PoPs this evening across west Tennessee, and decreased areawide PoPs through the overnight hours. Due to heavy cloud cover along I-40 this morning, went ahead and also decreased high temperatures a few degrees. The rest of the forecast is on track. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS's are producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800 J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible this afternoon. Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined with sufficient instability may result the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday due to a lack of model consensus this morning. Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TSRA potential has decreased at MEM given a weakening upstream MCV and stabilizing effects of -RA and cloud cover. However, expect scattered SHRA to increase in coverage over north central and northeast MS, aided by surface heating and convergence along the northern periphery of an MCS over central MS. VFR over east central AR should spread into the MEM by late afternoon, and continue through the late evening inbound push. Clearing aloft and weak surface winds will favor low stratus formation at all TAF sites prior to 12Z. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB ####018005466#### FXUS65 KFGZ 031732 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1032 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the week. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week. && .UPDATE...Another warm, mostly dry and breezy day is in store for today. A few more high clouds will be noted across northern Arizona throughout the afternoon, but that will be the biggest change from yesterday to today. A strong trough is still looking to dip across the region over the weekend, increasing winds both Saturday and even more so on Sunday. We'll be looking at a wind- related product for much of our CWA for Sunday, but decisions on that will be decided with the afternoon forecast package. For now, the previous forecast remains largely on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures. As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great Basin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal. The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds! With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region. Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected. && .AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and variable through most of Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday. Southwest winds at 25-30 kts on Saturday strengthening to sustained at 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Mild and dry conditions persist for today and Saturday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average and widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. An increasing trend of southwest winds will develop and continue through Saturday. Expect gusts of 15 to 30 mph for this afternoon, followed by 25 to 35 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds become strong on Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday, especially across northeast Arizona, where minimum humidity of 15% is forecast. The winds decrease by Sunday night, remaining breezy 20 to 35 mph from the west for Monday and Tuesday afternoon's. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018007967#### FXUS64 KHGX 031733 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The current "lull" in shower/storm activity across SE Texas looks to be coming to an end, as isolated shower/storms have begun to develop across the region. High-resolution models indicate rain chances increasing throughout this morning as a shortwave passes overhead, tapping into rich PWs of 1.75-2.00" to bring more showers/thunderstorms across the region. While the mesoscale environment will make things messy, guidance seems to hint at two main "clusters" of storms developing with this next wave. The first cluster appears to develop over the southern half of our CWA, talking on an E/NE track. While closer to the primary moisture axis, models seem to suggest more modest rainfall rates in this cluster. Meanwhile, the second cluster looks to develop further north over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, tacking Southeasterly. Forcing with this system appears to be a tad more robust, located in the vicinity of the left exit region of the upper level subtropical jet, which also appears to coincide with a convergence zone with the 925mb LLJ during the afternoon. Some short term guidance suggests that rainfall rates would be higher in this cluster. Crest shows swaths of soil moisture in excess of 40% in areas north of I-10, peaking in excess of 70% over portions of Walker & Trinity counties. RFC 1hr FFG for much of this same area is around 1.5-2.5", though lower values of under 0.5" encompass portions of Liberty/Harris counties. Overall the heavy rainfall threat will still encompass most of SE Texas, with a Flood Watch remaining in effect for most areas North of I-10 until 7 PM Tonight. The threat of heavy rainfall remains greatest early this morning, where WPC still has SE Texas under a Moderate (level 3/4) to Slight (level 2/4) risk of Excessive Rainfall. The threat of excessive rainfall subsequently decreases during the late morning/early afternoon to a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) Risk. Flood Warnings and River Flood warnings are ongoing across the region, and any additional heavy rainfall may further exasperate hydrological problems. Be careful while driving and avoid any flooded roadways. There looks to be a short reprieve from rainfall later today, with showers/storms tapering off this evening/tonight. Guidance still suggests the possibility of showers/storms developing again early Saturday morning, though the risk of excessive rainfall remains Marginal (level 1/4) during this period, mainly in our North/Northwestern Zones. Ample moisture and lifting from disturbances aloft will enable rain chances and flooding concerns to persist into the long term forecast. