####018010275#### FXUS61 KAKQ 031815 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 215 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM EDT Friday... Late morning sfc analysis shows high pressure remains SE of the area, along and offshore the Carolina coast. Aloft, a ridge axis is located just E of the area, extending into southern Quebec. Well- advertised backdoor cold front has crossed into the FA, with easterly winds and cool/moist maritime air noted along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore. Already seeing a wide range in temps with 50s and 60s on the Eastern Shore and mid-upper 70s/around 80F further W. The backdoor front will continue its journey SW today, creating non- diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. Inland areas should be able to warm into the mid-upper 80s (possibly ~90) by this aftn, with falling temps as the front spreads further inland. Areas on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck will remain in the 50s and 60s. Clouds will also increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the Piedmont this afternoon ahead of the advancing front (soundings show 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE w/ moisture pooling along the front), but CAMs generally indicate isolated coverage. Have slightly expanded the 20% PoP eastward towards RIC. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday - Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday. Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95. The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast. Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday. - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week. By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Degraded flight conditions are expected through most of the 03/18z TAF period as a backdoor cold front pushes further inland. As of 18z, IFR CIGs (bases ~800 ft) have moved into ORF and PHF. MVFR CIGs are noted at SBY, with VFR at RIC. Expect these IFR CIGs to persist along the coast through the period. Elsewhere, expect SBY and ECG to drop to IFR CIGs over the next few hrs, with RIC holding off until this evening. CIGs may then drop further to LIFR for a time tonight (best chances at ORF and ECG). Additionally, there may be VSBY reductions below 3 SM due to BR or FG. This part of the forecast is more uncertain so have not gone lower than 3 SM in the TAFs at this time. In terms of precipitation, most stay dry this aftn (a very brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out at RIC), before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Areas of drizzle are also possible. Winds have turned to the E behind the front at all TAF sites and E winds 10 should avg ~10 kt overnight into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front. -Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night. Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog. Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond. Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...AM/SW SHORT TERM...AM/MRD LONG TERM...AM/MRD AVIATION...SW MARINE...LKB/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018007346#### FXUS61 KALY 031816 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 216 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region this morning will shift eastward to the New England coast during the afternoon. This high will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Just some thin high clouds over most of the region. 12Z area soundings show mixing potential supports current forecasted high temperatures across the region. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cove through this afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cooler onshore SE flow will keep temperatures cooler than that past few days. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge axis gradually shifts east of the area tonight, as a weak disturbance approaching from the west slightly flattens out the ridge. High/mid level clouds will increase thicken from west to east, with a few sprinkles possible west of the Hudson Valley. Dry low levels should preclude any measurable rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies lows will be somewhat mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend days in terms of mostly dry weather with near normal temperatures. The surface high is forecast to remain positioned off the New England coast, while ridging aloft is re-established across the Northeast. A slow-moving frontal system will continue to gradually inch eastward from the Great Lakes. The front may get close enough to provide enough forcing for scattered showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Highs looks to be close to normal ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to upper 60s in valleys. Better moisture(PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV) and forcing start to arrive Sat night, especially late in the overnight, as the upper ridge axis breaks down with a stronger short wave moving in from the west. Will mention likely PoPs west of the Hudson Valley and chance east. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to near 50. Southerly flow increases ahead of the front as it advances into western NY on Sunday. Moisture will continue to surge northward ahead of the boundary, with the aforementioned short wave trough aloft moving eastward across the region. This will result in showers likely across the entire area for much of the day. With the clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, it will be a cool/raw day with highs only in the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Rainfall amounts generally look to be around 0.50-1.00", with the max focused on the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. These rainfall amounts will not cause any hydro concerns. The surface front and short wave aloft move into New England Sun night, with showers tapering off from west to east mainly during the evening. At this time it appears the overnight hours should be mainly dry with high pressure building from the west and a developing W-NW flow ushering in drier air. Lows expected to be similar to recent nights with mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term begins at 12z Monday with the cold front departing off to our east. There could be a few lingering showers around during the morning, especially across western New England, but overall we should see a drying trend as we head through the day. Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper ridging amplifies to our west with upper troughing to our north in southeast Canada. This will lead to upper confluence near our region and allow a ridge of high pressure to build in from the northwest. With large-scale subsidence, Monday afternoon through Tuesday should be dry. With cold/dry advection and deep mixing behind the front, we bumped temperatures up a few degrees above NBM guidance. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from upper 60s in the high terrain to mid/upper 70s for the valleys. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the 40s to 50s. Tuesday night through Thursday night...A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing with it a chance for some showers. However, the exact timing of the warm front remains uncertain at this time. Beyond that, we get into a pattern with broad, positively tilted upper troughing over the center of the country and flat upper ridging to our east. This puts our region in an area of deep, persistent SW flow aloft. With an active jet stream to our west/northwest, there will be several disturbances aloft tracking through our area over the middle to end of next week. While it is too early to specifically time out any of these features, Wednesday through the end of next week looks to be unsettled, so will mention chance PoPs for the entirety of the second half of the long term period. Some thunder may be possible depending on the timing of these disturbances relative to peak daytime heating. With persistent southwest flow and warm advection, highs each day will be in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. The second half of the week also looks more humid compared to Monday and Tuesday. For days 8-14, we may remain in an unsettled pattern with the CPC expecting above normal precip and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through 06 UTC with light and variable winds. Southeasterly winds will develop after 06 UTC and some low stratus may redevelop but confidence is lower compared to previous nights. We only included TEMPO groups at PSF where confidence was a bit higher. Any early stratus burns off by 12-14 UTC, VFR conditions return with mid and higher level clouds spilling over the terminals ahead of our next approaching disturbance. Light and variable winds become southeasterly by or shortly after 06 UTC sustained around 5kts. South-southeasterly winds continue through the end of the TAF period becoming sustained around 5kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Speciale ####018003670#### FXUS62 KTBW 031819 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Broad upper ridging extends northeastward along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be short-lived as the ridge builds back in over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida by Monday and continues through most of next week. On the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern for today. There will be some minor north/south movements of the ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure and weak front moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (20-40 percent) through the period, with the highest chances on Saturday and Sunday during the afternoon and evening hours. Above average temperatures are expected to continue with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80's along the coast to low 90's over the interior through the first of next week. Overnight lows will dip only into the mid 60's to around 70. A further warm up is expected by the middle of next week with mid to upper 90's possible over the interior. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will not include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of the terminals at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and remains in control over the gulf waters through the period. Mostly rain free conditions are anticipated with winds remaining 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the weekend. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front will move north of the area during the weekend, but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather through the period. Slightly drier air will keep low rain chances over the area today. Minimum humidities could drop near critical levels, especially in central portions of the Peninsula, but low winds will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. Easterly winds prevail becoming onshore by the afternoon through before shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a weak front moves north of the area bringing increasing moisture over the weekend and along with it chances of rain, with the highest rain chances on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 90 73 89 / 0 20 20 30 FMY 70 90 70 90 / 10 40 20 40 GIF 67 91 69 90 / 0 30 20 40 SRQ 70 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 20 BKV 64 91 66 90 / 0 20 10 30 SPG 74 87 75 88 / 0 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard