####018006440#### FXUS64 KLZK 031851 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 151 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently, showers and thunderstorms have since weakened and/or pushed out of the CWA. Rain chances still prevail across portions of eastern and southeastern Arkansas. CAMs shows the possibility of additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms over portions of southern and northern Arkansas later this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be spotty and should dissipate shortly after sunset. The pattern is expected to remain somewhat unsettled through the short term as weak disturbances push through the state. The next best chance of rain and thunderstorms will return Saturday afternoon as a weak shortwave moves across the state bringing the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather appears to remain low at this time. Sunday brings a better chance of widespread rain across the state as another disturbance moves through. Rain is likely across western locations Sunday morning pushing from southwest to northeast across the state through Sunday evening. Once again, severe weather is expected to remain on the low end...however, gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out with these storms. Overall, QPF could be up to a half an inch across much of the state with some areas possibly seeing between one to two inches depending where the strongest storms pop-up. Temperatures are expected to be warmest on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to drop into the 70s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Monday and will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On Monday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday. Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all hazards of severe weather. Into Tuesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of which will include a 70 to 80 knot jet axis will be present over the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be a larger area that includes most of the CWA. Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather. THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY: A series of multiple Sits move over Arkansas during this period in tandem with a cold front that begins to move across the state on Thursday into Next Friday. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms over this three day period of unsettled weather. It remains to be determined if the ingredients will be in place to pose a threat for severe weather. Over the period in terms of temperatures, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over the same timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR to VFR conditions persist around the state currently. All terminals will gradually improve to VFR conditions through the afternoon hours today as CIGs lift and skies clear. Some light showers will possible this evening across northern terminals. Additional rounds of rain will be possible through early next week. FG will be possible tonight for central terminals where winds become calm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 63 83 64 78 / 30 50 40 90 Camden AR 63 84 64 78 / 30 50 30 70 Harrison AR 61 80 60 72 / 10 60 40 80 Hot Springs AR 64 82 64 75 / 30 50 40 80 Little Rock AR 66 85 67 79 / 30 40 40 80 Monticello AR 65 85 67 81 / 30 40 30 70 Mount Ida AR 63 81 63 75 / 30 50 50 90 Mountain Home AR 61 81 62 74 / 10 60 30 80 Newport AR 64 83 65 79 / 30 50 30 80 Pine Bluff AR 64 84 66 78 / 30 40 40 80 Russellville AR 63 83 64 76 / 20 50 30 80 Searcy AR 63 83 65 79 / 30 50 30 80 Stuttgart AR 66 83 67 78 / 40 50 30 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...73 ####018005262#### FXUS62 KILM 031852 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 252 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Persistent low level south-southeasterly flow will lead to another night of saturation near ground level. Best chance for fog, potentially dense, will be across the Cape Fear region and possibly parts of coastal northeast SC. Confidence in fog development decreases further inland as edge of mid/high level cloud deck will be across western parts of the CWA. May be more low stratus inland vs the expected fog closer to the coast. Regardless, any fog/stratus will clear after sunrise. Temps will be only slightly lower on Saturday, with highs in the low 80s. Main forecast problem in the near term is rain chances beginning midday Saturday and continuing through the day. There is going to be a rather sharp moisture gradient in the vicinity of I-95 during the day Saturday, with 1.6" PWAT to the west and near an inch at the coast. This is mainly due to rather dry mid levels around offshore ridge, with 20% RH at 700mb at the coast tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is scattered storms (40-50% chance) possible across western parts of the CWA beginning midday, with upper level impulses moving across from the SW around ridge offshore and trough to the NNW. How far inland that intrusion of mid level dry air gets will determine edge of best rain chances. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Pulses of shortwave energy overhead paired with localized lower pressure leads to shower/storm chances through the short term period. Sat night the coast could remain dry before moisture starts to recover late. The axis of better moisture will push into the area along with the shortwave Sun with continued chances for convection, particularly during the afternoon and along the sea breeze. The shortwave will move offshore Sun night with activity expected to wind down overnight. Another shortwave approaches Mon with greater precip chances with the addition of instability. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain chances continue through Tues where one last push of energy moves through aloft before ridging builds in for midweek with quiet weather. Under this ridge, highs will increase into the 90s with humid conditions. No heat advisory concerns with the current forecast. High temp records for Wilmington NC and Florence SC are a couple degrees above what is in the forecast for Wed and Thurs, so this heat will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances return late Thurs through the end of the period with an approaching frontal system. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Currently VFR with scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft and intermittent high clouds. Tonight's forecast gets a bit tricky. High confidence in visibility restrictions (along with low cigs) at KILM overnight through sunrise, with potential for LIFR conditions. CRE and MYR will likely see fog overnight as well, though perhaps not as thick or long lasting as the Cape Fear region. Confidence is lower further inland as there may be some mid/high clouds moving in late tonight, and might see more stratus vs fog around dawn. Will see improvements after day break, with thunderstorm chances increasing some towards end of TAF period along I-95 corridor. Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday courtesy of offshore high pressure. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range tonight and tomorrow, combination of 1-2 ft SE wind wave and 1 ft E swell. South-southeast winds persist, predominantly less than 10 kts outside of localized sea breeze enhancement Saturday afternoon. May see some patchy fog close to the Cape Fear coastline early Saturday morning, but confidence is low on how low visibilities may get and how far offshore any fog may impact. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Flow around the Bermuda high will lead to SE to SW flow through the period. Sub-SCA conditions with wind speeds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-4 ft Wed with an increasing southerly wind wave and some long period swells from the E/NE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...VAO MARINE...VAO/LEW ####018006000#### FXUS62 KGSP 031852 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 252 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure moves off the Carolina coast as a front approaches from the west then stalls over our region for the weekend. This front will result in periodic thunderstorms and showers starting today and lingering through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Friday: Upper ridge axis slowly moves east as an upper trough and a series of short waves move into the area. Surface high pressure dissipates as a weak surface low and trough move in. Copious moisture and weak forcing will lead to steadily increasing convective chances. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing and will move northeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Atmos is weakly unstable with poor mid level lapse rates. Bulk shear is also weak. That said, there are steep low level lapse rates with DCAPE over 800 J/kg over the the I-77 corridor where heating has taken place. The overall chance of severe is low, but can't rule out a strong or severe storm. While brief, heavy rainfall is possible with any storm, the flood threat is also low. Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees above normal. Coverage and intensity should drop during the evening. However, CAM guidance shows an uptick in shower activity overnight in the continued moist and weakly forced atmos. Coverage then continues to pick up through the day Saturday as forcing becomes better. Instability and shear will remain on the weak side, while forecast profiles show an even more saturated atmosphere. This suggests and even less chance of strong to severe storms, with a slight uptick in heavy rain potential. That said, the overall flood risk remains low given the relatively dry antecedent conditions. Highs will be near normal due to clouds and precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Friday: The rest of the weekend looks active right into the first part of next week. A baggy upper trof overhead on Saturday night slowly lifts northeast with a short wave passage, and this bit of lingering forcing will be able to keep shower/thunderstorm activity on a slow wane into the early morning hours. Guidance suggests that it will never die off entirely, so the fcst retains some fairly high precip probs. That sets the stage for Sunday. Models show less forcing, but an uptick in the available buoyancy in the afternoon. That should make for a more thermodynamically-driven day, with better than climo coverage of showers and storms. Forecast soundings off the NAM show some pulse-severe wind damage potential with mid-level dry air and a shallow inverted-V, so it would not come as a surprise if it was a busier day than Saturday. A stronger short wave lifting northeast over the TN/OH Valley regions on Monday will continue to support diurnally-enhanced convection, so we continue with above climo precip probs. Temps look to be on the order of five degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 143 PM EDT Friday: The bulk of the medium range looks like a summer preview. After a baggy upper trof moves past Monday night, we should spend the remaining week underneath a low amplitude, relatively fast, WSW flow aloft. Within this flow, the model guidance shows a steady train of short waves moving through, mostly around peak heating each day, that will enhance our convective coverage each afternoon/evening. Overall, the air mass shows little change from one day to the next, as a wavy surface front will be strung out to our north in the WSW flow. Buoyancy will be modest and shear will be light, which suggests that chances for severe storms will be relatively low, but in such a pattern we eventually seem to manage to crank out a few pulse severe storms each day. Precip will be spotty and showery, which keeps the heavy rain threat at bay, but eventually there could be a few spots that start to see an increased risk of flash flooding, especially if a more coherent, stronger short wave comes along, such as what the GFS shows next Friday. Lots of uncertainty, though. Temps will remain in that 5-10 degree above normal range for most days, perhaps on the high side of that either Wednesday or Thursday, which one of those days might get a break in the wave train and thus reduced shower coverage and higher temps. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and isolated storms are developing across the area and moving NE this afternoon. Have added TEMPOs at the locations most likely to see activity. KCLT with just SHRA for now, while KAVL/KHKY has TSRA. A cell may affect the SC sites but will amend as needed. S to SW wind expected through the afternoon. Activity diminishes somewhat this evening but returns overnight. Have PROB30s in place for that. Cig and vsby restrictions develop overnight as well, so have MVFR to MVFR before 12Z and IFR after 12Z. Light and variable wind expected overnight with S to SE wind for all but KAND, where it will be ENE, Saturday. Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through early next week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RWH ####018006476#### FXUS61 KRNK 031852 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 252 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring increasing clouds and rain chances to our area beginning this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Temperatures will be lower this weekend than they have been, before switching back to warmer weather with daily showers and thunderstorms possible for the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms through this evening. 2. Cooler easterly flow will over much of the area tomorrow will keep temperatures below normal. 3. Widespread moderate showers tomorrow with some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Vertically stacked low pressure was moving through southern Ontario this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure was on its way off the eastern seaboard as a short wave trough makes its way towards the TN Valley. Warm air advection along with orographic lift and marginal instability was triggering scattered showers so far this afternoon, mainly over the southern Blue Ridge. An area of convection closer to a warm front turned backdoor front in draped over the Greenbrier Valley was more conducive to thunderstorms, but lightning had not developed as of this writing. Increasing moisture on southerly winds will keep scattered showers around as well as isolated thunderstorms through this evening. After dark, winds come around to the east over eastern and northern portions of the forecast area. This will stabilize the air mass in these areas and as ceilings and visibilities lower, the precipitation will take on more stratiform light rain/drizzle/fog qualities. This will keep thunder from being an issue throughout the day tomorrow where the wedge is strongest. QPF amounts also look relatively light through the tonight and into the early morning hours. After daybreak, additional frontogenetic forcing and positive vorticity advection will deliver widespread moderate rain with categorical to definite PoPs throughout the day and evening, with some locations getting around an inch by tomorrow night. There may be some breaks in the precipitation, but these are difficult to pinpoint within this messy set up. Tonight, lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s for most, with cooler temperatures for the mountains and as you move northeast through the forecast area. Easterly flow along with the precipitation and clouds will keep highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the area. Northern NC may see slightly warmer temperatures as it will be less under the influence of the wedge of cooler air. Confidence in the near term is moderate, but lower for showers and thunderstorm timing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will slowly warm as the new week begins. The easterly flow should shift around to the south during Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic throughout this forecast period. A cold front will try to move eastward north of the Appalachian Mountains on Monday, but the primary area of low pressure should stay well to the north in Canada. As a result, this cold front will be unsuccessful in changing the air mass and may only nudge the stalled frontal boundary slightly southward. Because of this prolonged period of unsettled weather, chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur each day. The highest chance may come during Monday afternoon when the cold front to the north provides extra dynamical lift in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures should slowly trend upward as the flow becomes more southerly to increase warm air advection despite the ongoing chances of rain and the considerable cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will head warmer by the middle of the week. A stalled frontal boundary should still linger across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of the week. Several weak waves of low pressure will continue to track eastward along this boundary to continue a daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, ridging aloft and a southwest flow at the surface should increase warm air advection to push temperatures higher by Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains sometime during late Thursday into Friday, which could spark a higher chance of convection. The models continue to struggle with depicting when this prolonged period of unsettled weather will come to an end beyond this point. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... VFR clouds are on the increase with scattered SHRA this afternoon. Expect some isolated TSRA at times this evening with ceilings transitioning to MVFR. More widespread -SHRA/-DZ/BR is likely overnight as a wedge of high pressure builds in from the NE. Ceilings and visibilities drop to LIFR/IFR generally after 04/08Z and stay there through 18Z Saturday and beyond. South southwesterly winds of 5-10 kts will become lighter and initially variable tonight. A backdoor cold front will introduce an easterly component to the wind after midnight. Extended Aviation Outlook... SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...PM/SH ####018004714#### FXUS62 KCHS 031853 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 253 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The sea breeze is making good progress inland this afternoon with cumulus slowly scouring out in its wake. The best chances for showers/tstms for the remainder of the