####018004843#### FXUS63 KEAX 031740 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Monday evening and Monday night. Strong to severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a 500 mb low and associated troughing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Missouri and Kansas remain generally within west southwesterly flow aloft south of the primary 500 mb jet streak rounding the base of the northern stream trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary that was associated with yesterday's convection continues to exit to the east, with surface high pressure building in behind it. Current conditions across the county warning area are defined by temperatures primarily in the 50s with light northerly winds. It should be a relatively pleasant day today with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s with lower humidity and an easterly breeze. By tonight, a quick moving shortwave trough descends out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains, linking up with the aforementioned mid level low and troughing already present over the Upper Midwest, and sends another cold front toward the region. Convection allowing models (CAMs) suggest that convection should initiate along and ahead of the front over central Nebraska by this evening, with a line or broken line of showers and storms entering into NW Missouri and NE Kansas by around 3 to 4 am tomorrow morning. These storms should continue to move west to east with the front through the morning hours, exiting the region to the east by noon. The SPC HREF suggests up to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with along with around 30 to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, so it is possible that a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. SPC concurs with this, as they have the region highlighted within a marginal risk for severe storms for tonight into Saturday morning's convective activity. Additionally, these storms could bring another 0.5 to 0.75" of rain to the region, with locally higher amounts possible. The precise timing of the cold front will largely impact Saturday's high temperatures. As of now, the forecast highs range from as cold as the mid 60s over NW Missouri to as warm as the mid 70s toward mid Missouri where the cold front is progged to arrive later in the day. Cooler temperatures and some cloud cover should linger into Sunday. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible on Sunday, primarily south of Interstate 70, as a subtle shortwave trough develops over the Southern Plains and a stationary boundary near the MO/AR border begins to lift northward as a warm front. As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted. Differences continue with how the GFS and ECMWF handle the system, which will impact overall storm timing and specific severe weather hazards, but showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday evening/night, with strong to severe thunderstorms in play given mid 60s dewpoints, moderate instability, and sufficient deep layer shear. Additionally, locally moderate rainfall will once again be possible, and with the antecedent wet conditions, this could yield more flash and river flooding concerns. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation lingers Tuesday into Thursday as models suggest a closed mid level low remaining over the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow aloft over Missouri and Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees for Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain for a majority of the TAF period. Winds are currently out of the east with the surface high pressure to the north. Winds will shift to the south early tomorrow morning. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning along the cold front. Thunderstorms at the terminals were left out due to uncertainties on timing and placement. Winds will shift to the north by tomorrow afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Collier ####018008064#### FXUS61 KCLE 031740 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 140 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1230 PM Update... Currently there is an area of light rain showers along the I71 corridor gradually moving east, but no thunder is being reported. Behind this area of showers, some additional development is possible early afternoon, but the greater potential for thunder has shifted to between 22Z Friday to 02Z Saturday when an area of low level convergence is enhanced by an upper level shortwave moving east. Have adjusted PoPs with this update to reflect that shift in the forecast through tonight. In addition, temperatures across western counties have remained much cooler than originally forecast so have adjusted the high temperature forecast to reflect this. 930 AM Update... Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to reflect the cooler temperatures this morning, but overall highs remain the same. Some peaks of sun have allowed the eastern counties to warm faster this morning, so still expecting the warmest temperatures to be there. In addition, adjusted PoPs to account for the more scattered nature of the showers this morning and through this afternoon. Not expecting anything severe today, but cannot rule out a couple rumbles of thunder this afternoon. 630 AM Update... Showers have filled in along the warm front in southwest Ohio and are tracking north along the I-75 corridor. Sped up the rain slightly this morning and raised temperatures at some locations. Otherwise still expecting it to be a wet day with most areas seeing precipitation at some point. Previous discussion... Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make slow progress east across the area today with the warm front lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore. The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection. Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore to near 80 in the southeastern counties. A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the 1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8 degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of temperature expected. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Widespread VFR conditions will continue ahead of the approaching cold front through the first part of tonight. There is currently an area of light rain showers moving east across the area, but no thunder has been reported and visibilities have remained near 10SM. There remains a potential of scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours as an upper level shortwave enhancing lift over the area. With low confidence in the placement of these thunderstorms, opted to handle them with a TEMPO beginning at 21Z for KTOL and gradually push east. In the strongest storms, visibilities and ceilings may briefly fall to MVFR conditions, but should quickly rebound. Overnight tonight, the aforementioned pushes east, allow for much of the area to briefly experience dry conditions. Behind this boundary, ceilings will lower to MVFR heights and should persist for most sites through the end of the period. A chance of showers returns Saturday afternoon. Variable winds of 4-6 knots will persist across the area until Saturday morning when they become sustained at 5-10 knots from the southeast. The exception will be KTOL which will have a 5-10 knots wind from the northeast. Isolated gusts are possible near the end of the period for KERI due to downslope enhancement. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .MARINE... East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks to several frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or less for the bulk of the forecast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...Campbell/KEC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...26 ####018003176#### FXUS64 KOHX 031741 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1241 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening, and possibly into the overnight hours especially for KSRB and KCSV. Timing the best chance at seeing rainfall for each terminal using latest CAM guidance, but chances for -TSRA will remain possible through the afternoon and evening which will bring MVFR/IFR cigs and vis to impacted terminals. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots will become light overnight, and pick up again during the morning Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 65 85 / 50 70 50 70 Clarksville 63 80 64 82 / 50 50 40 70 Crossville 61 74 60 78 / 50 80 50 80 Columbia 63 80 64 84 / 60 70 50 80 Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 50 80 50 80 Jamestown 61 76 60 80 / 50 80 50 80 Lawrenceburg 63 79 63 82 / 60 50 50 80 Murfreesboro 64 79 63 84 / 40 70 50 80 Waverly 63 80 63 82 / 60 50 50 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Barnwell ####018005733#### FXUS63 KFSD 031742 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns late this afternoon/evening and continues through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts between a quarter to up to a half an inch are expected. Ponding on roads along with minor stream and river flooding are again possible. - Dry through the weekend with temperatures at or just below normal for this time of year. - A strong low pressure system looks to bring renewed storm chances and moderate to heavy rain on Monday but details remain uncertain as of now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Look for a quiet start to the day before a cold front/inverted surface trough encroaches on the area by late afternoon/evening. Although skies are clear very early this morning, clouds will increase during the day as the system approaches. Warm air advection overspreading the region will allow 850 temperatures to climb to 8- 10 degrees C over the southeastern CWA, and this will result in highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s over that area. Back to the west where clouds will be increasing and warm air advection is less pronounced on the back side of the inverted trough, highs will only reach the upper 50s to near 60 from east central SD back into south central SD. By late afternoon and early evening, a shortwave lifts into the area in a southwesterly upper level flow, as the inverted trough/frontal boundary begins to push to the east. Models indicate strong mid/low level frontogenesis developing through central SD during this time frame - with upper level lift increasing as a jet streak streams from west/central SD into MN. With that, a band of rain will develop in our far west around 22Z, then move eastward across the CWA during the overnight period. Models indicate any significant instability remaining bottled up over NE, so precipitation should be primarily in the form of rain, with only a low chance of isolated lightning strikes. Latest guidance would suggest rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch across the area through early Saturday morning. The majority of the CAMs have the band of rain to the east of our CWA by 12Z on Saturday morning. With the departure of this system, we look on track for a dry weekend as surface high pressure settles into the Northern Plains. The 850 mb thermal trough drops across the area on Saturday, and with cold air advection highs will fall back to the lower to mid 60s. By Sunday the surface ridge shifts into the Mississippi Valley, and in a returning southerly flow, temperatures will warm into the the mid and upper 60s. Our next significant chance of rain comes into the forecast for the beginning of next week. Models continue to indicate a strong upper level low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains by Monday. Still seeing model differences with regard to the evolution of this low, with the GFS/Canadian swinging the low into the Central Plains initially, then into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. The ECMWF offers a more northerly solution, taking the low directly into the Northern Plains on Monday - so there does remain some uncertainty