####018007016#### FXUS66 KPQR 031755 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1055 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Dry start to the morning before the next system brings heavier rain this afternoon into Saturday. No widespread hydrological concerns expected. Snow levels will rise above 7000 feet today, then fall back down to Cascade pass-level tomorrow. Expect another round of advisory-level snowfall above 3500 ft this weekend. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through early next week. Pattern change into drier and warmer weather begins Wednesday through late next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...High clouds associated with the next low pressure system are filtering through the Pacific Northwest and will gradually thicken this afternoon. Expect rain to begin at the coast around 12-1 PM and spread into the Willamette Valley by 2-5 PM as the system's warm front lifts over the area. Rain will continue tonight into Saturday morning as the trailing cold front pushes through. This system will have an abundant amount of moisture as IVT values max out around 300-400 kg/ms this evening. Models still show precipitable water values around 1 inch, which is about two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. There have been minimal changes the total QPF forecast with this system. Still expect around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late morning today to tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. No impactful winter weather is expected for the Cascade passes today as snow levels will rise above 6500 to 7000 feet. Despite the impressive QPF forecast amounts for early May, no hydro concerns are expected thanks to the quick-moving nature of this system. HEFS probabilistic guidance continues to show a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage for the majority of rivers. Two rivers with the highest chances of reaching action stage are Marys River at Philomath (5-10% chance) and Tualatin River near Dilley (15% chance). As the low pressure system progresses southward toward California tomorrow, cold air aloft will return and snow levels will fall back down to around 3500 to 4000 feet. We'll still continue to see precipitation this weekend, so another round of winter weather will be in store at pass-level. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued above 3500 feet for the North Oregon Cascades to the Lane County Cascades from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday morning. These locations are forecast to receive around 4 to 10 inches of snow, except up to 16 inches for the highest peaks above 5000 feet. Those traveling through the passes this weekend should prepare for winter weather conditions. Meanwhile, the lowlands will continue to see rain showers through the weekend. -Alviz .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...The early part of next week continues to look cool and showery as ensembles from WPC cluster analyses show upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday. Still not seeing any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region. Temperatures through Tuesday will continue to run below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s. On Wednesday, ensemble guidance begins to suggest drier and warmer conditions as an upper level ridge builds over the NE Pacific and extends into our area. By Thursday, WPC clusters suggest that the ridge strengthens further over the Pacific Northwest, leading to clearing skies and a quick rise in daytime temperatures. NBM suggests a 30-50% chance that afternoon highs on Thursday exceed 70 degrees for interior lowlands. This trend looks to continue going into next weekend. -Alviz/CB && .AVIATION...High clouds continue to filter into the area ahead of next frontal system approaching the coastline - VFR conditions hold through most of the afternoon at inland sites. The front properly moves ashore around 20z Fri, reaching the Willamette Valley around 22z Fri to 00z Sat. Model guidance indicates around a 60-70% chance of high end MVFR conditions at that time at all terminals. The southern coast (KONP) sees the most precipitation trained there, and around a 70% chance of IFR conditions is expect at that time. These probabilities continue through 18Z Sat. With deep moisture, expect mountains to become obscured. Winds remain fairly variable and light (<5 kt), but once the front nears, winds will take on a stronger southerly character. Winds at coastal terminals will begin to gust to around 20-25 kt from the south around 19-23z Fri, then gradually veer more southwesterly and weaken through the rest of the TAF period. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions under increasing high clouds continue going into the afternoon hours today. The front moving into the region arrives around 00z Sat with around a 50-60% chance of high end MVFR ceilings develop shortly afterwards between 03-06z Sat. Chances increase to around 80% after 06Z Sat. Winds generally east through about 00Z Sat then more south to southeasterly. Expect periods of rain and MVFR conditions to continue through at least 18z Sat. -Schuldt/mh && .MARINE... Weak high pressure over the waters early today gives way to a cold front associated with a low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. Winds along the coast will not be as high as the outer waters as they are not aligned directly to the coastline. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt range from 10-60 NM. The north Oregon and central Oregon inner waters may still see isolated gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Due to a lack of widespread increased winds, have decided not to issue a small craft advisory for the inner waters. However, there remains a slight probability in the case the low tracks a little further north than currently project. Winds ease this evening, but expect to see a period of steep seas (6 to 8 ft at 8 to 9 seconds) through Saturday morning, possibly longer, so have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM Sat. Will have to watch for steep seas reaching the inner waters on Saturday. /mh && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland ####018005775#### FXUS64 KSJT 031755 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1255 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening... Even with the showers and thunderstorms we've seen over the past few days, moisture is still plentiful across the area. Low clouds are already overspreading much of the area early this morning and should stay in place through the mid/late morning before mixing out. As the boundary layer warms through the day, we will see large scale destabilization across the area. With dew points ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, MLCAPE values by early afternoon will be on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg. Similar to the past few days, shear is still going to be on the more marginal side, especially in the low to mid levels around 30-35 kts. Storms are expected to initiate off of the dryline which should be in the vicinity of the Permian Basin by mid afternoon. Storms will likely go up quickly should remain discrete initially. Very large hail will be the main threat with the initial development along with a subsequent damaging wind threat. While the tornado threat is generally on the low side thanks to weak low level flow, we will have to watch boundary and storm scale interactions as these may be able to enhance local conditions and make tornadic development more favorable (similar to what we saw yesterday). Storms are expected to grow upscale with time, likely becoming a more linear feature where a transition to more of a wind threat is expected. Though, given the favorable thermodynamic profiles, large hail will still remain possible through the duration of the storms lifecycle. These storms will be efficient rainfall producers as noted by Pwat values over 1.25 for nearly the entire area. Though the storms should be moving fast enough to limit flash flood potential, many of our northern and eastern counties are already decently saturated thanks to rain events over the past week or 2 so it won't take much to potentially create some problems. High temperatures today will range from the lower 80s across the Big Country and Heartland, locations that will remain socked in cloud cover for longer, to the lower 90s in the Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. Clouds will rebuild across the area tonight, behind the storms, keeping low temperatures mild in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for next week. Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a little more sun before the storms develop. By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize. Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends up, we may need to consider something. Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area. Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is expected to hold off until the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 79 61 77 / 60 80 90 50 San Angelo 63 86 61 78 / 70 60 90 50 Junction 67 88 64 81 / 30 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 80 62 77 / 40 60 90 60 Sweetwater 63 79 61 75 / 50 80 90 40 Ozona 64 84 62 78 / 50 40 90 50 Brady 65 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...24 ####018007140#### FXUS62 KILM 031755 RRA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 155 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. && .UPDATE... Quiet, warm day currently underway with scattered diurnal cumulus and intermittent high clouds. Temps will reach upper 80s away from the coast this afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Still expecting fog development this morning, although confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours, especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM. Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While these values aren't far off climatological values for early May, the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings. Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea breeze, but the region will remain dry. Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday. As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front. Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing moisture depth, even in weak instability. Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the increased cloud cover. Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s. A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight with similar morning lows; mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight. Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday. Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Currently VFR with scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft and intermittent high clouds. Tonight's forecast gets a bit tricky. High confidence in visibility restrictions (along with low cigs) at KILM overnight through sunrise, with potential for LIFR conditions. CRE and MYR will likely see fog overnight as well, though perhaps not as thick or long lasting as the Cape Fear region. Confidence is lower further inland as there may be some mid/high clouds moving in late tonight, and might see more stratus vs fog around dawn. Will see improvements after day break, with thunderstorm chances increasing some towards end of TAF period along I-95 corridor. Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell. Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots. Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/21 ####018004734#### FXUS62 KFFC 031756 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 156 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting the CWA through the short term period of the forecast. 500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow, one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any, measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon, helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday, bringing greater coverage of storms than today. With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support. A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May. The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring increasing rain chances again by the end of the period. RW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conds expected thru the aftn. Isold TSRA psbl at northern TAF sites from 19-24Z. Winds will be SW/SSW at 5-8kts through 00Z both today and tomorrow, becoming light out of the SE/VRB at times overnight tonight. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MFVR vsbys psbl in heaviest pcpn from 10-16Z, then MVFR to low-VFR cigs and -SHRA to linger thru remainder of TAF pd. TSRA psbl once again Saturday aftn, with best window from 18-23Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence morning ceiling progression and precipitation timing. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 78 62 84 / 40 70 50 60 Atlanta 66 79 64 84 / 50 70 40 60 Blairsville 61 73 59 78 / 70 80 50 70 Cartersville 63 79 61 84 / 50 60 40 60 Columbus 67 86 66 88 / 40 40 30 40 Gainesville 64 76 64 82 / 40 70 50 60 Macon 66 82 64 86 / 30 60 40 50 Rome 64 79 62 85 / 60 60 40 60 Peachtree City 64 82 63 85 / 50 60 30 50 Vidalia 68 82 66 86 / 40 50 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...96