####018005083#### FXUS64 KBRO 031929 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 229 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The combination of moist, low-level air, daytime heating, and mid to upper level energy could still support some convection to the west over neighboring Mexico late this afternoon through evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially drift into Zapata, and possibly Starr and Jim Hogg counties later this afternoon and evening. SPC has placed the aforementioned areas in a marginal severe thunderstorm outlook area, with the remainder of the CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area. The main threats would be large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. Otherwise, increasing low level moisture and light winds tonight may support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas. With a weak cold front staying north of the area tomorrow, the CWA is not in a thunderstorm outlook area for day 2. Additionally, above normal temperatures (a few degrees above average) will continue through the short-term with highs generally ranging from the lower to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast, Saturday. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows mainly in the mid 70s. Southeast winds will remain moderate to breezy. Moderate seas will sustain a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main event for the long term forecast period continues to be the above normal temperatures and the potential for some Heat Advisories to be issued next week. With the continued surface flow of southerly winds bring in more warm air to the region temperatures are expected to continue to rise. With the wind possibly having a southwesterly component to it as well during the period, that would allow for some dry, but even warmer air to move into the region. With the expected cloud coverage looking rather sparse as well during the upcoming work week, the incoming solar radiation will allow for even more heating during the day. While borderline for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday seem more likely days that will require Heat Advisories issued due the combination of the hot temperatures and very humid environment. High temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits for most of the area, with areas along the coast in the lower 90s. With an almost consistent zonal flow pattern aloft and a lack of any real forcing in the atmosphere, the long term forecast period is expected to be rain free. With that, there is not much expected to be in the form of relief from the heat expect maybe a bit of a breezy. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TAF conditions are VFR at the sites as low clouds have scattered out. Still have ceilings above 3 kft, however. High pressure controls the Gulf, with lower pressure to the west, sustaining the seasonal moderate southeast winds across the region. A few storms could be possible upstream toward Laredo this evening, but the lower and even mid RGV, including the TAF sites, should avoid convection. A familiar pattern will occur this evening as ceilings lower to MVFR overnight through Saturday morning. Southeast winds will decrease to light overnight, strengthening to moderate and breezy on Saturday. Light, patchy fog could develop at the TAF sites overnight, but visibility limitations should be no worse than MVFR ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes higher seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may occur at times. Sunday through Next Friday..Generally light to moderate winds and moderate seas will be in play through next Friday. This will lead to extended periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution as winds increase with the tight pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast. While rougher seas are also possible around Monday, requiring a low-end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 89 76 89 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 91 75 91 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 93 77 92 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 93 76 93 / 20 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 77 82 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 86 75 88 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...54-BHM ####018009080#### FXUS63 KLMK 031930 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 330 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated shower and thunderstorm possible this afternoon. Slow moving storm motion and moderate to heavy rain expected with any storm. * Showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered on Saturday, though forecast confidence in exact timing and coverage remains low. * Increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and flooding next Tuesday through Thursday, though confidence in details is still low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ========== This Afternoon ========== The cold front is located just north of the Ohio River this afternoon, with our area within the warm sector of the system. Mostly cloudy sky cover has kept temps cooler than in previous days, with highs so far in the low 70s. However, the airmass is muggy enough to develop some marginal instability, with ACARS data from SDF showing over 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective temps are close to the mid 70s, so if we can reach another degree or two we could see isolated convection fire up along the front or in the warm sector. We are already seeing some showers redevelop down towards Bowling Green, as well as along the front closer to Huntingburg, IN. Probability of thunder for this afternoon peaks around 50%, so coverage will be mainly isolated, and not everyone will see a thunderstorm. For those that do see storm activity in the next few hours, moderate to heavy downpours will be expected thanks to the PWATs around 1.5 inches. Additionally, very weak flow and shear will promote unorganized and very slow storm motions in addition to the lightning threat this afternoon. ========== Tonight ========== Around sunset and into tonight, precip coverage will begin to diminish as our daytime heating is