####018010852#### FXUS63 KLBF 031944 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected Friday afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall the main concerns. - Another episode of severe weather appear increasingly likely for Monday, but confidence in impacts in the local area is low at this time. - Cooler temperatures are likely for Day 5 (Tuesday) and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Immediate concern focuses on the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across much of western Nebraska. As of 19z, convection was developing along a stationary boundary draped from the southern Panhandle into north central Nebraska or roughly just north of a SNY to just south of a VTN line. Ahead of this feature, strong southerly flow was driving low-level convergence in immediate proximity to the boundary. Moisture in the warm sector is marginal at best with dew points reading the upper 30s to low 40s as air temperatures read the upper 60s to lower 70s south of Highway 2. This will greatly limit instability with MLCAPE values only progged to approach 1000 j/kg for areas south of Highway 23. Further north, values will likely remain 750 j/kg or less with rapid decrease with northward extent. Even so, forcing should be fairly strong with the frontal boundary progressing through the area. At the same time, flow aloft remains fairly strong with h5 flow exceeding 40 knots. With southerly surface flow, this is producing moderate 0-6km BWD values of 40 to 50 knots. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles ahead of the main line of convection but with a lack of drier air aloft, max theta-e values are marginal only falling to around minus 10 degC. At the same time, DCAPE values are on the lower end as well with most locations reporting values of less than 750 j/kg. That said, flow off the surface immediately following the frontal boundary will respond accordingly as a strengthening cold pool drives this south quickly this evening. These elevated winds will likely be efficiently mixed to the surface by the convection. This will support at least a concern for isolated damaging wind gusts in the local area. While hail cannot be ruled out, believe this threat is fairly low given lack of greater instability aloft. As forcing translates east along the boundary, increasing moist advection will help increase coverage of thunderstorms on approach to southwest and eventually central Nebraska later this evening. Coverage should blossom as a result with a growing concern of locally heavy rain. While PWATs remain low, less than 0.75", rain rates exceeding 0.50"/hour with potential for training storms should lead to a smaller area of QPF likely exceeding 1.00" from southeastern Lincoln/Frontier Counties up through central Nebraska to include southern Custer County. These areas have recently seen fairly heavy rainfall events as departures from normal values exceed 150% and even approaching 300% for some of these locations. This has helped drive county based Flash Flood Guidance to around 1.5"/2.0" for the 1 hour/3 hour values respectively. Latest HREF guidance shows Probability Matched Mean values of 3 hour QPF exceeding 1.25" for many of the mentioned areas and even peaking around 2.0". This suggests some hydrology concerns so this will need monitored as the evening progresses. Believe incoming dry air behind the front and the main source of lift should clear the area by Midnight Friday night though lingering stratiform precipitation could last into the early morning hours Saturday. This later departure of clouds and precipitation should help keep overnight lows across our east on the milder side with its implications on any frost threat covered at the start of the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday and Sunday...Departing trough to the northeast will allow mid-level heights to rise as shortwave ridging builds in its wake. This will promote dry conditions for Saturday as surface high pressure settles through the area. Forecast lows for Saturday morning do not line up with latest guidance on vulnerable vegetation therefore thinking no frost headlines are needed at this time. Supporting this thought is steady northerly winds with potential for lingering low stratus across our eastern zones. Admittedly, the residual cloud cover behind a progressive cool front tends to be overstated in NWP guidance. Even with the more pessimistic guidance though we see steady enough flow in the low-levels to prevent full boundary layer decoupling with surface winds remaining in the 10 to 15 mph range through sunrise. Further west where the setup for radiational cooling will be more favorable, lows will again fall below the freezing mark. That said, the areas remain outside the latest guidance for susceptible vegetation therefore no Frost or Freeze headlines are expected. All that said, lows will range from the upper 20s west to upper 30s east. Daytime highs will climb into the low to middle 60s with light and variable winds generally 15 mph or less through the daytime. Ridge breakdown begins Sunday as the next shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies late in the day. With developing surface low to the west and departing high pressure to the east, a west to east pressure gradient will compress locally and help drive some increasing southerly winds late Saturday into early Sunday. This will promote increasing moisture advection into the area. This will also favor a fairly stubborn low stratus deck across our western zones that may struggle to clear out until later in the day. As a result, cool temperatures will remain stubborn with afternoon highs remaining in the low to middle 60s. Winds will be on the stronger side for areas west of Highway 61 where gusts may climb into the 35 to 45 mph range with 25 to 35 generally expected elsewhere. Can't rule out a few light rain showers west of Highway 83 in the area of greatest moisture advection but given the general lack of convergence and limited WAA, believe this potential is fairly low with minimal if any impacts expected. Monday...A well advertised storm system will traverse the Plains, bringing with it the potential for a fairly robust severe weather episode across the region. Low-level southerly flow will persist early into the day helping increase surface moisture as a dryline tightens from western South Dakota down through western