####018004210#### FXUS63 KTOP 031745 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of thunderstorms moves in from the west around/after midnight tonight, with potential for a few strong to severe storms. - Greater potential for severe weather Monday as a strong upper trough approaches. - Temperatures remain near to a bit above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A brief break in rain chances this morning, as high pressure has moved in across the region. Light winds and clear skies, along with lingering moisture from our recent rain, have allowed for some patchy fog to develop in lower lying areas. This will linger until an hour or two after sunrise when deeper mixing occurs. The daytime hours will remain dry and mostly sunny, with temperatures warming into the 70s. Can't completely rule out an evening storm north of I- 70 as CIN lowers with increasing moisture/heating, but the better storm chances arrive later overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. There is increasing confidence that a line of storms will initially be ongoing across northwestern Kansas, moving into north- central Kansas after midnight. Given around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The linear storm mode will keep damaging winds as the primary severe threat, with some isolated quarter size hail also possible. CIN increases with time and eastward extent, so expecting a gradual decrease in severe probabilities while the line moves across northeast and east-central Kansas. The front then moves east of the area by late morning Saturday. Just a few lingering shower chances by Saturday afternoon as cooler and drier air is advected southward. More rain chances arrive Sunday with a weak shortwave passing just to our south. Instability remains very limited so not expecting much if any severe weather. Severe weather chances significantly increase for Monday as a deep upper low becomes negatively tilted as it ejects eastward over the central Plains. Guidance is in good agreement in 65-68 degree dewpoints ahead of the dryline/cold front, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. One possible fly in the ointment would be if the strong upper forcing allows morning or early afternoon convection to develop and decrease instability for the afternoon. But otherwise, wind profiles strongly support supercells. These would initially develop off the dryline across central Kansas during the afternoon, moving northeast during the evening, and would be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Several days to allow the details to come into place, but certainly a day to watch. Tuesday into Wednesday, the deep upper trough becomes centered over the Northern Plains, with several embedded shortwaves moving around its southern periphery. By this point, roughly 80% of ensemble guidance keeps the now quasi-stationary front southeast of the area. This would also keep severe weather chances southeast of our area, with temperatures staying near to slightly above average. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Cloud cover will increase this afternoon. A few models are showing MVFR conditions, while others are not. Have kept VFR conditions through the afternoon for now, but will amend if CIGS are lower than currently expected. TS will be the next concern as a line of storms is expected to impact airports late tonight/early Saturday morning. Timing may need to be tweaked slightly, but current thinking for impact timing is the 09-12Z timeframe as storms move from west to east across the area. Wind gusts to 30kts can't be ruled out with storms, with isolated higher gusts. Lingering MVFR CIGS could occur through the morning hours before VFR returns late this period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Teefey ####018005272#### FXUS63 KFGF 031747 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 this afternoon then a nice weekend in store. - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cumulus field has developed across Eastern North Dakota and West Central Minnesota along with some thin mid level stratus in our southern counties. There are two waves going through our area, one by the international border and the other slowly moving towards our southern counties to create some rain chances this afternoon with some possible embedded thunderstorms. UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Winds are starting to gust to 25 to 35 mph along parts of the Red River Valley and Devils Lake Basin. Clouds are also starting to work their way across Eastern North Dakota and coming up from the south as well. There were some brief showers near Cando and Langdon this morning. Still a chance to see some isolated thunderstorms with lightning as the main threat this afternoon/evening. UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers continue to shift north and east affect just the northern tier of counties along the intl border with the low now centered in far southwest Ontario. No changes to the forecast with all aspects on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers coming to an end for most this morning with a few remaining along the international border yet. Clouds continue to clear quickly behind the rain with at least a few hours of sun likley south of HWY 200 today. Along HWY 2 and north another piece of energy will rotate around the parent trough with associated PVA and low level cold air advection causing the formation of scattered showers/thundershowers across northern areas this afternoon. Resulting CAPE from the steepening lapse rates could top 100-200 j/kg. Not unreasonable to see some small hail with this though shallow storm tops to <6km and minimal depth in the HGZ would likely limit any hail that does occur to pea size. Not expecting much in terms of rain accumulation this afternoon with the 25th/75th showing 0.10" to 0.25" primarily north of HWY 2 though a few of these showers depending on the exact track of the wave could make it a bit further south towards HWY 200. This evening a band of h850 fgen in South Dakota will shift east bringing shower chances across the far southern valley into west central Minnesota though a quick forward speed should limit amounts to under 0.25". Shortwave ridging then begins to move in behind this pair of Friday waves with the bulk of the clouds clearing through the day on Saturday leaving a nice end to the weekend with highs climbing into the 60s and an outside chance (10%) at 70s in the valley. The nice weather doesnt last long however as another upper low barrels east from the rockies becoming very negatively tilted as it reaches the Dakotas Monday. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level flow wil also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. CWASP values are currently forecast to be the highest we have seen yet this year with CSU ML highlighting our area in a 5% chance for severe weather. Whether this threat materializes will remain to be seen but between the strong kinematics and moisture return at least a few necessary ingredients will likely be in place. Taking a step back and just looking at QPF probs best chances for over 1" look to be in western and central North Dakota through Wednesday AM. 25th/75th would generally result in 0.5-1.5" for the forecast area. Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Ceilings will float between 2000-4000ft most areas due to a wave moving through in the Northern and southern edges of our CWA. KDVL and KBJI will likely move between these categories. The most uncertainty is with KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF that lie in the middle area of these two waves and will mostly likely stay VFR. However, Any deviation of the waves could result in MVFR conditions and possible rain showers through this evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...MM ####018006963#### FXUS65 KPUB 031748 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1148 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Plains today with one or two strong to severe storms possible, generally north and east of a line from La Junta to Kim. - Critical Fire Weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley today. - Strong and gusty winds for much of the area Sunday and Monday. - Critical fire weather conditions will likely return to portions of the area starting Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the Rockies, with another short wave trough translating through the faster flow across the Intermountain West at this time. Regional radars and satellite imagery indicating mid and high level clouds streaming across the Rockies, with a few waa showers lifting out across the eastern I-70 Corridor into northern portions of Kiowa County at this time. Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft through the day today, as the embedded wave across the Intermountain West continues into the Northern Rockies. This will lead to lee troughing developing and deepening across the southeast Plains through the afternoon, with breezy south to Southeast low level winds advecting low level moisture into southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the mid 40s to lower 50s supporting CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, generally north and east of a La Junta to Kim line. Bulk shears of 30-40kts will be present across the southeast Plains this afternoon, and with steep lapse rates and convergence along the expected advancing dry line, could see one or two strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds up to 60 mph and half dollar sized hail across the southeast Plains this afternoon. Latest HREF paintball data indicates a few helicity swaths developing from 2 pm to 8 pm across the plains, with storms possibly congealing into a large convective cluster associated with the passing waves cold front pushing south across eastern Colorado through the evening. West of the dryline, breezy west to southwest winds can be expected this afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the San Luis Valley into portions of the Southern I-25 Corridor, with current fuel status supporting the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley from 11 AM to 8 PM. Passing cold front brings gusty northerly winds of 25 to 45 mph across the plains this evening, with a low chance of of an isolated shower across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa into the late evening. Clearing skies through the overnight hours could also bring some patchy frost to areas along the Palmer Dvd early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft as another Pacific low system pushes onshore across northern CA. The frontal passage Friday evening will swing surface winds around to an easterly direction Sat morning, pushing remnant moisture back towards the higher terrain. This will fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with more activity expected across the mts and immediate adjacent plains, and SPC has the entire forecast area under a General Thunder area. Plan on high temps in the 60s for most locations. Sunday and Monday...Ensembles still indicate that the most likely track of this next system will be across the Great Basin on Sunday, then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT Sunday night through Monday. The system strengthens considerably, and reaches eastern MT by early Tue morning. This track is expected to produce strong southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday, then strong west winds on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the warmest day of the extended period with the strong southerly flow, and humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated enough that a fire weather highlight should not be needed. However, on Monday the strong westerly flow should force humidity levels downward, and critical fire weather conditions will make a return. As for precipitation chances, Sunday starts with some lingering isolated showers near the Kansas border, but by the afternoon