lost. The cold front appears to wash out tonight, leaving no real source of lift in place. However, those high PWATs will linger, so will need to keep at least a slight chance through the night. However, better chances for additional showers come in the morning hours. Temps will be mild tonight, with lows only reaching the low to mid 60s. With the muggy airmass in place, and saturated grounds from recent rains, there should be a good chance for low stratus and fog tomorrow morning. After sunrise, stratus and fog will burn off. ========== Saturday ========== Another weak mid-level impulse should lift northeast from the south into the region tomorrow morning. This will bring additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers in the morning, with the greatest chances to the east of I-65. The forecast for tomorrow afternoon remains complicated in regard to shower and storm activity without much of a trigger mechanism in place. As mentioned earlier, the cold front will have washed out, leaving behind a moist and unstable airmass across the region. There will likely be some weakening mid-level vorticity left over from the morning impulse from the south, but overall the greater forcing will be up towards the Great Lakes later in the day. It'll be another muggy day, with dewpoints possibly reaching the upper 60s, with 12z HREF favoring 75-80% chance for dewpoints over 65F. PWATs don't appear to be as high as today, but still between 1.25-1.4" possible. However, sfc temperatures will be much warmer with highs hitting the upper 70s and possibly even the low 80s in some locations. This should lead to more potential instability during the afternoon, with forecast soundings suggesting between 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE possible. Convection initiation tomorrow afternoon will probably be driven by differential heating boundaries or other mesoscale features present at the time. Due to this continued uncertainty, will continue with broad brush PoPs for the entire region. Severe thunderstorms are not expected due to another day of weak flow aloft. Storms that do form will be fairly slow movers, with storm motions generally less than 20 mph expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Synopsis...The medium-range forecast starts on Sunday by featuring an expansive mid-level ridge over the central and eastern US as mid- level shortwave energy lifts from Upper Midwest to Canada. Further west, a strong mid- to upper-level trough will move onshore from the Pacific eventually amplifying across the western two-thirds of the country by the middle of next week. The ensuing broad cyclonic circulation will allow the upper jet to stretch closer to the Ohio Valley while periodic shortwave energy rotate around the trough axis. As a result, there is a chance of organized, strong to severe storms for several days next week across the Lower Ohio Valley as the main trough meanders around the Plains. Model Evaluation/Confidence...Confidence in synoptic weather pattern has continue to increase as CMC/ECMWF/GFS deterministic models agree fairly well on the position and evolution of the main features (trough/ridge). On the other hand, confidence decreases in the timing and intensity of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the larger trough circulation impacting the ability to indicate the exact times of the severe weather risks. Nonetheless, the CSU and NCAR machine learning algorithms have been consistent at depicting, at least, low probabilities of severe weather for the Tuesday- Thursday timeframe. Sat Night - Sunday...A slight chance of showers and storms will continue Saturday night into sunrise on Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the area overnight. The second half of Sunday morning and early afternoon looks drier as the diffuse boundary stalls close to the Ohio River. Another low chance of showers and storms might be in place late Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead and along the frontal wave provided that cloud coverage diminishes and solar radiation destabilizes the BL to yield CI once convective temperatures are met. Given the weak steering flow, mesoscale boundary interactions could play an important role for convective initiation and maintenance. Sun Night - Monday...An increase in shower intensity and coverage can be expected Sunday night into Monday morning as a southern- stream shortwave trough moves from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. GFS forecast soundings show increasing moisture profile with overall decreasing instability and warming mid-level temperatures. Therefore, there could be a chance of brief moderate to heavy rainfall with low thunder probabilities. This vorticity wave will push the stalled frontal boundary further north, so the shower coverage should decrease towards the afternoon and evening given the lack of any substantial forcing mechanism. Tuesday - Friday...As mentioned above, chances of strong to severe storms will be on the rise during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe owing to the increasing shear associated to the incoming upper jet, the presence of moderately high instability values, and sufficient forcing provided by the periodic mid-level shortwave troughs. Although confidence in timing and details on type of severe risk are low at the moment, available medium-range CAM guidance (GFDL-SHIELD) hint at a multi-day overnight severe threat on Tue and Wed night with probabilities displaced further south for Thu night. A flooding risk cannot be ruled out either given the convective nature and duration of the weather events. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 116 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Low confidence forecast for this TAF package, with restricted flight categories expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Terminals are mainly MVFR this afternoon, though ceilings have been around the threshold between MVFR and IFR. The cold front will be bisecting our region this afternoon and evening, which will possibly fire off a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We included TS mention for BWG and SDF until this evening, and that's a low enough probability to continue to handle with VCTS/CB mentions. The cold front will stall and fade out overnight, leaving a moist air mass in place that will be favorable for fog and low stratus for tomorrow morning. Included IFR mention, some in TEMPO groups, for the 08-14z time frame tomorrow. Additional VCSH is possible tomorrow too, but confidence remains low on those chances at this time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...ALL AVIATION...CJP ####018006403#### FXUS65 KPIH 031930 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 130 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Main impacts in the short term will again be Freeze warnings and Frost advisories in effect once again as skies should clear overnight with below freezing or near freezing temperatures expected to be widespread in the Snake River Plain, Magic Valley and Arco desert. On Saturday flow aloft turns southerly ahead of the next upper level trof approaching Idaho and southerly winds at the surface will increase ahead of the approaching cold front. It will be very mild compared to recent days with highs in the 60s mountains and 70s low elevations. A wind advisory has been issued beginning at noon Saturday in the Southern Hills, Albion Mountains and Raft River Region as speeds are expected to reach 25 to 35 mph with gusts expected to reach 45 to 55 mph at times. Rain and very high elevation snow will spread rapidly east Saturday night with rain covering all of southeastern Idaho by Sunday morning. Snow levels start out very elevated in the 8500 to 9500 foot level and dropping snow levels is more a concern in the long term period. The central mountains will see precipitation amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range overnight Saturday. Lows Saturday night will be mild ranging from the 30s mountains to 40s valleys. GK .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Under the influence of an organized H5 low directly overhead for Sunday and Monday, widespread precipitation, strong winds, and colder temperatures will return to begin the extended period. Confidence continues to increase regarding this system moving onshore for Saturday around Oregon before shifting east over SRN Idaho and the NRN Great Basin for Sunday and Monday. The latest QPF/rainfall forecast has gone up slightly over this morning now showing more solid 0.50-1.25" across the region with locally lighter totals across portions of the NRN Magic Valley and Arco/Mud Lake Desert. Locally higher totals in the mountains will be in that 1-2" range. Given colder air associated with this system, a mix of rain and snow in the valleys and predominant snow in the mountains continues to remain favored. There also exists moderate to heavy snow potential in the backcountry above 7000-8000' where up to around 1-2' of snow will be possible. As we get colder air in place Sunday night into Monday as the H5 low works NE into Wyoming and Montana, this will be the best timeframe for widespread valley snow potential especially south and east of the Snake Plain as snow levels fall to valley floors. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES will likely be needed to capture this event in the mountains with only light accumulations expected at this time across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Taking a look at winds, strong winds out of the W/SW are favored to continue into Sunday and Monday aided by an enhanced PGF and 30-45 kt 700 mb winds aloft. This will support additional WIND ADVISORY potential across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley where wind gusts up to 40-60 mph will exist. With respect to temperatures, highs on Saturday in the 60s/70s will quickly fall heading into Sunday and Monday with a return to the 30s/40s/50s of which will continue through midweek under the continued influence of a broad H5 trough overhead. As this system ultimately exits to our east onto the NRN Great Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will remain seasonably cool with isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Starting Thursday, around 75% of ensemble cluster solutions show a return to a broad H% ridge over the PacNW and NRN Rockies which will begin to shift east heading into the weekend. This will support warmer and drier weather to round out the work week into the weekend with highs back in the 50s/60s/70s as soon as Friday. The latest NBM 50th percentile high temperatures also show the potential for mid to upper 70s across our lowest elevations by the weekend which could mark the warmest airmass we have seen so far this year. Stay tuned as we track the latest and plan ahead for wet and windy weather Sunday and Monday with lingering showers through midweek. MacKay && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday. Predominant VFR conditions have returned at all terminals late this morning as lingering low-level CIGS continue through this afternoon and evening behind an exiting shortwave trough into Wyoming. These clouds will support isolated showers today with brief rain/snow possible on station. Further to our west, a large low pressure system will begin to move onshore tonight into Saturday as conditions remain dry with increasing mid/upper level CIGS. As a warm front lifts north out of Utah for Saturday, look for increasing winds out of the south up to 15-25 kts with gusts to 20-35 kts. Widespread precipitation will progressively return west to east starting Saturday afternoon and continue through the overnight hours into Sunday. Both strong winds and precipitation will then continue into early next week as a colder airmass returns. MacKay && .HYDROLOGY... Moderate flooding remains ongoing at the Portneuf River at Pocatello with rising levels late this weekend into early next week with the latest river forecast reaching 10.8 inches very near major flood stage next Tuesday. Minor flooding continues for the Portneuf River at Topaz where the gauge remains above flood stage and will remain so for several days with only a slight rise expected late this weekend into early next week. Flood warnings also remain in effect for the Blackfoot River near Shelley at Wolverine Canyon with the river remaining at flood stage and also near Blackfoot where the river remains in flood stage. With the potential for significant precipitation this weekend rivers will need to be monitored closely. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for IDZ051-055. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for IDZ052>054. Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ056-057. && $$ ####018004903#### FXUS63 KAPX 031931 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 331 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and mild weather through Saturday. - Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night. - Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pattern Synopsis: Shortwave troughing will lift across Ontario today as the parent mid/upper-level low pivots toward Hudson Bay tonight. The associated surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario and over Hudson Bay by late tonight/early Saturday morning. A cold front extending southeast of the system center will keep pushing east of the area this afternoon and evening, leaving relatively high pressure in place through Saturday. Forecast Details: Quiet and mild weather through Saturday -- Remaining showers will end this afternoon as the aforementioned front continues to slide out of northern Michigan, leaving sunny skies in place for the remainder of the day. Clear/sunny skies will stay in place through Saturday morning, promoting efficient radiational cooling overnight to drop temperatures well into the 40s -- and even upper 30s across typical interior cold spots. Southerly flow will strengthen through the morning, bringing warm/moist air northward to help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 70s for areas of northern lower Michigan away from the lakeshores. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are anticipated across the eastern U.P. and those close to the lakes. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave troughing currently spanned across North America with embedded height disturbances keep weather mild and active at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period. Midlevel low pressure with attached troughing currently over the central CONUS/Canadian boarder and over the Alaskan Bay will be the main two sources of energy for the Great Lakes region this weekend and next week. The first trough over the central CONUS will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay and pushing a shortwave trough through the Great Lakes region by Saturday evening. A cold front will proceed to deliver convective driven showers with the chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Attention switches focus on Tuesday when the second trough makes it way to the Northern Rockies and stalls over the region for the remainder of next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night: A weak cold front will deliver a line of showers to the CWA Saturday night with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible. Weak convection tied to the line will have no severe threat associated with the system, but areas across northern Michigan can expect a soaking of rain as QPF amounts remain around a general tenth or two. Higher amounts of liquid remain possible as more convective showers could produce some higher totals but no overall impactful weather is expected. Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms: Sunday and Monday remain dry as midlevel shortwave ridging pushes quiet weather into the Great Lakes region. Low dew points do raise concern for potential fire weather conditions, especially this Monday, but weaker winds keep the conditions questionable ahead of aformentioned midlevel low pressure returning showers and storms this Tuesday. Current guidance is depicting favorable conditions of strong thunderstorms as dewpoints push themselves into the upper 50s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of cold front. To early to determine severity of this line, but will continue to monitor this feature with later model runs. Midlevel low pressure/troughing will stall over the northern plains the remainder of the forecast period, continuing lingering showers at times across the Great Lakes region for the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Aside from IFR/MVFR CIGs lingering for another hour or two, VFR conditions are anticipated across most northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies behind the passing cold front. The exception to this looks to be APN as BR/FG may settle in later tonight into Saturday morning. Otherwise, northwest winds around 5-10 kts with occasional gusts to 15 kts will go calm tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC ####018006133#### FXUS63 KDMX 031932 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms and showers arriving after midnight tonight near and east of Highway 71 - severe risk is small hail, gusty winds possible - Stormy weather returns later Monday into Monday night with severe weather possible, perhaps redeveloping later Tuesday - More clouds than sunshine, fleeting showers, and trending towards seasonal levels mid to late next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Morning fog was rather impressive from visible satellite this morning highlighting the numerous river valleys across portions of Iowa. This fog was able to fully dissipate between 9 and 10am. Now, upper level water vapor imagery shows a parent upper low that is spinning into the Manitoba province. Dropping through the Intermountain West into the northern/central Rockies around this parent upper low is the shortwave trough that will bring thunderstorms into Iowa late this evening and our forecast area after midnight. An area of instability up to around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected ahead of a cold front along with steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear for storm organization. Forecast soundings show storms will be elevated in nature and thus pose a risk of primarily small to around 1" hail with isolated gusty winds possible. Convective allowing models show a few healthy updraft helicity tracks entering western Iowa, but their strength quickly wanes as they move toward central Iowa. Further, even the more aggressive WRF-ARW and FV3 are showing wind gust potential topping out between 