####018003537#### FXUS63 KAPX 031822 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 222 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today. - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon. Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset. Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines. For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight. Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Aside from IFR/MVFR CIGs lingering for another hour or two, VFR conditions are anticipated across most northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies behind the passing cold front. The exception to this looks to be APN as BR/FG may settle in later tonight into Saturday morning. Otherwise, northwest winds around 5-10 kts with occasional gusts to 15 kts will go calm tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...DJC ####018008276#### FXUS62 KJAX 031822 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 222 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another day with a mix of sun and clouds is underway as the east coast seabreeze progresses further inland. The breeze is getting hung up a bit near the St. Johns River breezes and building some taller cumulus, though just not quite enough layer moisture for any showers or storms to come out of this as of now. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out between about I-75 and I-95 through the next few hours, though the main focus area will be in the vicinity of and west of I-75 and into southwestern GA counties this evening where the sea breeze collides with the Gulf breeze. There is also a surge of higher PWATs further west ahead of a shortwave impulse aloft, which should also aid in the formation of some showers and a few t'storms. Not expecting anything at severe criteria, as instability will not be significant and the flow aloft is generally weak. Most areas have risen into the mid to upper 80s, with maybe just a few degrees more to rise inland before the arrival of the sea breeze. Closer to the coast, likely have already topped out in the low 80s. The aforementioned shortwave pushes closer overnight tonight, which will be enough for some showers and isolated t'storms to persist overnight. Especially in areas inland to the west and north of I-10, away from strongest surface ridging and where there will be greater available moisture. With the lingering convection overnight and more cloud cover in the area, not expecting as much in the way of fog Saturday Morning as compared to this morning. Though some patchy areas cannot be ruled out, especially over northeast FL. Lows will be mild, in the 60s to low 70s by the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...Rather messy/complex forecast as mid level trough/surface frontal boundary over the SE US and any ongoing leftover convection across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley during the morning hours with abundant clouds will disrupt the usual diurnal sea breeze convective cycle. This will lead to unbalanced afternoon scattered to numerous showers and storms along both leftover boundaries over inland areas and weaker than normal inland moving sea breeze fronts from both the Gulf/Atlantic, which should still lead to decent afternoon/evening convective coverage, mainly over inland areas, but timing and strength of any convection will depend on how much insolation occurs through the daytime hours. Models have trended slightly downward with Max temps in the lower/middle 80s across SE GA and along the Atlantic Coast, while mid/upper 80s still expected over inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the most sun is expected through the day and will likely be the location for any of the isolated stronger storms with gusty winds 40-50mph, lightning and heavy downpours, but widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Saturday Night...Mid level trough aloft is expected to weaken with a more normal downward diurnal trend in convection after sunset, with more quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours under fair skies. Low temps expected in the mid/upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog is possible inland but will depend on amount/coverage of rainfall on Saturday and potential clearing skies during the overnight hours, so have not included in forecast/grids this far in advance. Sunday...Lingering moisture from decaying trough aloft and more normal diurnal sea breeze circulation should lead to scattered afternoon storms, which may be numerous where sea breeze activity meets between the I-75 and US 301 corridors over inland areas, along with continued potential for widely scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy downpours. Max temps expected to reach the widespread upper 80s with isolated near 90 degree readings over inland areas, while the Atlantic Coast tops out in the lower/middle 80s. Sunday Night...Weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region and expect an earlier end to most diurnal convection by sunset with partly/mostly clear skies developing overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Typical patchy fog possible over inland areas, but significant dense fog not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Monday...Weak mid level trough passage through the SE US region and associated lingering moisture should continue the early summer-like sea breeze convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours, with best chances across inland SE GA where deepest moisture remains. Max temps generally in the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas, with lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast and the threat for widely scattered strong storms will continue. Tuesday through Friday...Not much change to the ongoing forecast of hot and mainly dry weather still on track as mid level ridging builds into the Gulf of Mexico and surface ridge axis builds south of the local region and this will trap the East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches and build the daytime highs into the lower to middle 90s with near record highs possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Diurnal convection will be suppressed but isolated storms will still be possible on Tuesday, and again by the late Friday time frame as some long range models are pushing a frontal boundary into the local region by the following weekend. Dew points mixing down into the mid/upper 60s during the afternoon hours will keep the heat indices likely below any Heat Advisory levels, but peak Heat Indices into the 100-105 range will be possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR is currently prevailing at all sites. The east coast sea breeze will continue to progress inland through this evening, with a change in wind direction and speed for JAX/VQQ/GNV over the next few hours. Chances for any SHRA are very low (less than 10%) at area sites through this evening, with the best chance being at GNV. However, probability and confidence remains too low to include in the forecast. FG is expected to be limited Saturday Morning, though did include a tempo for reduced vis at VQQ. