####018006217#### FXUS64 KSHV 031831 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 131 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The last of the remnant MCS that moved ESE out of Oklahoma and across Southern Arkansas is still in Northeast Louisiana but should exit the area completely within the next few hours. Convection is ongoing just south of the CWA in Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana along an outflow boundary. Latest radar loops have indicated some northward redevelopment/movement on the western flank, and this could move northward into East Texas south of Interstate 20, and possibly Western Louisiana, later this afternoon. PoPs were edited somewhat based on these trends. The thick cloud cover has also kept temperatures well in check across much of Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Thus, high temps were lowered across much of the area for today. CN && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Difficult forecast leads to a low confidence one in the short- term as shortwaves embedded in dirty southwest flow aloft and a myriad of convective outflow boundaries are resulting in havoc in not only the operational deterministic progs but in the HighRes CAMS as well. Best resort is to go with progs that have initialized well to current activity which rules out most of the deterministic progs and/or nearly half the CAMS. The setup as described above is continued southwest flow aloft as the longwave trough remains across southern Canada into the Intermountain West with strong ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard. This persistent ridging is making for a rather stagnant upper pattern across the Southern Plains. The development of a nocturnal, low level jet is helping to sustain convection across E OK currently with that complex forecast to continue moving south and east into our northern zones this morning, weakening as it does. Outflow associated with this disturbance will likely serve as a focus for renewed convection later today with plenty of diurnal instability to work with. The HRRR which was followed closely for this short-term forecast is picking up on an embedded disturbance moving out of Central Texas later today with convection becoming numerous mainly near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and N LA so have therefore oriented pops highest across this area through the daytime hours, limiting chance pops to our northwest third overnight in the proximity of yet another weak disturbance moving towards the I-30 Corridor overnight. Saturday is another difficult call as our northern zones will likely be dealing with remnant MCS convection with at least scattered convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor once again tied mostly to diurnal heating. The good news is that widespread severe convection does not appear favorable today through Saturday but damaging wind gusts an an isolated large hail producing thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given the relatively steep mid-level lapse rates in place not to mention the convective outflow potential. PWATS will remain highest across our western half as well and relatively slow moving convection will of course pose a flooding theat as well but again, this should not be widespread through the short-term. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 By Saturday Night, all eyes will be on a much stronger shortwave exiting the Tx Hill Country and moving into the Upper/Middle Red River Valley of N TX/S OK. Scattered convection entering our far northwest zones late Sat Night should become numerous across most areas during the day Sunday and once again, these could pose an isolated severe and/or flash flood threat during the day. The East Coast ridge axis looks like it may finally pull up anchor and head offshore to begin the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper trough that enters to Pacific Northwest on Saturday moves into the Intermountain West on Sunday and opens up into the Southern and Central Plains for Monday. Enough upper forcing should be present across or northern half for scattered convection on Monday before we lose the upper level support for Tue into Wed. Followed the NBM pop wise Wed thru Thu but WSW flow aloft appears to continue and this results in a low confidence forecast once again as the NBM is not spitting out much in the way of pops Wed thru Thu and we all know what this flow can bring. NBM is continuing it's warming trend next week in the form of near 90 to the lower 90s Wed into Thu and if the drying trend is correct, this would put afternoon heat indices well into the 90s and even approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Summer appears to be starting way to early. 13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, we began the day w/ a TS outflow sandwich from NtoS along I-20 w/ KMLU about to scatter in the wake. The N boundary won out holding over E TX, but may go quick gusting from the S now . We have a cluster of TS lifting toward KLFK with a cautious tempo there 18-21Z. Otherwise, may add VCTS to KTYR/KGGG/KSHV if the sea breeze joins in later today. We should see a quiet night with IFR/MVFR 06-15Z and better TS chances in the aftn hrs Sat & nocturnal again daybreak on Sun. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 68 85 69 / 50 20 50 30 MLU 78 65 85 67 / 70 20 30 30 DEQ 81 62 81 64 / 50 20 60 50 TXK 79 66 83 67 / 40 20 60 40 ELD 76 63 84 64 / 60 20 40 30 TYR 83 68 82 68 / 40 20 60 50 GGG 83 67 83 68 / 50 20 50 40 LFK 78 68 85 68 / 60 20 40 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...24 ####018008518#### FXUS61 KLWX 031831 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will sink south of the area tonight. The boundary will return north as a warm front Sunday into Monday before secondary cold front approaches and stalls near the area for the middle and latter portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains centered over the New England coast this afternoon while an upper-level ridge axis is slowly moving off to our east. An upper-level trough is building over the central CONUS and a backdoor cold front is currently located near the Potomac Highlands into central Virginia. The backdoor boundary will most likely stall out near the area through late this afternoon before eventually pushing off to our south and west tonight as high pressure strengthens along the New England Coast. As convergence strengthens along the backdoor boundary into this evening, this will combine with moisture advection (southerly flow aloft around periphery of the high) and instability, triggering some showers and thunderstorms over the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands into the Shenandoah Valley. This activity will likely advect eastward into the metro areas late this evening and overnight. A rumble of thunder is possible overnight as well due to limited elevated instability above the marine layer. Low clouds and noticeably cooler conditions are expected overnight as the onshore flow continues behind the backdoor cold front. Lows will be in the 50s for most areas, with upper 40s in portions of northern Maryland. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The backdoor boundary will remain to the south and west through Saturday night while high pressure remains centered near the New England Coast. An onshore flow will continue during this time while warm and moist air overruns the marine layer in response to an upper-level trough pushing into the Midwest. This will result in plenty of clouds along with periods of rainfall and unseasonably cool conditions. There may be some breaks in the rain, but for most of the time near and west of Interstate 95, there will be some rain around. Perhaps there will be some more breaks east of Interstate 95 where the overrunning moisture may not be quite as deep. The overrunning moisture will deepen Saturday night into Sunday morning as the boundary begins to push north as a warm front, and the low-level flow develops a fetch from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, more rain is expected. The warm front will move into the area Sunday while a weak upper-level trough axis passes through. More unsettled conditions are expected with showers and perhaps even a couple thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon will turn out a bit warmer and more humid as well, but temps still near and below climo. Highs will range from the 60s north of the boundary in northern MD into the metro areas/eastern WV/northern VA to the 70s south of the boundary. The upper-level trough axis will move off to the east Sunday night while the surface boundary remains nearby. While a few showers are possible, coverage of precipitation should wane behind the departing trough axis. There may be areas of dense fog overnight with plenty of low-level moisture and light winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The unsettled weather pattern is likely to continue across the region for virtually all of next week. Nearly zonal flow aloft favors numerous passing shortwaves that bring enhancements to the daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Even at night, isolated showers/storms are possible given the increased moisture and lingering elevated instability. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is likely to be just north of the area Monday, slide south to around I-70 Monday night, then be pushed back north of the area through mid week. However, any change in the position of the stalled front could result in higher or lower rain chances than currently forecast for some areas. A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, possibly bringing some heavier rainfall and stronger storms to the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday warm to the mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Very mild overnight lows in the 60s each night due to increased dew points and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through late this afternoon along with dry conditions. Low clouds will develop due to an onshore flow with MVFR conditions developing most likely between 2 and 5Z and IFR conditions developing overnight. Showers are likely to develop overnight, and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 5 and 9z due to elevated instability. IFR/subIFR conditions are expected most of the time Saturday through Saturday night along with periods of rain and drizzle. There may be a few breaks of MVFR conditions Saturday afternoon. More unsettled conditions are expected Sunday morning with IFR/subIFR cigs/vsbys. Cigs/vsbys should improve some Sunday afternoon, but areas of low clouds and dense fog may cause more subIFR conditions Sunday night. Showers are likely Sunday with perhaps a few showers. Precipitation coverage should wane Sunday night, but a few showers are possible. Unsettled weather looks to continue for the start of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely each afternoon, with more isolated activity during the overnight and mostly dry in the morning. A heavy shower/storm moving over a terminal could result in brief sub-VFR conditions. Outside of shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... A pressure surge behind a backdoor cold front will cause easterly winds to gust around 20 to 25 knots into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. The gradient will subside a bit overnight through Saturday, but an SCA remains in effect over the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River. It will be marginal though with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory continues Saturday night for the Bay as well as the middle and lower Tidal Potomac River due to onshore flow winds ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front will move into the area Sunday into Sunday night. More SCA conditions are possible during this time. West to southwest winds around 5-10 knots at the start of next week as the unsettled weather pattern continues. