####018005709#### FXUS64 KSJT 031924 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening... A very moist and unstable airmass persists across the area again this afternoon. A dryline is located across far West Texas, with a residual outflow boundary bisecting the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Strong to extreme instability exists across the area per latest SPC mesoanalysis, with MLCAPE's 3500-4500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (0-6 km shear around 25 kts) but sufficient for supercells and intense updrafts given the degree of instability. As of 2 PM, visible satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field across western portions of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. Latest HRRR develops convection across this area by 21Z (4pm local), with storms expanding in coverage and tracking east across the area during the evening hours. Very large to possibly giant hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. As storms progress eastward with time, the main hazard will transition to damaging winds, although large hail will still be a concern. In addition to the severe threat, precipitable water values near 1.5 inches will support torrential downpours, which may lead to some localized flooding. The airmass will remain very moist and unstable again for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Models still show fairly widespread thunderstorm development across West Central Texas by afternoon along the weak front, which should be situated across the Big Country. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage by late afternoon and early evening. There is yet another risk for severe storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced risk. A slight risk exists across the remainder of West Central Texas. Shear is expected to be stronger tomorrow, especially during the evening hours, which will support tornadoes, some possibly strong within the enhanced risk area. Otherwise, large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly through the evening hours, with damaging winds becoming the main threat overnight as storms push eastward with time. Heavy rainfall is again possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may result in some localized flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 By early evening Saturday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of the area. The primary points of development will be along a weak front that will be stalled across the region and to our west along the dryline. Eventually, expect the storms to congeal into a slow moving mesoscale convective system (MCS) and slowly move south or southeast across the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns, although a tornado is also possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially given the expected slow movement of the storms. Some flooding will be possible, especially in low lying areas, low water crossings, and on roadways. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Sunday, the remnant cold front will remain in the area, so additional showers and thunderstorms are possible. Most of the activity should dissipate by mid to late evening. Drier and hotter conditions are expected for next week. Highs on Monday will approach 90, with highs Tuesday into the low to mid 90s. The hottest temperatures are forecast on Wednesday with highs approaching the upper 90s in our southern counties. A weak cold front will move into the region Thursday, ushering in slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the 80s across the northern half of the area to the low to mid 90s across the southern half of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is expected to hold off until the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 79 61 77 / 60 80 90 50 San Angelo 63 86 61 78 / 70 60 90 50 Junction 67 88 64 81 / 30 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 80 62 77 / 40 60 90 60 Sweetwater 63 79 61 75 / 50 80 90 40 Ozona 64 84 62 78 / 50 40 90 50 Brady 65 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...24