####018005960#### FXUS64 KSJT 031906 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 206 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening... A very moist and unstable airmass persists across the area again this afternoon. A dryline is located across far West Texas, with a residual outflow boundary bisecting the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Strong to extreme instability exists across the area per latest SPC mesoanalysis, with MLCAPE's 3500-4500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (0-6 km shear around 25 kts) but sufficient for supercells and intense updrafts given the degree of instability. As of 2 PM, visible satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field across western portions of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. Latest HRRR develops convection across this area by 21Z (4pm local), with storms expanding in coverage and tracking east across the area during the evening hours. Very large to possibly giant hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. As storms progress eastward with time, the main hazard will transition to damaging winds, although large hail will still be a concern. In addition to the severe threat, precipitable water values near 1.5 inches will support torrential downpours, which may lead to some localized flooding. The airmass will remain very moist and unstable again for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Models still show fairly widespread thunderstorm development across West Central Texas by afternoon along the weak front, which should be situated across the Big Country. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage by late afternoon and early evening. There is yet another risk for severe storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced risk. A slight risk exists across the remainder of West Central Texas. Shear is expected to be stronger tomorrow, especially during the evening hours, which will support tornadoes, some possibly strong within the enhanced risk area. Otherwise, large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly through the evening hours, with damaging winds becoming the main threat overnight as storms push eastward with time. Heavy rainfall is again possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may result in some localized flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for next week. Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a little more sun before the storms develop. By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize. Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends up, we may need to consider something. Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area. Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is expected to hold off until the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 79 61 77 / 60 80 90 50 San Angelo 63 86 61 78 / 70 60 90 50 Junction 67 88 64 81 / 30 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 80 62 77 / 40 60 90 60 Sweetwater 63 79 61 75 / 50 80 90 40 Ozona 64 84 62 78 / 50 40 90 50 Brady 65 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...24 ####018007587#### FXUS61 KBTV 031907 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 307 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue across the region to start the weekend, with the exception of a few possible showers across northern New York on Saturday before widespread precipitation returns for Sunday. A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure and upper level ridging across the region haver made for a pleasant Friday afternoon, with dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. As we head into the evening, the upper level ridge axis will continue to shift eastward,although dry conditions will persist. There will be increasing high clouds across the region overnight associated with a frontal boundary to our west. Unlike the last few nights, increased clouds and winds will inhibit any fog development across the region. A light rain shower or two may be possible across northern New York early Saturday morning as the frontal boundary moves closer, but any measurable precipitation would be minimal. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the 40s to low 50s. Saturday will be another pleasant day as we remain under the influence of high pressure, with mostly dry weather. Temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 in some of the broad valley locations, with high clouds remaining overhead. Dry weather will continue through most of Saturday night, with the latest guidance continuing to trend on the drier side for Saturday night with a strong ridge axis in place. Another mild night is expected, with temperatures in the 40s to low 50s ahead of approaching widespread precipitation on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 PM EDT Friday...PWATs rise to around 1.5 standard deviations above normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to overspread the region. Upper level pattern shows a stout omega block shifting east of our area into Maine, increasing shower chances and coverage on Sunday. However, organized convection is not expected as the main jet energy associated with the shortwave trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes is diverted into Quebec. As a result, the main trough axis does not approach North Country until sometime next Tuesday. This will be discussed in the long term section of the forecast discussion. Indeed, forecast soundings show a lack of surface-based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated. PoPs do increase to the likely category with scattered to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the 0.1 to 0.3 inch range with locally higher amounts. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage. Sunday will be quite a bit cooler than Saturday, with highs only in the 50s with low 60s possible if there are breaks in the rain or clouds. In addition, a 40-50 kt 925mb southerly low level jet overspreads the region on Sunday. NAEFS situational awareness ensemble table shows the v vector wind rising to almost 2.5 standard deviations above normal, so it will be breezy if not blustery. A mitigating factor is that the waters of Lake Champlain is still quite cold with water temperatures still in the low to mid 40s, which is almost isothermal to the forecast 925mb temperatures in the +5 to +8C range. That could reduce the mixing potential in the boundary layer. So have mostly kept wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range across the Champlain Valley despite the southerly wind component being anomalously strong. Overall, no overall hazardous weather to speak of but Sunday does look to be a less than ideal day for outdoor activities. Heading into Sunday night, showers taper off and the boundary layer looks well mixed enough to preclude widespread fog development. Temperatures stay quite mild in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 303 PM EDT Friday...The overall weather pattern heading into the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5 height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5 height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist for a few stronger storms. Taking a first look at ensemble guidance probabilities, it does look like the better chance for organized convection is across our southwestern zones, with more garden variety thunderstorms towards Vermont and the Champlain Valley. This makes sense from a synoptic perspective as the aforementioned positively tilted omega block may not be that easy to dislodge. As a result, our region only gets a piece of weak shortwave energy that peels off from the base of the northern Great Plains upper low and deamplifies as it tracks towards southern Ontario/Quebec. In simple terms, our region gets a glancing blow in terms of dynamical forcing and as a result, the odds for any stronger convective storms greatly diminish. While we are still 4 days away, model trends are favoring an unsettled but benign pattern for North Country in the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and are expected for most of the forecast period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals, with increasing high clouds overnight. A stray shower cannot be ruled out across KMSS or KSLK as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, with some MVFR ceilings possible as well but there is a lot of uncertainty with any flight category reductions. Winds will be relatively light throughout the forecast period, generally less than 10 knots variable, becoming more southerly through the forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Kremer ####018006143#### FXUS62 KFFC 031908 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 At a glance: - Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend - Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday north of I-20 At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the western fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend ahead will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow aloft, the strongest of which looks to move through Saturday afternoon. Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and summer- like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better (but meager) forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain chances are likely to be more widespread and weakly organized, with fewer breaks in between individual waves. For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC's sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving to stationary, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding. Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees above average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across south central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 -- highs in the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north Georgia, though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to greater coverage of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20, expect another day with temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 80s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs across the majority of north and central Georgia each afternoon, with some activity lingering into the evening each day. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that it will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave, which will pass north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance slowly southward from the lower Midwest into the Tennessee River Valley. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast and increased deep- layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather on Thursday will need to be monitored as the forecast evolves. King && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conds expected thru the aftn. Isold TSRA psbl at northern TAF sites from 19-24Z. Winds will be SW/SSW at 5-8kts through 00Z both today and tomorrow, becoming light out of the SE/VRB at times overnight tonight. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MFVR vsbys psbl in heaviest pcpn from 10-16Z, then MVFR to low-VFR cigs and -SHRA to linger thru remainder of TAF pd. TSRA psbl once again Saturday aftn, with best window from 18-23Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence morning ceiling progression and precipitation timing. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 79 62 83 / 40 70 50 60 Atlanta 65 81 64 83 / 50 70 40 60 Blairsville 60 74 59 78 / 70 80 50 80 Cartersville 63 81 62 83 / 50 60 40 60 Columbus 66 87 65 88 / 40 40 30 50 Gainesville 64 78 64 81 / 40 70 50 70 Macon 66 83 64 85 / 30 60 40 60 Rome 64 82 62 85 / 60 60 40 70 Peachtree City 64 83 62 84 / 50 60 30 60 Vidalia 68 83 66 87 / 40 50 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...96