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely each afternoon. Any stronger storm could produce wind gusts to 35 knots and lightning strikes. A weak frontal boundary dips south into the northern Chesapeake Bay Monday night, then lifts north of the area Tuesday. Otherwise, winds are forecast to remain below SCA conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Onshore flow will persist through early next week. This will raise water levels and keep them elevated during this time, causing minor tidal flooding for many locations. Moderate tidal flooding is possible around Annapolis and St. Marys County with the high tide cycle late Saturday night, and again late Sunday night into Monday morning. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...BJL SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...BJL/KRR MARINE...BJL/KRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL ####018009101#### FXUS62 KRAH 031831 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Sub-tropical high pressure will extend across the South Atlantic states today, while a backdoor cold front will move through eastern VA and northeastern NC. The front will settle southwestward and into north-central NC tonight, where it will stall through Saturday night, then weaken and move northward into VA on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1145 AM Friday... A mid/upr-level ridge centered near the srn Middle Atlantic coast will remain so through tonight, while a mid-level trough and embedded, weak MCVs now over the ern OH and TN Valleys will be directed around the ridge and into the cntl Appalachians. At the surface, a 1019-1020 mb sub-tropical high will remain situated off the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front, now stretching from the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay nwwd to a 1014 mb frontal low over OH, will merge with a developing bay breeze and move swwd to the vicinity of the Roanoke River between 22Z-00Z. A separate, srn stream front extending from cntl TX enewd and across the lwr MS and TN Valleys, to a 1013 mb frontal low over Middle/wrn TN, then ewd across nrn GA and the Piedmont of the Carolinas, will move little through the period. With no airmass change from Thu and continued influence of ridging aloft, today will be persistently, unseasonably warm, with temperatures continuing at 10-15F above average - mid 80s to around 90. Showers and isolated storm will focus today along both fronts noted above, including into the NC nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont early this evening and also with diurnal heating along a differential heating zone evident in late morning visible satellite and surface observational data along the srn stream front from AGS to HKY. The latter activity, should it indeed develop, would then be steered in weak wswly steering flow and into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont late this afternoon-evening. Areas of persistence fog and low stratus will likely redevelop into the srn-cntl Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills tonight, while a separate area of post-frontal, very low stratus will develop behind the backdoor front across the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Temperatures tonight will remain unseasonably mild and mostly persistent in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will stall along the eastern seaboard through Sat night. A southern stream disturbance will move into the Southeast US on Sat, then lift newd through the area as a sheared out northern stream s/w moves through the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sat night. The sub-tropical ridge will shift offshore and breakdown Sun/Sun night as the disturbances move through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Another southern stream s/w will develop over the southern Plains on Sun, then move eastward into the lower/mid-MS Valley Sun night. At the surface, as high pressure sits over the New England coast, the backdoor cold front is expected to stall over nrn/nern NC through Sat and into Sat night then lift northward late Sat night/Sun. The high should move eastward over the Atlantic as a low moves through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Sun/Sun night. Precipitation/Convection: Still fairly high confidence/chances for showers and possible storms Sat and Sun. Best threat for storms will be across the Piedmont, mainly along and south of the surface boundary, where surface-based CAPE will be maximized. Bulk shear still appears weak, and PWATs are expected to range from 1.4 to 1.8 inches. Do not expect the entire day to be a wash-out by any means, and Sat could start dry for most, but there will be a chance for showers across all of central NC, with greatest coverage from Sat eve through Sun aft. Highest chances NW, lowest SE. Given the high PWATs and scattered, somewhat disorganized mode of convection, isolated locations could receive locally heavy rainfall, with any potential for minor flooding issues largely limited to urban areas. Temperatures: A bit tricky on Sat, as there is some bust potential north of the front. Widespread overcast skies should somewhat limit heating as well. For now expect highs to range from the mid 70s along the NC/VA border to mid 80s SE. Sat night temps should be continued mild, mainly in the low to mid 60s. On Sun, with