Texas. Aloft, the aforementioned shortwave disturbance will begin to take a negative tilt as it ejects onto the Plains early in the day. A concentrated area of significant height falls in concert with strengthening upper-level divergence will help foster the development of an elongated area of low pressure stretching from southern Colorado up through eastern Montana. Within the plume of richer low-level moisture, the combination of mild afternoon highs and steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to increasing instability within a strongly sheared environment. For now, greatest confidence in severe weather remains east and southeast of the local area where all hazards will be possible. Closer to the local area, expecting the greatest threat to favor large hail and damaging wind gusts. That said, the progressive cold front overtaking the dryline will encounter modest instability in our eastern zones so the prospect for severe weather affecting the local area cannot be ruled out. The latest SPC Day 5 severe weather outlook highlights areas east of Highway 83 in the 15% probability, or the equivalent of a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). For now, have no qualms with this but impacts from morning rain and thunderstorms within the strong WAA within the warm sector and how this affects the afternoon environment will need to be closely monitored. Behind the boundary within the drier airmass invading the area, strong CAA will support windy conditions with gusts nearing the 35 to 45 mph range out of the west. Temperatures will likely falter as a result but this looks to be late enough in the day that afternoon highs will still reasonably reach the upper 50s to lower upper 60s across the area. Tuesday and beyond...mid-level heights will be quick to fill in early Tuesday as a cutoff low at h5 takes shape across the northern High Plains. This feature will likely remain fairly stagnant through the middle of the upcoming week with a slight cooling trend in temperatures expected for the later half of the forecast period. Latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance hints at a continuation of strong winds from Monday into Tuesday. Another cool front will traverse the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing about a more noteable drop in temperatures. Some low-end PoPs will also dot the forecast, favoring areas north of Interstate 80. For now, confidence is greatest in precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening. Higher percentile values from the NBM suggest the potential for wetting rains but variances in deterministic and other ensemble guidance limits confidence in this occuring thus far. Temperatures will favor below normal values through the time frame which will include overnight lows falling to near the freezing mark. This would line up with frost/freeze climatological median dates so potential need for headlines next week cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Strong south winds continue this afternoon for terminals south of Highway 2. A cold front will then slide through the area this afternoon and evening, with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop along this boundary. Gusty, erratic winds and MVFR visibilities can be expected with the passage of these storms. Additionally MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the wake of the cold front/thunderstorms, and will persist into early tomorrow morning. Clouds will quickly clear from west to east by late tomorrow morning, with VFR expected through the end of the valid period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Brown ####018005442#### FXUS63 KDTX 031946 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A broken line of showers will slowly track east across the area this evening, with a few thunderstorms possible. Severe weather is not anticipated. - High pressure fills in Saturday supporting mainly dry conditions ahead of the next weak cold front to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to SE MI early Sunday morning. - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Broken line of showers currently extends from roughly Saginaw to Coldwater, with no observed lightning activity at issuance. Instability has been the main limiting factor thus far, with MLCAPE holding aob 250 J/kg and observed temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. Pockets of sunshine ahead of the line may increase instability enough through the evening to support a few embedded thunderstorms, but for now storm tops have struggled to even reach the freezing level. Slow eastward progression of the line (15-20 mph) and waning instability after 00z with loss of diurnal heating may prevent the line from even getting to easternmost portions of the cwa. Post-frontal subsidence introduces a deep layer of static stability to the column overnight, most prominent near the Tri Cities and Thumb. In these locations, patchy fog is expected especially as onshore flow emerges from Lake Huron. Elsewhere, weaker inversion and poor decoupling signal suggest stratus or more localized fog development Saturday morning. Otherwise, a drier day is in store Saturday for SE MI. Upstream, a surface low lifts toward Lake Superior which effectively draws the theta-e axis back into lower Michigan by Saturday afternoon which boosts temperatures into the mid 70s. The boost to boundary layer conditions will be enough to build surface-based instability, but any convective initiation will depend on localized convergence or lake breezes. So at this point, just a stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon. Broader convective coverage is expected early Sunday morning as the surface low sweeps another cold front across the cwa. Persistent lack of mid-upper level jet support and modest elevated instability suggest showers and a few thunderstorms to be possible Sunday morning before clearing out by mid-day. Mid-level ridging then holds steady through middle of next week ahead of a strong Pacific disturbance which will be the next opportunity for widespread precipitation. High temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s as an open Gulf and southwest flow keep conditions above average for early May standards. && .MARINE... A line of showers will continue to work east across the central Great Lakes this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not