30 to 40 knots. Overall, the marginal risks by the Storm Prediction Center on day 1 into day 2 seems to handle this risk well. Rainfall amounts look to be highest over western into portions of central Iowa, mainly east of I-35 with 12z HREF localized probability matched mean values of half an inch with small areas of 1.25 to 2 inches possible. The water issues over our southeastern forecast area - namely Monroe and parts of Appanoose and Wayne counties including the Cedar Creek basin - may then be spared from a return of water problems. These storms will be over eastern Iowa around midday leaving behind breezy winds from the north-northwest, decreasing clouds, and highs in the 60s in most central Iowa cities. With a clear sky over much of central Iowa, decreasing winds, and the rainfall from Saturday morning, we are looking to be set up for another round of dense fog. However, drier air will be pulled into Iowa and brings into question whether this will negate the other favorable factors. After any fog dissipates Sunday morning, weak ridging will pass overhead and a southern stream wave continues to trend south of the state with the latest NBM PoPs staying south of Iowa. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough over the western CONUS will move eastward toward the region and take on a negative tilt as it lifts northeastward into our region Monday into Monday night. Low level kinematics will be favorable at 40 to 50 knot Monday night in the region with resulting deep layer shear looking healthy for organized convection. This wind field will draw moister air into the region with low 60 surface dewpoints making their way to near if not into at least southern Iowa later Monday. MUCAPE values will be over 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates rates will be steep around sunset Monday, but both are forecast to diminish into the evening to some degree. Forecast sounding continue to show an elevated warm layer that may keep storms elevated; however, given the strong kinematic fields in the 0-3km layer, cannot rule out a tornado risk with any line of storms if the orientation can become favorable to the low level shear vector. So, at a minimum, at least strong storms look favored, especially over the western half of the state Monday night, with severe weather possible. Like yesterday, SPC maintains probabilities largely southwest of our area on Monday and southeast of our area on Tuesday. Latest Colorado State's machine learning random forest outlook and CIPS Experimental Analog- Based Severe Probability Guidance continues to paint 5 to 15% probabilities of severe over more of central Iowa each day lending credence to the idea of some strong to if not severe storms in portions of our forecast area. The strong to severe storm risk may persist Tuesday afternoon given the SPC, CIPS, and CSU mentioned above, but if things speed up then this may all be pushed off to the east on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday has broad brushed PoPs in our current forecast as the shortwave trough that will bring our storms chances the first two days of next week will lift up and meander over the Montana and western Dakotas area. This will keep weak shortwaves passing over the state and thus keep varying degrees of clouds, fleeting showers, and temperatures trending closer to normal in the 60s by late next week. Severe weather Wednesday through Friday looks unlikely as the instability will be away from the state. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening at the terminals. Thereafter, an area of showers and thunderstorms will move into the state from Nebraska. Have introduced a few hour period of TSRA at DSM and VCTS at FOD where confidence is highest in thunder occurrence. Other sites have just maintained SHRA, or VCSH as the rain departs. Thunder as well as impacts to ceilings and visibility will need to be further assessed in updates. After the rain and storms depart, winds from the north-northwest will turn breezy. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Ansorge ####018004917#### FXUS63 KJKL 031932 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 332 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast through the next 7 days. - Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 An active pattern remains across the Bluegrass State through the short term. Large upper low/trough configuration remains over the far northern US and south-central Canada with an active jet stream from the Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, upper ridging remains persistent along the East Coast, and will begin to move offshore Saturday night as the aforementioned upper low begins to move northeast toward eastern Canada at that time. This leaves eastern Kentucky under the influence of a moist and active regime with periodic shortwave disturbances moving across the region through Saturday evening. Currently a disturbance is beginning to exit to the east this afternoon, but will be followed by another tonight into Saturday morning that will bring another round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Models suggest low-level instability is somewhat lacking but there is sufficient elevated instability to warrant a few claps of thunder from time to time, especially west of I-75. Fog formation overnight will be dependent on any lulls in precipitation as well as any potential partial clearing. Lows tonight will range from the mid-50s in the cooler sheltered valleys to lower 60s elsewhere. Another disturbance appears to be well-timed with any daytime heating to help produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Given high PoPs and cloud cover through the day temperatures will struggle to reach the current forecast highs of upper 70s. PoPs gradually lower through Saturday evening through the overnight as a trailing shortwave crosses the area with shortwave ridging building in from the southwest after midnight. Sky cover will likely trend downward but this would likely then promote fairly widespread fog formation late Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially in the river valleys. Expect forecast lows Saturday night similar to tonight's forecast, with mid 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A rather wet long term period should be in store. However, it looks overall rather short on details/specifics. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest, while low level flow will be from the south southwest off the gulf. This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow, it will not have much momentum and is not likely to make a clean passage during the period (possibly just beyond the current long term period). This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s most of the time. The main drivers for precip will be convection associated with diurnal heating cycles and mid/upper level waves. While the diurnal cycle is simple, weak upper level features are much more problematic. The most obvious and predictable feature at this point is a shortwave trough which all models have approaching on Monday. The highest POP (70% area wide) of the long term period coincides with this. The remainder of the 12 hour periods have POPs mainly in the 40-60% range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Periodic rain showers will continue through much of the period, though nailing down timing at any one TAF location is difficult. Models seem to be slower in bringing sufficient instability for VCTS mention into the region this afternoon, so pared back any mention to primarily KLOZ and KSME. Once the sun goes down, the storms should become more isolated with time with rain showers being the dominant precipitation mode. Any storm could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with brief periods of MVFR or IFR VSBYs. MVFR CIGs will also be possible at times today into this evening during peak shower/thunderstorm activity. If shower activity tapers sufficiently overnight will likely see at least some fog develop at some if not all terminals, even moreso if there is any partial clearing. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...CMC ####018008807#### FXUS62 KRAH 031932 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 329 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Sub-tropical high pressure will extend across the South Atlantic states today, while a backdoor cold front will move through eastern VA and northeastern NC. The front will settle southwestward and into north-central NC tonight, where it will stall through Saturday night, then weaken and move northward into VA on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1145 AM Friday... A mid/upr-level ridge centered near the srn Middle Atlantic coast will remain so through tonight, while a mid-level trough and embedded, weak MCVs now over the ern OH and TN Valleys will be directed around the ridge and into the cntl Appalachians. At the surface, a 1019-1020 mb sub-tropical high will remain situated off the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front, now stretching from the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay nwwd to a 1014 mb frontal low over OH, will merge with a developing bay breeze and move swwd to the vicinity of the Roanoke River between 22Z-00Z. A separate, srn stream front extending from cntl TX enewd and across the lwr MS and TN Valleys, to a 1013 mb frontal low over Middle/wrn TN, then ewd across nrn GA and the Piedmont of the Carolinas, will move little through the period. With no airmass change from Thu and continued influence of ridging aloft, today will be persistently, unseasonably warm, with temperatures continuing at 10-15F above average - mid 80s to around 90. Showers and isolated storm will focus today along both fronts noted above, including into the NC nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont early this evening and also with diurnal heating along a differential heating zone evident in late morning visible satellite and surface observational data along the srn stream front from AGS to HKY. The latter activity, should it indeed develop, would then be steered in weak wswly steering flow and into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont late this afternoon-evening. Areas of persistence fog and low stratus will likely redevelop into the srn-cntl Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills tonight, while a separate area of post-frontal, very low stratus will develop behind the backdoor front across the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Temperatures tonight will remain unseasonably mild and mostly persistent in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will stall along the eastern seaboard through Sat night. A southern stream disturbance will move into the Southeast US on Sat, then lift newd through the area as a sheared out northern stream s/w moves through the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sat night. The sub-tropical ridge will shift offshore and breakdown Sun/Sun night as the disturbances move through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Another southern stream s/w will develop over the southern Plains on Sun, then move eastward into the lower/mid-MS Valley Sun night. At the surface, as high pressure sits over the New England coast, the backdoor cold front is expected to stall over nrn/nern NC through Sat and into Sat night then lift northward late Sat night/Sun. The high should move eastward over the Atlantic as a low moves through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Sun/Sun night. Precipitation/Convection: Still fairly high confidence/chances for showers and possible storms Sat and Sun. Best threat for storms will be across the Piedmont, mainly along and south of the surface boundary, where surface-based CAPE will be maximized. Bulk shear still appears weak, and PWATs are expected to range from 1.4 to 1.8 inches. Do not expect the entire day to be a wash-out by any means, and Sat could start dry for most, but there will be a chance for showers across all of central NC, with greatest coverage from Sat eve through Sun aft. Highest chances NW, lowest SE. Given the high PWATs and scattered, somewhat disorganized mode of convection, isolated locations could receive locally heavy rainfall, with any potential for minor flooding issues largely limited to urban areas. Temperatures: A bit tricky on Sat, as there is some bust potential north of the front. Widespread overcast