in the details. While there will be the potential for thunderstorms with the system, confidence in severe chances is low. Both the GEFS/GEPS ensembles indicate moderate probabilities (40- 50%) of CAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG on Monday afternoon, though the ENS ensembles indicate only a 10-20% - again a reflection of differences in how the system evolves. As mentioned in the previous discussion, CIPS analogs do have low probabilities of severe storms in our area - the higher potential definitely remains to the south of our area - through the Central and Southern Plains. What does look more certain is the potential for at least moderate rain, with ensembles showing a 80-90% probability of at least a quarter inch of rain for the period Monday into Tuesday - and even a 40-50% probability of receiving at least a half an inch during the same time frame. Models indicate the upper level low remaining stagnant and rotating over the Northern Plains, albeit weakening, through the middle and end of next week. This will keep at least some chance of showers over our area through the period. Temperatures look to be just either side of normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions to begin the period will deteriorate to MVFR through the afternoon as clouds build in from the west. Winds are currently northwesterly at around 5 kts at KHON, and southwesterly around 10 kts at KFSD and KSUX. A cold front is just entering the area near KHON and will trek southeastward through the afternoon and evening. Winds behind the front will be northerly 5-10 kts with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts. The front is expected to be through KFSD between 04.00Z and 04.02Z, and KSUX between 04.05Z and 04.07Z. Rain showers will follow the front. Some have already begun to the west of our area and are expected to move eastward through the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but there could be occasional lightning strikes. Rain is expected to be fully clear of the area around mid morning Saturday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...AJP ####018009276#### FXUS61 KBOX 031742 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 142 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes today and Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with showers likely and cooler temperatures Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then brings dry and warm weather Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Unsettled weather is possible later Wednesday into Thursday, with the risk of showers but likely remaining mild. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A blanket of low clouds across the region, with the exception being over western MA/CT, where breaks in the overcast are occurring per latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations. This low level moisture is trapped beneath subsidence inversion across the area, courtesy of 1020+ maritime high. However, strong May sunshine will slowly erode the clouds and give way to breaks of afternoon sunshine, especially mid to late afternoon. Seasonable temps but feeling cooler across eastern MA with maritime NE flow, capping highs in the 50s this afternoon, response to water temps only in the 40s. Also, low level NE jet currently yielding gusts up to 25 mph over Cape Cod and the Islands, will diminish this afternoon. Hence, less wind this afternoon than this morning. Previous forecast captures these details nicely, therefore no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below. Previous Discussion... A broad anticyclone centered to the north/northeast of southern New England takes control today. A steady northeast flow will advect a cooler air mass over southern New England this afternoon with 925 hPa temps dropping to 5C or lower. With diurnal mixing this will translate to surface temps in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Downsloping from easterly flow over The Worcester Hills will support warmer temperatures in the upper 60s in the CT River Valley. After a cloudy start, a mid-level ridge axis building in from the west will be accompanied by a much drier air mass that will allow some clearing my late morning/early afternoon. Still expect FEW to SCT diurnal clouds this afternoon, but there should be a good amount of sunshine as well. Overall a seasonable day in southern New England. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Tonight and Tomorrow High pressure supports dry/quiet weather across southern New England tonight. Winds become light and variable which should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling across the region, though there is a question as to how much cloud cover there will be and thus cooling potential. Decided to blend the NBM25th percentile with CONSMOS to yield low temps in the low to mid 40s which is near to slightly below normal for early May in southern New England. High pressure remains in control on Saturday, so we continue to expect dry/quiet weather. However, continued onshore flow will support cloudiness across the region. Very little change in the air mass for Saturday, so expect high temperatures similar to what should be observed Friday afternoon with cooler temps along the coast in the mid 50s and warmer temps across the interior and CT River Valley ranging from the low to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Cool but dry Saturday night into Sunday, then numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. * Dry & warm Monday afternoon into Tuesday * Showers possible late Wed/Wed night into Thursday. Synoptic Overview... Tranquil stretch of weather in response to east coast ridging/above normal heights much of this forecast period. A brief interruption to the pattern, as northern stream trough briefly erodes this ridge with a risk of showers later Sunday into Monday morning. Then dry post frontal NW flow returns later Monday and into Tue. Progressive pattern follows with ridge building back into the northeast, but may be accompanied by warm frontal showers later Wed/Thu. Temperatures... Cool maritime ridge Sat night into Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs 55-60. 850 mb ensemble temp anomalies peak 18z Monday over southeast MA, in the transition to post frontal. Thus, looking at a warm day (provided clouds & showers exit before the PM hours) with WNW flow combined with warm temps aloft coupled with downsloping winds. Hence, coastline warms up too, including Cape Cod and Islands. Also, dew pts in the 50s will provide mild/warm feel to the airmass. Not much of a drop off in temps in the post frontal airmass, thus, another warm day Tuesday with NW flow, warm temps aloft combined with downsloping NW winds. Likely not as warm Wed/Thu but probably above normal(60s). Precipitation... High amplitude, deep layer ridge with 1030 mb high from the maritimes into eastern MA, provides dry weather Sat night into Sunday morning. Then approaching trough provides cyclonic flow and increasing/above normal PWATs yield numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Ensembles offering likely probs (60- 70% for 0.25 inches of rainfall, with chance probs (30-40%) for up to 0.50 inches of rainfall. Timing for widespread showers, highest PWATs from 06z-12z Monday per ensembles. Post frontal with dry slot during Monday afternoon. Drier than normal PWATs linger into Tue, then becoming unsettled Wed/Thu with moisture plume advecting across the region (PWATs up to 200% of normal). Too far out in time for details, but looking at height anomalies from the ensembles, anomalous lows over Newfoundland and the Dakotas, may result in a slower ridge advecting across SNE mid of next week. Thus, high amplitude pattern may support dry weather lingering thru much of Wed, especially eastern MA/RI. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00Z...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing. VFR across the CT River Valley, but still working on eroding the MVFR/borderline VFR conditions across central MA/RI into eastern MA. Should see these ceilings continue to lift/scatter out by roughly 19-21Z. This should take the longest across the Cape terminals, though think ACK remains MVFR through the forecast with onshore flow. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions to start with light and variable winds. There is a possibility for MVFR stratus to spread back in with enough onshore flow aloft. Timing wise think it would be after 06Z. Could see patchy fog across the typical prone areas in the Merrimack Valley, but have only hinted at for now. Tomorrow...Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR may improve to VFR for much of the day. Some uncertainty here given we are still stuck in persistent onshore easterly flow at 5-10 kts. Confidence higher for VFR away from eastern MA coastline. KBOS TAF...High confidence this afternoon. Lowers to moderate tonight. Improving to VFR by 19Z with NE to E winds. Winds light and variable tonight with enough onshore flow aloft that MVFR stratus could spread back in roughly 04-06Z. Could improve to VFR as boundary layer mixes roughly 13-15Z, but uncertain on this given the onshore wind component. KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR through the forecast. Could see some borderline MVFR ceilings spread in 02-04Z tonight. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: Chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Today through Tomorrow High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal waters through Saturday. Winds will prevail out of the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RM NEAR TERM...Nocera/BW/RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...Loconto/BW/BL MARINE...Nocera/RM ####018007425#### FXUS62 KGSP 031742 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 142 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure moves off the Carolina coast as a front approaches from the west then stalls over our region for the weekend. This front will result in periodic thunderstorms and showers starting today and lingering through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM EDT Friday: Height falls will impact the East through the near term, with associated slow-moving/zonally-oriented frontal zone expected to sag toward our forecast area later today into tonight. Deep layer lift...albeit relatively weak...will approach the CWA late today into tonight, while SW flow will result in increasing levels of moisture, with forecast soundings indicating precipitable waters will be in the ~90th percentile category for the day. Therefore, conditions will become increasingly favorable for convective development as the day progresses. Scattered showers are moving into the mountains west of the French Broad and the Upper Savannah River valley, but are dissipating as they try to move east of there. Showers and isolated storms are developing and moving NE across the area. Otherwise, high and mid level clouds will continue to increase through the day...resulting in cooler conditions than on Thursday, while mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor. As such, surface-based instability will be quite tame at 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon. Meanwhile, wind shear parameters will be very unremarkable, with 0-6km bulk shear ~20 kts. So, the conditional probability of severe storms is about as close to 0 as it gets. There could be locally heavy rainfall with deeper cells and/or if an area of training cells manages to materialize. However, dry antecedent conditions should preclude a notable excessive rainfall threat. While a general decrease in coverage and intensity of convection is expected this evening, high moisture content combined with continued modest lift is expected to result in scattered convection (primarily showers) persisting well into the overnight, with perhaps a locally heavy rainfall event or two possible. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above climo through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday: Upper ridging will remain over the East Coast on Saturday before gradually pushing east into the western Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. At the sfc the forecast area will be caught in-between two sfc highs (one over New England/SE Canada and one over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest) as a cold front slowly approaches out of the west. The front should remain north and west of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night. This messy pattern will lead to 850 mb S/SW'ly flow allowing for an influx of Gulf moisture across Southeast through the weekend, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Went with likely to categorical PoPs Saturday through early Sunday evening and chance PoPs Sunday night. With PWATs expected to climb well above climo (~1.6 inches east of the mtns and ~1.3 inches across the mtns) and weak shear (~10-15 kts) leading to slow storm motion, heavy rainfall will accompany shower and thunderstorm activity. However, the overall threat for flash flooding looks to remain low due to dry antecedent conditions. Nuisance flooding cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for areas that see heavy rainfall repeatedly track over the same locations. SBCAPE looks to range from ~700-1500 J/kg each afternoon per the HRRR, GFS, Canadian and ECMWF. The NAM and NAMNest are much more bullish regarding SBCAPE through the weekend but this looks overdone as widespread cloud cover from the influx of Gulf moisture should limit destabilization somewhat. Thus, the severe potential looks rather low through the weekend thanks to the low wind shear and increased cloud cover. The SPC Day 2 and 3 Severe Weather Outlooks have the GSP forecast area in a general thunder risk which looks reasonable at this time. However, a few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for any areas that see breaks in cloud cover. Highs on Saturday will end up near climo to a few degrees below climo thanks to SSE'ly sfc winds, convection and cloud cover. Highs on Sunday will climb to around 3-5 degrees above climo thanks to sfc winds turning more S/SSW. Lows through the short term will end up around 10-13 degrees above climo thanks to clouds limiting radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday: The workweek will kick off similar to the weekend as the aforementioned cold front remains stalled over the Lower Midwest/Ohio Valley region. This will allow for another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Despite SBCAPE looking slightly higher on Monday compared to the weekend, widespread cloud cover and weak shear should linger, allowing the severe weather threat to remain low. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday's, ending up around 3-5 degrees above climo. Lows Monday night will remain around 10-12 degrees above climo thanks to some lingering cloud cover. Drier conditions may return for most of the forecast area, with the exception of the NC/TN border, Tuesday through early Thursday as the stalled front gradually lifts northward across the Ohio Valley/eastern Great Lakes region. Convective chances increase again late Thursday into Friday as an upper low approaches out of the northwest. Highs should climb into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday through Friday, which is around 7- 12 degrees above climo. Lows should remain around 10-12 degrees above climo through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and isolated storms are developing across the area and moving NE this afternoon. Have added TEMPOs at the locations most likely to see activity. KCLT with just SHRA for now, while KAVL/KHKY has TSRA. A cell may affect the SC sites but will amend as needed. S to SW wind expected through the afternoon. Activity diminishes somewhat this evening but returns overnight. Have PROB30s in place for that. Cig and vsby restrictions develop overnight as well, so have MVFR to MVFR before 12Z and IFR after 12Z. Light and variable wind expected overnight with S to SE wind for all but KAND, where it will be ENE, Saturday. Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through early next week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RWH ####018011725#### FXUS65 KABQ 031744 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1144 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warmer conditions will prevail today, with a few late day strong to severe storms closer to the Texas border. A backdoor front will move southwest across the area Friday night through Saturday, bringing some cooling and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley. The front may trigger storms across north central and eastern NM Saturday, but storms across southeast NM may become severe. A strong disturbance will approach Sunday and move over Monday, bringing very windy conditions with areas of blowing dust both days. Stronger westerly winds will persist Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance, but will trend down by Wednesday. A cold front may move south across the state toward the end of next week, bringing chances for showers and storms to eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A return flow of low level moisture has spread low clouds across much of the east central and northeast plains and highlands this morning. These will retreat gradually from the west from mid morning through the early afternoon. However, an upper level trough passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies will work with this moisture, and high temperatures a few to around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, to spark scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast and east central areas this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe cells will be possible near the eastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. In addition, some garden variety thunderstorms will probably get started as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Tonight, a moist backdoor front pushing south and southwestward through the eastern plains will probably trigger isolated additional storms. And, there will probably be areas of low clouds again across the east tonight into early Saturday morning. Around sunrise Saturday, the backdoor front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe southward. Gusts could peak around 40 mph in Santa Fe and up to 50 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque early Saturday morning. A disturbance crossing the forecast area from the southwest will interact with all the moisture to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across north central, east central and southeast areas on Saturday afternoon, as well as mostly dry and gusty storms over the continental divide region of northwest NM. Shear and instability look strong enough for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southern Roosevelt and eastern Chaves Counties, even with high temperatures a few to around 11 degrees below 30-year averages over the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs near to around 5 degrees above the averages are forecast central and west. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Any remaining convection Saturday evening will follow a normal diurnal downturn and/or move east off into west TX. Low stratus/fog development is likely late Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain, as a thin near-surface moisture layer holds over the area. A potent upper level low will move east from the Great Basin toward the central/southern Rockies Sunday through Monday, spreading very strong winds aloft over the region. The timing of the approach may allow for a few storms to take off near the TX/OK borders Sunday afternoon after a dryline sharpens. However, near-surface moisture depth may be insufficient to fuel deeper convection. Will carry a slight chance mention of storms across the eastern plains for Sunday afternoon and any storms that do develop will likely become severe given impressive 0-6km bulk shear and strong dryline forcing. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft on Sunday will bring very windy conditions to much of the area, with blowing dust likely by afternoon across central and western NM where winds are forecast to reach at least advisory criteria. Strong westerly flow will prevail Monday behind the upper level trough/low ejecting out of the central/southern Rockies, with more areas of blowing dust. Winds are currently forecast to reach advisory criteria on Monday, but the winds aloft are strong enough to produce high wind gusts along and immediately east of the central mountain chain and near the CO border from Raton to near Clayton. Strong westerly flow and windy to very windy conditions will persist Tuesday as broad cyclonic flow prevails across the region. Winds will finally begin to trend down Wednesday and be much less by Thursday as a cold front moves southwest across the area. The front may interact with weak troughing over the region to produce a round of showers and storms late Thursday into early next Friday, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The primary aviation impacts the next 24 hrs will be storms over northeast NM this afternoon, a sharp northerly wind shift across eastern NM tonight, MVFR low cigs and light showers overnight and Saturday morning across eastern NM, then strong canyon winds at KABQ around sunrise. High-based showers and storms will develop along the I-25 corridor between KRTN and KLVS by 20Z then shift east toward KCAO and KTCC by 00Z before exiting into TX thru 03Z. The strongest wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt are likely from KCAO to KTCC between 1am and 5am followed by low cig development in the wake of the front east of the central mt chain. Gap winds are expected to peak at KABQ near 15Z with an Airport Weather Warning highly likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Higher humidities over eastern areas with a chance for showers and thunderstorms today, will spread into central areas as well on Saturday enabling thunderstorm chances to spread further west as well. Isolated gusty and dry storms are forecast across the continental divide region of northwest NM on Saturday afternoon, with scattered to isolate wetting storms on the eastern plains. A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop Sunday through mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire weather conditions. With this forecast package will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor westward on Sunday, as well as the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, where critical conditions will be favored. The critical conditions will spread to the plains as well starting Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 78 45 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 72 33 73 36 / 0 0 30 20 Cuba............................ 71 41 69 39 / 0 0 20 10 Gallup.......................... 73 36 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 38 71 39 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 74 36 74 35 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 70 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 66 36 / 0 0 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 67 46 / 0 0 20 20 Pecos........................... 71 42 65 42 / 10 0 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 43 64 41 / 5 0 40 20 Red River....................... 62 31 60 33 / 10 0 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 63 25 58 31 / 10 0 40 30 Taos............................ 72 34 69 36 / 5 0 30 20 Mora............................ 70 36 62 38 / 10 0 30 40 Espanola........................ 79 44 76 46 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 73 47 69 45 / 5 0 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 72 44 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 53 75 51 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 50 79 48 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 52 77 49 / 0 0 5 5 Belen........................... 