expected. Light northeast wind will occur behind the front tonight with mainly dry conditions as a localized area of high pressure builds in. Will monitor observational trends over Lake Huron where conditions may be favorable for areas of dense marine fog to form overnight into Saturday morning. Winds then gradually organize out of the southeast on Saturday as the high departs east. Southerly winds up to 20 knots develop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front with winds turning northwesterly behind it Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for the early work week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 AVIATION... A cold front on pace to advance from northwest to southeast across southeast Michigan mid afternoon through early evening. This front may ofer a modest focus for convective shower development during this time. While an isolated thunderstorm remains possible, the potential appears too limited to highlight given lack of greater instability. Cloud base generally at VFR within the pre-frontal environment, with evidence upstream for ceiling height to lower with time toward MVFR as low level moisture increases in the wake of the front this evening. Some degree of low cloud development and maintenance with an accompanying reduction in visibility expected overnight. Forecast will continue to highlight lower MVFR to IFR restrictions through the early-mid morning hours. For DTW/D21 Convection...Very low potential for a thunderstorm to develop between 21z and 01z. Limited instability precludes a mention in the forecast at this time. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms 21z-01z * Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening. Medium tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018003524#### FXUS63 KUNR 031946 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 146 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain shifting east out of the forecast area this evening. -Warmer and breezy this weekend. -Strong storm system early next week with the potential for several hazards: locally heavy rain Monday/Tuesday (northeastern Wyoming/northwestern South Dakota), high winds Tuesday/Wednesday, some snow for the Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Cold upper low across southern Canada continues to lift out of the region this afternoon. Southern periphery impulse along the stalled baroclinic zone has supported rain/snow across the southeast half today and will continue to shift ESE with the associated FGEN area. Expect rain to develop and shift SE across scentral SD this afternoon and taper off by evening. Skies will clear out across most places tonight with dry air spreading into the region. This will allow for a cool night with lows in the 20s/30s and some teens in the Black Hills. Warmer and dry Sat with highs generally in the 60s. Strong western CONUS upper trough will then shift east into the Rockies and support pressure falls over the region Sun. This will force increasing SE winds, becoming quite breezy by afternoon across the NW SD plains where adv winds are likely. Pos theta-e adv with a weakening cap may allow for a thunderstorm or two over NE WY in the afternoon. However, better chances for more widespread rains will arrive Sunday night with the main moisture surge and WAA. Strong storm system will then move onto the plains Monday, with the sfc trough/dryline shifting east across southwest through scentral SD. Current progs suggest that the severe threat will remain south and east of the FA, but if things slow down some, there may be a small window for severe weather across far scentral SD. Further west, deformation rains will spread into the region along with gusty NW winds. Adv to low end warning winds will be possible Monday across much of western SD, with the bulk of wind in NW SD. However, rains may limit mixing and gust potentials. As the upper low stalls and then slowly migrates east, winds, rain, and cool weather will persist through Wed night. Rain will change to snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills Monday night with some light accums possible. However, the better chance for snow accums looks to be Tue night into Wed when colder air advects into the region. Things will begin to slowly warm up and dry out toward next weekend as the upper low finally exits the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1113 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR/local IFR conditions will persist across the Black Hills and adjacent plains, through mid afternoon with light rain and snow. Areas of MVFR conditions will persist through mid afternoon mainly across the SD plains east of the Black Hills to KPHP and KD07. VFR conditions will continue elsewhere. Conditions over the Black Hills area and plains to the east will gradually improve to VFR by late afternoon and early this evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15 ####018006429#### FXUS63 KMPX 031948 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this evening through Saturday morning. - Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer temperatures expected Sunday. - Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5" while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong, negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating, widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains. After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR for all terminals to start while a cold front sits atop MN/WI. This front will become more active this evening through tonight as a disturbance aloft drifts southeast from southern Manitoba, helping spawn a swath of rain over the eastern Dakotas and western MN this afternoon. This swath will then slowly move east this evening through the overnight hours, bringing MVFR ceilings and visibilities to all terminals gradually from west to east. Chances for CB/TS are rather low, limited mainly to far southern MN (thus KMKT), so have opted to not include its mention in this set. Ceilings have the potential to drop to IFR but confidence not high enough to go that route. Rainfall looks to end around sunrise in western MN, by late morning in eastern MN and early afternoon in western WI. Winds will be breezy from the SW through this afternoon, then the progression of and convergence around the front will dictate winds through tonight before winds settle on northwesterly Saturday morning with speeds 10kts or less. KMSP...Main issue through this afternoon will be breezy winds from the 210-230 range, potentially causing crosswind concerns for the parallel runways. Once past that issue, come later this evening when winds become northerly, rain looks to move in around 08z, potentially as early as 06z, and continuing through daybreak. Chances fairly low for CB/TS at this point but will continue to evaluate for inclusion later. Rainfall amounts look to run 0.25"-0.50". Clearing then expected from late morning onward with NW winds. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there). && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...JPC HYDROLOGY...CCS ####018004360#### FXUS63 KTOP 031948 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -A line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across the area tonight into early Saturday morning. There is a low chance for a few damaging wind gusts. -A better chance for severe weather arrives Monday afternoon as a stronger system impacts the central US. All modes of severe weather will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Wyoming with southwest flow over KS. Surface obs show high pressure centered in eastern Iowa. South-southeast winds are beginning to transport higher dew points back into the area, which will continue as high pressure slides further northeast and low level flow increases this evening. The shortwave over WY will move eastward across the Dakotas this evening and tonight, bringing a cold front across KS. A linear complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Nebraska/Kansas near the boundary this evening, marching eastward into tonight. Instability will initially increase in eastern KS with the theta-e advection this evening, but CIN is also expected to increase as the night progresses and the storms approach. HREF MUCAPE values range from about 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front, with storms likely along or just behind the instability gradient. Shear still looks to range from about 30-35 kts, helping to maintain storm structure aloft. Given these parameters, strong winds and small hail will be the main concerns with storms as they move through tonight. Lingering post-frontal showers, and gusty northwest winds will be possible through Saturday morning before high pressure brings in a cooler and drier air mass. High temperatures Saturday afternoon look to run about ten degrees cooler than today. Another shortwave trough could then bring precipitation back to the forecast area, but this time from the south. That trough will move across TX and the Red River Valley, then into the Ozarks on Sunday. Instability and moisture will be more limited, so severe weather is not expected. Have also decreased POPs slightly with some deterministic models now keeping most of the area dry. Still think there is at least a slight chance for light QPF mainly south of I-70. A much stronger and more impactful system is still on track for the Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. A deep H5 trough looks to move across the Rockies and take on a negative tilt as it progresses over the High Plains Monday afternoon. Strong southerly flow will quickly transport moisture into the region ahead of a deepening surface low. Instability will build in the warm sector across central and eastern KS in response, with models showing anywhere between 2000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. With effective bulk shear possibly exceeding 40 kts and 0-3 km SRH above 200 m2/s2, another round of severe weather is anticipated. All modes will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe weather is not currently expected for the rest of next week, but a series of shortwave troughs embedded the the flow aloft could at least keep some POPs around through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Cloud cover will increase this afternoon. A few models are showing MVFR conditions, while others are not. Have kept VFR conditions through the afternoon for now, but will amend if CIGS are lower than currently expected. TS will be the next concern as a line of storms is expected to impact airports late tonight/early Saturday morning. Timing may need to be tweaked slightly, but current thinking for impact timing is the 09-12Z timeframe as storms move from west to east across the area. Wind gusts to 30kts can't be ruled out with storms, with isolated higher gusts. Lingering MVFR CIGS could occur through the morning hours before VFR returns late this period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey ####018007593#### FXUS62 KMHX 031948 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Sea breeze is marching inland, moderating temps behind it. Highs have already been reached for the coast, and inland temps currently in the mid to upper 80s will increase by a few degrees before coming back down. Back door cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front. Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front, with gusts of 20-20kts observed to our north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Fog will start to build east of hwy 17 as moisture advects from the east, and will spread westward through the night. Most dense, locally impactful fog is expected along and east of hwy 17. Stratus will will move in from the NE behind the back door cold front overnight. Muggy lows in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/... As of 330 PM Friday...VFR through the rest of the day with light winds, predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S. FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL060 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight. Current expectation is for fog to initiate along the coast, where moisture is the most impressive, and progress inland through the night. IFR visibilities are possible after 6Z for EWN and OAJ where fog will have the most residence time. We are also expecting low stratus to spread through much of the region tonight, teetering between MVFR and IFR levels. The most aggressive guidance suggests ceilings of 300ft, but have limited ceilings to 700ft for EWN and OAJ, with PGV and OAJ a bit higher at 900-1000ft. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the afternoon. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/RJ MARINE...SGK/RJ