activity kicks up across the higher terrain, with the best chances along the Continental Divide where 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the peaks will be possible. By Monday, with the westerly flow, the best chances for any shower activity will be the central mts, spreading to the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Look for highs on Sun in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. On Mon, temps will only climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low will slowly cross ND on Tue, pushing into MN late Wed. Strong westerly flow is expected to continue across the forecast area both days, with isolated showers mainly restricted to the central mts. Fire weather highlight are anticipated for portions of the area both days, as temps warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to near 80F for the plains. Thursday...A shortwave rotating around the northern low will push a cold front south into CO Wed evening, setting the stage for cooler temps for the forecast area as well as isolated to scattered convection chances returning to the eastern plains. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. There will be some lower decks moving in later which will reduce CIGs to MVFR criteria during the morning hours from approximately 11 to 13Z. CIGs will should remain elevated enough to be above MVFR criteria for KPUB from 13 to 15Z. FROPA will occur for KCOS around 01Z and KPUB around 02Z, which will result in a windshift with gusty NE'ly winds thereafter, with gusts close to 40 kts at both terminals. Winds will be synoptically influenced at all terminals. There is very low confidence (less than 10 percent) of SHRA or possibly TSRA to be in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB right around the time of FROPA, although due to the lack of confidence, this was left out of the TAF. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...STEWARD ####018005866#### FXUS63 KILX 031748 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms diminish from the west during this morning, with isolated showers lingering near the Wabash river this afternoon. Cooler highs in the mid 70s today. - Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms from mid Saturday afternoon into mid Sat evening over all but far eastern IL for gusty winds and hail. - An active weather pattern re-establishes itself Monday through Thursday, with signals showing risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday and Wednesday especially during afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Predawn surface map shows a cold front near I-55 with scattered showers along and east of the front and more numerous near the Indiana border. IR Satellite loop shows clouds over much of CWA while clearing skies just nw of Galesburg, Macomb and Quincy. Temperatures ranged from mid to upper 50s west of the IL river, to the mid 60s from I-70 southeast. Cold front to push east of IL/IN border by mid morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms diminishing as cold front passes by. Though isolated showers still possible over the Wabash river valley this afternoon. Clouds to decrease over nw half of CWA during today, with mostly sunny skies by mid to late afternoon from I-55. Meanwhile skies stay cloudier over southeast part of CWA today. Winds turning NE behind the front at 5-15 mph so much lighter than past few days. Cooler highs today in the mid 70s, except upper 70s possible from highway 50 south in southeast IL. Weak high pressure ~1018 mb over western IA drifts over WI and lower MI by sunset and ridging into central IL much of tonight and bringing fair weather. Some fog development noted east over parts of upper Wabash river valley of Indiana and gets close to Vermilion county/Danville area by sunrise Sat. Will keep fog out of forecast overnight and early Sat morning but will need to watch areas near the Indiana border. Lows overnight range from the lower 50s west of I-55 (upper 40s by Galesburg), to the lower 60s in southeast IL. A short wave trof over the northern Rockies by Idaho and western MT to track eastward into the eastern plains by midday Saturday and push a cold front east through central IL late Sat afternoon and evening. Air mass gets unstable Sat afternoon with CAPES rising to 1000-1800 j/kg by mid to late Saturday afternoon while wind shear values are 15-25 kts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop during mid/late Sat afternoon and continue into Sat evening. SPC introduced a marginal risk of severe storms over all but far eastern/se IL from Watseka to Charleston to Mt Vernon west for gusty winds and hail from mid Sat afternoon through mid Sat evening. Highs Saturday around 80F to lower 80s with dewpoints back up in the low to mid 60s. Convection chances diminish overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning and mainly 20-30% chance in southeast IL by Sunday morning. A short wave moving ne into the Ozarks late Sunday to increase chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms in mainly southeast IL during Sunday afternoon with isolated showers possible late Sunday afternoon about as far north as I-72. Instability is weaker on Sunday so not in a threat of severe storms on Sun afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday in the lower 70s over central IL and 74-78 in southeast IL. The weak short wave trof lifts into southern/sw IL by dawn Monday and into the central Ohio river valley late Monday afternoon, and likely brings showers and chance of thunderstorms into southeast IL Monday while lower chances over northern CWA. SPC day4 outlook for Mon/Mon night keeps severe risk area well west of IL over the central plains centered over central KS. Highs Mon in the mid to upper 70s. Forecast models continue to show a large/strong mid/upper level trof evolving over the Rockies early next week, and ejecting strong low pressure from CO into ND Tue night and into the upper MS river valley Wed night. There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms over IL from this large storm system Tue through Thu with strong to severe storms possible Tue afternoon into Wed evening. SPC Day5 outlook has 15% risk of severe storms over IL Tue afternoon/evening. SPC Day5 outlook has 15% risk of severe storms se of IL on Wed/Wed night, but would not be surprise to see this expanded ne into parts of central and southeast IL Wed afternoon/evening as instability is decent on Tue and Wed with strong wind shear in place. Warm highs Tue/Wed in the lower 80s, except upper 70s nw of the IL river on Wed. Best chances of convection along with possible strong to severe storms shift se of CWA on Thu though still have low pops on Thu especially se half of CWA. Cooler and less humid air arrives on Friday and next Saturday with seasonable highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Areas of broken stratus will continue to be observed in the vicinity of the surface cold front. The BMI/DEC/CMI terminals may experience broken MVFR ceilings through 23z/6pm before the front departs further east and skies clear out. Surface winds will become light and variable overnight with patchy fog developing. Coverage and confidence in fog remain too low to include mention in this TAF cycle. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018006768#### FXUS63 KGRB 031748 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday evening with more showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. - Slightly elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across northern WI, this afternoon and again Sunday and Monday afternoons due to RHs dropping into the 20-35 percent range. - A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday Main forecast issues will be dealing with lingering low clouds/fog early today, relative humidities in the 20/30s this afternoon and any fire weather issues, and shower/thunder chances Saturday afternoon. Today...rain showers associated with a shortwave trough and weak low pressure/front will exit east of the area early this morning, with only some patchy fog/drizzle/sprinkles left around sunrise across mainly northern/eastern WI. As drier air advects in from the west, look for any light precip to end/exit, with the fog and low clouds mixing out through the morning hours. Plenty of sunshine is expected in the late morning and afternoon as high pressure builds across the western Great Lakes. Mixing to at least 4000-5000 ft will support warmer temperatures, with highs climbing into the upper 60s to middle 70s, and west winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph (strongest in northern WI) and low relative humidity (20-35 percent) in the sandy soil areas. If we can mix closer to 7000 ft, as the RAP suggests, wind gusts would be a little higher and RH's a little lower. The recent rainfall, along with the continued green-up, will limit the overall fire weather concern. However, locations across northern WI may see slightly elevated fire weather conditions as green-up has been the slowest, the deepest mixing is expected and winds will be the highest this afternoon. Tonight...dry conditions continue as high pressure slides east of the region. Mostly clear skies are expected during the evening, with mid and high clouds spreading east across the area overnight. Lows look to mainly be in the 40s with a light south/southeast wind. Saturday...a dry start to the day is expected, but skies look to become cloudy through the morning. An area of rain showers will spread west to east across the area during the morning, as another shortwave trough and frontal boundary approach from the west. This first area looks to be weakening as it traverses the area, but additional showers look to develop later in the morning and afternoon ahead of the front. Rain amounts look to remain under a quarter inch for most spots. As for thunder chances, assuming the front pushes through in the afternoon, should get at least 500 J/kg of CAPE across eastern WI by early-mid afternoon. This would be enough to support a few storms, but severe weather is not expected. Will carry a slight chance for thunder in the afternoon across parts of central and eastern WI. Light south/southeast winds will increase in the morning ahead of the front, then shift to the west/northwest behind the front in the afternoon. Winds could get a little gusty, up to around 35 mph ahead of the front, but will be difficult to break into the inversion to mix down the stronger winds. Will hold gusts closer to 20-25 mph for now. As CAA arrives behind the front, better mixing will promote gusts to ~25 mph. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday Main focus of the extended period revolves around a well organized cyclone that is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early to middle of next week. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two may linger Saturday night into early Sunday morning across far eastern WI as an upper-level trough and surface cold front depart from the region. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over area Sunday returning dry and calm conditions to the region through at least Monday afternoon. The ridge will also ushering in a drier air mass which may lower RHs to around 30 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons. These lower RHs and warmer temperatures in the low 60s to around 70 degrees may bring slightly elevated fire weather conditions to far northern WI, where vegetation has yet to green up, Sunday and Monday afternoons. While there are still slight differences in timing and intensity, ensemble models are in decent agreement that a near vertically stacked low pressure system will eject out of the Great Basin toward the norther Plains late Monday into Tuesday. An initial wave of warm air advection out in front of the low along with diffluent flow aloft may bring a round scatter showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday. Perhaps the best chance for strong to potential severe storms comes Tuesday afternoon and evening as much of the CWA may reside in the warm sector allowing for an increase in instability, however, the question remains if there will be a forcing mechanism present for thunderstorm initiation. Periods of rain and thunderstorms will remain possible through Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone brings several pieces of jet energy across the region. With several area rivers and streams already at or near bankfull the active pattern for next week may create some minor flooding concerns particularly in low laying and flood prone areas. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period, with patchy mid/high clouds expected into early Saturday, then thickening and lowering clouds in NC/C WI as showers arrive toward midday. Considered the possibility of patchy fog tonight, but the air mass has become well mixed this afternoon (warm temps and low dew points leading to large dew point depressions) and boundary layer winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 kts late tonight. Models are hinting at some low clouds coming off Lake Michigan (near MTW) Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention a ceiling at this time. Gusty west winds will drop off quickly late in the day, become light SE overnight, then moderate SE-S later Saturday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch/GK AVIATION.......Kieckbusch ####018005320#### FXUS64 KLUB 031748 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening along and east of the dryline as the left exit region of an 80 knot jet streak moves over West Texas (not particularly strong for jet level winds but is probably aiding in enhancing large scale lift). Low level moisture will continue to advect into the forecast area which will maintain surface dewpoints in the mid-60s in the Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle and mainly in the 50s for areas on the Caprock which again will prime the lower atmosphere for thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to form along the dryline in the afternoon and evening with forecast MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of about 40 knots in the moist sector supporting supercells capable of very large hail. Forecast tornado parameters (low level helicity) are not very impressive but a tornado cannot be ruled out in a well organized supercell. CAMs suggest initial discrete supercells which could produce very large hail and damaging winds. If storms continue to form, they may congeal into an MCS and begin to move east out of the forecast area. 3 AM satellite imagery shows patchy low level stratus across the southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains. This low level cloud cover is expected to continue to expand in coverage this morning with the low level moisture advection. Latest model guidance indicates these clouds will clear or become patchy by the afternoon allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 80s for these areas. However, if stratus hangs around through the afternoon, thunderstorms may struggle to initiate. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The greatest forecast challenge in the long term remains a potentially stronger and faster FROPA on Saturday morning which may ultimately shift the heaviest rainfall farther south and southeast of our domain by later in the day. Nevertheless, the overall pattern by Saturday afternoon and evening remains favorable for widespread measurable rain in the wake of a morning FROPA which should slow or stall as it reaches the I20 corridor by the afternoon. Moist E-NE sfc-850 mb flow following FROPA along with an uptick in southerly moisture advection at 700 mb preceding a shortwave trough later in the day will all help push PWATs to 0.5" to 0.75" above normal. Given the abundant post-frontal stratus and the front stalling to our south, NBM's high temps were nudged lower and closer to the more representative MOS. Despite this, soundings still depict ECAPE around 1000 J/kg on average across the southern half of the CWA which could spur at least a marginally severe hail threat, although the greater threat remains heavy rainfall given anomalously high PWATs and improving ascent from the afternoon into the evening. Heavy rain probabilities are almost always trickiest with cellular convective modes such as this event as opposed to MCSs, so we won't get too invested in messaging 1" or greater rainfall probabilities particularly given considerable spread still evident in the LREF's QPF. NBM's PoPs were scaled 10-20% lower beginning late Saturday night through the day on Sunday to account for stronger subsidence/height rises behind the upper trough. This drying should eventually secure some sunshine by Sunday, although lingering moist upslope flow will undoubtedly delay this process until later in the day and curb high temps. Deeper drying and windier conditions unfold on Monday as a vigorous upper low turns negatively tilted to our north and sweeps the dryline off the Caprock where some low PoPs remain. Uneventful weather then sets up from Tuesday and beyond south of a deamplifying upper trough, yet some re-amplification to this trough from Wed-Thu looks to send us a healthy dose of Canadian air with below-normal highs by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus decks have begun to break at LBB with VFR conditions returning, while PVW/CDS continue to linger in MVFR to IFR conditions due to low ceilings and will likely persist through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but are contingent on several variables. At this time, LBB has the highest chances for vicinity thunder this afternoon and early evening. However, amendments will be made as confidence increases on location and timing of storms this afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold front that will pass south through all three sites tomorrow morning/mid-morning. Low stratus, MVFR ceilings will return again as they fill in behind the front tomorrow morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...11 ####018004751#### FXUS63 KSGF 031748 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Patchy fog/drizzle has set in around the area this morning. Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should help to clear out the fog/drizzle and improve visibilities as it continues to push south. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after the cold front moves through. This is due to the mid-level southwesterly flow that will help us stay warm today. Winds turn to the north just for a few hours this morning before returning back to the southeast by late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves over us. Another weak shortwave moves through southern Missouri this afternoon and rain chances return. Right now, only have a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms with the best chances occurring over southeast Missouri. Storms are expected to be sub-severe today. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM. As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours. Tomorrow, we are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, and therefore, will be a better set up than today. Storms may become severe and could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Right now, have rain lingering through Saturday night into Sunday morning even after the front has passed through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Thursday. The entire area is in a general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday. Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring shower and thunderstorms to the area. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time. By Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC has consistently put our western counties in KS in an area of 15% chance for severe weather for Monday. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of severe storms. SPC has put eastern/southeastern Missouri in a 15% chance for severe weather for Tuesday. Lastly, CSU/CIPS guidance is showing the potential for severe weather all the way through Thursday of next week. Next week could be another busy week, stay tuned for further forecast updates. As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low overcast cloud cover will keep MVFR ceilings across the region through this evening and into tonight. An approaching storm system will bring the potential for showers and storms to the region around or after 12Z Saturday. Where storms occur, flight conditions will be impacted with MVFR to IFR ceilings and/or visibilities. Surface winds will be southeasterly in advance of the frontal boundary with winds shifting to westerly behind the front. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Hatch ####018005682#### FXUS64 KBMX 031749 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 903 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 The short-term forecast remains on-track, just made minor adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover. The initial shortwave is now over Northeast Georgia while we have some lingering showers across parts of the northern counties with heavier activity across the far northwest where a few lightning strikes were detected from time to time. This activity is likely occurring along an outflow boundary. A more-defined shortwave is over much of Arkansas and Northern Louisiana and will continue approaching the area through midday. Expect increasing clouds across the west and southwest from mid to late morning with chances for showers and storms developing and arriving from the west through the afternoon, expanding further eastward with time through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. 05 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A rather messy upper flow pattern the next few days with several waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track eastward across the northern portions of Central Alabama. Despite decent coverage of rain each day across the north, rainfall amounts will be rather modest with most areas receiving less than one-half inch of total rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across areas south of I-20, while cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly cooler north of I-20, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8 inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north. The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS. Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest counties. Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties. Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Clouds will continue to increase from the west and southwest through the afternoon. Showers with some storms will continue to develop across portions of the north and west portions of the area through mid afternoon, potentially affecting our northern terminals through late afternoon. More widespread showers and storms are moving east across Mississippi and will bring widespread chances for showers and storms late this afternoon and through the late evening hours. Lingering showers with a few storms will remain most persistent across the central and eastern counties overnight through late Saturday morning with lower chances to the south and west. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture increases today. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with higher values elsewhere. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the north and west and spread east through Saturday. RH values range from 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon, lowest values south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 81 61 84 / 70 60 30 60 Anniston 63 82 63 85 / 70 60 30 60 Birmingham 65 82 65 86 / 70 50 30 50 Tuscaloosa 65 86 65 86 / 70 40 20 50 Calera 65 85 65 85 / 70 40 20 50 Auburn 65 85 66 84 / 50 40 30 40 Montgomery 66 87 66 89 / 60 40 20 30 Troy 65 88 64 89 / 40 40 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...05