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Surface high pressure ridging will remain over area waters through the weekend, with a sea breeze expected to push inland each day. The associated high will slowly move further southeastward into early next week, strengthening by mid next week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains at low end of moderate level through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 84 64 87 / 30 60 30 60 SSI 70 79 69 81 / 10 20 20 40 JAX 66 85 67 86 / 0 30 20 40 SGJ 67 83 68 85 / 0 20 10 40 GNV 65 88 66 89 / 10 50 20 60 OCF 66 90 66 90 / 0 40 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018007863#### FXUS63 KDLH 031822 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will lead to continued on and off precipitation chances through the next 7-10 days, with most of the precipitation falling tonight into Saturday and then Monday night into Tuesday. - In between rounds of rainfall, dry conditions in combination with strong winds could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Monday. - Thunderstorms are possible (20-30 percent chance) late Monday through Tuesday night, with severe weather potential very low - perhaps a 5 percent chance at most for isolated marginally severe storms in northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active weather pattern continues through the first week of May, which is helping to reduce the number of dry and windy days that could lead to critical fire weather conditions. Today will be mainly sunny to start across the Northland with the exception of parts of Koochiching County where the closed low lifting north is still causing cloudy skies and the occasional light rain shower. Highs today in the 60s (perhaps a stray 70 in northwest Wisconsin) and drying out with relative humidity values as low as 25-30 percent. Windy with southwest winds 15-20 mph with winds gusting as high as 25-30 mph. Clouds return this afternoon from west to east. On the synoptic scale a fairly progressive pattern across North America to start the weekend as a closed low over northern Minnesota lifts northward with the parent longwave mid/upper level trough over the Canadian Prairie into the Dakotas gradually meanders eastward. This eastward progression is accelerated this evening as a fast- moving mid-level shortwave trough digs in across the central Rockies and then ejects northeastward towards Lake Superior tonight into Saturday. This impulse brings with it impressive broad-scale lift across the region tonight with strong warm air advection at low levels across northern Wisconsin and excellent positive vorticity advection over MN/WI, with a surface front emerging/sharpening up nearly in line with the MN/WI border Saturday morning. The best broad-scale lift is offset from the best area of low level moisture, and combined with the fast-moving nature of this impulse there is an atypically large spread in guidance for the precip amounts - generally amounts of around a tenth to quarter inch expected along and south/east of the Iron Range (highest from Brainerd/Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports and up the north shore), with the odds for a half inch or more low (20-30 percent, highest across eastern MN) and values over an inch unlikely (less than 5 percent chance). The exception will be north and west of the Iron Range (which has missed out of the highest precip amounts over the previous week) where little to no precipitation is expected due to weaker broad-scale lift. The weekend won't be a total washout, though - sunshine should start to peak out of the clouds in central Minnesota by the afternoon Saturday, and most locations across the Northland will be the sun break out before sunset Saturday evening. Sunday will be a top-ten weather day with sunny skies, highs in the 60s (50s for parts of the north shore) and weak winds as a broad area of high pressure builds in across the Upper Midwest. Warmer and breezy on Monday with highs hitting the 70 degree mark for much of the Northland (except near Lake Superior where east winds will keep temps in the 50s to low 60s). Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as relative humidity values fall to 25 to 35 percent and southeast winds gust as strong as 20-30 mph. Another round of precipitation arrives late Monday with precipitation chances every day for the rest of the week. While mid/upper level ridging builds in across the Midwest this weekend, a very large closed upper level low enters the western CONUS, digging into the Four Corners region and causing a resultant surface low to deepen over the Great Plains, with the surface low probably develop in the Central High Plains Monday, lifting north into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday. This surface low will be anomalously deep for this time of the year - a much more winter/early spring evolution than late spring - and then the mature low over the northern Great Plains just... hangs out for a few days. The closed low essentially gets stuck as the "parent" upper level longwave trough slowly moves eastward into the Great Plains through the rest of the work week, with the weakening surface low tracking east from the Dakotas into the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern evolution is complicated, and with the complex nature there is a lot of uncertainty in the details. However, in most scenarios there will be off and on precipitation chances through the week with temperatures near normal (highs in the upper 50s to 60s). Most of the precipitation next week will fall late Monday and through Tuesday, with elevated instability leading to a few embedded thunderstorms. There MAY be scenario in which a few storms are capable of small hail in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely. In total Mon night through Wednesday morning around a quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected, but locally higher amounts of an inch are possible. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions this afternoon will diminish to MVFR conditions this evening at most sites, becoming IFR for a period overnight for at least DLH, HIB, and BRD as rain showers, low ceilings, and fog move in from the southwest. Low ceilings stick around through mid morning, with gradually clearing at all sites. INL will miss out on most of the precip/low clouds and remain VFR through the TAF period, with perhaps some MVFR ceilings early Saturday morning through late morning. At HYR rain showers arrive later with not as low ceilings expected due to drier air at low around levels, but still a period of IFR conditions Saturday morning. Strong southwest winds gusting to around 30 knots today persist through the afternoon, becoming light tonight into Saturday with west winds around 5 knots. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Strong southwest winds today gradually weaken this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect through the day. Another round of rain tonight into Saturday with weak west winds 5-10 knots Saturday, increasing and becoming more southerly at 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure builds in. A change on Monday as northeast winds increase through the day as an area of low pressure deepens across the Dakotas, with steady winds around 15-20 knots developing Monday and persisting through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Gale-force gusts are possible (10 percent chance) on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread gale force winds are not anticipated. With a long period of steady northeast winds, waves will build to 3-6 feet Tuesday, possibly larger for the north shore. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJM AVIATION...JJM MARINE...JJM ####018004851#### FXUS64 KCRP 031822 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: - There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HREF mean surface based CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result in an environment favorable for organized deep convection. Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear will support supercells that will move east to southeast through the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Finally, the 00Z HREF guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3 inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5 inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash flooding this evening. The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: - Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week. A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day. That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday. Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated showers are in the Victoria Crossroads, and the chances are expected to remain low (chance <30%) that at VCT, CRP, and ALI. In the meantime, MVFR CIGs are expected through the evening, until the low clouds and fog move back into the region overnight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Rio Grande Valley to the north or along the Sierra Madre and move southeast into COT and LRD after 00z/SAT and last through about 03z/SAT before they die off or move out of the forecast area. The rest of the night will have MVFR to IFR CIGs and probably MVFR to VFR VSBYs as the moisture remains high overnight. Ceilings will rise late in the morning to MVFR, and possibly VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 87 75 87 / 20 0 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 86 / 30 0 10 30 Laredo 76 95 76 93 / 40 10 20 30 Alice 74 90 74 90 / 20 10 10 20 Rockport 75 85 75 84 / 20 0 10 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 93 / 40 20 30 40 Kingsville 74 88 74 89 / 20 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 85 / 20 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...JSL/86 ####018006732#### FXUS63 KIWX 031823 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 223 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. - There are chances for showers and thunderstorms at times between this afternoon and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 The main surface low pressure associated with an upper level low pressure shifts northeastward into south-central Canada and this pushes a cold front and associated weaker area of vorticity into the forecast area today. Fairly strong low lapse rates, surpassing 8 C/km are noted on the NAM12, but more like 7 C/km on the ECMWF, this afternoon out in front of this eastward moving cold front. Model discrepancy on placement of storm formation is likely as a result of the NAM having a surface boundary advect eastward from Lake Erie on east winds. The HRRR has a more subtle indication of this as well. Cloud cover is a major factor in storm formation this afternoon because the area is without substantial shear. So, storm formation will have a better chance with reduced cloud cover. The area yesterday had some shear to tap into and that likely helped sustain updrafts for that one severe cell to produce marginally severe winds and just sub-severe hail without sufficient mid level lapse rates. Well, today, we are without substantial shear and mid level lapse rates so agree with today's general thunder allotment from SPC. As a result, think gusty winds to 40 or perhaps 50 mph may be possible with storms and perhaps some heavy rain that could lead to ponding or flooding with potentially training storms. Models indicate the main temperature gradient associated with the cold front separates from the moisture gradient and shrinks westward, tonight. As such, could see some fog development, especially in areas where cloud cover scatters and allows for some radiative cooling. Areas west of I-69 would seem to be more conducive to this outcome. It is interesting to see the ECMWF keep its moisture farther to the north and west in an area south of US-24 Saturday