83 47 80 45 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 82 50 78 49 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 82 47 79 46 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 82 50 78 48 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 82 47 79 45 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 77 50 72 48 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 81 50 77 49 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 47 66 45 / 0 0 10 10 Tijeras......................... 74 47 69 45 / 0 0 10 10 Edgewood........................ 75 42 69 44 / 0 0 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 37 70 41 / 5 0 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 72 39 64 41 / 10 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 75 42 70 42 / 0 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 75 43 71 41 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 79 51 77 49 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 69 44 / 0 0 10 10 Capulin......................... 67 34 60 41 / 30 10 10 20 Raton........................... 72 36 66 41 / 20 5 20 20 Springer........................ 74 38 65 43 / 20 0 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 73 38 64 41 / 10 0 20 30 Clayton......................... 72 42 64 46 / 30 30 5 30 Roy............................. 73 41 64 45 / 20 10 10 30 Conchas......................... 82 47 72 49 / 20 10 10 40 Santa Rosa...................... 80 44 67 47 / 20 5 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 81 47 70 49 / 20 10 20 40 Clovis.......................... 83 52 70 51 / 20 10 30 50 Portales........................ 85 52 70 51 / 20 10 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 84 48 71 50 / 20 5 20 40 Roswell......................... 91 56 81 56 / 5 0 20 30 Picacho......................... 84 48 73 49 / 5 0 10 20 Elk............................. 81 47 77 46 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42 ####018004667#### FXUS64 KTSA 031744 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Regional doppler radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms have shifted east of the forecast area this morning. Behind the departing complex, visible satellite depicts low-level stratus remaining intact across portions of eastern OK and northwest AR. Latest model guidance has the stratus deck eroding/scattering out by the early afternoon hours, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies anticipated thereafter for most locations. Light northeasterly winds this morning will veer out of the southeast by early this afternoon. As a result, this will maintain a fairly moist and humid airmass into this evening, with dewpoints reaching the mid- upper 60s by sunset for most locations. With a marginally unstable airmass still in place, daytime heating may cause a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Despite marginally sufficient (25-35kts) 0-6km bulk shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates into this afternoon, weak low-level winds and lack of a significant lifting mechanism should keep any convection that develops spotty and sub-severe through the afternoon. But since it is early May, will monitor trending conditions closely. Otherwise, unseasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail today, with high temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Additional storms will develop to the northwest later today along a another cold front that will move southeast into the area late tonight and into Saturday. Severe potential with this round of storms appears limited as activity begins to diminish Saturday afternoon. This boundary will stall to the south of the area late Saturday. Another round of storms will likely develop along the stalled boundary as an upper wave begins to move through the southern plains Saturday night. This activity will spread into the area late Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Storms should be out of the area by late in the day Sunday, and things should be quiet for the most part until later in the day Monday and Monday night. A strong upper system will lift through the mountain west region and into the high plains Monday evening, with storms expected to develop along the dry line to the west. These storms will track east with the highest chances for storms across NE OK and NW AR Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the rest of the forecast period, will continue with low PoPs across much of the area as weak disturbance traverse the area within strong mid level flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low-level stratus continues to blanket portions of northeast OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. However, latest visible satellite trends show the clouds beginning to scatter and break apart. Anticipate cloud bases to further lift and VFR to prevail by 19-20z at all TAF sites, with low-moderate confidence on exact timing. A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon. However, removed the mention of SHRA/TSRA in TAFs through the afternoon, with the precipitation probabilities too low to include at this time. Low-level stratus will likely return late tonight/early Saturday morning, especially across the AR terminals. Another round of convection is expected to develop north of the area and move northwest-to-southeast across the region early Saturday morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering through much of the morning Saturday. Southeast winds will shift out of the north as a cold front moves into the area late in the TAF period. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 63 78 61 / 10 30 80 50 FSM 82 64 81 66 / 20 10 70 40 MLC 81 65 79 64 / 20 20 60 60 BVO 79 60 77 56 / 10 40 80 40 FYV 81 60 80 60 / 20 10 70 40 BYV 79 60 79 60 / 20 10 70 30 MKO 79 62 77 62 / 20 20 70 50 MIO 79 61 77 59 / 10 30 70 30 F10 79 62 78 62 / 20 20 80 60 HHW 79 65 79 64 / 20 20 60 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...67