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough moves north of the area. At the surface, a weak boundary (warm front) will lift northward into SE TX during the day. Increasing theta-e advection, sufficient moisture and instability will lead to increasing precipitation chances during the day. Unfortunately, the bulk of this activity looks to occur again north of I-10; however, rainfall totals are progged to remain around a half inch or less. The main weather story in the medium range evolves in the increased heat risk. A relatively dry weather is expected through most of the week. However, a quasi-zonal flow aloft, and south to southwest flow at the surface will lead to above normal temperatures. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens to mid 20s degC range during the week, suggesting highs in the 90s. Based on latest models solutions, Thursday is shaping up to be one of the hottest days with highs generally into the mid 90s. These values are within the 99th percentile of climatology per NAEFS and GEFS. These readings are progged to be 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Ongoing thunderstorms may continue to produce a few wind gusts as well as reduced visibilities due to heavy downpours, although by 18Z most activity should push to the northeast of area terminals. MVFR cigs will continue to linger into the afternoon and evening, with some IFR cigs not our of the question overnight. A few models hint at the potential for redeveloping storms overnight into tomorrow morning, but coverage appears sparse enough to not warrant inclusion in the TAF package at this time. Tomorrow, SE winds will remain near 10 knots (higher along the coast) with VFR cigs developing by the afternoon. Looking beyond the current TAF period, another period of unsettled weather appears possible Saturday night into Sunday. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Moderate southeast winds, seas between 3 to 6 ft and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Gusts from 15 to 20 knots will be possible at times, stronger around any thunderstorms. Therefore, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Conditions will continua today for all bays and Gulf waters. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6 ft should remain through the weekend and into the upcoming week. Seas can reach advisory levels (around 7 ft) at times well offshore. Rain and storm chances decrease during the weekend, bringing benign marine conditions into next week. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage: - Trinity River (Madisonville): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Major Flood Stage - Caney Creek (Splendora): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Minor forecast to go to Major - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major - Peach Creek (Splendora): Moderate forecast to go to Major - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Moderate forecast to go to Major Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.  JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 71 84 71 / 50 10 20 30 Houston (IAH) 83 72 84 73 / 90 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 / 40 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-212>214-300-313. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Cady MARINE...JM ####018007469#### FXUS63 KDMX 031733 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Early Morning Fog...Patchy to Areas Dense Fog through 8am - Showers & Storms Tonight and early Saturday || Dry Sunday - Storms Return Monday Evening With Some Severe Risk - Sun/Cloud Mix with passing Showers Much of Next Week; Turning Cooler by weeks end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .Short Term /Today through Saturday/... Confidence Short Term: Medium to High Active weather pattern for much of the seven day period, though we may luck out a few days next week with precipitation south/north of us. Rainfall is still needed in some areas, but not the southeast. The filling low that brought the moderate to heavy rainfall to the region yesterday has now migrated to the far Northern Plains. We had a front at H850 still over the eastern counties of the state at 00z, but that has now edged east a bit since then. Another weak area of low pressure is located near Springfield, MO at H850 with a third area of low pressure in northern New Mexico. The Gulf moisture stream has temporarily been pushed south of our area. However, a large plume of +10C to +15C dew points is just south of the region at this time. Meanwhile a weak ridge of high pressure will cool the boundary layer through early morning. Weak winds and ample boundary layer moisture from yesterdays rainfall continue to promote fog development. This will likely peak around 5 to 7 am over the area. Have updated the grids for areas of fog into the morning commute and will address conditions with either an SPS or maybe an advisory if it looks more problematic before 4 am. After the fog burns off, we will be rewarded with a rather pleasant day to round out an active week. Highs today with patchy fair weather cumulus will reach the lower to mid 70s as south southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 mph by mid to late afternoon. Tonight a wave currently showing up on water vapor imagery over Colorado/Idaho will track east. This will pull an area of low pressure and front east. At the same time, the moisture plume to our south will be pulled back northeast overnight. PWATs again increase to around 1.25 inches and warm cloud depths increase to over 10kft again from 06z to 18z Saturday. The models continue to indicate the main forcing at H700/H500 will peak from 06z to 12z across the area. As the wave reaches to near the IA MN border and the LLJ weakens significantly overnight, the showers and storms will weaken with time from 06z to 12z. Lesser rainfall is anticipated in the southeast, with amounts northwest of there from .75 to 1.5 inches and in the southeast about a quarter inch. Severe weather chances tonight are not high, but the southwest to the south central has some risk of an isolated stronger storm with a small risk of wind/hail. Shear is just strong enough for some rotation. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s in the far south. The lingering showers and isolated storms early tomorrow will generally exit the east by mid afternoon as high pressure builds south and east from the Northern Plains. We will be fighting lingering clouds in the afternoon mixed with some peaks of sunshine. Highs will reach the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. .Long Term /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Confidence: Medium Saturday night will be similar to this morning. Clearing skies may lead to some patchy fog once again. We will need to address that on Saturday to see how much dry air is advected southeast into the state. Otherwise, Sunday will be dominated by high pressure slowly drifting east by late afternoon. Other than some fair weather clouds, the day will again be very pleasant. H850 temperatures begin to warm due to return south flow. This will help push highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s by afternoon. We continue to see a southern stream wave in the southeast on Sunday, but there is really no sign of any moisture return across Iowa at that time, so have removed any mention of precipitation. Lows Sunday night dip to the 40s to lower 50s. A large scale trough over the western CONUS will begin to move east on Sunday. This feature has been consistently forecast by the medium range models to form an elongated trough with a double barrel low; one migrating to Alberta and the southern one wrapping up nearer eastern Nebraska. As the entire system deepens and occludes, the southern stream low will pull a wing of moisture/instability into the area later Monday afternoon and into the night. An impressive jet max will increase collocated columnar wind fields from H850 up to H500 by 06z Tuesday over the area. Winds will average 50-65kt through the column with some diffluence at H300. This, along with enough wind shear and instability to promote some rotation as well as a potential QLCS wind and tornado threat overnight. Obviously, we have several days and some changes may occur. Highs Monday will be mild ahead of the system with 70s across the board. The Euro and GFS are beginning to diverge a bit by Tuesday; GFS faster and the Euro slower. The Euro shows only a quick break early Tuesday from the overnight convection, with another speed max forecast to plow into an area of lingering instability across Iowa. This would tend to promote another area of strong to severe storms over mainly eastern Iowa and states east and northeast of our area. At this time, no solution is favored but the GFS generally trends too fast by days 4 to 5. Will need to remain aware of a second potential round of stronger storms later Tuesday near our area. Tuesdays highs are going to be difficult to nail down for a few days, due to the various solution differences. The most likely range would be the 60s northwest to the 70s southeast. There is some consensus for Wednesday into Thursday with regard to the Northern Plain system evolution. It appears that the large scale system will drift back into the Midwest with more clouds, some passing showers and cooler temperatures by the end of the period. Highs should generally be in the 60s to around 70 by Thursday with 70s still likely on Wednesday. There is some indication that more clouds and cooler conditions will persist late into the week and the following weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening at the terminals. Thereafter, an area of showers and thunderstorms will move into the state from Nebraska. Have introduced a few hour period of TSRA at DSM and VCTS at FOD where confidence is highest in thunder occurrence. Other sites have just maintained SHRA, or VCSH as the rain departs. Thunder as well as impacts to ceilings and visibility will need to be further assessed in updates. After the rain and storms depart, winds from the north-northwest will turn breezy. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...REV AVIATION...Ansorge ####018004469#### FXUS64 KLCH 031734 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase. CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight the most susceptible areas based on yesterday's rainfall and the latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it's not going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana. Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10 corridor. By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered convection to develop across much of the region. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon convection, but these would be isolated and short lived. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, accompanied by occasional gusty winds and mainly VFR ceilings. Overall this activity has lessened in coverage/intensity over the last couple of hours therefore impacts should be fairly minimal this afternoon. Tonight, rain comes to an end however, fog will become an issue after midnight and beyond. All terminals will have the potential to see fog, which will also be accompanied by MVFR/IFR ceilings. Thereafter, fog will start to burn off while our next round of convection is expected to spread into the region from the west. This activity should be much less in coverage/intensity than the last couple of days. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland. Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 65 86 66 / 80 20 30 10 LCH 81 70 84 71 / 80 10 10 10 LFT 82 70 86 71 / 80 10 10 0 BPT 82 71 84 72 / 60 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...17