####018008749#### FXUS64 KFWD 031914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ A Flood Watch is now in effect for eastern Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. This watch will continue through Sunday morning as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected. The weather across North and Central Texas will remain fairly active as a warm and humid airmass remains established atop our region. As you step outdoors, the humid airmass remains evident with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early morning convection across southern Oklahoma sent an outflow boundary southward, meanwhile, ongoing storms across Central Texas continue to push northwestward. These outflow boundaries will likely be the focus for isolated convection across North Texas this afternoon. Given a lack of strong flow, any convection is likely to remain highly disorganized and fairly short-lived. Nonetheless, lighting and gusty winds will remain possible with any of the storms this afternoon. Across eastern Central Texas, another remnant boundary continues to be the focus for occasional bouts of heavy rain through the rest of this afternoon. Considering the antecedent conditions, a quick 1-2 inches of rain can lead to flash flooding. Storm chances should dissipate around or shortly after sunset as daytime heating comes to an end. This is when we'll turn our attention to the dryline across West Texas, where storms are once again expected. Although the dryline will likely be about 100 miles west of our region, storm motion this evening will be to the east with a few storms arriving to our western-most counties by 9-10pm. Given the storms will become increasingly displaced from the source of lift, expect storms to gradually dissipate trough the night. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers or storms approaching the I-35 corridor closer to midnight. Storms would be decaying, thus, the threat for severe storms would remain low. Tonight, expect cloudy and above normal temperatures will lows remaining in the mid to upper 60s areawide. Our next rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a cold front moves southward across our region. A shortwave trough will be migrating eastward, likely firing off thunderstorms along the leading edge of the front. At this time, the greatest rain chances will likely be beyond sunset tomorrow, however, a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out between noon and sunset. Any storms that do develop in the afternoon could contain small hail and gusty winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with southerly winds continuing. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ Update: An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, with potential for showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening. Of course, this will largely depend on a variety of factors - most notably the exact placement of the frontal boundary and any residual outflow boundaries from previous convective activity. There will exist a low-end potential for severe weather, which will need to be closely monitored over the next few days. The main concerns regarding this include large hail, damaging winds, and additional rounds of heavy rainfall which may lead to a reemergence of flooding issues across Central Texas. Thankfully there appears to be a brief period of relatively low rain chances as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico, which will help to limit most severe weather concerns through the week. Along with this, continual southerly flow will allow our afternoon highs to steadily creep into the mid 80s and low 90s across the area. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, lingering in the low 70s. For more specific details, please refer to the previous long term discussion down below and continue to check for updates. Reeves Previous Discussion: /Saturday Night and Beyond/ The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday. Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas. The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Low storm potential this afternoon. MVFR/IFR expected once again tonight through tomorrow. With the unsettled weather pattern continuing atop North and Central Texas, there will be a renewed chance of isolated storms within the D10 airspace this afternoon. Coverage will remain minimal, but some impacts to aviation traffic will be possible. Any storms that do develop will dissipate after sunset as south winds persist. The dryline, which will be across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, will once again fire off thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are expected to remain west of the D10 airspace, however, any westward traffic may see impacts due to the afternoon and evening convection. Ceilings will be deteriorating overnight, with MVFR around midnight, then IFR closer to 08Z. This trend is fairly similar across Waco where a similar airmass will be in place. The sub-VFR ceilings are expected to linger through tomorrow morning before improvements begin in the afternoon. Storm potential tomorrow afternoon remains too uncertain to mention in the TAF. There is higher confidence in tomorrow night's convection, however, that is beyond this forecast cycle. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 68 79 69 / 20 20 70 70 20 Waco 68 80 68 79 68 / 20 40 60 60 20 Paris 64 79 65 76 66 / 20 40 60 80 20 Denton 66 79 66 79 67 / 20 20 70 70 20 McKinney 66 79 67 78 68 / 20 20 70 70 20 Dallas 68 80 68 79 69 / 20 20 70 70 20 Terrell 66 80 67 79 68 / 20 30 60 70 20 Corsicana 68 82 69 81 70 / 20 40 50 70 20 Temple 68 81 68 80 69 / 20 40 50 60 20 Mineral Wells 66 80 66 79 67 / 30 30 80 70 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175. && $$ ####018003668#### FZPQ50 PGUM 031916 SRFGUM Surf Zone Forecast for the Mariana Islands National Weather Service Tiyan GU 516 AM ChST Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs for the next several days. The low risk along north facing reefs increases to moderate starting Sunday, as northerly swell enters the region. $$ GUZ001-MPZ001>003-041100- Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 516 AM ChST Sat May 4 2024 36 hour Surf Zone Forecast for the Marianas from 600 AM Saturday through 600 PM Sunday .TODAY AND TONIGHT (6 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY)... Rip current risk.....Moderate *. Surf Height North facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. East facing reefs............5 to 6 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 3 feet. West facing reefs............1 to 3 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 4 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Water temperature Satellite estimates..........82 