the retreat of the front northward, areas across the north may be a few degrees higher than Sat, but given the expected showers/storms through the day, temps may otherwise be limited. Highs in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 250 AM Friday... ...Elevated Rain Chances Will Linger Through Monday... ...Heat Returns Middle Part of Next Week... Sunday and Sunday night: The stalled sfc front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. Subtle upper disturbances coupled with the development of weak to moderate buoyancy during the afternoon will act upon the elevated PWATS (150- 160% of normal)in place over the region to support afternoon showers and storms. Shear is generally less than 20 kts, so the threat for organized severe storms is near zero. The moist PWATs and associated mostly cloudy skies and rain chances should temper afternoon temps. Highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Under mostly cloudy skies, mild overnight temps in the 60s. Monday and Monday night: A compact shortwave trough over the Mid MS Valley will become increasingly sheared as it crosses the central and southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and through the Mid Atlantic States Monday night. PWATs are forecast to increase to ~200% of normal as the trough and associated DPVA moves through the area. As such, expect another healthy uptick in diurnal coverage and PoPs Monday afternoon and into the evening. Shear remains weak. Thus, the threat for severe storms remains low. Low-level thicknesses are on par or slightly higher than Sunday. Highs 80-85. Lows in the 60s. Tuesday through Thursday: Rain chances will lessen during this period, with weak disturbances moving atop the ridge providing the primary focus for scattered shower and storms, mainly across northern portion of the forecast area. The main weather headlines will be the return of the heat during the second half of the work week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to top out in the mid/upper 80s north lower 90s over interior and southern portions of the forecast area. Expect very warm nights as well, potentially record warm, with lows 65 to 70. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... Except for a chance of MVFR vsbys/cigs in the SE including FAY 08z- 12z this morning, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least this afternoon across all central NC terminals, but with gradually increasing high and mid clouds. Starting after 21z, an upper level disturbance along with daytime heating will prompt isolated to scattered showers and a few storms pushing into the west (INT/GSO), with these chances lasting through the overnight hours, however VFR conditions will still be dominant. However, starting after 04z tonight, a backdoor front dropping into far N and NE sections will bring a good chance for IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys into northern areas, along and behind the front. As the backdoor front settles southward well into central NC overnight, sub-VFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread south through most of the area 06z-12z Sat, with scattered showers. Looking beyond 12z Sat, as the front slowly lifts back north and washes out, conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Sat from SE to NW, with the Triad (INT/GSO) remaining sub-VFR well into the afternoon. But the chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will be high, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, Sat through Mon, particularly each afternoon and evening, with locally gusty winds in and near storms, and a chance for patchy early-morning fog areawide. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield ####018008623#### FXUS61 KPBZ 031832 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 232 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances increase this afternoon and evening and continue through the weekend. Cooler, but still above average, temperatures prevail Saturday and Sunday with warm and unsettled weather continuing into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms expected this evening, with decreasing coverage overnight. - Temperatures well above average tonight, with record warm minimum standards being approached. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Mid-level ridging will continue to very slowly work eastward tonight before stalling in the northeast CONUS. This will also result in an approaching surface boundary getting hung up in the vicinity of the PA/OH border by Saturday morning. Clouds are on the increase from west to east as warm and moist advection occurs from the southwest. Showers are currently firing in eastern Ohio, and with increasing CAPE/ongoing heating elsewhere, convective temperatures should be breached in more locations in the next few hours, leading to more widespread activity as a weak shortwave provides support. Temperatures have managed to reach the lower and middle 80s in some areas where cloud cover has been thinnest. The record high at Morgantown may still be attainable if clouds/rain hold off long enough. Surface-based CAPE should peak in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range this afternoon, highest to the south of Pittsburgh. The instability combined with precipitable water climbing into the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range will support local downpours, although rates will likely remain below an inch per hour for the most part according to HREF probabilities. Localized urban high water issues cannot be totally ruled out, and WPC continues a marginal excessive rainfall risk. However, larger-scale flooding issues remain unlikely. Also, the severe threat is correspondingly low given the lack of deep shear and decreasing levels of mid-level dryness. Shower/storm coverage will slowly wane through the night as instability is lost, but scattered activity is likely to continue. The clouds and high moisture/dewpoints will keep minimum temperatures well above normal, with some record warm low temperature standards possibly in jeopardy. See the Climate section below for details. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled pattern remains with rain chances continuing through Sunday. Thunder possible on Sunday. - Temperatures drop, but still remain above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Eastward progression of the 500mb ridge axis slows considerably over the northeast CONUS on Saturday, with the quasi-stationary surface boundary lingering near the PA/OH border. Shortwave energy riding up the Ohio River will spread rain over the entire forecast area during the day. Areas near and to the west of the stalled boundary will have the bulk of the modest instability during the afternoon, leading to better chances of thunderstorms and notable rainfall. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.25" of rain are highest in far western PA and eastern Ohio, as expected given the above. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures suppressed as compared to recent days. In fact, easterly flow into the ridges may keep daytime highs some 15-20 degrees cooler in that region as compared to today. The upper pattern shows better movement on Sunday, as increased troughing over the northern Great Lakes shunts the larger trough axis eastward, with the northeast CONUS ridge crossing into the Atlantic. Shower coverage should be reinforced by the approaching trough and a secondary frontal boundary. Instability of greater than 500 J/kg has 50% or greater probability across most of the forecast area according to the NBM, thus thunderstorms are a higher probability. Severe chances remain quite low as overall instability remains marginal and flow is relatively weak in the lower and mid levels. Temperatures will recover a bit in south/southwest flow, with most non-ridge areas reaching the 70s once again. Most-likely rainfall totals across the region roughly in the 1.0 to 1.25 inch range through Sunday, with isolated higher totals likely. Large-scale flooding concerns remain small given the relatively dry antecedent conditions, but slow storm motions could lead to isolated issues if any one location gets hit multiple times with thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances continue into early next week but more uncertainty lends lower confidence. - Temperatures favored to remain above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles have been consistent in showing a shortwave trough over the Middle Ohio Valley approaching, but weakening, on Monday as it interacts with flat ridging over our region. A south-to-north gradient in PoP values still seems appropriate for the Monday/Monday night period. Uncertainty still reigns after Monday. Most guidance depicts a ridge centered over the Great Lakes at 12Z Tuesday, along with a deep closed upper low in or near the Dakotas. The upper low appears likely to fill during the midweek period, and as it does so, shortwaves rotating around it appear to flatten out the ridge as it moves across the Upper Ohio Valley, finally eroding it almost completely in the northeast CONUS. Some strength and timing issues remain with the details of this process, which in turn could impact precipitation amounts and timing. Nevertheless, a warm front is likely to cross on Tuesday as the ridge progresses eastward. This will lead to the persistence of a warm and moist airmass, with precipitable water values at or above the 90th percentile in the climatology. Along with the previously mentioned shortwave activity, this will keep an active weather pattern in place for our region, with decent daily precipitation chances through Friday. Deep-layer shear will increase as well behind the departing ridge, so severe weather chances will need to be monitored as well. According to CSU machine-learning guidance and NBM CWASP probabilities, Wednesday and Thursday may be the days to watch. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will prevail this afternoon. High clouds will progressively thicken and high base cumulus fields may develop into the afternoon as heating continues. Guidance is consistent on developing shallow updrafts into the day today. Though there has been no observed lightning so far, the best heating has a chance of invigorating showers/storms into southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The current tempo groups highlight the period of best probability at the sites with the higher confidence in precipitation. Into tonight, convection is expected to subside and become lower coverage before resolving to some morning rain. Saturation from prior and current rain, with cooling temperatures may force a MVFR deck by daybreak, with probabilities of IFR greater than 50% at FKL and DUJ for now. As the morning continues on, saturated surface conditions near the surface trough will allow rain and shower chances to continue into the afternoon in southeast surface flow with modest improvement in daytime heating. .Outlook... Restriction potential continues through Sunday morning, with additional storm chances Sunday afternoon. Retractions return early next week as multiple disturbances cross the region. && .CLIMATE... Some record warm minimum temperatures may be approached on Saturday. (* denotes current forecast temperature exceeds value) Record Year Pittsburgh 65 1938 Wheeling 63 1931, 1939, 1941 Morgantown 63 2021 New Philadelphia 60* 2012 Zanesville 65 1902 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CL NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...CL LONG TERM...CL AVIATION...Milcarek CLIMATE...MLB/CL