afternoon/evening still looks to be centered across far interior Southeast Georgia, roughly in the Millen-Reidsville corridor, where the best 850 hPa theta-e pooling and mixed-layered instability will occur. The risk for showers/tstms will persist for much of the night across the interior where weak forcing associated with several impulses moving across the Deep South into the western Southeast U.S. will brush by to the northwest. Enough lingering subtropical ridging aloft will hold along the coastal areas to keep those areas dry overnight, but there are some signals that a slight increase in the southerly could produce isolated convection over the Charleston County coastal waters early Saturday morning. Some of this could make a run for central and upper Charleston County, but any such activity looks to remain fairly brief and transient. No mentionable pops will be included to cover this activity right now as probabilities for anything measurable occurring are still very low. 20-30% pops were held across the far interior for much of the night. Conditions do not look ideal for significant fog development overnight as mid/high-level clouds will be thickening with time. Some low stratus will likely develop well inland which could yield some patchy fog where localized stratus build-down occurs. Widespread dense fog does not appear likely this morning unlike the last two. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will be in place. High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 04/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: No major issues are expected. VFR conditions will prevail. There are signals that some shallow fog and/or status could impact KSAV early Saturday morning, but with increasing mid-level clouds expected, conditions do not look overly favorable for fog/stratus development at this time. This will be monitored carefully, however. Any risk for isolated/scattered shower/tstm impacts look to hold to the west for all terminals this afternoon into tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018004047#### FXUS64 KJAN 031853 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 153 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A short wave is moving into the area this morning along with showers/storms. These storms will continue to move across the area this morning through the afternoon hours along with the showers/storms. With marginal lapse rates/instability expect these storms to remain below severe limits, but a strong storm or two will be possible. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the area./15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal temperatures along with decent rain chances are expected through tonight. A rather weak surface ridge will continue to nose across our CWA from the east while the southern branch of the jet stream continues overhead resulting in southwest flow aloft. This will maintain our warm moist airmass with PWATs greater than an inch and a half along with mid to upper 60F dewpoints. Subtle disturbances within the southwest flow aloft will combine with our moist airmass and daytime heating to result in scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be in our west and across our north. Although there will be a distinct diurnal trend to the convection, rain chances will linger tonight especially in the north. /22/ This Weekend: Isolated to scattered rain and storm chances will continue throughout this weekend, expect them to be in the mid-range (30-50%). An upper-level low moving east/southeast will send a cold front towards our area, nearing early Saturday morning with it being just west in the high plains. Storms and showers in the high plains will be strong and linear along the front, losing strength as they move east downstream, mostly dissipating by the time they reach our area. Remnant storm activity has the possibility of redevelopment in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Next week: By next week our weather pattern evolves into the typical western trough to eastern ridge pattern as temperatures will be abnormally hot. Southwesterly flow and surface ridging will help a strong surface high build into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will be at risk of nearing record high temps for the month of May as they could be as high as the low to mid 90s range, this will be our first taste of summer-like temperatures. The next chance of rain will be the end of the workweek. Upper level troughing in the western plains will become negatively tilted and provide a source of multiple disturbances through late week. As a front pushes down into the region it is possible for some strong to severe storms to form along the front. This event is possible however confidence isn't very high at this time as there is a good degree of uncertainty this far out in the forecast. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this afternoon and this will continue through much of the day as showers/thunderstorms move across the area. The bulk of the storms will move east of the area this evening, but expect stratus/fog to develop overnight after 09-10Z with sites becoming IFR/LIFR. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 65 86 66 / 70 30 30 20 Meridian 85 64 88 65 / 60 30 40 10 Vicksburg 81 65 86 67 / 80 30 30 20 Hattiesburg 84 65 89 66 / 50 20 30 10 Natchez 80 65 85 66 / 60 20 20 10 Greenville 80 66 84 68 / 80 40 30 30 Greenwood 81 66 84 67 / 80 50 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15 ####018004374#### FXUS61 KBGM 031854 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 254 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will give way to a slow moving frontal boundary that will push through the area Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived early next week before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop. Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the low 60's on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update... Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 120 PM Update... A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Monday... Mainly VFR. Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MPK