morning. Am a little skeptical of its precip output with a lack of forcing around, but will retain slight chance PoPs there. A somewhat better chance for showers and storms occurs Saturday afternoon and evening as a mix of sun and clouds allows for a reinvigoration of instability across the area. The greatest chance for this appears to still be south of US-24 and perhaps an axis west of US-31, but it's much drier over there. For whatever it's worth, the ECMWF does not have any afternoon showers/storms form Saturday afternoon, which is different from the rest of the model suite. With the stalled out baroclinic boundary to our west, models form a weak low pressure on it and that arrives Saturday evening. There will likely be a resurgence of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along that boundary with the return of forcing. Instability looks to stay lower than 1000 J/kg and perhaps even lower than 500 J/kg which would restrict the thunder chance. Mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may be able to help sustain convective rain overnight into Sunday morning. Highs in the 70s are expected across the area on Saturday. The front moves eastward on Sunday and this likely restricts the thunder chance until Tuesday. Although, times of rain are still possible as weaker areas of vorticity travel along the front. As such will populate some of the time with slight and chance PoPs in the time periods where rain looks the most possible. Sunday and Monday afternoons are the most likely chance PoP periods. A slow lumbering upper low within the Western CONUS trough comes far enough east to affect the area Tuesday. There is some disagreement on medium range guidance if the stalled boundary can move northward as a warm front allowing the area to be in the warm sector. The low level jet is expected to move into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening allowing 30 to 45 kts of effective shear to be an ingredient for developed storms to tap into. With the placement of the front in question, the chance for thunder is also in question. Instability appears to be the limiting factor with 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE to tap into. 60F sfc dew points and 10C+ 850 dew points will be most possible south of US-24 or US-30, but the ECMWF actually has them over the whole forecast area. Boundary-parallel flow appears possible and various areas of upper jet support may support times of heavy rain from training/ backbuilding convective rain. Continued rain over this unsettled period is going to need to be watched as saturated soils could lead to standing water, especially in the more flood prone and urbanized areas where soil has been converted to less permeable concrete. Either way, both models have a break in precipitation Wednesday morning. The question then becomes, when does the front move back northward again to cause more precipitation. A better chance for this appears to be Wednesday night. This period also appears to have shear and MUCAPE to tap into allowing for the possibility of more showers and thunderstorms that could be severe and produce heavy rain. Chances for rain appear to be lower Thursday with instability being restricted to less than 500 J/kg. Shear is around though so if any thunderstorms are able to form in that meager environment, severe weather could be possible. Still a better chance for drier weather occurs Friday with little to no instability and shear. However, the upper low pressure center nearby may allow for a light shower still. Friday also sees a return to mid to upper 60s for highs, which is normal to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Weak cold front making steady progress through the CWA and will clear KFWA by 1pm. Extensive cloud cover this morning has retarded sig heating of otherwise moist prefrontal airmass of which will curtail additional development this aftn. Brief/transitory MVFR based stratocu with fropa otherwise VFR will prevail this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...T ####018005554#### FXUS63 KMPX 031822 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another round of rain on Saturday. - Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the 40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface. With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday. Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although some rain could start moving in later in the day across western Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is spread across the period with one period having the highest confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than Monday's 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR for all terminals to start while a cold front sits atop MN/WI. This front will become more active this evening through tonight as a disturbance aloft drifts southeast from southern Manitoba, helping spawn a swath of rain over the eastern Dakotas and western MN this afternoon. This swath will then slowly move east this evening through the overnight hours, bringing MVFR ceilings and visibilities to all terminals gradually from west to east. Chances for CB/TS are rather low, limited mainly to far southern MN (thus KMKT), so have opted to not include its mention in this set. Ceilings have the potential to drop to IFR but confidence not high enough to go that route. Rainfall looks to end around sunrise in western MN, by late morning in eastern MN and early afternoon in western WI. Winds will be breezy from the SW through this afternoon, then the progression of and convergence around the front will dictate winds through tonight before winds settle on northwesterly Saturday morning with speeds 10kts or less. KMSP...Main issue through this afternoon will be breezy winds from the 210-230 range, potentially causing crosswind concerns for the parallel runways. Once past that issue, come later this evening when winds become northerly, rain looks to move in around 08z, potentially as early as 06z, and continuing through daybreak. Chances fairly low for CB/TS at this point but will continue to evaluate for inclusion later. Rainfall amounts look to run 0.25"-0.50". Clearing then expected from late morning onward with NW winds. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there). && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...JPC HYDROLOGY...CCS