skies should somewhat limit heating as well. For now expect highs to range from the mid 70s along the NC/VA border to mid 80s SE. Sat night temps should be continued mild, mainly in the low to mid 60s. On Sun, with the retreat of the front northward, areas across the north may be a few degrees higher than Sat, but given the expected showers/storms through the day, temps may otherwise be limited. Highs in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 329 PM Friday... The extended forecast upper pattern will largely include mid-level ridging over the eastern US. A stronger short-wave will move over the area Monday into Tuesday increasing rain chances. After relatively zonal flow Tuesday, mid-level ridging will then re- amplify over central NC through the end of the extended. Another potentially stronger trough may approach late in the period. Monday/Tuesday: A potent mid-level short-wave and associated vorticity max is forecast to move across the southern Appalachians Monday afternoon. Mid-level height falls will maximize over us later Monday afternoon/early evening coinciding with peak heating/instability. At the sfc, a piedmont trough will develop Monday afternoon which, in combination with forcing aloft, should help to focus showers and storms across our area. Bulk layer shear will be much too weak to support severe storms, but given the presence of anomalous PWAT (150 to 200 % of normal) any storm that develops could produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. POPs should decrease late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as flow aloft turns a bit more nwly and the atmosphere stabilizes. In absence of upper forcing aloft, rain chances Tuesday afternoon will largely rely on diurnal shower/storm development which should remain mostly scattered. Temperatures Monday will peak in the mid to upper 80s, increasing into the upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday/Thursday: The mid-level ridge will re-establish itself Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures soar into the lower to mid 90s. The NBM is particularly stoked about 90 temps for highs these days with >80% of it's members reaching this threshold for much of this area. The LREF (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) is a little less enthused on Wednesday, but does suggest decently high probabilities on Thursday (generally 40 to 60 % across the area). Otherwise, anomalous moisture will remain in place Wednesday/Thursday which should promote a continuation of low-chance POPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Friday... Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will focus this afternoon-evening along a differential heating zone and surface trough over the Foothills and wrn Piedmont of NC (including at INT/GSO) and also along a backdoor cold front that will reach the Roanoke River vicinity (including near and just north of RWI) around sunset. Areas of very low overcast and fog will likely redevelop through sern NC, including to around FAY between 10-12Z, in a persistence regime of humid, sly flow there. Meanwhile, a separate area of post-frontal, low stratus in enely flow, will develop behind the backdoor front and reach RWI and all Piedmont sites around the same time (between 10-12Z). Ceilings in both regimes should then lift through MVFR through midday Sat, during which time showers/ storms are apt to redevelop with diurnal heating. The greatest concentration of that convection should be along the front, which will likely become quasi-stationary between I-85 and US-64 on Sat. Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to redevelop each night- morning through Monday, as are scattered to locally numerous showers/storms each afternoon-evening. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...MWS ####018006213#### FXUS64 KTSA 031933 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A relatively quiet evening is in store across the area after an active week of weather for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A couple isolated terrain induced thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon across parts of northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma as diurnal heating acts on the moist airmass in place. Any storms that do form could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat. Storms should weaken with the loss of solar heating later this evening and give way to a mild night over the region. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall. Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that. Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won't take much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and already high rivers and streams. The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low-level stratus continues to blanket portions of northeast OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. However, latest visible satellite trends show the clouds beginning to scatter and break apart. Anticipate cloud bases to further lift and VFR to prevail by 19-20z at all TAF sites, with low-moderate confidence on exact timing. A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon. However, removed the mention of SHRA/TSRA in TAFs through the afternoon, with the precipitation probabilities too low to include at this time. Low-level stratus will likely return late tonight/early Saturday morning, especially across the AR terminals. Another round of convection is expected to develop north of the area and move northwest-to-southeast across the region early Saturday morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering through much of the morning Saturday. Southeast winds will shift out of the north as a cold front moves into the area late in the TAF period. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 79 60 73 / 30 70 60 80 FSM 64 82 65 76 / 10 40 50 90 MLC 66 81 63 75 / 10 50 70 90 BVO 61 76 55 72 / 40 60 50 80 FYV 61 80 60 74 / 10 50 50 90 BYV 61 80 60 72 / 0 50 40 80 MKO 64 78 62 72 / 20 60 60 90 MIO 61 77 58 71 / 20 70 40 80 F10 63 78 61 72 / 20 70 70 90 HHW 64 78 65 75 / 10 30 60 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...67 ####018006926#### FXUS63 KMQT 031935 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 335 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -The UP remains under the preferred path for low pressure systems, with multiple notable features passing through the next week. -In between systems, dry conditions will be expected, though mostly low winds and preceding rainfall should broadly limit fire concerns. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Calmer weather is being seen this afternoon as the last of the cloud cover has lifted away from the far east. With sunny skies being overhead the rest of this afternoon and with subtle warm air advection continuing, highs today could get into the mid 60s to low 70s before this evening; some spots, including Watson, Marquette, and L'Anse, have gotten to 68F already. Otherwise, gusty WSW'rly winds across the western half continue the rest of this afternoon before dying down this evening as deep mixing takes place across our region. Moving into tonight, cloud cover looks to return to the west half late as another low pressure system from the Central Plains looks to lift towards the U.P.. As it does so, we could see a few sprinkles late tonight from time to time across the west. Therefore, while skies will be mostly clear for tonight, the western half's low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer due to the incoming cloud cover; temperatures are expected to get down to the mid 40s near Lake Superior, the low 40s over the western interior, and upper 30s in the interior east tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday morning, while troughing is based over far northern Ontario, a trailing shortwave trough will be passing through the Dakotas and will support a weak surface low. 12Z GEFS pressure centers suggest a 1005-1010mb surface low passing over central Lake Michigan late Saturday. Ahead of the low, rain chances spread across the western UP during the morning hours. This will keeps high temps cooler (around 60F) compared to the central and especially the east where highs approaching 70F are forecast. The cool front and associated rain chances spread across the central and eastern UP during the afternoon and evening, respectively. While this does line up with peak diurnal heating, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE only maxes out in the 100-250 J/kg range in the south and east, though simulated reflectivity does show some convective potential, so some slight thunder chances are left in the forecast for the evening hours, though impacts should be low. The convective nature of later showers biases the ensemble max rainfall, but the mean rainfall around a tenth of an inch (0.1 in) across the UP is a more reasonable forecast given meager instability and lack of training. The exception will be in the east, where the HREF shows over 50% probabilities of 6-hourly rain rates over 0.25 inches and 30-40% chances of total rainfall over a half inch. In the wake of the low, 500mb heights begin to rise Sunday, supporting a 1020mb high pressure settling over the UP through late Monday. This will give the UP as a whole its driest stretch of the last few weeks with high confidence of no precip through at least early Tuesday morning. The main forecast concern will be how dry the airmass gets for Sunday and Monday, as efficient mixing and radiative heating under clear skies will allow RHs to fall. Going with the 10th percentile of Td guidance Sunday and Monday results in RHs falling into the 30s, though with the recent precipitation and light winds directly under high pressure, fire weather concerns should be tempered. A bowling ball closed 500mb low will be passing through the Rockies Sunday into Monday, negatively tilting as it does. This will support strong lee cyclogenesis, with the 12Z GEFS showing a mid 970s-upper 980s mb low over the Northern Great Plains. While confidence is increasing that severe weather much further south will result from this low progressing eastward, ensemble spread is high in the track, timing, and strength of this low pressure Tuesday and beyond. Late Tuesday has the highest chances of rain, with the NBM showing 50-80% PoPs during that time, but whether the low quickly ejects out or stalls is still unknown, so lower PoPs remain through the remainder of the forecast. With the cold-core nature of the system, the chances of embedded thunderstorms this far north will rely on some diurnal influences, but the strength of said storms is quite uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions continue through most, if not the rest of the TAF period as weak ridging moves over us the rest of this afternoon. Starting late tonight, another low pressure currently over the Central Plains lifts northeastward towards the Upper Midwest and brings more rainfall to the west as soon as Saturday morning (although some sprinkles could be seen here and there tonight). This incoming rainfall could bring MVFR and possibly lower conditions back across KIWD by the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, expect the gusty WSW'rly winds to die down later today as the sun sets. While we could see some marginal LLWS over the TAF sites (namely KCMX), the chance is only around 20 to 30%. Therefore, LLWS was not put into the KCMX TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Wind flow is split over Lake Superior, with the west half seeing SW winds up to 25 knots and the east half seeing winds less than 20 knots out of the SSE. Gusts lakewide fall below 20 kt tonight. As a weak low pressure passes through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday, the eastern portions of Lake Superior could briefly see some NW wind gusts up to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure settles over the lake Sunday and Monday, winds will be below 20 kt until Monday afternoon, when a strong low pressure over the Northern Great Plains will cause gusty northeasterly winds to funnel towards Duluth Harbor over 20 kt. The track, timing, and intensity of the low becomes uncertain after Monday night, but gales could occur (~20%) if the low tracks directly over Lake Superior with a moderate strength. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ242>244-247. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...TAP MARINE...GS