to 84 Degrees. Maximum afternoon heat index...........Around 101. Coastal Winds............East at 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY (6 AM TO 6 PM)... Rip current risk.....Moderate *. Surf Height North facing reefs............3 to 5 feet. East facing reefs............5 to 7 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 2 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 4 to 5 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Secondary swell..............North at around 2 feet. Secondary period.............10 seconds. Maximum afternoon heat index...........Around 101. Coastal Winds............East at 10 to 15 mph. .OUTLOOK...The northerly swells will continue to push through the region, increasing surf along west, north and east facing reefs for several days. Tide information for the next 36 hours... At Apra Harbor, Guam... Low tide 1.1 feet at 10:50 AM Saturday High tide 2.2 feet at 4:15 PM Saturday Low tide 0.5 feet at 10:36 PM Saturday High tide 2.6 feet at 5:14 AM Sunday Low tide 0.7 feet at 11:38 AM Sunday High tide 2.3 feet at 5:35 PM Sunday At Rota Island... Low tide 1.1 feet at 10:44 AM Saturday High tide 2.0 feet at 4:12 PM Saturday Low tide 0.5 feet at 10:30 PM Saturday High tide 2.5 feet at 5:11 AM Sunday Low tide 0.7 feet at 11:32 AM Sunday High tide 2.2 feet at 5:32 PM Sunday At Tinian Island... Low tide 0.8 feet at 10:11 AM Saturday High tide 1.5 feet at 3:26 PM Saturday Low tide 0.3 feet at 9:57 PM Saturday High tide 1.8 feet at 4:31 AM Sunday Low tide 0.5 feet at 11:00 AM Sunday High tide 1.5 feet at 4:53 PM Sunday At Tanapag Harbor, Saipan... Low tide 0.8 feet at 10:56 AM Saturday High tide 1.8 feet at 4:33 PM Saturday Low tide 0.4 feet at 10:35 PM Saturday High tide 2.3 feet at 5:13 AM Sunday Low tide 0.4 feet at 11:36 AM Sunday High tide 1.9 feet at 5:50 PM Sunday * Low Risk of rip currents - Strong currents can still occur near jetties and reef channels. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. Moderate Risk of rip currents - Wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. High Risk of rip currents - Large waves will produce strong rip currents, especially along narrow reefs and beaches. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the beach rather than against the current. $$ ####018010245#### FXUS61 KBUF 031916 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 316 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the New England coast this evening, supporting mainly dry and warm conditions through late this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will approach from the west late this afternoon before stalling out and falling apart over far western NY. This will bring an uptick in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity to far western NY very late this afternoon into tonight, with mainly dry weather continuing from the Finger Lakes east. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers and dry time built in. A slow moving cold front will then pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will settle over the New England coast this evening, all the while the upper level ridge axis remains in place over eastern NY. This has and should continue to keep shower activity over Ontario Province just to our west through the afternoon. Warm this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s across the vast majority of the region with a few low 80s possible across far WNY and the traditional warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Local lake breeze circulations will be in place through late afternoon/early evening making areas along and near the lakeshores cooler, particularly the southcentral and southwestern Lake Ontario shoreline and well along and just inland of Lake Erie. With the aforementioned upper level ridge axis over eastern NY, southwesterly flow will advect in deeper moisture late this afternoon into this evening. A weakening occluded front will slowly approach from the west, then stall and wash out across far western NY through the first half of tonight. However, as what's left of this boundary interacts with the increasing moisture and instability associated with daytime, some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across far western NY late this afternoon into the evening. The best focus will lie along the lake breeze boundary inland from Lake Erie, south of the Buffalo Metro. Occluded boundary will stall over far western NY before falling apart during the overnight. This will lend to a decreasing threat for showers through the overnight, with areas east of the Finger Lakes possibly remaining dry through the night. It will be mild with lows mainly in the 50s. With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY. An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area. With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night. Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still. A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week. This being said...the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region. With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed. As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure settling over the New England coast by this evening will continue to support VFR flight conditions. Expect some thickening and lowering mid level cloud decks across western NY through late afternoon ahead of a weakening occluded front slowly approaching from the west. Despite the increasing cloud cover, VFR conditions will persist. The weakening cold front will slowly move toward the area late this afternoon, with some showers and a possible rumble of thunder across far western NY late this afternoon into the evening with VFR conditions remaining intact outside of any shower activity, where brief MVFR VSBY may be possible. Showers become likely across far western NY through the first half of tonight, with just a chance of showers from the Finger Lakes east. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across western NY. Shower chances then slowly decrease through the second half of tonight. Otherwise, flight conditions will slowly deteriorate with MVFR CIGS developing across the Southern Tier (KJHW) by late evening, then advancing northward across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) through the second half of the overnight, with mainly VFR conditions expected from the Genesee Valley eastward. Brief MVFR VSBY possible in showers. Just some scattered light showers expected for the first half of Saturday with MVFR CIGS continuing across the Southern Tier (KJHW). KBUF/KIAG should improve to low VFR by late morning/midday, with VFR flight conditions expected to continue from KROC east. Outlook... Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms. Monday...VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM ####018008116#### FXUS61 KPHI 031919 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 319 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 235 PM...It's a challenging near term forecast due to different competing forces. On the one hand, an expansive ridge of high pressure is building into eastern Canada with the southwestward periphery of this feature extending back into the mid Atlantic. And in fact guidance actually depicts this feature strengthening slightly over our area during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile though, this ridge has resulted in easterly flow that has brought in a low deck of some marine stratus into much of NJ, DE, and even extending at times into portions of eastern PA. Finally, there is a frontal system that's approaching from the west with some showers however it will take some time for these showers to get into the area over the weekend as it runs up against the ridge in place. The upshot of all this is that skies are variable across the area this afternoon with the marine stratus starting to mix out and retreat back to the east just within the past hour or two while at the same time some high cirrus has been moving in from the west. It's also a much cooler day compared to yesterday with temperatures as of 2 PM only in the 50s and 60s. As we go through the rest of this afternoon into the evening expect that we'll continue to see variable skies with low stratus continuing to be most persistent near the coast while western parts of the CWA over eastern PA continue to see some filtered sunshine through the high clouds. It will remain precip free though through the evening. Overnight, however, shortwave energy will ride over the top of the upper level ridge centered over the east and help to push showers from the west closer to the region. This could bring a few light showers into parts of Delmarva and eastern PA by daybreak. Otherwise, clouds thicken through the night with lows getting down mainly into the upper 40s to around 50. For Saturday, low pressure moves eastward towards the Great Lakes driven by an advancing upper level trough. As this occurs, showers well ahead of it will continuing to try making inroads into our area while running up against the stubborn surface high that will be slow to move out. The upshot is some scattered showers will likely make it in at times, especially over eastern PA and Delmarva and especially getting into the second half of the day (POPs here by late day generally 40 to 60 percent). Otherwise it will be a mostly cloudy and cool day with continuing easterly winds and highs only making it to the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday night will featured continued marine flow from the east as the approaching front from the west washes out. Thus, expect areas near the coast to be mostly dry and cool, with a better chance of showers inland due to the nearby stalled front. Lows mostly in the upper 40s. Next, stronger front approaches from the west Sunday, but its approach looks slower, so have slowed the progress of higher POPs into the area. Looks like best chance of widespread showers is late day and at night Sunday night. With the marine layer likely to hold fairly firm, chance of thunder looks minimal, and severe weather risk appears zero. Highs 50s north, 60s south, perhaps near 70 far southern DE and adjacent parts of MD. Rain showers move out on Monday morning, though again opted for slower timing given trend. Marine layer looks like it is at least somewhat disrupted as flow turns westerly and a warm front tries to lift north, allowing temps to potentially rise to the 70s for most and near 80 southern DE/adjacent MD. Guidance now wants to generate some convection in the afternoon, and given the warmer and more humid air mass, its not out of the question we have a few stronger cells, but at this point there doesn't appear to be a significant severe wx or flood risk. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues through the week ahead. The front that lifts north thru the area Monday doesn't get far, and looks to even slide back south a little Tuesday, though at this point still looks likely mostly 70s. Another approaching shortwave and proximity of the front could spark off a shower or t-storm, but right now looks like low coverage. Front lifts a little further north behind that shortwave Wednesday, allowing temps to rise a bit. With it remaining nearby and another front approaching from the north, the odds of some aft/eve convection increases a bit. Highs closer to 80. Guidance is trending towards the return of a marine layer behind said front for Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend in temps. A passing wave may produce some better shower coverage Thursday as well, so we have highest POPs in the long term on Thursday. Friday trend is a little drier but still a marine influence. It should be noted that with the wavering front nearby all week and several weak waves, its possible the details of the forecast are notably different from how they currently appear, so check back for updates frequently. Guidance is very mixed presently. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this afternoon...Mainly MVFR predominating at ACY, MIV, TTN, and PNE due to low stratus. Otherwise mainly VFR with a scattered deck around 2500 feet. East winds 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots possible. Moderate confidence. Tonight...The marine stratus should result in MVFR cigs or lower eventually predominating by the overnight period with conditions lowering through the evening around PHL but likely not until the overnight at RDG and ABE. IFR cigs likely overnight at MIV and ACY. East winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Saturday...Mainly MVFR in the morning with some improvement in the afternoon to VFR except at MIV and ACY where MVFR may continue. East winds around 10 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Restrictions expected with showers moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible. Best chance of showers is late Sunday/Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through this afternoon over our ocean zones as seas remain around 5 to 6 feet with winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. These conditions should diminish early this evening with seas diminishing to 10 to 15 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet. Little change is expected on Saturday. It will also be mainly cloudy over the waters through Saturday with some patchy fog possible at times. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/RCM NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MPS SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM